# MN-02 Democratic nominee? In 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: Primaries US Elections HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/mn-02-democratic-nominee/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Matt Little to be the MN-02 Democratic nominee in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Incumbent Representative Craig is not endorsing any MN-02 successor.** - Major DFL labor groups have not endorsed any MN-02 candidate. - No MN-02 campaign has hired a proven primary-winning manager yet. - Superior grassroots support for named candidates cannot be determined now. - No named candidate shows strong differentiating factors; the field is open. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **14.4%** **probability** for 'Someone Else' versus 12c **market** price, implying an 8.3x payout due to a wide-open field. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Matt Little | 69.0% | 76.4% | Matt Little is a key candidate for the Democratic nomination in MN-02. | | Matt Klein | 12.0% | 14.4% | Matt Klein benefits from his State Senate role, providing name recognition and an established political network. | | Kaela Berg | 9.1% | 9.3% | Kaela Berg is an active candidate seeking the Democratic nomination in MN-02. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Matt Little | 69.0% | 76.4% | | Matt Klein | 12.0% | 14.4% | | Kaela Berg | 9.1% | 9.3% | - Expiration: November 3, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market has exhibited a distinct and aggressive downward trend. Opening at a 43.0% probability, the price briefly touched a high of 45.0% before experiencing a precipitous decline. The most significant price movement occurred on April 22, 2026, when the probability collapsed by 28.0 percentage points, falling from 45.0% to 17.0% in a single day. The price has since continued to drift lower, reaching its current level of 12.0%, which also represents the market's all-time low. This price action suggests a sudden, high-impact event fundamentally altered trader perceptions. The specific cause for the sharp drop on April 22 is not identifiable from the provided context. The market's previous high of 45.0% acted as a clear resistance level, which was followed by a breakdown through any prior support. The total traded volume of 1,788 contracts indicates that there has been meaningful activity over the market's lifespan, although recent volume appears low, suggesting the market has found a temporary equilibrium at this lower price. The chart indicates a powerful shift in market sentiment from viewing the outcome as a near-even possibility to now considering it highly improbable. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 April 22, 2026: 30.0pp spike Price increased from 43.0% to 73.0% **Outcome:** Matt Little **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 16, 2026: 41.6pp spike Price increased from 4.4% to 46.0% **Outcome:** Matt Little **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 15, 2026: 48.6pp drop Price decreased from 53.0% to 4.4% **Outcome:** Matt Little **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot A "Yes" resolution occurs if Matt Little wins the Democratic (DFL) Party nomination for the 2026 MN-02 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opens on July 2, 2025, at 10:00am EDT, and closes either upon Matt Little's nomination or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00am EST, with payout projected 30 minutes after closing. The outcome will be verified by the Democratic Party, and the event is noted as mutually exclusive. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Kaela Berg | 6% | 14% | 9.1% | $4,247.74 | $2,312.22 | | Matt Klein | 12% | 13% | 12% | $6,931.73 | $1,881.69 | | Matt Little | 69% | 70% | 69% | $11,079.03 | $2,870.31 | ## Has Rep. Angie Craig endorsed a successor for her MN-02 seat? Angie Craig Re-election Status | Not seeking re-election for U.S. House in 2026 [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/whos-mulling-a-run-for-angie-craigs-us-house-seat/601341021/) | Angie Craig Senate Bid Announcement | April 2025 [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/whos-mulling-a-run-for-angie-craigs-us-house-seat/601341021/) | MN-02 Successor Endorsement | No public endorsement or private signal [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/whos-mulling-a-run-for-angie-craigs-us-house-seat/601341021/) | **Rep** Rep. Angie Craig will vacate her House seat to pursue a Senate bid. She announced her official candidacy for the U.S. Senate in April 2025, confirming she will not seek re-election for her U.S. House seat in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District in 2026 [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/whos-mulling-a-run-for-angie-craigs-us-house-seat/601341021/). This decision will leave her current congressional seat open for the upcoming election cycle [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/whos-mulling-a-run-for-angie-craigs-us-house-seat/601341021/). Craig has not endorsed a preferred successor for MN-02. As of available web research, there is no indication that Rep. Angie Craig has publicly endorsed or privately signaled a preferred candidate among those seeking the Democratic nomination [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/whos-mulling-a-run-for-angie-craigs-us-house-seat/601341021/). State Senator Matt Klein, former Dakota County Commissioner Ruth Little, and Burnsville-Eagan-Savage School Board member Nic Berg are actively working to secure Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) delegates for the open seat [[^]](https://www.minnpost.com/national/washington/2026/04/klein-little-berg-dfl-delegates-for-2nd-district-seat/). Local political reporters covering the race for Craig's seat have not mentioned any involvement from her in endorsing or signaling a preference for any specific candidate [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/whos-mulling-a-run-for-angie-craigs-us-house-seat/601341021/). ## Can MN-02 Candidate Grassroots Support Be Directly Compared? Direct Donor Comparison Feasibility | Not definitively possible from provided sources [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MN/02/2026/) | Required Data for Analysis | Detailed itemized individual contribution filings from FEC [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MN/02/2026/) | Initial Step for Comparison | Identify relevant zip codes within Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota's_2nd_congressional_district) | **Determining superior grassroots support for candidates Klein, Little, or Berg is not possible from current sources** Determining superior grassroots support for candidates Klein, Little, or Berg is not possible from current sources. A direct comparison of unique individual donors residing within Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District (MN-02) specific zip codes cannot be definitively made from the provided web research results [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MN/02/2026/). The available sources offer general overviews for candidates and election data, but they lack pre-processed or aggregated statistics on unique individual donors specifically filtered by MN-02 residential zip codes. Therefore, a definitive conclusion on which candidate currently demonstrates superior grassroots support based on this specific metric is not possible with the provided research. Accurately assessing grassroots support requires extensive data extraction and analysis. To precisely determine which candidate—Klein, Little, or Berg (referring to Mike Berg, also identified as a candidate for the MN-02 Democratic primary) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Democratic_primary))—demonstrates superior grassroots support by the highest number of unique MN-02 individual donors, a multi-step data extraction and analysis process is necessary. This would involve first identifying all relevant zip codes within Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota's_2nd_congressional_district). Subsequently, one would need to access the detailed itemized individual contribution filings for each candidate's principal campaign committee directly from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MN/02/2026/). The granular data necessary for a direct numerical comparison of grassroots support based on this metric is not immediately derivable from the provided sources without extensive, manual or programmatic data extraction and processing. ## Have SEIU MN and AFL-CIO Endorsed 2026 MN-02 Nominee? SEIU MN State Council 2026 Endorsements | No candidate listed for MN-02 [[^]](https://www.seiumn.org/endorsements/seiu-2026-endorsements) | SEIU MN State Council 2025 Endorsements | No endorsement for MN-02 race [[^]](https://www.seiumn.org/endorsements/seiu-2025-endorsements) | MN AFL-CIO Angie Craig Endorsement | Issued October 2024 for re-election, not explicitly 2026 [[^]](https://minneapolisunions.org/news/mlr2024-10-19-cd2-angie-craig) | **Neither major DFL kingmaker has endorsed for 2026 MN-02** Neither major DFL kingmaker has endorsed for 2026 MN-02. As of the available research, neither the SEIU Minnesota State Council nor the Minnesota AFL-CIO has officially endorsed a candidate for the 2026 MN-02 Democratic nominee race. While Angie Craig received an endorsement from the Minnesota AFL-CIO for her re-election, this was issued in October 2024 and generally pertains to the 2024 election cycle, not specifically 2026 [[^]](https://minneapolisunions.org/news/mlr2024-10-19-cd2-angie-craig). SEIU's official pages currently lack specific 2026 endorsements. The official 2026 endorsements page for the SEIU Minnesota State Council does not currently list any candidates for the MN-02 district [[^]](https://www.seiumn.org/endorsements/seiu-2026-endorsements). Similarly, their 2025 endorsements page also does not show an endorsement for this particular race [[^]](https://www.seiumn.org/endorsements/seiu-2025-endorsements). Therefore, based on the provided sources, neither influential organization has made an official endorsement for the 2026 DFL nominee for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District. Endorsements from such groups are typically issued closer to the actual election cycle [[^]](https://www.seiumn.org/endorsements/seiu-2025-endorsements). ## Have MN-02 DFL 2026 Campaigns Hired Proven Primary Winning Managers? MN-02 DFL 2026 Candidates | Kaela Berg, Matt Klein, Matt Little [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Democratic_primary)) | Campaign Manager/Firm Details | Not available for listed candidates' campaigns [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Democratic_primary)) | Identified Non-Qualifying Roles | Alyse Maye Quade (MN DFL Coordinated Campaign Director) [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/alyse-maye-quade-7a811630), Daniel Cox (Erin Murphy for Senate Campaign Manager) [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/danielantoncox), Bowen Cochran (City Council Campaign Manager) [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/bowen-cochran-4124a0b9) | **Research indicates no current MN-02 Democratic nominee campaign for 2026 has hired a campaign manager or a primary media consulting firm with a documented record of winning at least one contested DFL primary for a federal or statewide office in Minnesota since 2018** Research indicates no current MN-02 Democratic nominee campaign for 2026 has hired a campaign manager or a primary media consulting firm with a documented record of winning at least one contested DFL primary for a federal or statewide office in Minnesota since 2018. The declared or potential DFL primary candidates for this district include Kaela Berg, Matt Klein, and Matt Little [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Democratic_primary)). However, the available sources do not provide details regarding the specific campaign managers or primary media consulting firms hired by any of these campaigns, nor do they confirm the specified winning record [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Democratic_primary)). Identified campaign professionals lack documented wins meeting specific criteria. While several individuals with campaign-related experience were identified through LinkedIn profiles, none of these roles demonstrate the specific winning record for a contested DFL primary for federal or statewide office since 2018 when considered with other available sources. For example, Alyse Maye Quade is listed in a party-level role as Coordinated Campaign Director at the Minnesota DFL Party [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/alyse-maye-quade-7a811630). Daniel Cox is noted as Campaign Manager for Erin Murphy for Senate, but information indicating a win in a contested DFL primary for federal or statewide office in Minnesota since 2018 is not provided in the available sources [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/danielantoncox). Furthermore, Bowen Cochran's experience as a Campaign Manager for a city council race does not meet the federal or statewide office criteria [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/bowen-cochran-4124a0b9). ## What are the latest updates for Minnesota's 2026 Governor Election? Walz's Initial Stance | Bullish about a third term [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/gov-tim-walz-bullish-about-re-election-chances-if-we-run-again-we-will-win/601392790/) | Walz's 2026 Decision | Will not seek re-election [[^]](https://www.c-span.org/program/campaign-2026/minnesota-governor-tim-walz-announces-he-will-not-seek-re-election/671173) | Klobuchar's 2026 Bid | Will run for Minnesota Governor [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/01/05/politics/amy-klobuchar-tim-walz-minnesota-governor) | **Governor Walz initially showed confidence but later opted against re-election** Governor Walz initially showed **confidence** but later opted against re-election. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz initially expressed **confidence** in seeking a third term, stating he was "bullish" about his re-election chances [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/gov-tim-walz-bullish-about-re-election-chances-if-we-run-again-we-will-win/601392790/). However, Walz later announced he would not seek re-election for governor in 2026, creating an open gubernatorial race [[^]](https://www.c-span.org/program/campaign-2026/minnesota-governor-tim-walz-announces-he-will-not-seek-re-election/671173). Klobuchar pivoted to a gubernatorial bid; Ellison will seek re-election. Following Walz's decision, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, who had been "seriously considering" a gubernatorial bid [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/01/05/politics/amy-klobuchar-tim-walz-minnesota-governor), officially confirmed her intention to run for governor of Minnesota in 2026 [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/01/29/nx-s1-5680243/klobuchar-walz-minnesota-governor-midterm-election). Her decision marks a shift from her current U.S. Senate position to pursue the state's highest office [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/01/29/nx-s1-5680243/klobuchar-walz-minnesota-governor-midterm-election). Additionally, Attorney General Keith Ellison, another potential statewide candidate, decided against running for governor and announced he would instead seek re-election as Attorney General [[^]](https://www.kaxe.org/minnesota-news/2026-01-21/ellison-to-continue-campaign-for-reelection-as-attorney-general). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** November 03, 2026 - **Closes:** November 03, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/) - [How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?](/markets/elections/how-many-aipac-endorsed-candidates-will-lose-their-primaries/) - [Alaska Senate winner? (Person)](/markets/elections/us-elections/alaska-senate-winner-person/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.