# MD-05 Democratic nominee?

MD-05 (D)

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/md-05-democratic-nominee/

## Short Answer

**The model indicates Adrian Boafo as the most likely MD-05 Democratic nominee, though it assigns significantly lower odds at 38.4% compared to the market's 61.0%.** It suggests a more open primary, viewing Harry Dunn as a considerably stronger contender than current **market** prices reflect.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Harry Dunn holds a commanding financial lead over all opponents.** - Adrian Boafo demonstrates strong local support with key endorsements.
- Boafo's campaign significantly trails Dunn in cash-on-hand resources.
- Rushern Baker III has very limited campaign funds and few new endorsements.
- Most other candidates lack significant financial backing or notable support.
- An unsettled mood prevails among MD-05 Democratic primary voters.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** With a 0.0 percentage point gap, **model** and **market** align at **0.1%** (0c), despite Harry Dunn's overwhelming financial lead.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Adrian Boafo | 61.0% | 38.4% | Market higher by 22.6pp |
| Rushern Baker III | 14.0% | 7.7% | Market higher by 6.3pp |
| Quincy Bareebe | 2.0% | 2.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Adrian Boafo | 61.0% | 38.4% |
| Rushern Baker III | 14.0% | 7.7% |
| Quincy Bareebe | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| Harry Dunn | 14.0% | 34.2% |
| Wala Blegay | 5.2% | 5.4% |
| Nicole Williams | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| Heather Luper | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| Arthur Ellis | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| Terry Jackson | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| Mark Kenneth Arness | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Reuben Collins II | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ellis Colvin | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Elldwnia English | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Harry Jarin | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Walter Kirkland | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jerry Lightfoot | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| James Makle Jr. | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Leigha Messick | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Keith Salkowski | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kenneth Simons | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alexis Solis | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tracy Starr | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dave Sundberg | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Harold Tolbert | 0.1% | 0.1% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market exhibits a completely flat, sideways trend with no price movement since its inception. The probability has held constant at 0.1%, which is the lowest possible price point in the market. There have been no significant price spikes or drops to analyze. The absence of any price changes is directly attributable to the market's complete lack of trading activity.

The most critical observation from the chart is that the total volume traded is zero contracts. This indicates that no trades have been executed and the market is entirely illiquid. The 0.1% price does not reflect a consensus formed by buyers and sellers but rather the initial offer set when the market was created. Without any volume, there is no market conviction, and no support or resistance levels have been established.

The chart's data suggests a complete lack of engagement or speculation regarding the Democratic nominee for Maryland's 5th congressional district at this time. The floor price of 0.1% implies an extremely low probability of the predicted outcome, but more importantly, the zero volume indicates the market is dormant. The sentiment reflected is not one of active belief but rather one of total inactivity, with no traders currently willing to take a position on this distant electoral event.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 28, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 65.0%

**Outcome:** Adrian Boafo

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 24, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 69.0% to 57.0%

**Outcome:** Adrian Boafo

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 23, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 84.0% to 69.0%

**Outcome:** Adrian Boafo

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Adrian Boafo wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 MD-05 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on March 10, 2026, and closes either upon the outcome or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT. Outcomes are verified using the Democratic and Republican Party websites, and persons employed by Source Agencies are prohibited from trading.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Adrian Boafo | 58% | 61% | 61% | $8,810.12 | $3,386.61 |
| Arthur Ellis | 0.1% | 2% | 3% | $97 | $91 |
| Alexis Solis | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Dave Sundberg | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Ellis Colvin | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Elldwnia English | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Harry Dunn | 11% | 18% | 14% | $317 | $309 |
| Harry Jarin | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Heather Luper | 0.1% | 3.9% | 2% | $129 | $96 |
| Harold Tolbert | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Jerry Lightfoot | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| James Makle Jr. | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Keith Salkowski | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Kenneth Simons | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Leigha Messick | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Mark Kenneth Arness | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Nicole Williams | 0.1% | 2% | 2% | $134 | $80 |
| Quincy Bareebe | 1.3% | 2% | 2% | $506.5 | $480 |
| Rushern Baker III | 9.9% | 10% | 14% | $958 | $558 |
| Reuben Collins II | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Terry Jackson | 0.1% | 2% | 3% | $97 | $91 |
| Tracy Starr | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |
| Wala Blegay | 0.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | $230.11 | $197.11 |
| Walter Kirkland | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $66 | $66 |

## How Do MD-05 Democratic Primary Candidates' Finances Compare?

Harry Dunn Cash-on-Hand | $1,870,213 [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier) |
Rushern Baker III Cash-on-Hand | $121,144 [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier) |
Adrian Boafo Cash-on-Hand | $162,307 [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier) |

**Harry Dunn significantly outperforms rivals in fundraising, securing a substantial financial advantage**

Harry Dunn significantly outperforms rivals in fundraising, securing a substantial financial advantage. Recent FEC filings show former Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn has amassed approximately **$2,427,330** in total contributions, with a formidable **$1,870,213** in cash-on-hand [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier). This war chest positions Dunn with a clear advantage for a robust final advertising blitz and extensive get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations ahead of the June 23, 2026, primary [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/04/24/quincy-bareebe-d-adrian-boafo-d-harry-dunn-d-and-21-other-candidates-are-running-in-the-democratic-primary-for-marylands-5th-congressional-district-on-june-23-2026/). His fundraising total is more than double that of all other candidates combined, clearly placing him at the top of the money tier within Maryland's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier).

Rushern Baker III and Adrian Boafo form a distinct second financial tier. In comparison to Dunn, former Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker III has reported approximately **$156,086** in contributions and **$121,144** in cash-on-hand [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier). Prince George's County Councilman Adrian Boafo has raised more, with around **$300,750** in contributions and **$162,307** in cash-on-hand [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier). While these amounts provide some capacity for campaigning, they are considerably dwarfed by Dunn's resources, limiting their ability to match his spending on late-stage advertising or extensive ground game efforts [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier). The remaining 21 candidates in the crowded 24-person field possess negligible funds, further highlighting the significant financial gap across the field [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier).

Financial disparities deeply impact candidates' capacity for a strong final campaign. The stark difference in cash-on-hand indicates a clear advantage for Harry Dunn in sustaining a visible campaign through the crucial final weeks. His substantial reserves provide the flexibility to invest heavily in media buys, digital advertising, and comprehensive GOTV infrastructure. While Baker and Boafo retain some financial capacity, their relatively smaller war chests suggest they must be more strategic and efficient with their remaining funds to compete effectively against Dunn's well-resourced campaign in the crucial final push [[^]](https://themarylandwire.substack.com/p/cd5-top-of-the-money-tier).

## Which Influential Figures Endorsed Adrian Boafo for MD-05?

Former U.S. House Leader Endorsement | Steny Hoyer [[^]](https://www.prismedia.ai/news/steny-hoyer-endorses-adrian-boafo-to-succeed-him-in-md-5) |
State Legislative Endorsements | Multiple State Senators and Delegates [[^]](https://www.adrianboafo.com/endorsements) |
Key Labor Endorsements | Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 89, IAFF Local 1619 [[^]](https://www.adrianboafo.com/endorsements) |

**Delegate Adrian Boafo has secured significant early political endorsements and campaign funding**

Delegate Adrian Boafo has secured significant early political endorsements and campaign funding. On the first day of his campaign for the MD-05 Democratic primary, Boafo announced 14 endorsements and raised **$100,000** [[^]](https://www.adrianboafo.com/campaignnews/del.-adrian-boafo%E2%**80%**99s-campaign-for-congress-nets-14-endorsements,-secures-**$100,000**-on-day-one). A notable endorsement comes from former U.S. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, who has publicly backed Boafo as his successor [[^]](https://www.prismedia.ai/news/steny-hoyer-endorses-adrian-boafo-to-succeed-him-in-md-5). Additional political support includes State Senators Michael Jackson, Joanne Benson, Alonzo Washington, and Mary Washington, alongside Delegates Karen Tregoning, Edith Patterson, Jennifer White, Kevin O'Toole, Jamila Woods, Kris Valderrama, Marvin Holmes Jr., Nicole Williams, Veronica Turner, and Jeffries [[^]](https://www.adrianboafo.com/endorsements).

Boafo also garnered support from county council members and labor organizations. Within the Prince George's County Council, he has received endorsements from Councilmembers Krystal Oriadha and Calvin Hawkins [[^]](https://www.adrianboafo.com/endorsements). Beyond individual elected officials, Boafo has secured backing from key labor organizations such as the Fraternal Order of Police, Prince George's County Lodge 89, and IAFF Local 1619, which represents Prince George's County Firefighters [[^]](https://www.adrianboafo.com/endorsements).

Key county power brokers and major unions have not yet endorsed any candidate. The provided research does not indicate endorsements from County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, the PG County Democratic Central Committee, or major unions like SEIU 1199 for any candidate in this particular race [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/md-05-democratic-primary-winner).

## When is the MD-05 Democratic Primary, and are ad buys tracked?

MD-05 Democratic Primary Date | June 23, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Democratic_primary)) |
Ad Buy Data for May 14 Primary | Not available [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/17/8m-race-emerges-as-hoyer-era-ends-in-5th-district/) |
Overall Race Spending Projection | Could exceed $8 million (April 2026 report) [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/17/8m-race-emerges-as-hoyer-era-ends-in-5th-district/) |

**The primary date specified for Maryland's 5th Congressional District is incorrect**

The primary date specified for Maryland's 5th Congressional District is incorrect. The Democratic primary for Maryland's 5th Congressional District is officially scheduled for June 23, 2026, not May 14 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Democratic_primary)). Consequently, the premise of inquiring about media ad buys in the two weeks preceding a May 14 primary for this specific race does not align with the established primary date, and therefore, no relevant data for that period and election could be found.

Specific ad spending data for individual campaigns is not available. Based on the provided research, there is no detailed data on broadcast and cable television ad buys for the MD-05 Democratic primary in the Washington, D.C. television **market** during the two-week period preceding May 14. While the race overall is projected to be substantial, with one report from April 2026 indicating it could exceed **$8** million, the available sources do not specify which individual campaigns are demonstrably outspending others on television spots within the requested timeframe and **market** [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/17/8m-race-emerges-as-hoyer-era-ends-in-5th-district/). The sources primarily discuss overall fundraising or general race dynamics rather than granular ad spending data for this specific context.

## How is Donor Support Distributed in MD-05 Democratic Primary?

Adrian Boafo Local Donors | 88% from within MD-05 Congressional District [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/22/fundraising-name-recognition-shape-5th-district-race/) |
Harry Dunn Donor Base | Broader donor base, significant portion from outside district [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/22/fundraising-name-recognition-shape-5th-district-race/) |
Rushern Baker III Donor Data | FEC donor geography not yet available [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/22/fundraising-name-recognition-shape-5th-district-race/) |

**Candidates exhibit varied geographic donor support in the MD-05 primary**

Candidates exhibit varied geographic donor support in the MD-05 primary. State Delegate Adrian Boafo from Prince George's County has demonstrated strong local backing, with **88%** of his donors residing within the 5th District [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/22/fundraising-name-recognition-shape-5th-district-race/). In contrast, Harry Dunn, who leads in fundraising, draws from a broader donor base, with a significant portion of contributions originating from outside the district, indicating a more national profile [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/22/fundraising-name-recognition-shape-5th-district-race/). While former Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker III is anticipated to leverage his established local network, specific FEC data on the geographic origin of his current campaign's donors was not available in the provided reports [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/22/fundraising-name-recognition-shape-5th-district-race/).

Crowded field may fragment Prince George's County vote. Local media reports suggest that the numerous candidates in the Democratic primary could divide the vote in Prince George's County, potentially preventing any single candidate from consolidating this critical electoral base [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/22/fundraising-name-recognition-shape-5th-district-race/). This scenario might create an opportunity for a contender who can secure substantial support in the smaller, yet electorally significant, Anne Arundel or Calvert counties to emerge as a competitive candidate [[^]](https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/22/fundraising-name-recognition-shape-5th-district-race/).

## What is the Mood in Maryland's 5th District Democratic Primary?

Primary Election Date | June 23, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Democratic_primary)) |
Democratic Mood | Unsettled regarding current candidate field [[^]](https://realcontextnews.com/maryland-u-s-democratic-primary-debate-raises-questions-on-frontrunners-partys-readiness-to-take-on-hogan-can-frydenborg-emerge-as-third-option/) |
Frontrunner Scrutiny | Readiness and strategic approach questioned for Jackson, Braveboy [[^]](https://realcontextnews.com/maryland-u-s-democratic-primary-debate-raises-questions-on-frontrunners-partys-readiness-to-take-on-hogan-can-frydenborg-emerge-as-third-option/) |

**Recent candidate forums and debates indicate an unsettled mood among Democrats regarding the current field for Maryland's 5th Congressional District [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Democratic_primary))**

Recent candidate forums and debates indicate an unsettled mood among Democrats regarding the current field for Maryland's 5th Congressional District [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Democratic_primary)). A specific Democratic Primary Debate, held in advance of the June 23, 2026 election, raised questions about the readiness and strategic approaches of frontrunners such as State Senator Michael Jackson and former Prince George's County State's Attorney Aisha Braveboy [[^]](https://realcontextnews.com/maryland-u-s-democratic-primary-debate-raises-questions-on-frontrunners-partys-readiness-to-take-on-hogan-can-frydenborg-emerge-as-third-option/). Additionally, contender Delegate Krystal Oriadha faced persistent inquiries concerning her campaign’s operational capacity [[^]](https://realcontextnews.com/maryland-u-s-democratic-primary-debate-raises-questions-on-frontrunners-partys-readiness-to-take-on-hogan-can-frydenborg-emerge-as-third-option/).

No definitive gaffes or breakout performances emerged from these recent events. During the debate, no frontrunner committed a significant gaffe, nor were there confirmed breakout performances by lesser-known candidates reported [[^]](https://realcontextnews.com/maryland-u-s-democratic-primary-debate-raises-questions-on-frontrunners-partys-readiness-to-take-on-hogan-can-frydenborg-emerge-as-third-option/). However, Stephen Frydenborg is actively attempting to establish himself as a "third option" by emphasizing progressive ideals and grassroots mobilization [[^]](https://realcontextnews.com/maryland-u-s-democratic-primary-debate-raises-questions-on-frontrunners-partys-readiness-to-take-on-hogan-can-frydenborg-emerge-as-third-option/). A candidate forum held in Waldorf also provided opportunities for various candidates to present their platforms without reports of major gaffes or definitive standout performances that significantly altered the race [[^]](https://www.somdnews.com/news/local/destination-congress-democrat-hopefuls-gather-in-waldorf/article_f9cdf28d-ebf7-475c-b856-9764a6357d6b.html). The Charles County Democratic Central Committee plans to host additional forums throughout 2026 [[^]](https://www.charlescountydems.org/democratic-central-committee-forums-2026/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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