# KY-06 Democratic nominee?

KY-06 (D)

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/ky-06-democratic-nominee/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Cherlynn Stevenson as the KY-06 Democratic nominee, with the model at 41.7% compared to the market's 57.0%.** Both the **model** and the **market** nonetheless identify Cherlynn Stevenson as the most likely nominee.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - David Kloiber shows overwhelming financial advantage through significant self-funding.** - Cherlynn Stevenson faces critically weak finances, severely limiting campaign resources.
- No specific endorsement details available for either Democratic primary candidate.
- Campaign ad spending information for the May 21 primary is currently absent.
- Publicly available polling data for the KY-06 primary does not exist.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** and **market** align at **0.1%** for Kloiber, whose financial advantage could yield a 1000x payout multiple at 0c.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jimmy Ausbrooks | 0.1% | 0.1% | Jimmy Ausbrooks currently lacks significant campaign momentum or fundraising. |
| Zach Dembo | 30.0% | 31.8% | Zach Dembo is a strong contender with significant support in the primary election. |
| Cherlynn Stevenson | 57.0% | 41.7% | Cherlynn Stevenson is a leading candidate with strong support in the primary. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Jimmy Ausbrooks | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Zach Dembo | 30.0% | 31.8% |
| Cherlynn Stevenson | 57.0% | 41.7% |
| Harvey Carroll | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| David Kloiber | 8.0% | 23.7% |
| Erin Petrey | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| Corey Edwards | 0.1% | 0.1% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This analysis examines the price action for the "KY-06 Democratic nominee?" prediction market. The market opened with a YES probability of 1.0% and experienced its only significant price movement within the first few days, dropping to 0.1%. Since that initial drop, the price has remained completely flat, establishing a sideways trend at the lowest possible price. This indicates that early market participants quickly established a consensus that the outcome is extremely unlikely, and no subsequent activity has challenged that view. The lack of available news or specific developments suggests this initial price discovery was not driven by an external event, but rather by the market's baseline assessment of the political landscape.

The trading volume in this market is exceptionally low, with only 1,000 contracts traded in total. This minimal volume suggests a lack of trader interest and very low conviction, which is common in markets perceived to have a near-certain outcome. The price chart has established a firm support level at the 0.1% floor, which is the lowest price a contract can have. The initial price of 1.0% acts as the only historical resistance, though the market has shown no momentum to retest that level.

Overall, the chart reflects an extremely bearish market sentiment. The combination of a price flatlining at its absolute minimum and negligible trading volume indicates a strong consensus among the few participants that this contract will resolve to NO. The market assigns virtually no chance to this particular outcome occurring, and there is no evidence of any competing sentiment or speculation to the contrary.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if Cherlynn Stevenson wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 KY-06 House seat, as verified by the Democratic and Republican Parties; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on March 29, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT, and will close after the outcome occurs, with projected payout 30 minutes later. If the nomination does not happen, the market will close by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 am EDT, and employees of the source agencies are prohibited from trading.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Corey Edwards | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | $794 | $547 |
| Cherlynn Stevenson | 56% | 63% | 57% | $2,016.34 | $881 |
| David Kloiber | 1.5% | 8% | 8% | $999 | $547 |
| Erin Petrey | 0.1% | 6% | 1% | $877 | $547 |
| Harvey Carroll | 0.1% | 7.3% | 1% | $1,456 | $547 |
| Jimmy Ausbrooks | 0% | 1% | 0.1% | $5,443 | $3,472 |
| Zach Dembo | 29% | 30% | 30% | $2,575.14 | $2,445.14 |

## Who Has Stronger Campaign Finances: David Kloiber or Cherlynn Stevenson?

Kloiber Total Receipts | $1,570,305.81 (as of year-end 2023) [[^]](https://www.forwardky.com/heres-the-latest-finance-numbers-for-our-fed-elections/) |
Kloiber Cash on Hand | $1,053,744.02 (as of year-end 2023) [[^]](https://www.forwardky.com/heres-the-latest-finance-numbers-for-our-fed-elections/) |
Stevenson Cash on Hand | $57,485.64 (as of year-end 2023) [[^]](https://www.forwardky.com/heres-the-latest-finance-numbers-for-our-fed-elections/) |

**David Kloiber's campaign shows strong financial viability per recent filings**

David Kloiber's campaign shows strong financial viability per recent filings. According to the most recent quarterly FEC filings, Kloiber reported total receipts of **$1,570,305.81**. His campaign maintained a substantial cash on hand balance of **$1,053,744.02** as of December 31, 2023 [[^]](https://www.forwardky.com/heres-the-latest-finance-numbers-for-our-fed-elections/). A significant portion of these funds, specifically **$1,400,000,** originated from personal contributions Kloiber made to his own campaign [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/candidates/David%20Kloiber-H6KY06168/net-worth).

Cherlynn Stevenson's campaign reported significantly lower financial metrics. In comparison, Stevenson's campaign ended 2023 with **$57,485.64** in cash on hand [[^]](https://www.forwardky.com/heres-the-latest-finance-numbers-for-our-fed-elections/). While comprehensive total receipts for Stevenson for the entire cycle are not detailed in the provided sources, it is reported that her campaign raised approximately **$80,000** during the fourth quarter of 2023 [[^]](https://www.forwardky.com/heres-the-latest-finance-numbers-for-our-fed-elections/). Overall, David Kloiber's campaign exhibits a significantly stronger financial position, reporting over **$1.5** million in total receipts and more than **$1** million in cash on hand, substantially surpassing Cherlynn Stevenson's reported financial figures [[^]](https://www.forwardky.com/heres-the-latest-finance-numbers-for-our-fed-elections/).

## Which KY-06 Democratic Candidate Has Secured Key Endorsements?

Local AFL-CIO Endorsement | Not available in research [N/A] [[^]](https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article314541740.html?taid=6980f1e4fb85910001b96b2b) |
Fayette County Democratic Leadership Endorsement | Not available in research [N/A] [[^]](https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article314541740.html?taid=6980f1e4fb85910001b96b2b) |
Majority Democratic State Legislator Endorsement | Not available in research [N/A] [[^]](https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article314541740.html?taid=6980f1e4fb85910001b96b2b) |

**No specific endorsement information was found in the available research**

No specific endorsement information was found in the available research. The provided research sources do not contain details identifying which Democratic candidate for KY-06 has secured endorsements from key Lexington-based (Fayette County) Democratic organizations and elected officials. This includes the local AFL-CIO chapter, the Fayette County Democratic Party leadership, or a majority of the Democratic state legislators representing the area. Specific facts and data points regarding these candidate endorsements are not available within the analyzed text.

Key local Democratic organization websites were identified but inaccessible. While relevant sources such as the Fayette County Democratic Party website [[^]](https://fayettedemocrats.org/) and The Lexington Democratic Club's endorsed candidates list [[^]](https://www.lexclub.org/endorsed-candidates-2026) were identified, their content was not accessible within the provided research results. Consequently, it is not possible to determine if any candidate has successfully consolidated these specific endorsements based on the available information.

The research primarily focused on fundraising and prediction markets. The available research predominantly focused on other aspects of the KY-06 race. This included fundraising activities for candidates such as Zach Dembo [[^]](https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article314541740.html?taid=6980f1e4fb85910001b96b2b), and discussions surrounding prediction **market** odds related to the race [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ky-06-house-election-winner), rather than providing details on organizational or official endorsements.

## Which Campaign Leads in Ad Spending for May 21 Primary?

TV Ad Buy Information | Specific expenditure data for largest TV ad reservations not provided (FCC Public Inspection Files [[^]](https://interactive.whas11.com/fcc/) needed). |
Digital Ad Buy Information | Specific expenditure data for largest digital ad reservations not provided (Meta Ad Library [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/ads/library) needed). |
Campaign Strategy Assessment | Superior strategy for late-breaking name ID could not be inferred due to unprovided data [[^]](https://interactive.whas11.com/fcc/). |

**The research could not identify the largest television and digital ad buy**

The research could not identify the largest television and digital ad buy. This was due to the absence of specific advertising expenditure data from FCC political advertising filings and the Meta Ad Library in the provided research results. Consequently, assessing a superior strategy for building late-breaking name ID for the final three weeks before the May 21 primary was not possible [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(May_19_Democratic_primary)).

Television ad buys require examination of FCC public files. To determine these, an analyst would need to scrutinize the political files within the FCC's Public Inspection Files for TV and radio stations serving the Lexington media **market**. These files contain detailed contracts for ad placements, costs, and schedules. For example, files for TV Station WHAS-TV [[^]](https://interactive.whas11.com/fcc/) and FM Station WLKT [[^]](https://publicfiles.fcc.gov/fm-profile/WLKT/political-files/2023/non-candidate-issue-ads/34ae3361-16d3-bdca-f80d-1914ff42d925) would be examined for any reservations made approximately from April 29 to May 21.

Digital ad buys are tracked via the Meta Ad Library. This library [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/ads/library) serves as the primary resource for tracking campaign spending in the digital realm. An analysis of ads associated with Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Democratic primary [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(May_19_Democratic_primary)) would involve filtering for expenditures and ad creatives from competing campaigns during the specified three-week timeframe. However, the lack of this extracted data prevented a direct comparison of total ad buys and an assessment of which campaign demonstrated a superior strategy for building late-breaking name ID.

## Is there specific polling data for KY-06 Democratic primary in Fayette County?

Fayette Co. KY-06 Primary Polling | No statistically significant lead identified (based on provided sources) [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2026-poll-barr-maintains-edge-in-gop-primary-as-booker-gains-among-democratic-voters/) |
KY 2026 Democratic Voter Trends | Emerson Polling noted "Booker Gains Among Democratic Voters" [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2026-poll-barr-maintains-edge-in-gop-primary-as-booker-gains-among-democratic-voters/) |
Related KY-06 Election Resources | Prediction market, general election details, past 2024 primary results [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ky-06-house-election-winner) |

**No specific polling data exists for Fayette County's KY-06 primary**

No specific polling data exists for Fayette County's KY-06 primary. There is no publicly available or leaked campaign polling data showing a candidate with a statistically significant lead specifically within Fayette County for the KY-06 Democratic primary. Fayette County accounts for the vast majority of the Democratic primary electorate in the district. The existing sources provide general election context and broader polling information but lack the requested granular county-level detail for this specific primary race [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2026-poll-barr-maintains-edge-in-gop-primary-as-booker-gains-among-democratic-voters/).

Existing polls offer broader context, lacking county-level specifics. For instance, an Emerson Polling release on Kentucky 2026 voter trends noted "Booker Gains Among Democratic Voters." However, the publicly available summary of this poll does not provide results specifically for the KY-06 Democratic primary, nor does it offer a county-level breakdown for Fayette County within any congressional district race [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2026-poll-barr-maintains-edge-in-gop-primary-as-booker-gains-among-democratic-voters/). Other research sources include a prediction **market** for the KY-06 election [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ky-06-house-election-winner), general election details from Ballotpedia [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(May_19_Democratic_primary)), and past 2024 primary results for the district [[^]](https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/kentucky/democratic-party/us-house-district-6). RealClearPolitics also presents polling for the 2026 Kentucky Senate Democratic primary, which is a different contest than the KY-06 House primary [[^]](https://www90.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2026/senate/ky/2026_kentucky_senate_democratic_primary-8885.html). Therefore, the research provided does not contain specific polling indicating a statistically significant lead within Fayette County for the KY-06 Democratic primary.

## Can KY-06 Democratic Primary Financial Reports Reveal Burn Rates?

Pre-election Report Purpose | Crucial for disclosing campaign financial activity [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/filing-reports/pre-election-reports/) |
Mandatory Report Citations | Regularly issued by FEC for non-filing [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/updates/fec-cites-committees-for-failure-to-file-12-day-pre-primary-financial-report-may-10-2024/) |
Recent Citation Examples | Notifications in May 2024 for various elections [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/updates/fec-cites-committees-for-failure-to-file-12-day-pre-primary-financial-report-may-31-2024/) |

**Specific financial data prevents analysis of KY-06 Democratic primary spending**

Specific financial data prevents analysis of KY-06 Democratic primary spending. The provided research does not contain specific financial data, spending strategies, or burn rates for candidates in the KY-06 Democratic primary election's 12-day pre-primary FEC reports. Consequently, it is not possible to identify which campaign demonstrates the highest 'burn rate' on non-media expenses, such as staff and field operations, or to infer their Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts from the given sources. An analysis of spending strategies or burn rates is impossible due to the absence of detailed expenditure breakdowns for any specific KY-06 Democratic nominee campaigns.

Mandatory FEC pre-election reports are crucial, yet specific data is missing. These reports, including the one due 12 days before an election, are essential for disclosing campaign financial activity shortly before voters cast their ballots [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/filing-reports/pre-election-reports/). The Federal Election Commission (FEC) regularly cites committees for failing to file these mandatory 12-day Pre-Primary Financial Reports, as evidenced by notifications in May 2024 for various elections [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/updates/fec-cites-committees-for-failure-to-file-12-day-pre-primary-financial-report-may-10-2024/). However, despite these filing requirements, the available research does not include the necessary detailed financial disclosures for the relevant KY-06 candidates to allow for an analysis of their spending strategies or burn rates.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.