# How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

Before Nov 3, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/how-many-senate-democrats-will-lose-their-primary-in-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect 0 Senate Democrats to lose their primary in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Two moderate Democratic senators are up for re-election in 2026.** - Financial data on declining donor metrics for incumbents is currently unavailable.
- No Democratic incumbent will face coordinated progressive opposition by end-2025.
- Older Senator Markey maintains strong approval among primary voters.
- No strong primary challengers exist for 2026 Democratic incumbents yet.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **83.9%** **probability** versus 83c **market** price, implying a 1.2x payout, as no challengers are identified yet.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 0 | 83.0% | 83.9% | Model higher by 0.9pp |
| 1 | 9.0% | 9.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.9% | Model higher by 0.0pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 0 | 83.0% | 83.9% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 9.1% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 3.1% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market, which resolves to '0', has shown highly stable price action, suggesting a strong consensus that no incumbent Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026. The price has traded within a very narrow five-point range, from a low of 78% to a high of 83%. The overall trend is sideways, with the current price of 83% testing the top of this range, which has acted as a resistance level. The bottom of the range, around 78%, has served as a consistent support level. Given the lack of any provided news or external context, the minor fluctuations within this band are likely attributable to standard market activity rather than specific catalysts or events.

The total trading volume of 664 contracts is relatively low for a market of this nature, indicating limited but consistent participation. The low volume, combined with the tight price range, suggests that while conviction is high among current participants, the market has not yet attracted broader interest or seen events that would challenge the prevailing sentiment. The price stability at a high probability level (consistently near or above 80%) implies that the market is confident in the status quo, pricing in a very low likelihood of a primary upset for any Democratic senator in this cycle.

## Contract Snapshot

Here's a summary of the contract rules:

1.  **YES resolution:** The market resolves to "Yes" if exactly zero Democratic Senate members lose their primary in 2026. This outcome is determined by primary losses occurring before November 3, 2026.
2.  **NO resolution:** The market resolves to "No" if one or more Democratic Senate members lose their primary in 2026 before November 3, 2026.
3.  **Key dates/deadlines:** The market opened on January 23, 2026, at 4:00 PM EST. The outcome is based on events prior to November 3, 2026, with the market closing by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST if not resolved earlier.
4.  **Special settlement conditions:** A Democratic Senate member is considered to have lost their primary if they are an incumbent running for re-election to their current office and party, contesting a 2026 primary for a full term, and lose to another candidate. In "top-two" or non-partisan primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the general election. The market will be resolved using information from specified news sources and the Federal Register and may close early if the outcome becomes mathematically certain.

## Market Discussion

Traders largely anticipate that zero Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026, with the market currently pricing this outcome at 83%. Discussions for potential losses highlight specific senators like Chuck Schumer, Cory Booker, and Markey, with the Colorado race also mentioned as one to watch. However, the dominant sentiment dismisses general anti-Democrat arguments as irrelevant to primary challenges, reinforcing the strong market consensus for no incumbent losses.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 0 | 81% | 83% | 83% | $32,888.94 | $20,308.94 |
| 1 | 9% | 10% | 9% | $20,190.28 | $11,123.12 |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6% | 3.1% | $15,230.77 | $10,414 |
| 3 | 0.2% | 1% | 1% | $15,425.61 | $12,364 |
| 4 | 0.4% | 1% | 2.9% | $15,867.55 | $12,824 |

## Which Democratic Senators Show Moderate Voting Records for Re-election?

Senator Gary Peters DW-NOMINATE Score | -0.29 [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology) |
Senator Ben Ray Luján DW-NOMINATE Score | -0.39 [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology) |
DW-NOMINATE Score Range | -1 (most liberal) to +1 (most conservative) [[^]](https://voteview.com/articles/data_help_members) |

**Two Democratic senators up for re-election in 2026 exhibit notable moderation relative to their states' leanings**

Two Democratic senators up for re-election in 2026 exhibit notable moderation relative to their states' leanings. Senators Gary Peters of Michigan and Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico demonstrate DW-NOMINATE scores that are significantly more moderate than both their state's Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and the voting records of Democratic House members from districts within their states that lean D+10 or greater [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology). DW-NOMINATE scores quantify ideological positions, ranging from -1 for the most liberal to +1 for the most conservative, with scores closer to zero indicating greater moderation [[^]](https://voteview.com/articles/data_help_members).

Senator Gary Peters demonstrates a centrist voting record in a slightly Democratic state. His DW-NOMINATE score is -0.29 [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology), despite Michigan having a PVI of D+2 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2025-partisan-voting-index/state-map-and-list). This score appears particularly centrist when contrasted with Democratic House members from Michigan's strongly liberal districts (D+10 or greater), such as Rashida Tlaib, who scores -0.50, and Shri Thanedar, at -0.45 [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology). Senator Peters' score is approximately 0.185 points closer to the ideological center than the average of these strongly liberal House Democrats from his state [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology).

Senator Ben Ray Luján also shows moderation despite New Mexico's strong Democratic lean. He has a DW-NOMINATE score of -0.39 [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology), even though New Mexico is a solidly Democratic state with a PVI of D+7 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2025-partisan-voting-index/state-map-and-list). This score reflects a more moderate stance compared to Congresswoman Melanie Stansbury, who represents New Mexico's NM-01 district with a PVI of D+10 and a DW-NOMINATE score of -0.45 [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology). Senator Luján's score is 0.06 points more moderate than Congresswoman Stansbury's, underscoring a pattern of moderation relative to his state's strong Democratic inclination [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2024/party-senate-democrat/ideology).

## Can We Identify Senate Democrats With Declining Donor & Cash Metrics?

Small-dollar donor data (Q2 2025 & Q2 2019) | Not available for individual incumbent Senate Democrats [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2q-2025-senate-and) |
Total cash-on-hand data (Q2 2025 & Q2 2019) | Not available for individual incumbent Senate Democrats [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2q-2025-senate-and) |
Identification of incumbents with >30% decline | Cannot be performed due to lack of specific data [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2q-2025-senate-and) |

**The research indicates that the financial data necessary to identify incumbent Senate Democrats meeting the specified criteria is currently unavailable**

The research indicates that the financial data necessary to identify incumbent Senate Democrats meeting the specified criteria is currently unavailable. To answer the question, granular, candidate-level financial information is required. This includes the exact number of unique small-dollar donors (under **$200**) and the total cash-on-hand for both Q2 2025 and Q2 2019 for each incumbent Senate Democrat. Without these precise individual figures, it is not possible to calculate the required percentage declines.

Available general sources do not provide granular incumbent data. While general campaign finance sources, such as "The Downballot's 2Q 2025 Senate and House fundraising reports roundup" [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2q-2025-senate-and) and the broader "Campaign finance data | FEC" [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/), are relevant to campaign finance, the provided research does not contain the detailed individual data points needed for this specific analysis. These sources do not provide the exact number of unique small-dollar donors and cash-on-hand figures for each incumbent for both the Q2 2025 and Q2 2019 reporting periods. Consequently, it is not possible to determine which senators experienced a greater than **30%** decline in both unique small-dollar donors and total cash-on-hand.

## Will Democratic Incumbents Face Coordinated Progressive Opposition by EOY 2025?

Coordinated Opposition Campaigns | None against Democratic incumbents by EOY 2025, based on specific criteria [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/working-families-fetterman-challenger-2028-20251118.html) |
Working Families Party Pledge | Pledged to support a primary challenger against Senator John Fetterman by November 18, 2025, but not a coordinated campaign naming a declared challenger [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/working-families-fetterman-challenger-2028-20251118.html) |
Other Group Endorsements | Justice Democrats and WFP have listed endorsed candidates or announced 2026 cycle endorsements, but not as part of a joint opposition against an incumbent with a declared challenger by EOY 2025 [[^]](https://justicedemocrats.com/candidates/) |

**No Democratic incumbent is expected to face a defined coordinated opposition by 2025**

No Democratic incumbent is expected to face a defined coordinated opposition by 2025. By the end of 2025, no Democratic incumbent is projected to have faced a coordinated public opposition campaign as specifically defined by the research. This definition requires joint press releases or fundraising emails from at least two of Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, or the Working Families Party, explicitly naming a declared primary challenger against an incumbent [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/working-families-fetterman-challenger-2028-20251118.html).

The Working Families Party's Fetterman pledge falls short of criteria. While the Working Families Party (WFP) has pledged to support a primary challenger against Senator John Fetterman (PA) by November 18, 2025, this action does not meet the specified criteria for a coordinated campaign. The available research does not indicate that this pledge involves joint efforts, such as press releases or fundraising emails, from at least one other specified progressive group, nor does it specifically name a declared primary challenger at the time of the pledge as described in the source [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/working-families-fetterman-challenger-2028-20251118.html).

General progressive actions do not meet strict coordination requirements. Individual group actions and broader progressive efforts, such as Justice Democrats listing endorsed candidates or the WFP announcing 2026 cycle endorsements, have been observed. However, these activities do not fulfill the precise definition of a coordinated public opposition campaign from at least two specified groups jointly naming a declared primary challenger by the end of 2025 [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/working-families-fetterman-challenger-2028-20251118.html).

## Are Older Democratic Senators Facing Low Approval Amidst New Leadership Calls?

Senator Markey's Age | 80 years old in 2026 (7, 9) [[^]](https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/senate-democrats-approval-ratings-midterms-2026-july-2025) |
Markey's Approval Rating | 62% among likely Democratic primary voters (7) [[^]](https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/senate-democrats-approval-ratings-midterms-2026-july-2025) |
Voters' Stance on New Leadership | 66% desire new leadership, but only 28% would vote against Markey (7) [[^]](https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/senate-democrats-approval-ratings-midterms-2026-july-2025) |

**Senator Ed Markey's approval consistently exceeds 50% among primary voters**

Senator Ed Markey's approval consistently exceeds **50%** among primary voters. Senator Ed Markey (D-MA), born in 1946 and projected to turn 80 in 2026, is the only Democratic incumbent identified who meets the age criterion [[^]](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/04/15/metro/suffolk-poll-markey-moulton-senate-primary/). Polls conducted after June 2025 consistently indicate his approval ratings are significantly above **50%** among likely Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts. For example, a UMass Amherst poll from November 2025 reported his approval at **63%** [[^]](https://www.umass.edu/political-science/about/reports/2025-12), and a Data for Progress poll in the same month found his approval among Democrats to be **73%** [[^]](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/11/5/markey-leads-moulton-in-2026-primary-for-senator-in-massachusetts).

Voters desire new leadership, but still approve of Markey. The desire for new leadership does not translate into disapproval for Senator Markey. A pivotal April 2026 Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll directly questioned voters about wanting "a new generation of leadership" in the Senate. While **66%** of likely Democratic primary voters expressed that this sentiment was important, only **28%** indicated that such a belief would lead them to vote against Markey [[^]](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/04/15/metro/suffolk-poll-markey-moulton-senate-primary/). In the same poll, Markey's overall approval among likely Democratic primary voters remained high at **62%** [[^]](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/04/15/metro/suffolk-poll-markey-moulton-senate-primary/). This data suggests that voters largely distinguish between a general preference for new leadership and their specific support for Senator Markey, keeping his approval well above the **50%** threshold [[^]](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/04/15/metro/suffolk-poll-markey-moulton-senate-primary/).

No other incumbents met the specified polling criteria. No other Democratic incumbent over the age of 75 with relevant polling data meeting all specified criteria was identified.

## Are 2026 Democratic Incumbents Facing Strong Primary Challengers?

Challengers Meeting $2M & Endorsement Criteria | None identified (web research) [[^]](https://www.montrosepress.com/news/state-sen-julie-gonzales-launches-primary-challenge-against-sen-hickenlooper/article_c31d65b9-a98c-45f7-9bfc-3a99167acbb6.html) |
Julie Gonzales Total Receipts (2026) | $16,733.91 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6CO00499/) |
Julie Gonzales Endorsements | None from statewide officials identified [[^]](https://www.montrosepress.com/news/state-sen-julie-gonzales-launches-primary-challenge-against-sen-hickenlooper/article_c31d65b9-a98c-45f7-9bfc-3a99167acbb6.html), [[^]](https://www.kiowacountypress.net/content/state-senator-julie-gonzales-launches-primary-challenge-against-senator-hickenlooper), [[^]](https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/220628/senate-fundraising-disastrous-start-for-julie-gonzales), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6CO00499/) |

**No 2026 Democratic primary challengers meet both criteria yet**

No 2026 Democratic primary challengers meet both criteria yet. As of current web research, no declared primary challengers against Democratic incumbents for the 2026 election cycle have been identified who meet the specified criteria. These criteria require challengers to have successfully raised over **$2** million and secured an endorsement from at least one current statewide elected official by the FEC filing deadline immediately preceding their state's official candidate filing deadline.

Julie Gonzales's campaign significantly lags in fundraising and endorsements. State Senator Julie Gonzales, a declared primary challenger to Senator Hickenlooper in Colorado [[^]](https://www.montrosepress.com/news/state-sen-julie-gonzales-launches-primary-challenge-against-sen-hickenlooper/article_c31d65b9-a98c-45f7-9bfc-3a99167acbb6.html), [[^]](https://www.kiowacountypress.net/content/state-senator-julie-gonzales-launches-primary-challenge-against-senator-hickenlooper), significantly falls short of the financial benchmark. As of the latest available data for the 2026 cycle, her campaign's total receipts amount to **$16,733.91** [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6CO00499/), a sum described as a "disastrous start" [[^]](https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/220628/senate-fundraising-disastrous-start-for-julie-gonzales). Furthermore, the provided sources do not indicate that Julie Gonzales has secured an endorsement from any current statewide elected official [[^]](https://www.montrosepress.com/news/state-sen-julie-gonzales-launches-primary-challenge-against-sen-hickenlooper/article_c31d65b9-a98c-45f7-9bfc-3a99167acbb6.html), [[^]](https://www.kiowacountypress.net/content/state-senator-julie-gonzales-launches-primary-challenge-against-senator-hickenlooper), [[^]](https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/220628/senate-fundraising-disastrous-start-for-julie-gonzales), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6CO00499/).

Details for other potential challengers remain largely undisclosed. While Senator Booker is noted to face a challenge from the left in a New Jersey Senate primary [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/booker-will-face-challenge-from-the-left-in-this-years-senate-primary/), the specific challenger's name is not provided in the available sources, making it impossible to ascertain their fundraising or endorsement status. Other general mentions of Democratic primary challengers or candidates in various races [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4532862/chuck-schumer-senate-recruits-trail-primary-challengers-fundraising/), [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/democratic-primary-challengers-stockpile-cash-house-incumbents-defense-rcna332208), [[^]](https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/15/mallory-mcmorrow-fundraising-lead-michigan-u-s-senate-race-mike-rogers-cash-stevens-el-sayed/89630523007/), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6KY00369/?cycle=2026&election_full=true) do not explicitly identify them as challengers against Democratic incumbents for whom the specified financial and endorsement criteria can be assessed.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2026
- **Closes:** November 03, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.