# Georgia Republican Senate nominee?

In 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/georgia-republican-senate-nominee/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing for the Georgia Republican Senate nominee: Mike Collins at **61.5%** **model** vs **78.0%** **market**, indicating the **market** is more confident in his nomination.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Brian Kemp definitively announced he will not run for Senate.** - Buddy Carter leads in fundraising among active Republican candidates.
- Marjorie Taylor-Greene lacks specific public endorsements and fundraising data.
- Both Carter and Collins primarily rely on large-dollar donor contributions.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **8.0%** for MTG contrasts with 9c **market**, reflecting her lack of visible campaign activity.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Brian Kemp | 1.0% | 0.4% | Market higher by 0.6pp |
| Mike Collins | 78.0% | 61.5% | Market higher by 16.5pp |
| Buddy Carter | 24.0% | 25.0% | Model higher by 1.0pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Brian Kemp | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Mike Collins | 78.0% | 61.5% |
| Buddy Carter | 24.0% | 25.0% |
| Derek Dooley | 9.0% | 8.0% |
| Marjorie Taylor-Greene | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Rich McCormick | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Brad Raffensperger | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Reagan Box | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| John King | 1.0% | 1.0% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has exhibited a sideways, range-bound price trend since its inception, indicating a lack of a strong directional consensus among traders. The implied probability has fluctuated between a low of 3.0% and a high of 9.1%, but has not established a sustained uptrend or downtrend. The market opened at an 8.0% probability and is currently trading near its all-time high at 9.0%, showing very little net change over 294 data points. Short-term volatility is evident, such as a sharp drop to 5.9% before a subsequent recovery to 9.0%. With no additional context on news or developments provided, these price swings cannot be attributed to specific external events and appear to be driven by internal market dynamics.

Trading volume has been inconsistent, with a total of 4,218 contracts traded. Volume tends to spike during significant price moves, such as the 214 contracts traded during the dip to 5.9%, suggesting that these shifts in price were met with some market conviction. However, the price's quick reversion to the top of the range indicates that selling pressure was not sustained. The chart has established clear technical levels, with support near the 3.0% floor and strong resistance at the 9.1% ceiling. Overall market sentiment appears stable but low. The consistent sub-10% price suggests traders view this as a long-shot outcome, and the sideways pattern indicates this low probability assessment has not materially changed over time.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 28, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 24.0%

**Outcome:** Buddy Carter

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Mike Collins wins the Republican Party's nomination for the 2026 Class II Georgia Senate seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. The outcome will be verified from state government sources. The market opened on May 5, 2025, and will close upon Collins winning the nomination or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Buddy Carter | 10% | 11% | 24% | $23,348.11 | $16,575.57 |
| Brian Kemp | 0% | 0.8% | 1% | $48,288 | $13,214 |
| Brad Raffensperger | 0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | $264 | $263 |
| Derek Dooley | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9% | $16,684.24 | $12,953.79 |
| John King | 0% | 1% | 1% | $2 | $2 |
| Mike Collins | 77% | 79% | 78% | $46,264.59 | $27,865.15 |
| Marjorie Taylor-Greene | 0% | 1.4% | 1% | $15,941.51 | $5,024.51 |
| Reagan Box | 0% | 1% | 1% | $137 | $137 |
| Rich McCormick | 0% | 1% | 1% | $365 | $357 |

## Who Has Endorsements for Georgia's 2026 Senate Race?

Brian Kemp's 2026 Senate Candidacy | Not running for U.S. Senate [[^]](https://uat.apnews.com/article/brian-kemp-senate-jon-ossoff-44fa0cc046bff1502bd2b324e868f9db) |
Marjorie Taylor-Greene's 2026 Senate Candidacy | Potential candidate [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia) |
MTG Endorsements from Specified Individuals | No public endorsements reported [[^]](https://www.solflare.com/prediction/elections/event/KXSENATEGAR-26/) |

**Brian Kemp has withdrawn from consideration for the 2026 Senate election**

Brian Kemp has withdrawn from consideration for the 2026 Senate election. Brian Kemp, who was previously considered a potential candidate for the 2026 Georgia Republican Senate nomination, has publicly announced his decision not to run for the U.S. Senate in 2026 [[^]](https://uat.apnews.com/article/brian-kemp-senate-jon-ossoff-44fa0cc046bff1502bd2b324e868f9db). This means Kemp will not challenge Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, and he is consequently not in a position to secure any public endorsements for this specific race [[^]](https://uat.apnews.com/article/brian-kemp-senate-jon-ossoff-44fa0cc046bff1502bd2b324e868f9db).

Marjorie Taylor-Greene has not yet secured the specified endorsements. Marjorie Taylor-Greene is listed as another potential candidate for the 2026 Georgia Republican Senate nomination [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia). However, the available research does not contain any specific information indicating that she has secured public endorsements from Donald Trump Jr., Kari Lake, Steve Bannon, Charlie Kirk (Turning Point Action), or Matt Gaetz for her potential 2026 Senate campaign [[^]](https://www.solflare.com/prediction/elections/event/KXSENATEGAR-26/).

A determination of the first candidate cannot be made. Based on these findings, it cannot be determined which of the two potential candidates is first to secure at least three of the specified public endorsements. One individual has publicly withdrawn from contention, and no such endorsements are reported for the other within the provided sources.

## What Are Georgia Republican Senate Candidates' Q1-Q2 2024 Fundraising Sources?

Mike Collins Total Receipts | $417,008.00 (Q1 & Q2 2024 FEC filings) [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00544684/1940214/) |
Buddy Carter Total Receipts | $629,050.00 (Q1 & Q2 2024 FEC filings) [[^]](http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00543967/1939512) |
Dooley for Georgia Total Receipts | $25,000.00 (Q1 & Q2 2024 FEC filings) [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00914531/1940270/) |

**The initial two FEC filings for 2025 candidates in the Georgia Republican Senate primary are not yet available; however, an analysis of the first two quarters of 2024 (Q1 and Q2) provides insight into candidate fundraising**

The initial two FEC filings for 2025 candidates in the Georgia Republican Senate primary are not yet available; however, an analysis of the first two quarters of 2024 (Q1 and Q2) provides insight into candidate fundraising. Mike Collins reported combined total receipts of **$417,008.00**, with **99.51%** of his funds coming from large-dollar donors and only **0.49%** from small-dollar donors, and no PAC contributions recorded in these filings [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00544684/1940214/). During the same period, Buddy Carter raised a combined total of **$629,050.00**, with **99.39%** derived from a combination of large-dollar individual donors and PACs, and approximately **0.61%** from small-dollar donors [[^]](http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00543967/1939512).

Fundraising patterns suggest an establishment-leaning support base, not grassroots movements. The "Dooley for Georgia" committee, in contrast, reported total receipts of **$25,000.00**, which were entirely sourced from candidate loans, showing no contributions from small-dollar donors, large-dollar donors, or PACs [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00914531/1940270/). The strong reliance of both Mike Collins and Buddy Carter on large-dollar donors, coupled with significant PAC support for Carter, indicates an establishment-leaning support base. The negligible percentages of funds from small-dollar donors suggest a lack of broad grassroots appeal, while "Dooley for Georgia" also demonstrated no broad donor base with its exclusive reliance on candidate loans [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00914531/1940270/).

## Which Candidate Secured Georgia GOP County Chair Endorsements by Q2 2025?

County Chair Endorsements Status | Data on majority endorsements from Georgia's Republican county-level party chairs by Q2 2025 is not available [[^]](https://georgiara.com/2025-gra-endorsements/). |
GRA Endorsement Conventions | Held April 24, 2025 [[^]](https://georgiara.com/2025/04/24/7th-11th-regional-endorsement-convention-selects-district-candidates/), and around April 29, 2025 [[^]](https://georgiara.com/2025/04/29/local-ras-endorse-select-district-candidates/) |
Prediction Market Odds | Available for 2026 Georgia Republican Senate nominee [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner) |

**Specific data on county-level endorsements for Georgia Republican candidates is currently unavailable**

Specific data on county-level endorsements for Georgia Republican candidates is currently unavailable. The available web research does not contain the necessary information to determine which potential candidate will have secured the majority of public endorsements from Georgia's Republican county-level party chairs by the end of Q2 2025.

Related information from specific groups does not fulfill the query's criteria. While Josh McKoon was re-elected as the state GOP chairman on June 9, 2025 [[^]](https://www.wuga.org/local-news/2025-06-09/georgia-republicans-re-elect-josh-mckoon-as-gop-chairman-at-annual-convention), this pertains to state party leadership rather than county-level candidate endorsements. Similarly, the Georgia Republican Assembly (GRA) has issued various endorsements in 2025, including a 7th & 11th Regional Endorsement Convention on April 24, 2025, and local RA endorsements around April 29, 2025 [[^]](https://georgiara.com/2025-gra-endorsements/). However, these endorsements originate from a specific organization (GRA) and are not explicitly from county-level party chairs.

Prediction markets offer speculative insights, not direct endorsement tracking. Several sources detail prediction **market** odds for the Georgia Republican Senate nominee in 2026, providing speculative insights into potential winners [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner). For instance, Polymarket lists predictions for the Georgia Republican Senate Primary winner [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner), and Kalshi provides odds for the 2026 Georgia Republican Senate nominee [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsenategar/georgia-republican-senate-nominee/kxsenategar-26). These markets reflect perceived candidate strength but do not track actual endorsements from county-level party chairs, which was the specific metric requested [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner). Therefore, identifying the candidate who will have secured the majority of such endorsements by the specified deadline is not possible with the current research.

## Georgia GOP Senate Primary: Moderate Voter Favorability in H1 2025?

H1 2025 GA GOP Primary Polling | No specific data on moderate/independent voter favorability found [[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2025/10/senate-poll-ossoff-riding-high-in-georgia-maga-firebrand-leads-gop-field/). |
Relevant Polling Dates Found | October and November 2025 (AJC poll [[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2025/10/senate-poll-ossoff-riding-high-in-georgia-maga-firebrand-leads-gop-field/), AJC article [[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2025/11/interactive-how-ga-republicans-feel-about-governor-senate-races-and-key-issues/)) |
Other Source Types | Prediction markets (PredictIt [[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8178/Who-will-win-the-2026-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination), Polymarket [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner)); different election cycles (2024 Presidential [[^]](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/georgia/), 2022 Gubernatorial [[^]](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/georgia/), 2026 Gubernatorial [[^]](https://coefficient.org/our-work/ga-gov-2026-gop-primary/)) |

**Specific polling data for the Georgia GOP Senate primary remains unavailable**

Specific polling data for the Georgia GOP Senate primary remains unavailable. The research did not identify any candidate consistently showing the highest favorability rating among 'moderate' or 'independent' voters in statewide Georgia GOP primary polling conducted in the first half of 2025 for the Senate race. The detailed polling information requested for this specific timeframe and voter segment was not contained in the provided web research. Therefore, no direct evidence was found to identify a candidate meeting the specified criteria for the Georgia GOP Senate primary during the first half of 2025.

Sources reviewed fell outside the requested criteria or scope. Several sources found were dated outside the specified first half of 2025, such as an AJC poll [[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2025/10/senate-poll-ossoff-riding-high-in-georgia-maga-firebrand-leads-gop-field/) and another AJC article [[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2025/11/interactive-how-ga-republicans-feel-about-governor-senate-races-and-key-issues/) from October and November 2025. Other resources, including PredictIt [[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8178/Who-will-win-the-2026-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination) and Polymarket [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner), were prediction markets that provide odds rather than direct public opinion polling data on voter favorability. Additionally, some linked information pertained to different elections, including the 2024 Presidential primary [[^]](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/georgia/), the 2022 Gubernatorial election [[^]](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/georgia/), or the 2026 Gubernatorial primary [[^]](https://coefficient.org/our-work/ga-gov-2026-gop-primary/). One article discussing a potential general election matchup between Governor Kemp and Senator Ossoff [[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-senate-seat-would-be-toss-up-between-kemp-and-ossoff/ODLMO73SKZCT3IDYG3VWX2T4AE/) also did not focus on GOP primary favorability among specific moderate or independent voter segments.

## Will Brian Kemp Run for U.S. Senate in 2026?

Senate Run Decision | Not running for U.S. Senate in 2026 [[^]](https://georgiarecorder.com/2025/05/05/kemp-decision-to-avoid-2026-georgia-u-s-senate-race-scrambles-projected-field-against-ossoff/) |
Decision Reported | Early May 2025 [[^]](https://georgiarecorder.com/2025/05/05/kemp-decision-to-avoid-2026-georgia-u-s-senate-race-scrambles-projected-field-against-ossoff/) |
Deadline for Candidacy | January 31, 2026 [[^]](https://georgiarecorder.com/2025/05/05/kemp-decision-to-avoid-2026-georgia-u-s-senate-race-scrambles-projected-field-against-ossoff/) |

**Georgia Governor Brian Kemp decided against a 2026 U.S**

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp decided against a 2026 U.S. Senate campaign. He has publicly confirmed his decision not to form a federal exploratory committee or file a statement of candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2026. This choice, widely reported by various news outlets in early May 2025, with specific articles on May 5, 2025, detailed his intent not to run [[^]](https://georgiarecorder.com/2025/05/05/kemp-decision-to-avoid-2026-georgia-u-s-senate-race-scrambles-projected-field-against-ossoff/). This announcement definitively precedes any actions related to an exploratory committee or candidacy filing, which would have been due by the January 31, 2026, deadline.

Kemp's choice significantly alters the 2026 Republican Senate field. Prior to his definitive announcement, Governor Kemp had maintained suspense within the Republican Party regarding his future political ambitions, particularly concerning a potential Senate bid [[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/no-time-frame-kemp-keeps-gop-guessing-as-pressure-builds-on-senate-bid/IG4VDZSRBFDVHOPB242LQHPBME/). However, reliable reports from sources including the Georgia Recorder, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and WABE have confirmed that Kemp will not challenge the incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff [[^]](https://georgiarecorder.com/2025/05/05/kemp-decision-to-avoid-2026-georgia-u-s-senate-race-scrambles-projected-field-against-ossoff/). His decision is considered a significant development for Georgia's 2026 Senate race, as it "scrambles the projected field" and is expected to trigger a competitive scramble among other Republicans for the nomination [[^]](https://georgiarecorder.com/2025/05/05/kemp-decision-to-avoid-2026-georgia-u-s-senate-race-scrambles-projected-field-against-ossoff/). Consequently, Governor Kemp will not be pursuing any steps toward a U.S. Senate campaign by the established January 31, 2026, deadline.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2026
- **Closes:** November 03, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.