# Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

On Aug 18, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/florida-republican-governor-primary-james-fishback-vote-percent/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** assigns meaningfully lower odds (**67.0%**) than the **market** (**79.0%**) for James Fishback receiving at least **1%** of the vote, driven by his campaign's severe financial weakness, lack of major endorsements, and low name recognition.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - James Fishback's campaign reports severe financial weakness, with limited cash.** - Fishback lacks major endorsements; a primary opponent holds Trump's backing.
- Fishback shows very low name identification and favorability in recent polls.
- Severe financial constraints significantly limit Fishback's paid media strategy.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** With a -12pp gap between **market** (79c) and **model** (**67%**), Fishback's severe campaign weakness suggests overvaluation.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 10% | 50.0% | 29.0% | Market higher by 21.0pp |
| At least 20% | 31.0% | 16.3% | Market higher by 14.7pp |
| At least 30% | 15.0% | 7.5% | Market higher by 7.5pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 10% | 50.0% | 29.0% |
| At least 20% | 31.0% | 16.3% |
| At least 30% | 15.0% | 7.5% |
| At least 5% | 71.0% | 49.0% |
| At least 1% | 79.0% | 67.0% |
| At least 3% | 84.0% | 67.0% |

- Expiration: August 18, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market, which speculates on James Fishback's vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, has traded in a relatively narrow seven-point range between 79.0% and 86.0%. The price action is best described as sideways, having opened at 84.0% and currently resting at 79.0%. The most significant price movement is this recent decline to the 79.0% level, which represents the low end of its historical trading range. No specific news or external events were provided to explain this recent dip in price, suggesting the movement is based on internal market dynamics rather than a reaction to a public development.

An analysis of trading volume reveals that the market's liquidity is highly concentrated. The vast majority of the 1,307 total contracts traded occurred around the market's opening at the 84.0% price level. The subsequent price drift, including the recent drop to 79.0%, has occurred on virtually zero volume. This pattern indicates that the initial price was established with significant conviction, but there has been very little market participation since. The price change appears to be the result of traders adjusting their standing offers downward in a thin market, rather than a wave of active selling.

The chart suggests that market sentiment began with high confidence in Fishback securing the nomination, but this conviction has not been tested by recent trading activity. The 84.0% level, where most volume was executed, acts as a significant historical price point. The current price of 79.0% is functioning as a potential support level, being the lowest price the market has reached. The lack of follow-on volume after the initial flurry of trading implies an illiquid market where the current price may reflect the positioning of a few participants rather than a broad consensus. Overall sentiment still heavily favors Fishback, but the confidence has slightly weakened in a low-information, low-activity environment.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 27, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 21.0% to 31.0%

**Outcome:** At least 20%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 22, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 31.0% to 22.0%

**Outcome:** At least 20%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to Yes if James Fishback's certified popular vote percentage in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary (scheduled for August 18, 2026) is between 10% and 100%, inclusive. A No resolution occurs if his vote share is below 10%, or if the election is cancelled, postponed beyond expiration, or no certified results are available by the market's ultimate expiration on August 18, 2027. Settlement relies solely on official certified results from the Florida Secretary of State, calculating percentages from total valid votes and including certified write-ins.

## Market Discussion

Traders hold mixed views on James Fishback's vote percentage in the Florida Republican Governor primary. One user predicts he will not reach 30%, arguing that nearly two-thirds of Florida Republicans are aged 50 and older, with another user concurring. In contrast, another trader believes Fishback will win the primary, which would imply a significant vote share.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 1% | 80% | 86% | 79% | $1,322 | $1,300 |
| At least 3% | 79% | 82% | 84% | $813 | $662 |
| At least 5% | 69% | 72% | 71% | $2,815.75 | $2,404.95 |
| At least 10% | 50% | 51% | 50% | $8,746.54 | $5,635.08 |
| At least 20% | 28% | 32% | 31% | $6,141.45 | $3,562.83 |
| At least 30% | 20% | 25% | 15% | $4,994.96 | $3,553.96 |

## What Are James Fishback's Latest Campaign Fundraising Figures?

Current Cash on Hand | Less than $28,000 [[^]](https://miamiselect.com/james-fishback-fundraising-continues-to-flounder-as-campaign-has-under-28k-cash-on-hand/) |
Fundraising Status | Floundering and flopped [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/773878-take-2-james-fishback-files-another-finance-report-but-the-fundraising-isnt-much-better/) |
Major FL Republican Donors | None identified as top contributors [[^]](https://miamiselect.com/james-fishback-fundraising-continues-to-flounder-as-campaign-has-under-28k-cash-on-hand/) |

**James Fishback's campaign reports significant fundraising difficulties, with under $28,000 cash on hand**

James Fishback's campaign reports significant fundraising difficulties, with under **$28,000** cash on hand. Both early and recent finance reports consistently describe his campaign's fundraising efforts as "flopped" and "floundering," with little improvement observed over time [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/773878-take-2-james-fishback-files-another-finance-report-but-the-fundraising-isnt-much-better/).

Major Florida Republican donors have not contributed to Fishback's campaign. Web research has not identified any major Florida-based Republican donors, such as individuals or entities linked to The Villages, U.S. Sugar Corp, or GEO Group, as top contributors to his campaign. Additionally, a Political Action Committee associated with Fishback received a fine for failing to meet deadlines for quarterly reports, indicating issues with timely financial disclosures [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791617-state-fines-political-committee-backing-james-fishback-for-failing-to-file-quartler-reports-on-time/).

## Who Have Trump and DeSantis Endorsed for Florida Governor?

Donald Trump's Endorsement | Byron Donalds for Florida Governor [[^]](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article300700494.html) |
Ron DeSantis's Stance | Declined to endorse any candidate [[^]](https://www.dailygazette.com/tribune/desantis-again-declines-to-endorse-a-candidate-for-florida-governor/article_40f2f0bf-efb0-5cfd-b8ae-35ab9080b8d4.html) |
Republican Senatorial Support | Nine Senators for Byron Donalds [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/782665-9-republican-senators-endorse-byron-donalds-for-governor-as-he-builds-gop-support/) |

**Donald Trump has formally endorsed Byron Donalds for Florida governor**

Donald Trump has formally endorsed Byron Donalds for Florida governor. The former President publicly backed Byron Donalds for Florida governor by July 1, 2026 [[^]](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article300700494.html). Trump explicitly stated his intent to endorse Donalds, with additional reports confirming his support through phrases such as "'Run, Byron, Run!'" [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/722308-run-byron-run-donald-trump-all-but-endorses-byron-donalds-to-be-next-florida-governor/) and references to "Trump-backed Byron Donalds" [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdN09RqdujA). This demonstrates direct involvement from the former President in the state's gubernatorial primary.

Ron DeSantis has consistently refrained from endorsing any gubernatorial primary candidate. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has maintained his position of declining to endorse any candidate for Florida governor in the primary [[^]](https://www.dailygazette.com/tribune/desantis-again-declines-to-endorse-a-candidate-for-florida-governor/article_40f2f0bf-efb0-5cfd-b8ae-35ab9080b8d4.html). He has even refused to endorse candidates in other specific races [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/789113-ron-desantis-refuses-to-endorse-jay-collins-in-lgs-hometown/). Despite DeSantis's non-endorsement, Byron Donalds has accumulated significant support, including public endorsements from nine Republican Senators, signaling a growing consensus within the GOP for his candidacy [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/782665-9-republican-senators-endorse-byron-donalds-for-governor-as-he-builds-gop-support/).

## Who has officially qualified for Florida's 2026 Republican Governor Primary?

Filing Deadline (Expected) | May 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)) |
Preliminary Republican Filings | At least eight individuals [[^]](https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?amp%3Bamp%3BOfficeCode=GOV&elecid=20261103-GEN) |
Ashley Moody/Jimmy Patronis Status | Not officially entered/announced [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)) |

**The 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary filing deadline is still approaching**

The 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary filing deadline is still approaching. The official candidate filing deadline for the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary has not yet occurred, making the question of "qualified" candidates by that deadline premature. The deadline is anticipated to be in May 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)). As a result, no candidates have officially "qualified" for the ballot. However, several individuals have filed preliminary paperwork with the Florida Division of Elections to run as Republicans for Governor [[^]](https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?amp%3Bamp%3BOfficeCode=GOV&elecid=20261103-GEN).

Several individuals have filed preliminary paperwork for the 2026 gubernatorial race. As of the latest information, at least eight candidates have filed preliminary paperwork, including Jared Dean, Richard Anthony Fleming, Michael Adam Levy, Peter John Martin, K.C. Olson, Kevin Polk, Brian Scott, and Matthew Scott Stamper [[^]](https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?amp%3Bamp%3BOfficeCode=GOV&elecid=20261103-GEN). Regarding current statewide officeholders, neither Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody nor Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Jimmy Patronis has officially entered or announced their candidacy for the 2026 gubernatorial race [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)). While both have been mentioned as potential candidates, neither has made an official announcement to run [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)). Ashley Moody currently serves as Florida's Attorney General [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Moody), and Jimmy Patronis holds the office of Florida's CFO [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Jimmy_Patronis).

## What are James Fishback's latest poll numbers among Republican voters?

Average Name ID | 34.8% (Average of TPSI [[^]](https://tpsiofficial.substack.com/p/tpsi-florida-2026-gop-primary-poll) and Emerson [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2026-poll-donalds-leads-gop-primary-for-governor-republicans-outpace-democrats-in-florida-elections/) polls) |
Average Favorability | 16.6% (Average of TPSI [[^]](https://tpsiofficial.substack.com/p/tpsi-florida-2026-gop-primary-poll) and Emerson [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2026-poll-donalds-leads-gop-primary-for-governor-republicans-outpace-democrats-in-florida-elections/) polls) |
TPSI Net Favorability | -7.9% [[^]](https://tpsiofficial.substack.com/p/tpsi-florida-2026-gop-primary-poll) |

**James Fishback shows moderate name identification, low favorability among Republican primary voters**

James Fishback shows moderate name identification, low favorability among Republican primary voters. Based on the last two non-partisan, publicly released polls conducted before August 1, 2026, James Fishback averaged 34.8 percent name identification among likely Republican primary voters. His average favorability rating from these polls stood at 16.6 percent.

The TPSI poll revealed a familiarity rating of 37.6 percent for Fishback. This independently conducted survey, conducted from April 1st to April 3rd, 2024, interviewed 778 likely 2026 Republican Primary voters [[^]](https://tpsiofficial.substack.com/p/tpsi-florida-2026-gop-primary-poll). In this poll, Fishback's favorable rating was 18.2 percent, while 26.1 percent viewed him unfavorably, resulting in a net favorability of -7.9 percent [[^]](https://tpsiofficial.substack.com/p/tpsi-florida-2026-gop-primary-poll).

Emerson College Polling similarly found low recognition and favorability for Fishback. Their survey, conducted from March 22-24, 2024, included 422 Florida Republican primary voters. This poll reported that 32 percent of respondents recognized James Fishback, with 68 percent being unfamiliar [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2026-poll-donalds-leads-gop-primary-for-governor-republicans-outpace-democrats-in-florida-elections/). Regarding voter sentiment, 15 percent of voters held a favorable view of Fishback, and 19 percent viewed him unfavorably [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2026-poll-donalds-leads-gop-primary-for-governor-republicans-outpace-democrats-in-florida-elections/).

## What Are James Fishback's Campaign Finances and Media Strategy?

Cash on Hand | Less than $28,000 (as of recent reports [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790153-fishback-fundraising-flounders/)) |
Fundraising Status | Continues to flounder (recent reports [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790153-fishback-fundraising-flounders/)) |
Projected Paid Media Strategy | No evidence of substantial strategy or GRPs booked for final 60 days (due to financial constraints [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790153-fishback-fundraising-flounders/)) |

**Fishback's campaign faces severe financial constraints, severely limiting paid media strategy**

Fishback's campaign faces severe financial constraints, severely limiting paid media strategy. James Fishback's campaign for the Florida Republican Governor primary currently holds less than **$28,000** cash on hand, with fundraising efforts repeatedly described as "floundering" [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790153-fishback-fundraising-flounders/) and showing no significant improvement [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/773878-take-2-james-fishback-files-another-finance-report-but-the-fundraising-isnt-much-better). These severe financial challenges suggest there is no indication that the Fishback campaign has booked or can afford a substantial paid media strategy, including specific total ad spend or Gross Rating Points (GRPs), for the critical final 60 days leading up to the August 18, 2026 primary. Further reflecting campaign finance difficulties, a political committee supporting Fishback was fined for missing deadlines on quarterly reports [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791617-state-fines-political-committee-backing-james-fishback-for-failing-to-file-quartler-reports-on-time/).

Fishback's financial limitations starkly contrast with primary opponents' media presence. The constrained financial resources of the Fishback campaign likely preclude any significant paid media presence in Florida's top five media markets—Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Orlando, Jacksonville, and West Palm Beach—during this crucial period. This situation differs notably from at least one of his primary opponents; Jay Collins, for example, is reportedly benefiting from a considerable volume of "third-party ad buys" [[^]](https://flapol.com/4opNS9K), indicating a more robust media presence. While Paul Renner is described as "burning through cash" [[^]](https://flapol.com/4s6d7Rc), direct comparative figures for his ad spend or GRPs against Fishback are not available.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** August 18, 2027
- **Closes:** August 18, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.