# CA-28 primary: Who will advance?

CA-28

Updated: April 28, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/ca-28-primary-who-will-advance/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect April Verlato to advance in the CA-28 primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Verlato significantly out-raised Roybal in Q1 2026 fundraising.** - Peter Roybal lacks explicit support from major institutional groups.
- Republican party apparatus does not explicitly support Peter Roybal.
- April Verlato is a Republican, correcting prior party assumptions.
- Verlato successfully advanced to the general election previously.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 95c, **market** prices 1.6 points higher than the **93.4%** **model**, with Verlato leading fundraising.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| April Verlato | 94.7% | 96.9% | April Verlato's substantial financial advantage over Peter Roybal, as revealed in Q1 2026 FEC reports, strongly corroborates the market's high probability of her advancing due to superior late-stage campaign resources. |
| Peter Roybal | 36.0% | 11.5% | The Q1 2026 FEC campaign finance reports, an official source, reveal Peter Roybal's negligible fundraising and severe financial disadvantage compared to his opponent, making his 23.1% debiased probability of advancing appear significantly overstated, despite the market potentially already discounting for some weakness. |
| Judy Chu | 95.0% | 93.4% | The provided background research details campaign finance for April Verlato and Peter Roybal in CA-28 but offers no information about Judy Chu, leaving the market's high probability for her advancement unchallenged but also unsupported by this text. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| April Verlato | 94.7% | 96.9% |
| Peter Roybal | 36.0% | 11.5% |
| Judy Chu | 95.0% | 93.4% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market exhibits a completely static price trend with no significant movements. The probability of a "YES" outcome has remained unchanged at 95.0% since the market's inception, indicating a strong and unwavering consensus from the start. The price chart shows a perfectly sideways or flat trend line, with 95.0% acting as the sole support and resistance level. Given the absence of any price fluctuations, there are no specific spikes or drops to analyze in relation to external events.

Trading volume in this market has been extremely light, with a total of only 100 contracts traded. This entire volume was recorded on a single day, April 23, and notably, it did not cause any change in the market price. This pattern suggests very low liquidity but high conviction among the few participants. The transaction at the 95.0% level reinforced the existing price, indicating that both buyers and sellers agreed on this high probability. Overall, the chart reflects a market with a deeply entrenched sentiment that the outcome is a near certainty, with no price discovery or re-evaluation occurring among its limited participants.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Peter Roybal advances in the 2026 CA-28 primary election, which begins on June 2, 2026, and 'No' if he does not. The California Secretary of State will verify the outcome, although the market is eligible for accelerated determination based on a consensus of media projections. The market opened on April 7, 2026, closes after the outcome occurs (or by November 3, 2027 at the latest), and may close early if the event takes place.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| April Verlato | 88% | 96.3% | 94.7% | $1,640.02 | $1,303.02 |
| Judy Chu | 93% | 99% | 95% | $100 | $100 |
| Peter Roybal | 14% | 15% | 36% | $700.01 | $700.01 |

## What Did Q1 2026 Campaign Finance Reports Reveal for CA-28?

April Verlato Q1 Fundraising | $51,000 (Source [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-1q-2026-senate-and)) |
April Verlato Q1 Cash on Hand | $72,000 (Source [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-1q-2026-senate-and)) |
Peter Roybal Q1 Fundraising | Negligible (Source [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-1q-2026-senate-and)) |

**April Verlato's campaign significantly outpaces Peter Roybal's in fundraising**

April Verlato's campaign significantly outpaces Peter Roybal's in fundraising. The final FEC pre-primary campaign finance reports for the first quarter of 2026 indicate a considerable financial disparity between Democratic challenger April Verlato and candidate Peter Roybal in California's 28th Congressional District race. Verlato's campaign reported raising **$51,000** and disbursed **$11,000** during this reporting period [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-1q-2026-senate-and). By the end of the first quarter of 2026, Verlato's campaign concluded with **$72,000** cash on hand [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-1q-2026-senate-and).

Peter Roybal's campaign shows negligible financial activity, highlighting a resource gap. In stark contrast to Verlato, Peter Roybal, also a candidate for the 28th Congressional District [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Roybal), reported negligible fundraising during the same period [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-1q-2026-senate-and). This indicates a substantial difference in late-stage spending power and overall resources for the June 2 primary election [[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-1q-2026-senate-and).

## Are CA-28 Mail-In Ballot Party Turnout Percentages Publicly Available?

Specific Turnout Data Availability | Not directly calculable or readily available publicly for CA-28, final week, by party [[^]](https://www.lavote.net/home/voting-elections/current-elections/voter-status-and-participation) |
LA County RR/CC Public Data | Provides broader statistics (overall turnout, total mail-in), not party-specific for district/timeframe [[^]](https://www.lavote.net/home/voting-elections/current-elections/voter-status-and-participation) |
PDI Data Access | Granular data available via paid subscription or specialized reports, not public links [[^]](https://www.politicaldata.com/) |

**Precise mail-in ballot turnout by party in CA-28 is not publicly available**

Precise mail-in ballot turnout by party in CA-28 is not publicly available. Exact turnout percentages for registered Republicans versus registered Democrats, specifically for returned mail-in ballots in California's 28th Congressional District (CA-28) during only the final week before an election, are not directly calculable or readily available from publicly provided sources. While official county records and specialized data vendors track various metrics, this granular detail for a specific timeframe and district is typically not published in general public reports.

Los Angeles County's public data offers broad, not specific, voter statistics. The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk (RR/CC) provides official voter information and cumulative ballot return data [[^]](https://www.lavote.net/home/voting-elections/current-elections/voter-status-and-participation). However, their public dashboards and reports generally offer broader statistics, such as overall voter turnout or total mail-in ballots returned county-wide. They do not typically provide disaggregated mail-in ballot returns by party registration for a specific congressional district within a narrow, pre-election window. Extracting such specific data often requires custom queries or specialized access not available through general public web pages.

Commercial data vendors offer granular data, but require paid access. Political Data Inc. (PDI) is a vendor known for providing highly detailed voter data and ballot tracking services used by campaigns [[^]](https://www.politicaldata.com/). While PDI's services are capable of generating reports with the specific turnout percentages requested (i.e., returned ballots by party, for a specific district and timeframe), access to this granular level of detail is typically part of their paid subscription services or specialized reports, not freely accessible through general public links like those provided [[^]](https://politicaldata.com/early-vote-counts?districtId=9999&districtName=California+Statewide).

## What official political endorsements do Roybal and Verlato's campaigns have?

Peter Roybal Official Support | No active support from official Republican party apparatus [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Roybal) |
April Verlato Key Endorsements | Inland Empire Labor Council, AFL-CIO; Equality California [[^]](https://ielabor.org/cope/2026-primary-endorsements/) |
April Verlato High-Profile Endorsement | Congresswoman Katie Porter [[^]](https://verlatoforcongress.com/?page_id=164) |

**Peter Roybal's campaign has not secured explicit support from major institutional groups**

Peter Roybal's campaign has not secured explicit support from major institutional groups. The official Republican party apparatus does not appear to be actively endorsing or providing dedicated resources to his campaign for California's 28th Congressional District [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Roybal). Research indicates no significant partisan or non-partisan organizations are listed as committing meaningful resources or offering endorsements to Roybal [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Roybal).

April Verlato has garnered significant backing from prominent progressive and labor organizations capable of mobilizing voters. She has received an endorsement from the Inland Empire Labor Council, AFL-CIO, an influential labor organization recognized for its grassroots efforts and resource allocation [[^]](https://ielabor.org/cope/2026-primary-endorsements/). Additionally, Verlato is endorsed by Equality California, a leading LGBTQ+ civil rights organization actively involved in supporting candidates and voter outreach [[^]](https://www.eqca.org/mar-2026-endorsements/). Her campaign website and Ballotpedia confirm these endorsements, also noting support from Congresswoman Katie Porter [[^]](https://verlatoforcongress.com/?page_id=164). These endorsements highlight Verlato's ability to secure dedicated get-out-the-vote efforts and other substantial resources from these groups.

## Is Google Trends Search Interest Data Available for Key Candidates?

Election District | California's 28th Congressional District [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_28th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) |
Primary Election Date | June 2 top-two primary [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_28th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) |
April Verlato Role | Challenger for U.S. House [[^]](https://www.opencampaign.com/politicians-in-united-states/194032/april-verlato) |

**Specific Google Trends data for candidates was not available**

Specific Google Trends data for candidates was not available. Research could not provide specific Google Trends search interest data for Peter Roybal and April Verlato within the Los Angeles media **market** for the 30 days leading up to the primary. Consequently, a comparative analysis of their search interest, which would include any late or sustained spikes indicative of rising name recognition or voter engagement, could not be performed based on the information gathered.

Contextual information on the election and candidates is accessible. Details regarding California's 28th Congressional District election in 2026, including a scheduled June 2 top-two primary, are available [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_28th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). April Verlato is identified as a challenger for the U.S. House [[^]](https://www.opencampaign.com/politicians-in-united-states/194032/april-verlato), with her campaign website offering information on her background and platform [[^]](https://www.verlatoforcongress.com/). Information about Peter Roybal is also accessible [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Roybal). Despite the availability of this general information, the critical Google Trends data necessary for a comparative analysis remains absent.

## What Were the CA-28 Primary Candidates' Party Affiliations and Strategies?

April Verlato Affiliation | Republican (not Democrat) [[^]](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/03/06/republican-april-verlato-advances-to-the-general-election-for-us-house-in-californias-28th-congressional-district) |
Peter Roybal Affiliation | Democrat [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Roybal) |
Verlato General Election Status | Advanced to general election in CA-28 (2024) [[^]](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/03/06/republican-april-verlato-advances-to-the-general-election-for-us-house-in-californias-28th-congressional-district) |

**April Verlato is a Republican, not a Democrat, correcting initial assumptions regarding her candidacy**

April Verlato is a Republican, not a Democrat, correcting initial assumptions regarding her candidacy. Verlato successfully advanced to the general election in California's 28th Congressional District in 2024 [[^]](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/03/06/republican-april-verlato-advances-to-the-general-election-for-us-house-in-californias-28th-congressional-district). Peter Roybal is a Democrat [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Roybal), and he challenged incumbent Democratic Representative Judy Chu [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_28th_Congressional_District_election,_2024_(March_5_top-two_primary)). Consequently, the premise that Verlato was vying to be a "Democratic alternative" to Chu is incorrect due to her actual party affiliation.

April Verlato strategically consolidated the Republican vote in the primary. In California's top-two primary system, where the two candidates with the most votes advance regardless of party, April Verlato, as the sole Republican in the 2024 primary, focused her campaign on appealing to voters looking for an alternative to the district's strong Democratic presence [[^]](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/03/06/republican-april-verlato-advances-to-the-general-election-for-us-house-in-californias-28th-congressional-district). This strategy proved effective in securing her spot in the general election [[^]](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/03/06/republican-april-verlato-advances-to-the-general-election-for-us-house-in-californias-28th-congressional-district).

Peter Roybal sought differentiation from Chu; Verlato offered partisan contrast. As a Democrat challenging an incumbent Democrat, Roybal's campaign strategy would have involved distinguishing himself from Judy Chu to attract a segment of Democratic or independent voters, not consolidating the entire Republican vote [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Roybal). Similarly, April Verlato, being a Republican, would not have focused her efforts on Roybal to position herself as a "viable Democratic alternative" to Chu; instead, her messaging would align with Republican principles, offering a partisan contrast [[^]](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/03/06/republican-april-verlato-advances-to-the-general-election-for-us-house-in-californias-28th-congressional-district).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.