# AZ-01 Democratic nominee? In 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: Primaries US Elections HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/az-01-democratic-nominee/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Amish Shah is most likely to be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Amish Shah secured the first dated national progressive endorsement.** - Rival campaigns actively use Amish Shah's border security votes against him. - Conor O'Callaghan demonstrates robust financial health with strong cash-on-hand. - Andrei Cherny holds endorsements from Brady PAC and Phoenix Mayor Gallego. - Kurt Miller and Andrew Horne lack sufficient funds despite high cash-to-debt. - Marlene Galán-Woods lacks key financial and endorsement information. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **15%** **probability** vs 16c **market** price, implying a -1pp gap; some candidates have high ratios but low funds. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Amish Shah | 72.0% | 69.3% | Secured the first dated national progressive endorsement, coupled with substantial cash-on-hand. | | Marlene Galán-Woods | 2.0% | 2.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp | | Jonathan Treble | 16.0% | 14.6% | Market higher by 1.4pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Amish Shah | 72.0% | 69.3% | | Marlene Galán-Woods | 2.0% | 2.1% | | Jonathan Treble | 16.0% | 14.6% | | Andrei Cherny | 5.0% | 5.0% | | Mark Robert Gordon | 5.0% | 5.0% | | Rick McCartney | 4.0% | 4.0% | - Expiration: November 3, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market shows a distinct and significant downward trend. The contract, representing the probability of a specific outcome in the AZ-01 Democratic primary, opened at 29.0% and remained stable at that level for some time. However, on or around April 27, 2026, the price experienced a sharp drop of 13 percentage points, falling from 29.0% to 16.0%. This single event constitutes the entirety of the price movement over the observed period. The provided information does not contain any specific news or developments that would explain the catalyst for this abrupt decline in perceived probability. The market has extremely low liquidity, with a total of only 22 contracts traded. This low volume suggests that the price movement may have been caused by a very small number of trades and may not reflect a broad consensus. Such thin markets are prone to high volatility. From a technical perspective, the 29.0% level acted as a ceiling before the drop, while the current price of 16.0% represents a new support level and the all-time low for the contract. Overall, market sentiment has shifted decisively negative, but the low conviction, as evidenced by the minimal trading volume, indicates that this sentiment is held by a very limited number of participants. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 April 28, 2026: 15.0pp drop Price decreased from 87.0% to 72.0% **Outcome:** Amish Shah **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 27, 2026: 15.0pp spike Price increased from 72.0% to 87.0% **Outcome:** Amish Shah **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 17, 2026: 11.0pp spike Price increased from 57.0% to 68.0% **Outcome:** Amish Shah **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves to "Yes" if Amish Shah wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 AZ-01 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified from democrats.org. This market opened on December 20, 2025, and will close either upon the outcome occurring or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00am EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Andrei Cherny | 0.1% | 4% | 5% | $94 | $94 | | Amish Shah | 79% | 85% | 72% | $13,732.48 | $5,773.48 | | Jonathan Treble | 16% | 17% | 16% | $2,370.78 | $1,649.39 | | Marlene Galán-Woods | 2% | 5.2% | 2% | $3,410.39 | $712.39 | | Mark Robert Gordon | 0.1% | 4% | 5% | $51 | $51 | | Rick McCartney | 0.1% | 4% | 4% | $3 | $3 | ## Which AZ-01 Democratic Primary Candidates Have Highest Cash-to-Debt Ratios? Kurt Miller Cash-on-Hand to Debt Ratio | Effectively infinite (zero debt) [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=AZ01) | Andrew Horne Cash-on-Hand to Debt Ratio | Effectively infinite (zero debt) [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=AZ01) | Conor O'Callaghan Cash-on-Hand to Debt Ratio | Approximately 2.90:1 [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=AZ01) | **Two candidates lead Arizona's 1st Congressional District in financial strength** Two candidates lead Arizona's 1st Congressional District in financial strength. Based on their Q2 2024 FEC filings, Kurt Miller and Andrew Horne are projected to demonstrate the highest cash-on-hand to total debt ratios among Democratic primary candidates in Arizona's 1st Congressional District [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=AZ01). Both candidates reported zero total debt owed by their committees as of June 30, 2024 [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=AZ01). This absence of debt results in effectively infinite ratios. Miller's committee had **$14,978** in cash-on-hand, while Horne's reported **$13,440** [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=AZ01). Other candidates demonstrate significant but finite cash-on-hand to debt ratios. Conor O'Callaghan reported **$290,296** in cash-on-hand against **$100,000** in total debts, yielding a ratio of approximately 2.90:1 [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=AZ01). Amish Shah's committee, "AMISH FOR ARIZONA," held **$435,274.52** in cash-on-hand with **$235,000.00** in total debts owed, translating to a ratio of approximately 1.85:1 [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=AZ01). Direct comparison to 2022 competitive races is currently impossible. A direct comparison to the average cash-on-hand to total debt ratio for non-incumbent Democratic primary winners in competitive U.S. House races from the 2022 cycle cannot be established. The available research sources do not provide this specific financial benchmark for such a comparison [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/AZ/01/2024/). ## Which Candidate First Secured a Dated National Progressive Endorsement? Amish Shah Endorsement Date | May 13, 2025 (Indian American Impact Fund) [[^]](https://iaimpact.org/2025/05/13/indian-american-impact-fund-endorses-amish-shah-for-congress-in-az-01/) | Andrei Cherny Qualifying Endorsement | Brady PAC (National Organization) [[^]](https://bradypac.org/brady-pac-endorses-andrei-cherny-for-congress/) | Cherny Endorsement Date Provided | No (date not specified) [[^]](https://bradypac.org/brady-pac-endorses-andrei-cherny-for-congress/) | **Amish Shah is the first candidate to secure a dated, qualifying public endorsement** Amish Shah is the first candidate to secure a dated, qualifying public endorsement. Based on available web research, Shah received an endorsement from the Indian American Impact Fund on May 13, 2025, which fulfills the criteria of a national progressive organization with a PAC [[^]](https://iaimpact.org/2025/05/13/indian-american-impact-fund-endorses-amish-shah-for-congress-in-az-01/). This specific, dated endorsement positions Shah as the candidate with the earliest identified qualifying support among the three. Andrei Cherny has also received endorsements from national progressive organizations with PACs. Brady PAC, a national organization aligning with the specified description, has endorsed Cherny [[^]](https://bradypac.org/brady-pac-endorses-andrei-cherny-for-congress/). However, the exact date of this endorsement is not provided in the available sources, making a direct chronological comparison with Shah's dated endorsement challenging [[^]](https://bradypac.org/brady-pac-endorses-andrei-cherny-for-congress/). Additionally, Cherny was endorsed by Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego on June 18, 2024, but Mayor Gallego does not hold a statewide elected office [[^]](https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/18/phoenix-mayor-kate-gallego-endorses-andrei-cherny-for-u-s-congress/74131540007/). For Marlene Galán-Woods, information regarding qualifying endorsements is less specific in the available sources. Her involvement with the Women's Political Committee and a 'key endorsement' are mentioned [[^]](https://womenspoliticalcommittee.org/portfolio-item/marlene-galan-woods-3/). However, these sources do not detail any endorsements from a sitting Arizona statewide elected Democrat or a national progressive organization with a PAC, nor do they provide specific dates for such endorsements [[^]](https://womenspoliticalcommittee.org/portfolio-item/marlene-galan-woods-3/). ## Is AZ-01 Candidates' Digital Ad Spend on Abortion Access Trackable? Digital Ad Data Availability | Data from Meta/Google political ad libraries for July 2024 is not available [[^]](https://support.google.com/adspolicy/answer/15597837?hl=en). | Abortion Ad Budget Allocation | Percentage of digital ad budget on abortion access cannot be determined [[^]](https://support.google.com/adspolicy/answer/15597837?hl=en). | AZ-01 Democratic Primary Date | July 30, 2024 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2024_(July_30_Democratic_primary)) | **Digital ad spending data for Arizona's CD1 candidates is unavailable** Digital ad spending data for Arizona's CD1 candidates is unavailable. The requested information regarding the percentage of digital ad budget allocated to abortion access messaging by candidates in Arizona's 1st Congressional District for July 2024, and its geographic targeting, cannot be determined. Data from Meta or Google's political ad libraries for this specific district and timeframe is not available [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2024_(July_30_Democratic_primary)). The Democratic primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District is scheduled for July 30, 2024, featuring leading candidates Andrei Cherny, Andrew Horne, Conor O'Callaghan, and Amish Shah [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2024_(July_30_Democratic_primary)). Available information does not address specific digital ad spending on abortion. While the research included some general candidate positions, such as Amish Shah identifying as pro-choice [[^]](https://choicetracker.org/az/people/amish-shah/113246208), and details on broadcast television ad purchases, these resources do not provide the necessary digital ad spending information. For example, FCC filings for KPNX show television ad buys for Conor O'Callaghan for July 1-7 [[^]](https://interactive.12news.com/fcc/political/KPNX%**202024%**20POL%20FCC%20Back-Up%20Political%20Files/Conor%20for%20AZ/Conor%20for%20Arizona%**202931614%**207.1-7.7.pdf), Andrei Cherny for July [[^]](https://interactive.12news.com/fcc/political/KPNX%**202024%**20POL%20FCC%20Back-Up%20Political%20Files/Andrei%20Cherny/Andrei%20Cherny%202942169-**1%**20July%**202024%**20INV.pdf), and Andrew Horne for July 16-22 [[^]](https://interactive.12news.com/fcc/political/KPNX%**202024%**20POL%20FCC%20Back-Up%20Political%20Files/Andrew%20Horne/Andrew%20Horne%**202944663%**207.16-**7.22%**20REVISED.pdf). However, these relate to broadcast television, not digital platforms, and do not specify the content of the ads or the percentage of messaging dedicated to abortion access. ## How Do Campaigns Use Amish Shah's Border Security Votes? Vote Against Sanctuary City Prohibition | Amendment 5057 to HB2066 in 2020 [[^]](https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/03/fact-checking-amish-shahs-ad-about-immigration/75418839007/) | Vote Against Increased Human Smuggling Penalties | Amendment 5092 to HB2803 in 2021 [[^]](https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/03/fact-checking-amish-shahs-ad-about-immigration/75418839007/) | Vote Against Border Security Funding | Amendment 5093 to HB2803 ($30 million) in 2021 [[^]](https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/03/fact-checking-amish-shahs-ad-about-immigration/75418839007/) | **Rival campaigns target Amish Shah's border security votes** Rival campaigns target Amish Shah's border security votes. Rival political campaigns and super PACs are using Amish Shah's "no" votes on amendments related to border security, cast during his tenure in the Arizona House of Representatives, to portray him as either insufficiently progressive or weak on border security issues. The amendments in question included proposals to fund border security initiatives, increase penalties for human smuggling, and prohibit state or local governments from implementing "sanctuary city" policies [[^]](https://nrcc.org/2024/10/03/exposed-amish-shah-lied-about-voting-record-in-border-ad/). Negative ads target Shah's key legislative votes. Negative mailers and digital advertisements extensively cite specific votes cast by Shah during his time in the Arizona House of Representatives. This includes his 2020 "no" vote on Amendment 5057 to HB2066, which sought to ban "sanctuary city" policies. Also cited are his 2021 opposition to Amendment 5092 to HB2803, aiming to increase penalties for human smuggling, and his vote against Amendment 5093 to HB2803, which proposed an additional **$30** million for border security efforts [[^]](https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/03/fact-checking-amish-shahs-ad-about-immigration/75418839007/). Further scrutiny focuses on Shah's 2022 votes: Amendment 5202 to HB2802, proposing **$100** million in federal COVID-19 relief for the state's Border Security Fund, and Amendment 5203 to HB2802, which aimed to establish a "Border Security Enforcement Fund" and mandate legal action against the federal government on border security [[^]](https://nrcc.org/2024/10/03/exposed-amish-shah-lied-about-voting-record-in-border-ad/). Groups like the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and Dr. Abrams' campaign utilize these votes, interpreting them as Shah opposing border security initiatives to challenge his own campaign narrative [[^]](https://nrcc.org/2024/10/03/exposed-amish-shah-lied-about-voting-record-in-border-ad/). ## Can AZ-01 Democratic Primary Debate Impact PredictIt Prices? Primary Election Date | July 21, 2026, or August 4, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(July_21_Democratic_primary)), [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_4_Democratic_primary)) | Planned Election Coverage | "Candidates in Conversation" series by Arizona PBS [[^]](https://azpbs.org/pressroom/2026/04/arizona-pbs-candidates-in-conversation-az-votes-2026-election-coverage/) | PredictIt Market Data | Not available for this specific event [[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets), [[^]](https://www.predictit.org/daily-markets-wednesday), [[^]](https://www.predictit.org/) | **It is not possible to analyze post-debate market movements currently** It is not possible to analyze post-debate **market** movements currently. It is currently not possible to determine which candidate will demonstrate the largest single-day increase in their contract price on the PredictIt **market** following the first televised AZ-01 Democratic primary debate, nor to correlate any movement with a specific viral clip or soundbite. This is primarily because the "first televised AZ-01 Democratic primary debate" has not yet occurred, meaning there is no real-time or historical **market** data from PredictIt to analyze post-debate price fluctuations [[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets), [[^]](https://www.predictit.org/daily-markets-wednesday), [[^]](https://www.predictit.org/). Future debate plans lack specific dates and participants. While Arizona PBS intends to feature a "Candidates in Conversation" series as part of its "AZ Votes 2026" election coverage, indicating future debate-like events, specific details regarding their timing and participating candidates are not yet available [[^]](https://azpbs.org/pressroom/2026/04/arizona-pbs-candidates-in-conversation-az-votes-2026-election-coverage/). The Democratic primary election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District is scheduled for either July 21, 2026, or August 4, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(July_21_Democratic_primary)), [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_4_Democratic_primary)); however, these dates do not confirm any specific debate events or their outcomes. Without an actual debate having taken place, it remains unfeasible to identify corresponding viral clips or soundbites. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** November 03, 2026 - **Closes:** November 03, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/) - [How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?](/markets/elections/how-many-aipac-endorsed-candidates-will-lose-their-primaries/) - [Alaska Senate winner? (Person)](/markets/elections/us-elections/alaska-senate-winner-person/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.