# Alabama Republican Senate nominee?

In 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/alabama-republican-senate-nominee/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Barry Moore to be the Alabama Republican Senate nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Barry Moore is identified as Donald Trump's preferred candidate.** - Steve Marshall shows strong early fundraising from Alabama donors.
- Marshall secured the significant endorsement of the Alabama Farmers Federation.
- Moore's campaign has established 56 county coordinators statewide.
- Jared Hudson also established a comprehensive 67-county captain network.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 81c suggests overvaluation vs **78.1%** **model**, potentially overrating Trump's preferred candidate status.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Barry Moore | 81.0% | 78.1% | Donald Trump's preferred candidate and strong county-level organization give Barry Moore a significant advantage. |
| Steve Marshall | 3.1% | 4.8% | Steve Marshall shows strong early fundraising from Alabama donors and an endorsement from ALFA. |
| Jared Hudson | 17.0% | 16.7% | Jared Hudson lacks significant public endorsements, major fundraising, or widespread visible campaign infrastructure. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Barry Moore | 81.0% | 78.1% |
| Steve Marshall | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| Jared Hudson | 17.0% | 16.7% |
| Bruce Pearl | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mo Brooks | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Paul Finebaum | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Murphy | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Spratling | 0.1% | 0.1% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern over its history. The price has remained within a relatively narrow 12.6 percentage point range, fluctuating between a low of 78.0% and a high of 90.6%. This indicates a consistent market expectation. The most notable event is a significant 10.1 percentage point spike on April 17, 2026, where the probability jumped from 80.0% to 90.1%. However, with no specific news or context provided, the direct cause for this sharp, temporary increase in perceived probability is unclear from the available information. The price has since reverted to the low-80s, suggesting the event's impact was not sustained.

The market has established clear technical levels, with support around the 78.0% mark and resistance in the low 90s. The total volume of 10,696 contracts suggests considerable interest over the life of the market, but the sample data points showing zero volume indicate that trading activity may be inconsistent or clustered around specific events rather than continuous. This pattern of sporadic trading can sometimes lead to lower liquidity and sharper price moves on small volumes.

Overall, market sentiment has been consistently high and stable, with the price typically holding above 80%. This suggests a strong and enduring consensus among traders about the likely outcome of the Alabama Republican Senate primary. Despite the brief, unexplained spike to over 90%, the price has consistently returned to its baseline in the low-80s, reflecting a stable, confident, but not absolute, view on the eventual nominee.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 17, 2026: 10.1pp spike

Price increased from 80.0% to 90.1%

**Outcome:** Barry Moore

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Barry Moore wins the Republican Party's nomination for the 2026 Alabama Senate seat, with the outcome verified by state governments. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if he does not secure the nomination. The market opened on August 12, 2025, and will close either when Moore wins the nomination or by November 3, 2026, 10:00 AM EST, if he does not; payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing. The event is noted as mutually exclusive.

## Market Discussion

The market overwhelmingly favors Barry Moore as the Alabama Republican Senate nominee at 81%. However, some traders believe Jared Hudson, currently at 17%, has momentum and will experience rapid growth, potentially forcing a runoff with Moore. Steve Marshall is seen as a very distant third with 3.1% of the market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Barry Moore | 81% | 82% | 81% | $41,150.07 | $29,342.07 |
| Bruce Pearl | 0.1% | 1% | 0.1% | $2,736 | $2,011 |
| Jared Hudson | 16% | 17% | 17% | $25,911.42 | $23,194.42 |
| Jeremy Spratling | 0.1% | 1% | 0.1% | $290 | $290 |
| Mo Brooks | 0.1% | 1% | 0.1% | $930 | $512 |
| Morgan Murphy | 0.1% | 1% | 0.1% | $314 | $312 |
| Paul Finebaum | 0.1% | 1% | 0.1% | $688 | $658 |
| Steve Marshall | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | $38,128.76 | $20,110.76 |

## Which Candidates Show High-Level Communication with Trump's Orbit?

Trump's Preferred Candidate | Barry Moore for Alabama U.S. Senate [[^]](https://www.al.com/politics/2026/01/who-is-barry-moore-trumps-alabama-us-senate-pick-is-an-early-supporter-with-political-roots.html) |
Candidate Mar-a-Lago Engagement | Rodney Walker's campaign [[^]](https://www.alabamagazette.com/story/2025/12/01/news/rodney-walker-takes-senate-campaign-to-mar-a-lago/9364.html) |
Key Trump Campaign Advisors | Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita (Co-chairs) [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/3402227/chris-lacivita-homecoming-susie-wiles-trump-campaign/) |

**Barry Moore's campaign shows high-level contact with Trump's advisors**

Barry Moore's campaign shows high-level contact with Trump's advisors. Moore has been publicly identified as "Trump's Alabama US Senate pick" [[^]](https://www.al.com/politics/2026/01/who-is-barry-moore-trumps-alabama-us-senate-pick-is-an-early-supporter-with-political-roots.html). This designation directly signifies successful high-level communication and vetting through Donald Trump's advisory network. Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, who serve as co-chairs of Donald Trump's campaign [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/3402227/chris-lacivita-homecoming-susie-wiles-trump-campaign/), are central figures in managing his political endorsements and communications [[^]](http://tuscaloosanews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/12/donald-trump-susie-wiles-campaign-manager/74098026007/). Therefore, Moore's selection implicitly involves engagement with these key advisors.

Rodney Walker also engaged Trump's orbit through a Mar-a-Lago visit. Walker reportedly took his Senate campaign to Mar-a-Lago [[^]](https://www.alabamagazette.com/story/2025/12/01/news/rodney-walker-takes-senate-campaign-to-mar-a-lago/9364.html), which functions as Donald Trump's primary residence and a significant hub for his political activities. While the source does not explicitly detail specific meetings with Wiles or LaCivita during this visit, a presence at Mar-a-Lago for campaign purposes indicates an effort to engage directly with Trump's inner circle and senior advisors.

## How Did Bruce Pearl and Steve Marshall's Q1/Q2 2025 Senate Fundraising Compare?

Bruce Pearl Senate Campaign Status | Did not run for U.S. Senate in 2026 [[^]](https://www.al.com/auburnbasketball/2025/09/bruce-pearl-leaning-against-us-senate-run-report-says.html) |
Steve Marshall Total Raised (Q1/Q2 2025) | $406,208.57 [[^]](https://aldailynews.com/marshall-raises-406k-in-his-2026-bid-for-u-s-senate/) |
Steve Marshall In-State Contributions | Over 90% from Alabama donors [[^]](https://stevemarshallforsenate.com/press-release/steve-marshall-raises-over-400000-in-first-four-weeks-of-campaign/) |

**Bruce Pearl did not run, thus having no campaign filings**

Bruce Pearl did not run, thus having no campaign filings. According to reports published in September 2025, Bruce Pearl ultimately decided against running for the U.S. Senate in 2026 [[^]](https://www.al.com/auburnbasketball/2025/09/bruce-pearl-leaning-against-us-senate-run-report-says.html). As a result, his campaign had no FEC filings from Q1 and Q2 2025, meaning there are no details available regarding his campaign's finances, donor ratios, or specific amounts raised from in-state or out-of-state individuals for a Senate bid [[^]](https://www.al.com/auburnbasketball/2025/09/bruce-pearl-leaning-against-us-senate-run-report-says.html). Therefore, questions about the ratio of in-state Alabama donors to out-of-state donors for a Bruce Pearl campaign, or his total raised from Alabama-based individuals, cannot be answered due to the absence of campaign filings [[^]](https://www.al.com/auburnbasketball/2025/09/bruce-pearl-leaning-against-us-senate-run-report-says.html).

Steve Marshall's campaign raised over **$400,000** from mostly in-state donors. In contrast, Steve Marshall launched his U.S. Senate campaign and filed FEC disclosures for Q1 and Q2 2025. During his initial four weeks of fundraising, Marshall's campaign reported raising a total of **$406,208.57** [[^]](https://aldailynews.com/marshall-raises-406k-in-his-2026-bid-for-u-s-senate/). A significant portion of this funding originated from within Alabama; over **90%** of his contributions came from Alabama donors [[^]](https://stevemarshallforsenate.com/press-release/steve-marshall-raises-over-400000-in-first-four-weeks-of-campaign/). This indicates that less than **10%** of his contributions came from out-of-state donors, establishing an approximate ratio of at least 9:1 for in-state Alabama contributions to out-of-state contributions [[^]](https://stevemarshallforsenate.com/press-release/steve-marshall-raises-over-400000-in-first-four-weeks-of-campaign/).

Pearl raised no funds, while Marshall received substantial Alabama contributions. Comparing the two candidates, Bruce Pearl did not establish a U.S. Senate campaign committee and therefore had no FEC filings for Q1 and Q2 2025, consequently raising no funds for a Senate bid from Alabama-based individuals [[^]](https://www.al.com/auburnbasketball/2025/09/bruce-pearl-leaning-against-us-senate-run-report-says.html). In contrast, Steve Marshall's campaign raised **$406,208.57** during the same period, with over **90%** of its contributions coming from Alabama donors [[^]](https://stevemarshallforsenate.com/press-release/steve-marshall-raises-over-400000-in-first-four-weeks-of-campaign/). This implies that at least **$365,587.71** (**90%** of **$406,208.57**) of Marshall's total receipts came from within Alabama-based individuals and other Alabama sources during Q1 and Q2 2025.

## Did ALFA and BCA Endorse Same U.S. Senate Candidate?

ALFA U.S. Senate Endorsement | Steve Marshall for U.S. Senate (2026) [[^]](https://1819news.com/news/item/alfa-reveals-2026-cycle-endorsements-farmpac-backs-marshall-allen-robertson-hill-dobson-chen) |
BCA U.S. Senate Endorsement Status | None indicated for 2026 U.S. Senate [[^]](https://www.herehuntsville.com/alabama-elections-fundraising/) |
BCA ProgressPAC Funds | $4.2 million for 2026 elections [[^]](https://www.herehuntsville.com/alabama-elections-fundraising/) |

**The Alabama Farmers Federation backs Steve Marshall for 2026 U.S**

The Alabama Farmers Federation backs Steve Marshall for 2026 U.S. Senate. The organization, through its political action committee FarmPAC, has publicly endorsed Steve Marshall for the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election cycle [[^]](https://1819news.com/news/item/alfa-reveals-2026-cycle-endorsements-farmpac-backs-marshall-allen-robertson-hill-dobson-chen). Further solidifying this support, Marshall's campaign has launched a "Farmers for Steve Marshall Coalition," which explicitly highlights the backing received from Alabama FarmPAC [[^]](https://stevemarshallforsenate.com/uncategorized/steve-marshall-launches-farmers-for-steve-marshall-coalition-in-addition-to-alabama-farmpac-endorsement/). This indicates a clear alignment and coalescing of support from the Alabama Farmers Federation for Marshall in the upcoming Senate race.

Business Council of Alabama has not endorsed a U.S. Senate candidate. Research indicates that neither the Business Council of Alabama (BCA) nor its political action committee, ProgressPAC, has endorsed a specific candidate for the 2026 U.S. Senate election. While ProgressPAC has been active, successfully raising a substantial **$4.2** million for the 2026 elections [[^]](https://www.herehuntsville.com/alabama-elections-fundraising/) and endorsing various "pro-business legislative champions" and lawmakers for the cycle [[^]](https://www.bcatoday.org/bcas-progresspac-endorses-pro-business-legislative-champions/), these endorsements have not included a candidate for the U.S. Senate. For instance, ProgressPAC has supported candidates for other offices, such as Allen for Alabama Lieutenant Governor [[^]](https://alpolitics.com/bca-progresspac-backs-allen-for-alabama-lt-governor/), but no U.S. Senate candidate is mentioned in the available sources. Consequently, there is no evidence to suggest a joint coalescing of the Alabama Farmers Federation and the Business Council of Alabama around the same, or any, candidate for the U.S. Senate race.

## Which Alabama Campaigns Have Established County-Level Networks and Offices?

Jared Hudson County Network | All 67 counties [[^]](https://spotonalabama.com/al-politics/1381372/jared-hudson-names-county-captain-network.html) |
Barry Moore Coordinators | 56 county coordinators [[^]](https://yellowhammernews.com/barry-moore-unveils-56-county-coordinators-in-alabama-u-s-senate-bid/), [[^]](https://alpolitics.com/barry-moore-campaign-releases-list-of-56-county-coordinators/), [[^]](https://spotonalabama.com/al-politics/1378401/barry-moore-unveils-56-county-coordinators.html) |
Rodney Walker Physical Offices | 5 physical offices [[^]](https://www.alreporter.com/2025/11/18/rodney-walkers-senate-campaign-opens-five-offices-across-state/) |

**Definitive assessment of paid county-level directors is currently not possible**

Definitive assessment of paid county-level directors is currently not possible. While several campaigns have established broad county-level networks, a definitive assessment of investment in paid county-level field directors is not possible with the available information. Jared Hudson's campaign has publicly announced the broadest network, establishing county captains in all 67 counties in Alabama [[^]](https://spotonalabama.com/al-politics/1381372/jared-hudson-names-county-captain-network.html). Barry Moore's campaign has identified 56 county coordinators [[^]](https://yellowhammernews.com/barry-moore-unveils-56-county-coordinators-in-alabama-u-s-senate-bid/), [[^]](https://alpolitics.com/barry-moore-campaign-releases-list-of-56-county-coordinators/), [[^]](https://spotonalabama.com/al-politics/1378401/barry-moore-unveils-56-county-coordinators.html), and Steve Marshall's campaign has established chairmen in 47 counties [[^]](https://stevemarshallforsenate.com/uncategorized/steve-marshall-launches-statewide-county-chairmen-for-u-s-senate-race/), [[^]](https://spotonalabama.com/al-politics/1338599/steve-marshalls-us-senate-campaign-announces.html). However, the sources do not specify whether these roles are paid, which is a key criterion for measuring significant early investment in grassroots infrastructure as defined by the research question.

Specific physical office locations outside major metro areas remain unconfirmed. Information regarding physical campaign offices in counties outside major metro areas is also limited, preventing a comprehensive assessment of this investment metric. Rodney Walker's Senate campaign has opened five offices across the state by November 2025 [[^]](https://www.alreporter.com/2025/11/18/rodney-walkers-senate-campaign-opens-five-offices-across-state/). However, the research does not provide the specific locations of these offices, which prevents confirmation of their presence in counties outside the Birmingham, Mobile, and Huntsville metro areas by Q1 2026. No other candidates mentioned in the provided research are reported to have opened physical campaign offices.

## Who Holds Highest Second-Choice Support in Alabama Senate Primary?

Second-choice preference data for late 2025 polls | Not available (Based on [[^]](https://www.alreporter.com/2026/02/09/poll-finds-trump-endorsements-not-decisive-as-alabama-gop-primaries-remain-wide-open/)) |
Specific candidate second-choice percentages | Not found in provided research (Based on [[^]](https://www.alreporter.com/2026/02/09/poll-finds-trump-endorsements-not-decisive-as-alabama-gop-primaries-remain-wide-open/)) |
Polling timeframe covered by research | General polling for 2026 primary, not late 2025 specific second-choice (Based on [[^]](https://www.alreporter.com/2026/02/09/poll-finds-trump-endorsements-not-decisive-as-alabama-gop-primaries-remain-wide-open/)) |

**Specific second-choice polling data for late 2025 is unavailable**

Specific second-choice polling data for late 2025 is unavailable. The available research materials do not contain specific data on 'second choice' preferences from non-partisan polls conducted in late 2025 for the Alabama Republican Senate primary. Consequently, it is not possible to identify which top-tier candidate holds the highest percentage of second-choice support from the declared supporters of their primary rivals, indicating the strongest position to consolidate votes in a potential runoff election, based on the information provided [[^]](https://www.alreporter.com/2026/02/09/poll-finds-trump-endorsements-not-decisive-as-alabama-gop-primaries-remain-wide-open/).

Current sources primarily cover first-choice polling and general race status. While sources such as RealClearPolitics and various news reports cover general polling for the 2026 Alabama Senate Republican Primary, their provided abstracts do not indicate the presence of granular data on voters' second preferences [[^]](https://www.alreporter.com/2026/02/09/poll-finds-trump-endorsements-not-decisive-as-alabama-gop-primaries-remain-wide-open/). The specific timeframe of 'late 2025' for poll conduct dates, combined with the requirement for 'second choice' preferences, is not met by the accessible information, which largely focuses on first-choice polling and the overall state of the race as reported closer to the primary in 2026 [[^]](https://www.alreporter.com/2026/02/09/poll-finds-trump-endorsements-not-decisive-as-alabama-gop-primaries-remain-wide-open/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2026
- **Closes:** November 03, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.