# Peru presidential first round: margin of victory

On Apr 12, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/peru-presidential-first-round-margin-of-victory/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Keiko Fujimori will win the Peru presidential first round by a margin of 5-**10%**, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Ipsos Perú and Datum Internacional polls reliably predict election outcomes.** - Specific voter intention trends among key demographics remain undetermined.
- Keiko Fujimori's 'Cocktails Case' investigation was archived January 2026.
- The **market** price experienced significant volatility in mid-April 2026.
- Formal presidential endorsements for candidates like Fujimori are not detailed.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** **1.2%** exceeds 1c **market** (100x payout), following Fujimori's case archiving in Jan 2026.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Carlos Álvarez, ≥5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | Carlos Álvarez consistently shows low support, making a significant margin unlikely. |
| Keiko Fujimori, 0-5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | Keiko Fujimori's established base makes a very narrow victory margin less probable. |
| Keiko Fujimori, 10-15% | 1.0% | 1.2% | A victory margin of this size for Fujimori is unlikely given the competitive field. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Carlos Álvarez, ≥5% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Keiko Fujimori, 0-5% | 9.0% | 9.9% |
| Keiko Fujimori, 10-15% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Ricardo Belmont, 10-15% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Ricardo Belmont, ≥15% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Carlos Álvarez, 0-5% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Keiko Fujimori, 5-10% | 85.0% | 78.2% |
| Rafael López Aliaga, 0-5% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Rafael López Aliaga, ≥5% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Ricardo Belmont, 5-10% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Keiko Fujimori, ≥15% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Ricardo Belmont, 0-5% | 1.0% | 1.2% |

- Expiration: April 12, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price chart for this prediction market demonstrates a complete lack of activity or price discovery. The trend has been perfectly sideways, with the probability holding static at 1.0% since the market's inception. There have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. Given the flat price line and the absence of any provided news context, it is not possible to correlate any price action with external events or developments related to the Peruvian presidential election.

Trading volume for this market is exceptionally low, with only 187 contracts traded in total. This minimal volume, coupled with a price that has not moved, indicates a highly illiquid market with very little trader engagement or conviction. The 1.0% price level has acted as both the absolute support and resistance, as there has been no trading activity sufficient to move the price away from this floor. This suggests that the initial trades set the price at this low level, and there has been no subsequent interest to challenge it.

Overall, the chart suggests that market sentiment is dormant and assigns a very low probability to the event outlined in the contract. The combination of a static, low price and negligible trading volume indicates that participants either strongly believe the event is highly unlikely or that there is a general lack of interest in speculating on this specific outcome at this time. The market is effectively inactive, reflecting no new information or changing expectations.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 22, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 74.0% to 85.0%

**Outcome:** Keiko Fujimori, 5-10%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 21, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 89.0% to 74.0%

**Outcome:** Keiko Fujimori, 5-10%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 16, 2026: 44.0pp spike

Price increased from 35.0% to 79.0%

**Outcome:** Keiko Fujimori, 5-10%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if Keiko Fujimori's margin of victory in the first round of the Peru presidential election is between 5% and 10% (inclusive of 5%, exclusive of 10%), as verified by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE). Otherwise, the market resolves to "No." The market opened on April 11, 2026, and will close upon official certification of election results or by April 12, 2027, with settlement occurring only after certification and no rounding applied to the calculated margin.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Carlos Álvarez, 0-5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $18,304 | $13,292 |
| Carlos Álvarez, ≥5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $32,200 | $1,200 |
| Keiko Fujimori, 10-15% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $21,160 | $11,579 |
| Keiko Fujimori, 0-5% | 8% | 11% | 9% | $30,864.97 | $13,678.12 |
| Keiko Fujimori, ≥15% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $6,465 | $2,480 |
| Keiko Fujimori, 5-10% | 89% | 97% | 85% | $12,167.63 | $5,626.39 |
| Rafael López Aliaga, 0-5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $10,597.03 | $10,061 |
| Rafael López Aliaga, ≥5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $8,858 | $7,850 |
| Ricardo Belmont, 10-15% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $19,624 | $9,400 |
| Ricardo Belmont, 0-5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $4,352 | $4,131 |
| Ricardo Belmont, ≥15% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $19,624 | $9,388 |
| Ricardo Belmont, 5-10% | 0% | 1% | 1% | $8,065 | $8,053 |

## What Do Recent Polls Reveal About Peru's 2026 Election?

Lima (Ipsos, March 2026) | Keiko Fujimori 16.5%, Rafael López Aliaga 13.5% [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/segundo-simulacro-nacional-y-encuesta-de-intencion-de-voto-marzo-2026-2-encuesta-peru-21-ipsos) |
Lima (Datum, March 2026) | Rafael López Aliaga 15.6%, Keiko Fujimori 13.2% [[^]](https://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/03/16/elecciones-2026-lopez-chau-lidera-encuesta-en-el-centro-y-sur-mientras-fujimori-y-lopez-aliaga-se-disputan-lima-y-callao-segun-datum/) |
Northern Coast (Ipsos, March 2026) | Keiko Fujimori 11.6%, Rafael López Aliaga 6.1% [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/segundo-simulacro-nacional-y-encuesta-de-intencion-de-voto-marzo-2026-2-encuesta-peru-21-ipsos) |

**Ipsos Perú and Datum Internacional consistently provide accurate election predictions**

Ipsos Perú and Datum Internacional consistently provide accurate election predictions. These firms have a reliable track record in Peru, with their predictions for first-round vote shares closely aligning with actual results in the 2011, 2016, and 2021 presidential elections. For instance, in the 2011 election, Ipsos predicted Ollanta Humala at **30.6%** and Keiko Fujimori at **21.5%**, while Datum projected Humala at **30.8%** and Fujimori at **22.1%** [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_Peruvian_general_election). The actual results for that election were **31.7%** for Humala and **23.6%** for Fujimori. Both polling firms frequently showed a slight underestimation of frontrunner vote shares but remained among the most reliable indicators of public sentiment [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Peruvian_general_election).

March 2026 polls show regional variations in candidate support. For the anticipated 2026 presidential election, recent head-to-head tracking numbers between Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga present differing regional outcomes. In Lima and Callao, Datum Internacional reported Rafael López Aliaga with **15.6%** to Keiko Fujimori's **13.2%** [[^]](https://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/03/16/elecciones-2026-lopez-chau-lidera-encuesta-en-el-centro-y-sur-mientras-fujimori-y-lopez-aliaga-se-disputan-lima-y-callao-segun-datum/). However, an Ipsos poll conducted in Lima Metropolitan during the same month indicated Keiko Fujimori leading with **16.5%** against Rafael López Aliaga's **13.5%** [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/segundo-simulacro-nacional-y-encuesta-de-intencion-de-voto-marzo-2026-2-encuesta-peru-21-ipsos). Beyond the capital, Ipsos's March 2026 regional data showed Keiko Fujimori ahead in other key electoral areas. In the northern coast region (La Libertad, Piura), Ipsos recorded Keiko Fujimori at **11.6%** and Rafael López Aliaga at **6.1%**. Similarly, in the southern highlands (Puno, Cusco), Ipsos data placed Keiko Fujimori at **9.9%** and Rafael López Aliaga at **5.2%** [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/segundo-simulacro-nacional-y-encuesta-de-intencion-de-voto-marzo-2026-2-encuesta-peru-21-ipsos). These figures underscore the distinct regional patterns of support for the candidates.

## What Are Peruvian C2, D Voter Intention Trends Since 2025?

Ipsos Poll Date | January 2025 [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/opinion-data-enero-2025) |
Sensor National Study Date | April 2026 [[^]](https://elecciones.sensor.pe/estudios/intencion-de-voto-en-el-peru-2026-estudio-nacional-abril/) |
Peru's Informality Rate | Highest in Latin America (February 2025) [[^]](https://perusupportgroup.org.uk/2025/02/ilo-report-confirms-peru-as-having-the-highest-rate-of-informality-in-latin-america/) |

**Specific voter intention trends for key Peruvian demographics cannot be fully determined**

Specific voter intention trends for key Peruvian demographics cannot be fully determined. The question regarding the trend in voter intention among Peru's C2 and D socioeconomic segments outside of Lima, and the highest growth rate among four specific candidates since January 2025, cannot be fully answered. This limitation primarily results from the absence of a consistent series of monthly polls for this precise demographic and the unidentified nature of the "four listed candidates" mentioned in the query.

Existing polling provides only limited snapshots for this crucial demographic. While some polling data exists, such as an Ipsos poll from January 2025 [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/opinion-data-enero-2025) and a national study by Sensor from April 2026 [[^]](https://elecciones.sensor.pe/estudios/intencion-de-voto-en-el-peru-2026-estudio-nacional-abril/), these offer distinct point-in-time snapshots rather than a continuous monthly trend. These C2 and D socioeconomic segments are particularly significant, given that an ILO report in February 2025 confirmed Peru's informality rate as the highest in Latin America [[^]](https://perusupportgroup.org.uk/2025/02/ilo-report-confirms-peru-as-having-the-highest-rate-of-informality-in-latin-america/). Although other polling organizations like Citopinion [[^]](https://www.citopinion.pe/download/6125/?tmstv=1772688390) also conduct surveys, direct access to the full content of these specific reports or a consistent series of monthly polls for the exact segment outside of Lima is not available, which makes a detailed trend analysis unfeasible. Therefore, without the names of the specific candidates and a consistent set of monthly polling data broken down by the C2 and D socioeconomic segments specifically outside of Lima, it is currently impossible to identify which candidate, if any, demonstrates the highest rate of growth in voter intention within this demographic since January 2025.

## Who Leads in Formal Endorsements: Fujimori or López Aliaga?

López Aliaga Regional Support | Majority only in Lima, no southern regions (2026 elections) [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/26/rafael-lopez-aliaga-solo-logro-apoyo-mayoritario-en-lima-regiones-del-sur-le-dieron-la-espalda-en-las-elecciones-2026-hnews-2067780) |
Fujimori Party Senate Seats | 22 seats, projected to lead (Fuerza Popular) [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/25/fuerza-popular-lideraria-el-nuevo-senado-con-22-escanos-y-juntos-por-el-peru-se-consolida-como-segunda-fuerza-hnews-889440) |
Fujimori's Collaboration Offer | Extended offer to López Aliaga [[^]](https://thenews.pe/keiko-fujimori-extiende-nuevamente-la-mano-a-lopez-aliaga-que-hay-detras-del-ofrecimiento-de-sus-personeros/) |

**Formal endorsements for presidential candidates are not explicitly detailed**

Formal endorsements for presidential candidates are not explicitly detailed. There is no specific information indicating which candidate, Rafael López Aliaga or Keiko Fujimori, is securing the most formal endorsements from influential regional governors or leaders of congressional caucuses outside their own party for the presidential election. While both of their parties hold prominence [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/peru-election-keiko-fujimori-sanchez-lopez-aliaga-ff83661d1c5c6895dc4f9a0acc56d56d), López Aliaga notably failed to achieve majority support in Peru's southern regions during the 2026 elections, securing it primarily in Lima [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/26/rafael-lopez-aliaga-solo-logro-apoyo-mayoritario-en-lima-regiones-del-sur-le-dieron-la-espalda-en-las-elecciones-2026-hnews-2067780). Conversely, Keiko Fujimori has extended an offer of collaboration to López Aliaga, signaling an attempt at consolidation within the right rather than receiving external endorsements [[^]](https://thenews.pe/keiko-fujimori-extiende-nuevamente-la-mano-a-lopez-aliaga-que-hay-detras-del-ofrecimiento-de-sus-personeros/). Her party, Fuerza Popular, is projected to lead the new Senate with 22 seats, establishing it as a significant political force [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/25/fuerza-popular-lideraria-el-nuevo-senado-con-22-escanos-y-juntos-por-el-peru-se-consolida-como-segunda-fuerza-hnews-889440).

A quantitative endorsement score is currently not feasible due to insufficient data. The available sources do not provide enough specific information to create a reliable quantitative 'endorsement score' to track the consolidation of Peru's fragmented political right. Although there are mentions of ideological alignment and legislative cooperation among right-leaning parties, including those of Fujimori, López Aliaga, Acuña, and Luna, on issues such as bicameralism and re-election [[^]](https://congrezoo.pe/votacion/2026/03/27/partidos-de-keiko-fujimori-lopez-aliaga-acuna-y-luna-votaron-por-la-imposicion-de-la-bicameralidad-y-la-reeleccion/), these instances do not constitute formal endorsements from governors or leaders of congressional caucuses outside their own parties for a presidential candidate. Therefore, without explicit declarations of support or detailed records of formal endorsements, constructing a dependable quantitative endorsement score is not presently possible based solely on this research.

## What Joint Political Move Did Belmont and Álvarez Make Post-Election?

Belmont's Digital Strategy | Engaged with youth on TikTok [[^]](https://www.elmanana.com/noticias/internacional/candidato-ricardo-belmont-se-apoya-en-jovenes-de-tiktok/6117402) |
Joint Political Action | Renounced politics following the election (La República) [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/14/carlos-alvarez-y-ricardo-belmont-renuncian-a-la-politica-y-dejarian-a-sus-diputados-electos-a-la-deriva-hnews-684488) |
Shared Post-Electoral Stance | Indicated a shared post-electoral stance (La República) [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/14/carlos-alvarez-y-ricardo-belmont-renuncian-a-la-politica-y-dejarian-a-sus-diputados-electos-a-la-deriva-hnews-684488) |

**Joint political action, not explicit social media analysis, indicates coordination**

Joint political action, not explicit social media analysis, indicates coordination. While explicit social media network graph analysis detailing informal coordination between Ricardo Belmont and Carlos Álvarez is not presented in the provided sources, media monitoring reports from outlets such as La República reveal significant joint political action. La República specifically reported that both Carlos Álvarez and Ricardo Belmont jointly renounced politics following the election, signaling a shared departure from the political landscape [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/14/carlos-alvarez-y-ricardo-belmont-renuncian-a-la-politica-y-dejarian-a-sus-diputados-electos-a-la-deriva-hnews-684488). This joint decision suggests a deeper, potentially informal, understanding or shared sentiment, even as Belmont was individually noted for his digital strategy, including engagement with young voters on platforms like TikTok [[^]](https://www.elmanana.com/noticias/internacional/candidato-ricardo-belmont-se-apoya-en-jovenes-de-tiktok/6117402).

Their joint action signifies a unified anti-establishment political front. The collective action of renouncing politics by both Belmont and Álvarez, as highlighted by La República [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/14/carlos-alvarez-y-ricardo-belmont-renuncian-a-la-politica-y-dejarian-a-sus-diputados-electos-a-la-deriva-hnews-684488), can be interpreted as indicative of a unified anti-establishment front. This move signals a rejection of traditional political engagement post-election, and by acting in concert, they projected a shared disillusionment or opposition to the established political system. This reported joint action provides the strongest indication of their combined political presence and potential anti-establishment stance, even though other reports detailed Belmont's individual campaign aspects and electoral defeat [[^]](http://www.elcomercioperu.com.pe/politica/ricardo-belmont-no-pasa-a-segunda-vuelta-las-razones-detras-de-su-derrota-electoral-noticia/).

## What is the latest legal status of Keiko Fujimori's 'Cocktails Case'?

Case Archiving Date | January 14, 2026 [[^]](https://diariocorreo.pe/politica/juez-se-allana-a-fallo-del-tc-y-caso-cocteles-no-va-mas-keiko-fujimori-noticia/) |
Ruling Authority | Constitutional Tribunal (TC) [[^]](https://www.tc.gob.pe/institucional/notas-de-prensa/tc-declara-fundada-demanda-de-habeas-corpus-de-keiko-fujimori/) |
Prosecution Appeal Rights | Right to appeal archiving decision retained [[^]](https://www.apnoticias.pe/peru/exitosa-noticias/caso-cocteles-fiscalia-puede-impugnar-archivo-de-proceso-contra-keiko-afirma-jose-domingo-perez-1483686) |

**Keiko Fujimori's 'Cocktails Case' investigation was definitively archived in January 2026**

Keiko Fujimori's 'Cocktails Case' investigation was definitively archived in January 2026. An oral trial for the case had previously commenced [[^]](https://andina.pe/ingles/noticia-peru-judiciary-starts-oral-trial-against-keiko-fujimori-and-others-in-cocktails-case-991538.aspx), but the Constitutional Tribunal (TC) ruled in favor of a habeas corpus demand filed by Fujimori, which effectively annulled prior resolutions related to the case [[^]](https://www.tc.gob.pe/institucional/notas-de-prensa/tc-declara-fundada-demanda-de-habeas-corpus-de-keiko-fujimori/). On January 14, 2026, the Peruvian Judiciary implemented the TC's sentence, definitively archiving the investigation against Keiko Fujimori and her political party, Fuerza Popular, in the 'Cocktails Case' [[^]](https://diariocorreo.pe/politica/juez-se-allana-a-fallo-del-tc-y-caso-cocteles-no-va-mas-keiko-fujimori-noticia/). This judicial action effectively dropped the proceedings against her [[^]](https://ground.news/article/peru-case-dropped-against-keiko-fujimori-heralds-new-presidential-bid_0a477f).

Despite the definitive archiving of the investigation, the Public Ministry retains the right to challenge this decision. Prosecutor José Domingo Pérez indicated that the Public Ministry could appeal or challenge the archiving decision [[^]](https://www.apnoticias.pe/peru/exitosa-noticias/caso-cocteles-fiscalia-puede-impugnar-archivo-de-proceso-contra-keiko-afirma-jose-domingo-perez-1483686). He also noted that any decision from a superior court could potentially be subject to a cassation appeal in the Supreme Court [[^]](https://www.ideeleradio.pe/lo-mas-visto/jose-domingo-perez-sobre-el-caso-cocteles-cualquier-decision-en-sala-superior-podria-ser-materia-de-casacion-en-la-corte-suprema/). However, as of early 2026, there is no active trial against Keiko Fujimori in this specific case that could lead to a verdict legally disqualifying her from the ballot before the National Jury of Elections (JNE) finalizes the candidate list in early 2026.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 12, 2027
- **Closes:** April 12, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.