# Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory

Minnesota's 2nd District

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/minnesota-s-2nd-district-margin-of-victory/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Democrats to win Minnesota's 2nd District by at least 1 point, with no actionable edge.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - District rating moved to Likely Democrat for the upcoming election.** - A D+3 PVI supports expectations of a tighter margin of victory.
- Very large DFL margins appear significantly less probable than the prior cycle.
- Angie Craig's 2026 Senate bid will create an open House seat.
- MN-02 primaries are scheduled for August 11, 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market**'s 94c is above the **87.6%** **model**, implying overvaluation given the open seat and tighter expected margin.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 48.0% | 30.8% | The D+3 PVI makes a margin of this size significantly less probable than the previous cycle. |
| Democrats, 10+ pts | 69.0% | 50.7% | The expected tighter contest reduces the likelihood of this moderate margin compared to the prior cycle. |
| Democrats, 4+ pts | 80.0% | 64.6% | The district remains DFL-leaning with a D+3 PVI, though the contest is expected to be tighter. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 48.0% | 30.8% |
| Democrats, 10+ pts | 69.0% | 50.7% |
| Democrats, 4+ pts | 80.0% | 64.6% |
| Democrats, 19+ pts | 15.0% | 8.7% |
| Democrats, 7+ pts | 73.0% | 55.4% |
| Democrats, 1+ pts | 94.0% | 87.6% |
| Democrats, 16+ pts | 47.0% | 30.0% |
| Democrats, 25+ pts | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Democrats, 22+ pts | 6.4% | 3.7% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market experienced an extremely rapid and decisive upward trend, moving from a starting price of 1.0% to its current level of 94.0% over a very short period. The price action is characterized by a massive spike from near-zero probability to a near-certainty level. This dramatic repricing appears to be a direct reaction to the definitive results of the 2024 general election. The provided context states that Representative Angie Craig secured a victory with a margin of approximately 13.5 points. The market's sharp ascent from 1.0% to over 86.0%, and then settling in the mid-90s, indicates traders reacted to this official outcome, which fulfilled the conditions for a "YES" resolution. The subsequent context regarding the 2026 race, where Representative Craig announced a Senate bid, does not seem to have influenced this market, which is focused on the margin of victory in the now-concluded election.

The trading volume provides further insight into market conviction. While total volume is moderate at 1,133 contracts, the sample data shows volume picking up as the price surged toward its peak. This suggests that as the election results became clear, traders moved in with confidence to trade on the near-certain outcome. The price has since stabilized at a high level, likely acting as a new support and resistance point around the 94.0% mark, as there is little uncertainty left to trade on. The market sentiment is unambiguously confident in a "YES" resolution. The price action reflects a shift from an earlier state of uncertainty to a current state of near-absolute certainty, with the market now fully pricing in the reported large margin of victory for the Democratic candidate in Minnesota's 2nd District.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by a margin of 13 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The margin of victory is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus that of the immediate runner-up (or winner if DP loses), with no rounding, and is verified by official election authorities. The market opens on May 5, 2026, and closes once certified election results are published, or by November 3, 2027, at the latest.

## Market Discussion

The 2026 election for Minnesota's 2nd District is an open seat as the incumbent is not seeking re-election for the House, in a district that has historically performed three percentage points more Democratic than the national average [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Democratic_primary))[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-2nd-congressional-district-race-2026/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483351)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota). Prediction markets indicate Matt Little is favored to win the Democratic primary, while State Senator Eric Pratt is the likely Republican nominee after Tyler Kistner withdrew from the primary in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-2nd-congressional-district-race-2026/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/mn-02-republican-primary-winner).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 1+ pts | 92.3% | 93.6% | 94% | $1,133 | $701 |
| Democrats, 10+ pts | 64% | 65% | 69% | $2,378.42 | $831.42 |
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 50% | 53% | 48% | $3,614 | $1,985 |
| Democrats, 16+ pts | 46% | 48% | 47% | $1,051 | $1,026 |
| Democrats, 19+ pts | 14% | 15% | 15% | $1,611 | $100 |
| Democrats, 22+ pts | 10% | 11% | 6.4% | $361 | $183 |
| Democrats, 25+ pts | 5.9% | 6% | 6% | $521 | $121 |
| Democrats, 4+ pts | 80% | 81% | 80% | $1,661 | $690 |
| Democrats, 7+ pts | 72% | 75% | 73% | $1,442 | $1,150 |

## How do the leading Republican primary candidates, Eric Pratt and Tyler Kistner, compare on policy platforms and perceived electability in a general election?

Tyler Kistner's 2026 CD2 status | Withdrew from the race [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/tyler-kistner-drops-out-2nd-district/)[[^]](https://www.fox9.com/news/tyler-kistner-withdraws-from-2nd-district-race-due-military-deployment)[[^]](https://www.hometownsource.com/sun_thisweek/community/apple_valley/eric-pratt-is-lone-2nd-district-gop-choice/article_e0596475-d69e-465b-bd24-38d17bc79f41.html) |
MN-02 Democratic General Election Probability | Around 84% (Polymarket) [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner) |
MN-02 Republican General Election Probability | Around 14% (Polymarket) [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner) |

**Policy platforms for candidates Eric Pratt and Tyler Kistner were not available for comparison**

Policy platforms for candidates Eric Pratt and Tyler Kistner were not available for comparison. Before Tyler Kistner's withdrawal from the Republican primary for Minnesota's 2nd District, a direct comparison of their policy platforms was impossible based on the provided information [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-republican-primary-winner/will-eric-pratt-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mn-02)[[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/mn-02-republican-primary-winner)[[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/tyler-kistner-drops-out-2nd-district/)[[^]](https://www.fox9.com/news/tyler-kistner-withdraws-from-2nd-district-race-due-military-deployment)[[^]](https://www.hometownsource.com/sun_thisweek/community/apple_valley/eric-pratt-is-lone-2nd-district-gop-choice/article_e0596475-d69e-465b-bd24-38d17bc79f41.html). During this period, internal odds for electability between Pratt and Kistner were close and fluctuated, with prediction markets reflecting varying crowd views on who was more electable [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-republican-primary-winner/will-eric-pratt-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mn-02)[[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/mn-02-republican-primary-winner). For instance, Kistner at one point held **55%** odds compared to Pratt's **39%**, while later Pratt was favored at **55%** against Kistner's **44%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-republican-primary-winner/will-eric-pratt-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mn-02)[[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/mn-02-republican-primary-winner).

Tyler Kistner's withdrawal from the race significantly altered the Republican primary landscape. Kistner later withdrew from the 2026 CD2 race, leaving Eric Pratt as the sole remaining Republican candidate [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/tyler-kistner-drops-out-2nd-district/)[[^]](https://www.fox9.com/news/tyler-kistner-withdraws-from-2nd-district-race-due-military-deployment)[[^]](https://www.hometownsource.com/sun_thisweek/community/apple_valley/eric-pratt-is-lone-2nd-district-gop-choice/article_e0596475-d69e-465b-bd24-38d17bc79f41.html). This withdrawal eliminated the possibility of a meaningful head-to-head general election matchup between Pratt and Kistner to evaluate [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/tyler-kistner-drops-out-2nd-district/)[[^]](https://www.fox9.com/news/tyler-kistner-withdraws-from-2nd-district-race-due-military-deployment). Regarding the general election itself for Minnesota's 2nd District House race, Polymarket reported an approximate **84%** **probability** for the Democratic candidate and about **14%** for the Republican candidate, indicating the Democratic incumbent was a strong favorite [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner).

## Which potential candidate matchups following the August 11, 2026 primaries are forecasted to produce the tightest versus the widest general election margins?

Matt Little Democratic nomination probability | 67% (Prediction markets) [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02)[[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02) |
Matt Klein Democratic nomination probability | 15% (Prediction markets) [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02)[[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02) |
General election forecast availability | Not available (post-August 11, 2026 primaries) [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02)[[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02) |

**General election forecasts for 2026 remain unavailable after August primaries**

General election forecasts for 2026 remain unavailable after August primaries. Current research indicates that there are no available forecasts for specific general election candidate matchups following the August 11, 2026 primaries. Therefore, projections regarding which matchups might produce the tightest or widest general election margins are not yet available.

The Democratic nomination race heavily favors Matt Little in current markets. Prediction markets indicate a primary focus on the Democratic nomination, where Matt Little is the frontrunner with an implied **probability** of **67%** to secure the nomination. His closest competitor, Matt Klein, lags significantly behind, holding an implied **probability** of **15%** [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02)[[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02).

## What do the latest FEC filings before the August 2026 primary reveal about the fundraising strength and cash-on-hand of the top Democratic and Republican candidates?

Top Dem Receipts | Matt Little, $716,806.80 (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN02230/) |
Top Dem Cash on Hand | Matt Klein, $334,262 (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota) |
Top GOP Cash on Hand | Eric Pratt, $139,691 (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota) |

**The latest FEC filings, current as of March 31, 2026, reveal key financial insights for MN-02 candidates**

The latest FEC filings, current as of March 31, 2026, reveal key financial insights for MN-02 candidates. Among Democratic contenders, Matt Little has raised the most overall with **$716,806.80**, concluding the period with **$299,089** cash on hand [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN02230/). In contrast, Matt Klein holds the highest cash-on-hand balance among Democrats at **$334,262,** having raised **$699,672** in total [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota).

Republican contenders exhibit different financial strategies regarding cash. Tyler Kistner recorded higher overall receipts at **$415,618,** but concluded with a lower cash-on-hand balance of **$27,522** [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota). Eric Pratt, however, despite raising less overall at **$259,426,** maintains a substantially larger cash-on-hand balance of **$139,691** [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota).

Forecasts heavily favor Democrats for the general election and specific primary leaders. Polymarket's MN-02 House Election Winner **market** currently favors the Democratic Party at **84%** to the Republican Party's **14%** [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner). In the primary races, Matt Little leads the Democratic primary **market** at **50%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02), while Eric Pratt is ahead in the Republican primary **market** at **55%** [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/mn-02-republican-primary-winner).

## To what extent is the Matt Klein betting scandal expected to impact the DFL's brand or the eventual nominee's performance in the 2026 general election?

MN-02 House Race Democratic Probability | 84% implied probability (Polymarket) [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner) |
Minnesota Senate Vote on Prediction Markets | 56-10 [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/prediction-market-ban-passes-minnesota-senate/)[[^]](https://kfgo.com/2026/04/30/minnesota-senate-passes-prediction-market-ban-with-broad-bipartisan-support/) |
MN-02 DFL Primary Probability | Matt Little 48%, Matt Klein 36% (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/market/will-matt-klein-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02) |

**The betting scandal involving Matt Klein shows no significant impact on general election dynamics for Minnesota's 2nd District**

The betting scandal involving Matt Klein shows no significant impact on general election dynamics for Minnesota's 2nd District. News coverage indicates no evidence that the incident has altered general-election polling or ratings for MN-02 [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-2nd-congressional-district-race-2026/)[[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/minnesota-second-congressional-candidate-caught-betting-on-outcome-of-his-election/601789514/). Prediction **market** probabilities for the overall MN-02 House contest continue to heavily favor Democrats, suggesting the scandal has not significantly impacted district fundamentals in these markets [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner). For example, Polymarket shows an **84%** implied **probability** for the Democratic Party winning the MN-02 House race [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner).

The incident resulted in administrative penalties and spurred state legislative action in Minnesota. The Matt Klein incident was resolved administratively, with Kalshi settlement terms including a **$539.85** fine and a five-year suspension [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/minnesota-second-congressional-candidate-caught-betting-on-outcome-of-his-election/601789514/)[[^]](https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/04/22/klein-suspended-from-prediction-**market**-after-betting-on-himself/)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/dfl-senator-matt-klein-prediction-**market**-bet-political-race/). Klein admitted his only bet was **$50,** made out of curiosity about winning the DFL primary [[^]](https://www2.startribune.com/minnesota-second-congressional-candidate-caught-betting-on-outcome-of-his-election/601789514/)[[^]](https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/04/22/klein-suspended-from-prediction-**market**-after-betting-on-himself/)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/dfl-senator-matt-klein-prediction-**market**-bet-political-race/). In justifying broader state action, Minnesota Senate coverage cited Klein’s wager episode as evidence of issues with prediction-**market** platforms [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/prediction-**market**-ban-passes-minnesota-senate/)[[^]](https://kfgo.com/2026/04/30/minnesota-senate-passes-prediction-**market**-ban-with-broad-bipartisan-support/). The bill passed the Senate 56-10, which may reduce the future perceived legitimacy of such markets rather than directly influencing general-election vote intention [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/prediction-**market**-ban-passes-minnesota-senate/)[[^]](https://kfgo.com/2026/04/30/minnesota-senate-passes-prediction-**market**-ban-with-broad-bipartisan-support/).

Klein's candidacy for the DFL primary remains unsettled despite the scandal. Despite the controversy, separate prediction-**market** tracking indicates the DFL primary nominee contest remains unsettled [[^]](https://polymarket.com/**market**/will-matt-klein-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02). For instance, one Polymarket event assigns Matt Klein **36%** and Matt Little **48%** for the DFL primary winner, suggesting the incident has not made Klein an inevitable nominee or entirely dismissed his candidacy [[^]](https://polymarket.com/**market**/will-matt-klein-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-02).

## How might the dynamics of Angie Craig's 2026 U.S. Senate campaign influence voter turnout and party enthusiasm in the open-seat race for her current House district?

MN-02 District Rating | Shifted from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (Cook Political Report) [[^]](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/minnesota-house/angie-craigs-senate-run-minnesotas-2nd-district-moves-solid-likely) |
Cook PVI for MN-02 | +3 Democratic [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-2nd-congressional-district-race-2026/)[[^]](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/minnesota-house/angie-craigs-senate-run-minnesotas-2nd-district-moves-solid-likely) |
Incumbency Situation | Open House seat due to Angie Craig's Senate run [[^]](https://www.mprnews.org/story/2025/04/29/dfl-analyst-looks-at-2nd-congressional-district-angie-craig)[[^]](https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/angie-craig-senate-run-to-set-off-political-chain-reaction/)[[^]](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/minnesota-house/angie-craigs-senate-run-minnesotas-2nd-district-moves-solid-likely) |

**Angie Craig's Senate bid shifts the House district's outlook**

Angie Craig's Senate bid shifts the House district's outlook. Her decision to run for the U.S. Senate in 2026 will create an open House seat in Minnesota's 2nd District, signifying the loss of "one of their strongest incumbents" for Democrats [[^]](https://www.mprnews.org/story/2025/04/29/dfl-analyst-looks-at-2nd-congressional-district-angie-craig)[[^]](https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/angie-craig-senate-run-to-set-off-political-chain-reaction/)[[^]](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/minnesota-house/angie-craigs-senate-run-minnesotas-2nd-district-moves-solid-likely). This development led the Cook Political Report to adjust the district's rating from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat, though Democrats are still considered “heavily favored” to retain the seat [[^]](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/minnesota-house/angie-craigs-senate-run-minnesotas-2nd-district-moves-solid-likely).

The open seat status anticipates heightened Democratic mobilization. The now "wide open" seat is expected to trigger increased Democratic voter mobilization to defend the position, despite the added risk of losing an incumbent [[^]](https://www.mprnews.org/story/2025/04/29/dfl-analyst-looks-at-2nd-congressional-district-angie-craig)[[^]](https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/angie-craig-senate-run-to-set-off-political-chain-reaction/). The district itself holds a Cook PVI rating of approximately +3 Democratic, indicating that a Democratic victory remains the most probable outcome, albeit with a narrower margin once the incumbency advantage is removed [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-2nd-congressional-district-race-2026/)[[^]](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/minnesota-house/angie-craigs-senate-run-minnesotas-2nd-district-moves-solid-likely). Current prediction markets continue to show a strong Democratic advantage for MN-02 House outcomes, aligning with the expectation that Democrats will likely hold the seat even in an open-seat scenario [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/zh-sg/predictions/event/KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The MN-02 primaries, scheduled for August 11, 2026, are an important fork in the margin forecast [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Democratic_primary))[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483351).** The candidate filing deadline is June 2, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_11_Democratic_primary)), with the vote-by-mail and in-person primary early-voting window running from June 26 through August 10 [[^]](https://www.sos.mn.gov/election-administration-campaigns/elections-calendar/).

**Further along the election calendar, the period for vote by mail or in person for the general election, from September 18 through November 2, is likely to move late campaign and polling-driven beliefs [[^]](https://www.sos.mn.gov/election-administration-campaigns/elections-calendar/).** The general election date itself is November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sos.mn.gov/election-administration-campaigns/elections-calendar/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483351), with some prediction markets, such as Polymarket's MN-02 House winner **market**, resolving around November 4, 2026, after official results are available [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner).

**Prediction market activity also serves as a catalyst.** Polymarket shows MN-02 winner odds skewing Democratic, with the "Democratic Party" as the frontrunner at around **80%** [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner), or approximately **84%** compared to the "Republican Party" at around **14%** [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/mn-02-house-election-winner). A reported prediction-**market** controversy involved DFL Sen. Matt Klein, who was suspended from Kalshi after betting on his own election on April 22, 2026 [[^]](https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/04/22/klein-suspended-from-prediction-**market**-after-betting-on-himself/)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-2nd-congressional-district-race-2026/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The MN-02 primaries, scheduled for August 11, 2026, are an important fork in the margin forecast [^] [^] [^] .
- The candidate filing deadline is June 2, 2026 [^] [^] , with the vote-by-mail and in-person primary early-voting window running from June 26 through August 10 [^] .
- Further along the election calendar, the period for vote by mail or in person for the general election, from September 18 through November 2, is likely to move late campaign and polling-driven beliefs [^] .
- The general election date itself is November 3, 2026 [^] [^] [^] , with some prediction markets, such as Polymarket's MN-02 House winner **market**, resolving around November 4, 2026, after official results are available [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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