# Iowa Senate margin of victory On November 3, 2026 Updated: April 28, 2026 Category: Elections HTML: /markets/elections/iowa-senate-margin-of-victory/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Republicans to win the Iowa Senate by 2 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Zach Wahls' campaign holds $1.25 million cash on hand by Q2 2026.** - Iowa's 2026 net farm income is projected to decline to **$3.55** billion. - Iowa Polls consistently underestimated winning margins in recent Senate elections. - Weakening farmer sentiment is a key factor impacting the election margin. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **0.5%** **probability** versus 0c **market**, citing Wahls' funding countered by Iowa's farm economy decline. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Republicans, 2+ pts | 0.0% | 0.5% | Weakening farm economy and farmer sentiment counteract lower Democratic campaign funding. | | Republicans, 4+ pts | 0.0% | 0.4% | Weakening farm economy and farmer sentiment counteract lower Democratic campaign funding. | | Republicans, 6+ pts | 0.0% | 0.3% | Weakening farm economy and farmer sentiment counteract lower Democratic campaign funding. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Republicans, 2+ pts | 0.0% | 0.5% | | Republicans, 4+ pts | 0.0% | 0.4% | | Republicans, 6+ pts | 0.0% | 0.3% | | Republicans, 8+ pts | 0.0% | 0.2% | | Republicans, 10+ pts | 0.0% | 0.1% | | Republicans, 12+ pts | 0.0% | 0.1% | | Republicans, 14+ pts | 0.0% | 0.0% | - Expiration: November 3, 2027 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics The price chart for this market on the 2026 Iowa Senate margin of victory displays a completely static and sideways trend. The contract has remained unchanged at its opening price of 54.0% probability. With only a single data point available, there have been no price fluctuations, spikes, or drops to analyze since the market's creation. The price range is nonexistent, as the opening, current, high, and low prices are all identical. Due to the absence of any price movement, no significant events can be identified as causal factors. The most critical technical indicator is the trading volume, which stands at zero contracts. This complete lack of trading activity signifies an illiquid market with no established trader conviction. As a result, no support or resistance levels have been formed, and the 54.0% price simply represents the initial offering rather than a market-tested consensus. The chart indicates that this market is currently dormant and does not yet reflect any collective sentiment or forecast regarding the election outcome. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa by 4 percentage points or more, otherwise it resolves to NO. The margin of victory is calculated as the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate/party immediately behind them, with no rounding, and verified by the official election authority. The market closes once the outcome occurs, potentially earlier if certified election results are published, but no later than November 3, 2027. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Republicans, 10+ pts | 21% | 29% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Republicans, 12+ pts | 13% | 21% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Republicans, 14+ pts | 4.3% | 13% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Republicans, 2+ pts | 54% | 62% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Republicans, 4+ pts | 46% | 54% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Republicans, 6+ pts | 37% | 45% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Republicans, 8+ pts | 29% | 37% | 0% | $0 | $0 | ## What Is Donald Trump's Approval Rating in Iowa for 2026? Sitting U.S. President | Donald Trump (for 2026 election timeframe) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump) | 2026 Iowa Poll Final Approval Rating | Not available in the provided research for the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll [[^]](https://login.desmoinesregister.com/PDEM-GUP/authenticate/?cancel-url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.desmoinesregister.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F2026%2F02%2F16%2Ftrump-approval-rating-maga-midterms%2F88648483007%2F&success-url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.desmoinesregister.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F2026%2F02%2F16%2Ftrump-approval-rating-maga-midterms%2F88648483007%2F) | Historical Approval/Election Correlation | Not available for Iowa midterm Senate elections since 2006 in the provided research [1-10] [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump) | **Donald Trump is identified as the relevant U.S** Donald Trump is identified as the relevant U.S. President for 2026. The research confirms Donald Trump as the sitting U.S. President whose "Second presidency" or "2nd Term (2025-2029)" is pertinent to the 2026 Iowa Senate election cycle [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump). However, the specific numerical approval rating from the "final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll before the election" for the 2026 cycle could not be determined. Access to the content of these relevant polls was unavailable within the provided sources [[^]](https://login.desmoinesregister.com/PDEM-GUP/authenticate/?cancel-url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.desmoinesregister.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F2026%2F02%2F16%2Ftrump-approval-rating-maga-midterms%2F88648483007%2F&success-url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.desmoinesregister.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F2026%2F02%2F16%2Ftrump-approval-rating-maga-midterms%2F88648483007%2F). Historical data is unavailable to correlate approval ratings with election margins. The provided web research lacks the necessary historical information to correlate presidential approval ratings in Iowa with the margin of victory or defeat for the President's party in Iowa's midterm Senate elections since 2006. Details regarding past Iowa Senate election outcomes and corresponding approval ratings from previous midterm cycles are absent from the available sources [1-10]. ## How Does Zach Wahls' Campaign Funding Compare to Past Challengers? Zach Wahls Cash on Hand | $1,250,000 (Q2 2026 FEC filing deadline) [[^]](http://delmarvanow.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/02/02/iowa-us-senate-election-2026-campaign-finance/88414452007/) | Theresa Greenfield Cash on Hand | $3,500,000 (June 30, 2020) [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00708164/1407960) | Mike Franken Cash on Hand | $2,500,000 (June 30, 2022) [[^]](https://eu.thespectrum.com/story/news/politics/2022/07/18/us-senate-race-iowa-chuck-grassley-mike-franken-how-much-money-candidates-have/10090455002/) | **Zach Wahls' campaign reported $1.25 million cash on hand by Q2 2026** Zach Wahls' campaign reported **$1.25** million cash on hand by Q2 2026. Zach Wahls, identified as the likely Democratic challenger for the 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa, reported **$1,250,000** in cash on hand by the Q2 2026 FEC filing deadline [[^]](http://delmarvanow.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/02/02/iowa-us-senate-election-2026-campaign-finance/88414452007/). His campaign is currently active in the race for the U.S. Senate seat [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6IA00272/). Wahls' cash on hand trails previous Iowa Democratic challengers at this point. This financial figure for Wahls is notably lower than what previous Iowa Democratic Senate challengers possessed at the equivalent point in their respective election cycles. For example, Theresa Greenfield, the Democratic challenger in 2020, had **$3,500,000** cash on hand as of June 30, 2020 [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00708164/1407960). Similarly, Mike Franken, the Democratic challenger in 2022, reported **$2,500,000** cash on hand by June 30, 2022 [[^]](https://eu.thespectrum.com/story/news/politics/2022/07/18/us-senate-race-iowa-chuck-grassley-mike-franken-how-much-money-candidates-have/10090455002/). ## How Did Iowa Voter Registrations Shift Before the 2022 Election? Dallas Co. Republican Change (Jul-Nov 2022) | Decreased by 42 (from 28,527 to 28,485) [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2022/CoJul22.pdf) | Polk Co. Democrat Change (Jul-Nov 2022) | Decreased by 375 (from 112,385 to 112,010) [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2022/CoJul22.pdf) | Linn Co. No Party Change (Jul-Nov 2022) | Decreased by 86 (from 45,716 to 45,630) [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2022/CoJul22.pdf) | **Future voter registration changes and full historical comparisons are not possible** Future voter registration changes and full historical comparisons are not possible. It is not feasible to determine the net change in voter registration by party affiliation for Dallas, Polk, and Linn counties between November 2024 and September 2026, as historical voter registration statistics do not include projections for future dates, specifically for September 2026 [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2024/SHNov24.pdf). Similarly, a complete two-year comparison to the period preceding the 2022 election (November 2020 to November 2022) cannot be fully conducted due to the absence of November 2020 data in the provided sources. Voter registrations generally declined for Republicans and Democrats in 2022. An analysis of the shorter period between July 2022 and November 2022 reveals general slight declines in both Republican and Democrat registrations across Dallas, Polk, and Linn counties. In Dallas County, Republican registrations decreased by 42, and Democrat registrations decreased by 85, while No Party affiliations saw an increase of 89 during this timeframe [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2022/CoJul22.pdf). For Polk County, Republican registrations decreased by 104, Democrat registrations by 375, and No Party affiliations by 19. Linn County experienced decreases across all affiliations, with Republicans down by 73, Democrats by 68, and No Party affiliations by 86 [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2022/CoJul22.pdf). Recent voter registrations show party affiliation totals as of November 2024. As of November 2024, the total voter registrations for these counties included Dallas with 14,037 Democrats, 29,869 Republicans, and 19,005 No Party affiliations [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2024/SHNov24.pdf). Polk County registered 114,846 Democrats, 79,273 Republicans, and 91,221 No Party affiliations. Linn County recorded 65,540 Democrats, 51,770 Republicans, and 48,154 No Party affiliations. ## What is the Outlook for Iowa's Farm Economy in 2026? Projected Iowa Net Farm Income 2026 | $3.55 billion [[^]](https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/FCTA/1529448.pdf) | Ag Economy Barometer (March 2026) | 113 [[^]](https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/March-2026-Ag-Economy-Barometer-Report.pdf) | Index of Future Expectations (March 2026) | 99 [[^]](https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/March-2026-Ag-Economy-Barometer-Report.pdf) | **Iowa's projected net farm income for 2026 shows a significant decline** Iowa's projected net farm income for 2026 shows a significant decline. The forecast for 2026 is **$3.55** billion [[^]](https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/FCTA/1529448.pdf), which is considerably lower than the income recorded in previous election years. In 2020, Iowa's net farm income was **$6.12** billion, and it increased further to **$7.13** billion in 2022 [[^]](https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/FCTA/1529448.pdf). This projected decrease for 2026 suggests a less robust agricultural economic environment compared to the periods leading up to the 2020 and 2022 elections [[^]](https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/FCTA/1529448.pdf). Farmer sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the agricultural economy. The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, a key indicator of farmer **confidence**, averaged 146 in Q3 2020 and 111 in Q3 2022 [[^]](https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/tables/). More recent readings in early 2026 show the barometer at 117 in February and 113 in March [[^]](https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/farmer-sentiment-rebounds-but-future-expectations-continue-to-slide/). Compounding this, the Index of Future Expectations also weakened, declining from 103 in February 2026 to 99 in March 2026 [[^]](https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/farmer-sentiment-rebounds-but-future-expectations-continue-to-slide/). Reports from this period consistently note a weakening future outlook and a continued slide in future expectations, pointing to diminished **confidence** in the agricultural economy's upcoming performance [[^]](https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/farmer-sentiment-rebounds-but-future-expectations-continue-to-slide/). ## How Accurate Are Iowa Poll Predictions for Iowa Senate Elections? 2014 Predicted Margin | 7 percentage points [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/11/01/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/18345157/) | 2014 Actual Margin | 8.3 percentage points [[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?class=2&elect=0&f=0&fips=19&off=3&year=2014) | 2020 Predicted Margin | 5 percentage points [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-greenfield-ernst-us-senate-race-voters/6055545002/) | **The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll consistently underestimated winning margins in recent Senate elections** The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll consistently underestimated winning margins in recent Senate elections. Across three available election cycles (2014, 2020, 2022), the poll's final predictions for the Iowa Senate race had an average absolute error of 1.67 percentage points when compared to the certified margin of victory. The average directional bias was -1.67 percentage points, indicating a consistent pattern of the poll understating the winning candidate's final margin in each instance. Specific election results illustrate this consistent underestimation by the Iowa Poll. In the 2014 Iowa Senate election, the poll predicted Republican Joni Ernst would win by 7 percentage points (**51%** to **44%**) [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/11/01/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/18345157/), but certified results showed her winning by 8.3 percentage points (**52.1%** to **43.8%**) [[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?class=2&elect=0&f=0&fips=19&off=3&year=2014), an absolute error of 1.3 percentage points. Similarly, for the 2020 Iowa Senate election, the poll projected Ernst leading Theresa Greenfield by 5 percentage points (**47%** to **42%**) [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-greenfield-ernst-us-senate-race-voters/6055545002/), while official results indicated Ernst won by 6.5 percentage points (**51.7%** to **45.2%**) [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-greenfield-ernst-us-senate-race-voters/6055545002/), resulting in an absolute error of 1.5 percentage points. This trend culminated in the 2022 Iowa Senate election, where the poll predicted Republican Chuck Grassley would defeat Democrat Mike Franken by 10 percentage points (**53%** to **43%**) [[^]](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/05/iowa-poll-senate-race-chuck-grassley-leads-mike-franken-election/69616642007/). The certified results confirmed Grassley's victory with a 12.2-percentage-point margin (**56.1%** to **43.9%**) [[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?class=3&elect=0&f=0&fips=19&off=3&year=2022), yielding an absolute error of 2.2 percentage points—the largest error in the analyzed cycles—and consistently underestimating the winning candidate's margin. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** November 03, 2027 - **Closes:** November 03, 2027 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?](/markets/elections/international/will-alberta-vote-to-secede-from-canada/) - [Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?](/markets/elections/trump/will-trump-be-allowed-to-run-for-a-3rd-term/) - [Brazil Presidential election winner?](/markets/elections/brazil/brazil-presidential-election-winner/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.