# Iowa's 1st District margin of victory

Iowa's 1st District

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/iowa-s-1st-district-margin-of-victory/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Republicans to win Iowa's 1st District by 3 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Prediction markets indicate a Democratic win is more likely in IA-01.** - The likely Democratic nominee appears to have a Q1 2026 fundraising advantage.
- Independent Michael Bridgford is expected to significantly impact the vote share.
- Bridgford's candidacy may make a comfortable victory harder for major parties.
- Democratic advantage indicated despite 'Toss-up' ratings for 2026.
- National political factors may influence the final vote margin in late 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **20%** **probability** is below 26c **market** price (3.8x payout), as an independent candidate tightens the race.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 26.0% | 20.0% | An independent candidate is expected to significantly impact vote share, making comfortable major party victories harder. |
| Republicans, 9+ pts | 9.3% | 7.3% | An independent candidate is expected to significantly impact vote share, making comfortable major party victories harder. |
| Republicans, 6+ pts | 18.0% | 13.9% | An independent candidate is expected to significantly impact vote share, making comfortable major party victories harder. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 26.0% | 20.0% |
| Republicans, 9+ pts | 9.3% | 7.3% |
| Republicans, 6+ pts | 18.0% | 13.9% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has experienced a dramatic upward trend, moving from a starting price of 1.1% to a current price of 26.0%. The most significant movement was a massive spike in a short period, where the price surged from 1.1% to a peak of 28.0% before pulling back slightly. This sharp repricing suggests the market is reacting to information regarding the district's competitiveness. The provided context, highlighting that the 2024 election was decided by an extremely narrow margin of approximately 0.2 percentage points, is the likely catalyst for this adjustment. Traders appear to be pricing in a high probability of a similarly close contest for the next election, rapidly shifting the perceived odds from very low to a significant chance.

The peak price of 28.0% has established an early resistance level, with the price finding some stability around the current 26.0% mark. The total traded volume is 1,453 contracts, but the sample data indicates zero volume during the primary price spike. This lack of volume during the sharpest move could suggest the adjustment was made by a market maker or a few large trades rather than a broad wave of participation, indicating that market conviction might still be forming. Overall, the chart reflects a significant shift in market sentiment. The market now assesses a roughly one-in-four chance that the margin of victory will fall within the parameters of the contract, directly reflecting the district's recent history as a highly competitive battleground.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Iowa's 1st District by 3 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The margin of victory is calculated as the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate/party that finishes immediately behind, with no rounding applied. Results are verified by the official election authority, and the market will close early if certified election results are published, otherwise by November 3, 2027.

## Market Discussion

Prediction markets are tracking Iowa's 1st District margin of victory, with Kalshi hosting a relevant market published on 2026-05-05 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ia01d), and Polymarket defining margin of victory as the absolute difference between top-two vote percentages [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-margin-of-victory). Related markets tracking the IA-01 winner indicate Democrats have an implied probability of about 69% to win, though these are distinct from specific margin-of-victory markets and are slated for resolution on November 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/ia-01-house-election-winner).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 26% | 27% | 26% | $1,453 | $403 |
| Republicans, 6+ pts | 18% | 19% | 18% | $528 | $78 |
| Republicans, 9+ pts | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | $1,281 | $30 |

## How did the fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Christina Bohannan compare through the Q2 2026 filing deadline?

Mariannette Miller-Meeks Q1 2026 Fundraising | $1.1M (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Mariannette+Miller-Meeks+just+disclosed+%241.1M+of+new+fundraising) |
Mariannette Miller-Meeks Q1 2026 Cash on Hand | $4.3M (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Mariannette+Miller-Meeks+just+disclosed+%241.1M+of+new+fundraising) |
Christina Bohannan Cash on Hand | $819,587.88 (as of 07/15/2025 filing) [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00787820/1902329/) |

**A direct comparison of Q2 2026 fundraising totals is currently unavailable**

A direct comparison of Q2 2026 fundraising totals is currently unavailable. A high-**confidence** comparison of Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Christina Bohannan's fundraising and cash-on-hand through the Q2 2026 filing deadline is not possible, as the retrieved results did not provide their Q2 2026 figures [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Mariannette+Miller-Meeks+just+disclosed+%241.1M+of+new+fundraising)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00787820/1902329/)[[^]](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-1q-2026-senate-and).

Available disclosures provide only outdated or partial financial information. For Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a Q1 2026 disclosure summary, filed on April 15, 2026, indicated **$1.1** million in new fundraising and **$4.3** million cash on hand at the close of the Q1 filing period. However, this information pertains to Q1 2026, not Q2 2026 [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Mariannette+Miller-Meeks+just+disclosed+%241.1M+of+new+fundraising). Similarly, Christina Bohannan's FEC-derived data showed cash on hand at **$819,587.88** from a Form 3 filed on July 15, 2025, which means this figure does not reflect Q2 2026 finances [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00787820/1902329/).

## What is the likely impact of independent Michael Bridgford's candidacy on the vote share for the Republican and Democratic nominees in the November 2026 election?

District Election Rating | Toss-up [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district) |
Bridgford Campaign Start | April 2026 [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district) |
Largest Voter Group | No party registered voters [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d0ycNnyOHE) |

**Independent Michael Bridgford’s candidacy complicates the 2026 Iowa 1st District election**

Independent Michael Bridgford’s candidacy complicates the 2026 Iowa 1st District election. His entry is expected to significantly influence the vote shares of both Republican and Democratic nominees in the already competitive "toss-up" race, as classified by The Cook Political Report [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district). Bridgford's participation is likely to amplify the inherent unpredictability of the contest, making a decisive victory more challenging for either major party [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district).

Bridgford’s campaign targets voters disillusioned with partisan politics. Initiating his campaign in April 2026, he aims to challenge the established two-party system and represent an "exhausted majority" of voters [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district)[[^]](https://qctimes.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/article_fb143362-eab3-4f22-9678-4623d55c60fa.html)[[^]](https://bridgfordforiowa.com/News)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d0ycNnyOHE). His platform focuses on popular, nonpartisan issues such as term limits and banning Congressional stock trading, a message that strongly resonates in the 1st District [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district). In this district, "no party" registered voters have become the largest demographic, growing considerably by drawing support from both major political affiliations [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d0ycNnyOHE). Given the historically narrow margins in district elections, Bridgford's participation could function as a "spoiler," potentially altering the outcome by diverting a meaningful percentage of votes from major party candidates [[^]](https://www.ipi.org/ipi_issues/detail/what-influence-have-independent-candidacies-had-in-the-history-of-us-presidential-elections)[[^]](https://heckeljc.sites.wfu.edu/papers/published/JTP.pdf)[[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/tags/1st-congressional-district)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG5mgoPVcCo).

Bridgford’s appeal could divert votes from both major parties. His anti-establishment stance may attract votes from moderate Republicans or those dissatisfied with the Republican Party's current direction [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district). This is particularly relevant as Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks has a history of narrow wins in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+4 [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary))[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa%27s_1st_congressional_district)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG5mgoPVcCo). Similarly, the Democratic nominee could see a decrease in votes if constituents feel the Democratic Party is not addressing their concerns, or if they are drawn to Bridgford's call for compromise and an end to political gridlock [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district)[[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/tags/1st-congressional-district)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG5mgoPVcCo). The ultimate impact of his candidacy will largely hinge on his success in mobilizing the expanding population of "no party" voters [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-04-16/independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-1st-congressional-district)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d0ycNnyOHE).

## Why do prediction markets favor Democrats to win IA-01 while outlets like the Cook Political Report rate it a 'Toss-up' for 2026?

Democratic Win Probability (IA-01, 2026) | 69¢ (~69% implied probability) [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/ia-01-house-election-winner) |
Cook Political Report Rating (IA-01, 2026) | Toss Up [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/ia-01-house-election-winner) |
Partisan Voting Index (IA-01) | R+4 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/ia-01-house-election-winner) |

**Prediction markets currently indicate a Democratic advantage in Iowa's 1st Congressional District (IA-01) for 2026**

Prediction markets currently indicate a Democratic advantage in Iowa's 1st Congressional District (IA-01) for 2026. This assessment contrasts with the Cook Political Report’s rating of IA-01 as a "Toss Up" for the same year, despite the district’s R+4 Partisan Voting Index [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086). Specifically, at least one prediction **market** contract values a Democratic win at approximately 69¢, implying a **69%** **probability** of such an outcome for the 2026 election [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/ia-01-house-election-winner).

Divergent predictions stem from differing measurement approaches used by each system. The core reason for this disparity is a fundamental measurement mismatch [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/accuracy)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/cpr-archives/how-accurate-are-cook-political-reports-race-ratings). The Cook Political Report utilizes categorical tiers, where a "Toss Up" designation means either party has a good chance of winning the election [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/accuracy)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/cpr-archives/how-accurate-are-cook-political-reports-race-ratings). Conversely, prediction markets directly aggregate buy and sell prices to derive precise implied probabilities [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/accuracy)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/cpr-archives/how-accurate-are-cook-political-reports-race-ratings). This methodological difference means that even when a race is considered uncertain, prediction **market** probabilities can still show a distinct lean towards one party, which explains the apparent difference in their assessments for IA-01 in 2026 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/accuracy)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/cpr-archives/how-accurate-are-cook-political-reports-race-ratings).

## What do post-primary polls from sources like the Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. show for the IA-01 general election matchup?

2026 IA-01 Post-Primary Polls | None identified for Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. [[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/23/republicans-hold-edge-in-3-of-4-congressional-races-over-democrats-iowa-poll-finds/75198136007)[[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007)[[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/03/21/iowa-poll-gop-congressional-candidates-have-edge-in-2024-elections-nunn-miller-meeks-hinson-feenstra/72774928007) |
Selzer Polling Operation End | November 17, 2024 [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/ann-selzer-ends-election-polls.html) |
2024 Iowa Presidential Poll Error | 16 points [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Selzer)[[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/ann-selzer-ends-election-polls.html) |

**Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co**

Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. will not conduct 2026 polls. No post-primary polls from this source have been identified for the 2026 IA-01 general election matchup, specifically after the June 3, 2026 primary [[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/23/republicans-hold-edge-in-3-of-4-congressional-races-over-democrats-iowa-poll-finds/75198136007)[[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007)[[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/03/21/iowa-poll-gop-congressional-candidates-have-edge-in-2024-elections-nunn-miller-meeks-hinson-feenstra/72774928007). This aligns with J. Ann Selzer's announcement on November 17, 2024, that her election polling operation would conclude [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/ann-selzer-ends-election-polls.html).

Selzer's decision followed significant inaccuracies in 2024 polling. The termination of the polling operation was prompted by a 16-point error in the final 2024 Iowa presidential poll [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Selzer)[[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/ann-selzer-ends-election-polls.html). For instance, in the 2024 IA-01 race, a final Selzer poll conducted from October 28-31 indicated **53%** support for the Democrat (Bohannan) and **37%** for the Republican (Miller-Meeks), with a margin of error of +/-**7%** [[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007). However, Miller-Meeks ultimately won that election by approximately **0.2%** [[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007), highlighting a significant discrepancy in the poll's projection.

## How might the national political environment and presidential approval ratings in late 2026 influence the final vote margin in Iowa's 1st District?

Average House seats lost by president's party in midterms | 26 [[^]](https://cardinalscholar.bsu.edu/bitstreams/31824ecb-bd50-4d45-ba7c-a994a7a78db4/download)[[^]](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11373587/) |
Iowa's 1st District PVI | R+4 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa%27s_1st_congressional_district) |
Miller-Meeks' 2020 victory margin in IA-01 | 6 votes [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2024-11-05/1st-congressional-district-2024-election-miller-meeks-bohannan) |

**National political factors significantly shape midterm election outcomes, especially presidential approval**

National political factors significantly shape midterm election outcomes, especially presidential approval. The national political environment and the sitting president's approval ratings are crucial determinants for midterm elections, which often serve as a referendum on the president and their party [[^]](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.07545)[[^]](https://www.gmfus.org/news/us-public-opinion-and-midterm-congressional-elections)[[^]](https://study.com/academy/lesson/national-forces-that-influence-congressional-elections.html)[[^]](https://surface.syr.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2740&context=honors_capstone)[[^]](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/07/25/when-voters-think-about-congressional-elections-they-increasingly-think-first-about-the-president/)[[^]](https://cardinalscholar.bsu.edu/bitstreams/31824ecb-bd50-4d45-ba7c-a994a7a78db4/download)[[^]](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11373587/). Historically, the president's party typically loses an average of 26 seats in the House during midterm cycles, particularly when approval ratings are low or voters express dissatisfaction with the economy or the nation's direction [[^]](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.07545)[[^]](https://www.gmfus.org/news/us-public-opinion-and-midterm-congressional-elections)[[^]](https://study.com/academy/lesson/national-forces-that-influence-congressional-elections.html)[[^]](https://surface.syr.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2740&context=honors_capstone)[[^]](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/07/25/when-voters-think-about-congressional-elections-they-increasingly-think-first-about-the-president/)[[^]](https://cardinalscholar.bsu.edu/bitstreams/31824ecb-bd50-4d45-ba7c-a994a7a78db4/download)[[^]](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11373587/). Congressional elections have grown increasingly nationalized, causing voters to frequently evaluate candidates based on their perception of the president and national parties. This trend, combined with increased partisan polarization, means the overall national mood and presidential approval substantially influence individual district outcomes by reducing split-ticket voting [[^]](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/07/25/when-voters-think-about-congressional-elections-they-increasingly-think-first-about-the-president/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clUQI_T3k7E)[[^]](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11373587/). Forecasts for 2026 indicate potential challenges such as slow legislative progress, heightened political conflict, international discord, and concerns over economic difficulty, rising taxes, and crime rates, all of which could affect the national environment [[^]](https://www.im.natixis.com/en-us/insights/macro-views/2025/one-big-thing-political-predictions-for-2026)[[^]](https://news.gallup.com/poll/700448/americans-predict-challenging-2026-across-dimensions.aspx).

Iowa's 1st District is highly sensitive to the national political climate. The final vote margin in Iowa's 1st District in 2026 is anticipated to be significantly influenced by the national environment, especially since there is no incumbent in the Democratic primary [[^]](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/07/25/when-voters-think-about-congressional-elections-they-increasingly-think-first-about-the-president/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026). The district itself carries a slight Republican lean, with a Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+4 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa%27s_1st_congressional_district). This district has a history of extremely close electoral contests; for example, the Republican incumbent, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, won in 2020 by just six votes and secured re-election in 2024 by less than a percentage point after a recount, having been rated as a "toss-up" in 2024 [[^]](https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2024-11-05/1st-congressional-district-2024-election-miller-meeks-bohannan).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key dates for the Iowa’s 1st Congressional District election in 2026 include the primary on June 2, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/cal3yr.pdf)[[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/three-year-election-calendar).** The Lines.com prediction-**market** tracker indicates a ~**69%** win **probability** for the "Democratic Party" [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/ia-01-house-election-winner), with resolution expected on or around November 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/ia-01-house-election-winner). Kalshi’s IA-01 midterm margin-of-victory contract is structured around a threshold where Democrats win by 3+ points in Iowa’s 1st district [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ia01d). These electoral milestones are crucial for potential **market** movements.

**Fundraising results for the Jan 1–Mar 31, 2026 period show Christina Bohannan raised about $2.09M, exceeding Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ $1.49M [[^]](https://www.ktvo.com/news/local/iowa-democrats-outraise-gop-incumbents-in-2-house-races-hinson-leads-in-senate-funds/article_608ef596-0c3b-58f0-90b1-bd81cafd9fc5.html).** However, Mariannette Miller-Meeks still ended the quarter with more cash on hand, totaling **$4.32M** compared to Bohannan’s ~**$4.0M** [[^]](https://www.ktvo.com/news/local/iowa-democrats-outraise-gop-incumbents-in-2-house-races-hinson-leads-in-senate-funds/article_608ef596-0c3b-58f0-90b1-bd81cafd9fc5.html). Future fundraising reports and their impact on candidates' financial positions will be significant catalysts for **market** probabilities.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Key dates for the Iowa’s 1st Congressional District election in 2026 include the primary on June 2, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- The Lines.com prediction-**market** tracker indicates a ~**69%** win **probability** for the "Democratic Party" [^] , with resolution expected on or around November 4, 2026 [^] .
- Kalshi’s IA-01 midterm margin-of-victory contract is structured around a threshold where Democrats win by 3+ points in Iowa’s 1st district [^] .
- These electoral milestones are crucial for potential **market** movements.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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