# Who will win the next Greek general election?

In 2027

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: International elections

HTML: /markets/elections/international-elections/who-will-win-the-next-greek-general-election/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** assigns meaningfully higher odds than the **market** for New Democracy to win the next Greek general election, with the **model** at **89.7%** versus the **market**'s **77.0%**.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- New Democracy leads polls, but its support declined near bonus threshold.** SYRIZA's support dramatically declined since June 2023, now 4-**7%**.
   PASOK-KINAL shows limited gains, solidifying second place behind New Democracy.
   The electoral system favors single-party majorities, despite growing fragmentation.
*   A party likely needs approximately **38%** of the vote for a single-party majority.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **89.7%** for New Democracy is 12.7 pts above 77c **market**, implying 1.3x payout despite declining support near bonus threshold.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| New Democracy | 77.0% | 89.7% | New Democracy has an evidence score of +1 for the next election. |
| SYRIZA | 0.5% | 0.4% | SYRIZA lacks specific justification for a potential victory in the research excerpt. |
| PASOK-KINAL | 9.9% | 9.8% | PASOK-KINAL lacks specific justification for electoral success in the research excerpt. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| New Democracy | 77.0% | 89.7% |
| SYRIZA | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| PASOK-KINAL | 9.9% | 9.8% |

- Expiration: July 30, 2028

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market's price action is characterized by stability and a lack of significant volatility. The contract for a New Democracy (ND) party victory has traded in a narrow 7-point range, between 74.0% and 81.0%, indicating a strong consensus among traders. The overall trend is sideways, with the price opening at a high of 81.0% before settling around the current 77.0% level. This initial high probability likely reflects the strong position of the incumbent ND party, which is reported to have secured an absolute majority in the previous election. Key price levels have formed with apparent resistance at the 81.0% peak and support in the mid-70s range where the price has spent considerable time.

The most notable price movement was the early drop from 81.0% to 77.0%. The provided context does not point to a specific news event causing this adjustment; rather, it may represent an initial calibration of odds as the market found its equilibrium. The trading volume of 2,186 contracts is spread across many data points, suggesting consistent but not frantic activity. The absence of large volume spikes corresponding with price changes implies that market sentiment has not been meaningfully challenged by recent developments, such as the discussion about a potential earlier election date. The conviction remains high and stable.

Overall, the chart suggests a strong and unwavering market sentiment in favor of a New Democracy victory in the next general election. The high probability, consistently holding above 74.0%, signals that traders view ND as the clear favorite. The sideways trend indicates that the market has priced in the current political landscape and is now in a holding pattern, likely awaiting a significant new catalyst to cause any major reassessment of the odds.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if New Democracy wins the next Greek general election in 2027 by securing the most seats, or by tie-breaking rules if seats are tied. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened July 15, 2025, and closes after the outcome or by July 30, 2028, with results verified by the Ministry of Interior; it remains open for up to two years if the election is postponed.

## Market Discussion

Prediction market odds strongly favor New Democracy as the likely winner of the next Greek general election, with an implied probability of 75.5% [[^]](https://www.oddsbridge.app/event/who-will-win-the-next-greek-general-election)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgreeceparli/greece-parliament/kxgreeceparli-27)[[^]](https://www.solflare.com/prediction/politics/event/KXGREECEPARLI-27/). A May 4, 2026 opinion poll reported that 54.4% of respondents believe New Democracy will win, showing a 16.8-point lead over PASOK [[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/05/04/opinion-poll-survey-nd-at-31-2-with-a-16-8-point-lead-over-pasok-other-party-rises-to-12-6-what-they-say-about-tsipras-karystianou/). Recent commentary from May 8, 2026, further describes New Democracy as the leading party, with PASOK seen as unlikely to overtake its dominance [[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/05/08/gerakis-to-protothema-nd-must-focus-on-those-who-voted-for-it-in-2023-the-race-for-second-place-and-the-trends-for-tsipras-and-karystianou/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| New Democracy | 77% | 80% | 77% | $2,911.91 | $1,756.91 |
| PASOK-KINAL | 4.3% | 9% | 9.9% | $168.42 | $17.42 |
| SYRIZA | 0.4% | 7% | 0.5% | $1,268 | $1,160 |

## What political or economic catalysts could prompt Prime Minister Mitsotakis to call for an early general election in 2026?

Key Political Scandals | OPEKEPE subsidy-corruption and Predator wiretapping scandals (Spring 2026) [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1300183/revived-talk-of-early-polls-in-scandals-wake/) |
Economic Risk Factors | Higher oil/gas prices, inflation, transport, and energy costs (Middle East war) [[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/576430/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-could-hit-greece-s-economy)[[^]](https://en.parapolitika.gr/economy/1245/six-risks-to-greek-economy-from-middle-east-crisis/) |
PM's Stance on Elections | Publicly rejected early elections; proponents suggest proactive call (2026) [[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/03/12/kyriakos-mitsotakis-i-categorically-reject-any-discussion-of-early-elections-due-to-a-recovery-in-opinion-polls/)[[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1300183/revived-talk-of-early-polls-in-scandals-wake/) |

**Political scandals, despite rejections, fuel early election speculation**

Political scandals, despite rejections, fuel early election speculation. Prime Minister Mitsotakis has publicly dismissed any discussion of an early general election in 2026, despite revived media speculation linking such a move to ongoing corruption and wiretapping scandals [[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/03/12/kyriakos-mitsotakis-i-categorically-reject-any-discussion-of-early-elections-due-to-a-recovery-in-opinion-polls/)[[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1300183/revived-talk-of-early-polls-in-scandals-wake/). Specifically, discussions in spring 2026 revolved around dynamics stemming from both the OPEKEPE subsidy-corruption and the Predator wiretapping controversies [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1300183/revived-talk-of-early-polls-in-scandals-wake/). European Chief Prosecutor Laura Kovesi emphasized the need to address OPEKEPE allegations involving "corruption, nepotism and clientelism," urging the lifting of parliamentary immunity for 13 lawmakers [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1301746/eu-prosecutor-flags-opekepe-corruption/). Concurrently, the Predator spyware controversy has persisted, triggering renewed debate and calls from the opposition for resignations and an early election [[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/583153/predator-scandal-haunts-mitsotakis-as-greek-parliament-reignites-wiretapping-row)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/spies-spyware-and-scandal-greeces-rule-of-law-in-parliament/)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/society/wiretapping-scandal-predator-target-list-comes-to-light/). Arguments for an early poll suggest it could be a strategic move to "derail" plans for new parties and prevent a "slow drip" of further scandal revelations before mid to late 2026 [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1300183/revived-talk-of-early-polls-in-scandals-wake/).

Economic instability, particularly from the Middle East, could prompt early elections. The conflict in the Middle East is cited as a significant factor with potential electoral implications [[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/576430/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-could-hit-greece-s-economy). Higher global oil and gas prices could quickly lead to inflationary pressure within Greece, negatively impacting its crucial tourism and investment sectors [[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/576430/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-could-hit-greece-s-economy). Analysis has identified inflation, transport costs, and energy costs as key channels through which economic strain could manifest [[^]](https://en.parapolitika.gr/economy/1245/six-risks-to-greek-economy-from-middle-east-crisis/). Although Greece's energy supply is currently secure, officials have noted that a prolonged Middle East conflict could substantially increase natural gas procurement costs due to tighter LNG markets, subsequently driving up domestic prices [[^]](https://news.gtp.gr/2026/03/05/greeces-energy-supply-secure-but-costs-may-rise-if-middle-east-conflict-persists/). These economic trajectories, alongside developments in political scandals, are expected to influence the incentives for Prime Minister Mitsotakis to consider calling an early election [[^]](https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/new-democracy-holds-double-digit-lead).

## What recent polling trends since the June 2023 election indicate a shift in public support from New Democracy to opposition parties like SYRIZA and PASOK?

New Democracy (June 2024 EU Elections) | 28.3% [[^]](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-data-yearbook/article/greece-political-developments-and-data-in-2024/4B7C0251D4056EFA5F38605B2BFA504F) |
SYRIZA (Recent Polls) | 4% to 7% [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/opinion-polls)[[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece)[[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/586314/greek-poll-signals-slipping-support-for-ruling-party-as-opposition-edges-forward)[[^]](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2025.1663569/full)[[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/opinion_polling_for_the_next_greek_parliamentary_election)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/metron-analysis-poll-nd-lead-of-13-6-points-limited-gains-for-pasok) |
PASOK (May 2026 Polls) | 14.8% to 14.9% [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/opinion-polls)[[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece) |

**New Democracy maintains lead despite declining support since June 2023**

New Democracy maintains lead despite declining support since June 2023. Since the June 2023 election, polling trends indicate a decrease in public support for New Democracy, though the party consistently maintains a substantial lead over other political parties [[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/586314/greek-poll-signals-slipping-support-for-ruling-party-as-opposition-edges-forward)[[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/05/07/two-new-polls-show-double-the-support-for-new-democracy-pasoks-needle-unmoved-tsipras-rising-karystianou-falling/)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/poll-most-greeks-back-eu-prosecutor-want-political-change/)[[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/opinion_polling_for_the_next_greek_parliamentary_election)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/metron-analysis-poll-nd-lead-of-13-6-points-limited-gains-for-pasok)[[^]](https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/mitsotakis-dominates-greek-polls-despite-pasok-surge-and-high-voter-apathy). Its performance in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, at **28.3%**, reflected a downward trend compared to its 2023 national results [[^]](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-data-yearbook/article/greece-political-developments-and-data-in-2024/4B7C0251D4056EFA5F38605B2BFA504F). Aggregated data from December 2025 showed New Democracy at **29%** [[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/opinion_polling_for_the_next_greek_parliamentary_election), while in May 2026, polls placed the party's support in the range of **24.5%** (raw voting intention) to **32.2%** (projected vote share) [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/opinion-polls)[[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/586314/greek-poll-signals-slipping-support-for-ruling-party-as-opposition-edges-forward)[[^]](https://en.parapolitika.gr/politics/201859/marc-poll-new-democracy-rises-above-32-as-mitsotakis-approval-hits-39-1/)[[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/05/02/marc-poll-for-proto-thema-new-democracy-rebounds-after-measures-and-macron-and-ahead-of-two-new-parties/). Despite these dynamics, the opposition remains fragmented [[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/opinion_polling_for_the_next_greek_parliamentary_election)[[^]](https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/mitsotakis-dominates-greek-polls-despite-pasok-surge-and-high-voter-apathy), with a high percentage of undecided voters and a broader sense of disillusionment with political leaders also evident [[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/586314/greek-poll-signals-slipping-support-for-ruling-party-as-opposition-edges-forward)[[^]](https://en.parapolitika.gr/politics/197034/gpo-poll-shows-new-democracy-drops-2-3-pasok-gains-ground/)[[^]](https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/mitsotakis-dominates-greek-polls-despite-pasok-surge-and-high-voter-apathy).

SYRIZA's support plummeted, allowing PASOK to solidify second place. SYRIZA has experienced a dramatic decline in public support [[^]](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2025.1663569/full)[[^]](https://feps-europe.eu/a-very-big-victory-for-pasok/); after garnering **17.83%** in June 2023 [[^]](https://ekloges-prev.singularlogic.eu/2023/june/v/home/en/parties/)[[^]](https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/4142/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2023_Greek_parliamentary_election), its support now hovers between **4%** and **7%** in recent polls [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/opinion-polls)[[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece)[[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/586314/greek-poll-signals-slipping-support-for-ruling-party-as-opposition-edges-forward)[[^]](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2025.1663569/full)[[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/opinion_polling_for_the_next_greek_parliamentary_election)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/metron-analysis-poll-nd-lead-of-13-6-points-limited-gains-for-pasok). Its June 2024 European Parliament election performance saw its support drop to less than half of its 2023 national polls [[^]](https://cmpf.eui.eu/country/greece/), a decline attributed in part to internal turmoil and leadership changes within the party [[^]](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2025.1663569/full)[[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/opinion_polling_for_the_next_greek_parliamentary_election)[[^]](https://cmpf.eui.eu/country/greece/). In contrast, PASOK – Movement for Change, which received **11.84%** in June 2023 [[^]](https://ekloges-prev.singularlogic.eu/2023/june/v/home/en/parties/)[[^]](https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/4142/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2023_Greek_parliamentary_election), has shown limited gains [[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/metron-analysis-poll-nd-lead-of-13-6-points-limited-gains-for-pasok). Recent polls in May 2026 place PASOK around **14.8%** to **14.9%** [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/opinion-polls)[[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece), with other polls ranging from **11%** to **16%** [[^]](https://www.dnews.gr/eidhseis/news-in-english/586314/greek-poll-signals-slipping-support-for-ruling-party-as-opposition-edges-forward)[[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/05/07/two-new-polls-show-double-the-support-for-new-democracy-pasoks-needle-unmoved-tsipras-rising-karystianou-falling/)[[^]](https://en.parapolitika.gr/politics/197034/gpo-poll-shows-new-democracy-drops-2-3-pasok-gains-ground/)[[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/03/10/new-democracy-leads-pasok-by-almost-20-points-in-the-polls-amid-the-middle-east-flare-up/)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/metron-analysis-poll-nd-lead-of-13-6-points-limited-gains-for-pasok)[[^]](https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/mitsotakis-dominates-greek-polls-despite-pasok-surge-and-high-voter-apathy). While some polls suggest a "modest resurgence" [[^]](https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/mitsotakis-dominates-greek-polls-despite-pasok-surge-and-high-voter-apathy) or "limited gains" [[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/metron-analysis-poll-nd-lead-of-13-6-points-limited-gains-for-pasok), others describe its polling numbers as "stagnant" [[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/05/07/two-new-polls-show-double-the-support-for-new-democracy-pasoks-needle-unmoved-tsipras-rising-karystianou-falling/). PASOK has, however, frequently solidified its position as the second-largest party, particularly benefiting from SYRIZA's disarray [[^]](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2025.1663569/full)[[^]](https://feps-europe.eu/a-very-big-victory-for-pasok/).

## How do the economic platforms of New Democracy, SYRIZA, and PASOK-KINAL compare on key issues like taxation, public debt, and cost of living?

ND Debt-to-GDP Target | 120% by 2030 [[^]](https://www.pdma.gr/el/component/phocadownload/category/1-%CE%B1%CF%81%CF%87%CE%B5%CE%AF%CE%B1-%CF%80%CE%B1%CF%81%CE%BF%CF%85%CF%83%CE%AF%CE%B1%CF%83%CE%B7%CF%82?Itemid=196&download=1318%3Ahellenic-republic-funding-strategy-for-2024) |
SYRIZA Tax-Free Threshold | €10,000 [[^]](https://www.syriza.gr/article/SYRIZA---THE-THESSALONIKI-PROGRAMME.html)[[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/in-depth/1210986/policies-of-main-parties-in-greeces-may-21-election/) |
PASOK-KINAL Bank Levy | 5% on profits > €400 million [[^]](https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/androulakis-presents-priorities-pasok-kinals-political-program)[[^]](https://pasok.gr/tropologies-ko-pasok-gia-ektakti-eisfora-pistotikon-idrumaton-kai-gia-enisxusi/) |

**New Democracy prioritizes tax reductions and prudent fiscal management**

New Democracy prioritizes tax reductions and prudent fiscal management. ND's economic strategy centers on reducing taxes, with a specific aim to eliminate the self-employed tax by 2027 [[^]](https://greece.vota.com/en-gb/parties/new-democracy/policies)[[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2024/04/10/the-2025-budget-hatzidakis-e870-million-support-package-with-pension-increase-tax-reduction-and-abolition-of-self-employed-tax/). Fiscal targets include achieving a primary surplus of **2.1%** of GDP for both 2024 and 2025, alongside a goal to reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio to **120%** by 2030 [[^]](https://www.pdma.gr/el/component/phocadownload/category/1-%CE%B1%CF%**81%**CF%**87%**CE%B5%CE%AF%CE%B1-%CF%**80%**CE%B1%CF%**81%**CE%BF%CF%**85%**CF%**83%**CE%AF%CE%B1%CF%**83%**CE%B7%CF%82?Itemid=196&download=**1318%**3Ahellenic-republic-funding-strategy-for-2024). Additionally, the proposed 2025 budget allocates an €870 million support package, which features pension increases and further tax reductions for citizens [[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2024/04/10/the-2025-budget-hatzidakis-e870-million-support-package-with-pension-increase-tax-reduction-and-abolition-of-self-employed-tax/).

SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL propose progressive taxation and debt relief. In contrast, SYRIZA's economic proposals include increasing the tax-free threshold to €10,000, lowering the Value Added Tax (VAT) on food to **6%**, and introducing windfall taxes on energy companies [[^]](https://www.syriza.gr/article/SYRIZA---THE-THESSALONIKI-PROGRAMME.html)[[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/in-depth/1210986/policies-of-main-parties-in-greeces-may-21-election/). Regarding public debt, SYRIZA calls for a debt write-off conference and a 120-installment repayment plan for outstanding arrears [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/in-depth/1210986/policies-of-main-parties-in-greeces-may-21-election/). PASOK-KINAL also advocates for progressive taxation and reductions in work-related taxes, alongside a **5%** levy on bank super-profits exceeding €400 million [[^]](https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/androulakis-presents-priorities-pasok-kinals-political-program)[[^]](https://pasok.gr/tropologies-ko-pasok-gia-ektakti-eisfora-pistotikon-idrumaton-kai-gia-enisxusi/). Both SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL support a 120-installment plan for addressing public debt [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/in-depth/1210986/policies-of-main-parties-in-greeces-may-21-election/)[[^]](https://www.reporter.gr/eidhseis/politikh/586857-Tropologies-toy-PASOK-gia-ta-%C2%ABkokkina%C2%BB-daneia-Ti-problepoyn).

## Which Greek polling organizations had the most accurate track records in predicting the outcomes of the 2023 general elections?

Most Accurate Pollster | Opinion (1.2 percentage points deviation) [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes)[[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes/opinion) |
Next Most Accurate Pollsters | Pulse RC and Metron Analysis (1.5 percentage points deviation each) [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes) |
Other Highly Accurate Pollsters | MRB (1.8 percentage points deviation) and RASS (1.9 percentage points deviation) [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes) |

**Opinion was the most accurate Greek pollster in the 2023 elections**

Opinion was the most accurate Greek pollster in the 2023 elections. According to PolitPro's accuracy check, which compared final pre-election polls to official results, Opinion achieved an average deviation of 1.2 percentage points [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes)[[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes/opinion). Following Opinion, Pulse RC and Metron Analysis also demonstrated high accuracy [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes). Each recorded an average deviation of 1.5 percentage points, both receiving a "Highly Accurate" rating [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes).

Several other Greek pollsters also achieved high accuracy ratings. In the same PolitPro ranking, MRB showed an average deviation of 1.8 percentage points, and RASS 1.9 percentage points, both earning "Highly Accurate" ratings [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes). Institutes like GPO were considered less accurate, with an average deviation of 2.1 percentage points [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/greece/polling-institutes).

## Under the current electoral law, what percentage of the national vote would New Democracy, SYRIZA, or PASOK-KINAL likely need to form a single-party majority government?

Majority vote needed | About 38% of national vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Greece) |
Hellenic Parliament seats | 300 seats [[^]](http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2125_B.htm) |
Maximum bonus seats | 50 extra seats at 40% national vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Parliament) |

**A party likely needs 38% of the vote for a majority**

A party likely needs **38%** of the vote for a majority. Under current Greek electoral law, a leading party would likely require approximately **38%** of the national vote to secure an absolute majority of seats in the Hellenic Parliament [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Greece). This legislative body is composed of 300 seats, which are allocated across 56 constituencies using a system of reinforced proportional representation [[^]](http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2125_B.htm).

The electoral system awards bonus seats to the leading party. This mechanism incorporates a sliding-scale majority bonus for the party that finishes first [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Parliament). It awards 20 extra seats to the leading party upon reaching **25%** of the national vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Parliament). An additional seat is granted for every 0.5 percentage points above **25%**, with the bonus capped at a maximum of 50 extra seats for parties receiving **40%** or more of the national vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Parliament). Conversely, no bonus is applied if a party receives less than **25%** of the national vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Parliament).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The prediction market contract for the next Greek general election (2027) resolves to "Yes" if New Democracy wins [[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-in/predictions/event/KXGREECEPARLI-27)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgreeceparli/greece-parliament/kxgreeceparli-27).** Currently, odds indicate New Democracy as the top outcome, with other major outcomes like SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL showing much lower implied likelihoods [[^]](https://www.oddsbridge.app/event/who-will-win-the-next-greek-general-election)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgreeceparli/greece-parliament/kxgreeceparli-27)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-in/predictions/event/KXGREECEPARLI-27). New Democracy is described as "optimistic" and maintaining a lead over PASOK ahead of the election season [[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/new-democracy-bruised-but-bullish-as-election-season-heats-up/). The Kalshi contract closes on 2028-07-30T14:00:00Z, although the Greek parliamentary election itself is scheduled before 25 July 2027 [[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-in/predictions/event/KXGREECEPARLI-27)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgreeceparli/greece-parliament/kxgreeceparli-27)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Greek_parliamentary_election)[[^]](https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/when-will-the-next-greek-parliament).

**Potential factors that could alter political competition closer to the election include scandals/investigations and the possible emergence of new opposition parties, such as those connected with Tsipras and Karystianou [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1301963/spokesman-downplays-election-talk-tsipras-return/)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/new-democracy-bruised-but-bullish-as-election-season-heats-up/)[[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/05/08/gerakis-to-protothema-nd-must-focus-on-those-who-voted-for-it-in-2023-the-race-for-second-place-and-the-trends-for-tsipras-and-karystianou/).** While these developments are highlighted as potentially influencing the political landscape [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1301963/spokesman-downplays-election-talk-tsipras-return/)[[^]](https://www.tovima.com/politics/new-democracy-bruised-but-bullish-as-election-season-heats-up/)[[^]](https://en.protothema.gr/2026/05/08/gerakis-to-protothema-nd-must-focus-on-those-who-voted-for-it-in-2023-the-race-for-second-place-and-the-trends-for-tsipras-and-karystianou/), the Greek government is reportedly downplaying speculation about snap elections [[^]](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1301963/spokesman-downplays-election-talk-tsipras-return/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** July 30, 2028
- **Closes:** July 30, 2028

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The prediction **market** contract for the next Greek general election (2027) resolves to "Yes" if New Democracy wins [^] [^] .
- Currently, odds indicate New Democracy as the top outcome, with other major outcomes like SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL showing much lower implied likelihoods [^] [^] [^] .
- New Democracy is described as "optimistic" and maintaining a lead over PASOK ahead of the election season [^] .
- The Kalshi contract closes on 2028-07-30T14:00:00Z, although the Greek parliamentary election itself is scheduled before 25 July 2027 [^] [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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