# Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election? in 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: International elections Foreign Elections HTML: /markets/elections/international-elections/who-will-win-the-2026-welsh-parliament-election/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Plaid Cymru to win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Vaughan Gething's low approval ratings hinder Labour's majority prospects.** - Right-wing vote fragmentation challenges any party achieving an overall majority. - Labour dominated the 2024 UK General Election in Wales with **49.3%** vote. - Reform UK's Senedd regional list support reached 23-**25%** by 2026. - Conservatives suffered catastrophic decline in the 2024 UK General Election. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **7.7%** **probability** vs **0.6%** **market** price for Another Party implies a +7.1pp gap and 166.7x payout. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plaid Cymru | 75.0% | 67.1% | Plaid Cymru shows relative stability, suggesting a consistent level of support. | | Labour | 0.6% | 7.7% | First Minister Vaughan Gething's low approval ratings impede Labour's path to an outright majority. | | Reform | 26.0% | 23.6% | Reform UK contributes to the fragmentation of the right-wing vote, limiting other parties' majorities. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Plaid Cymru | 75.0% | 67.1% | | Labour | 0.6% | 7.7% | | Reform | 26.0% | 23.6% | | Liberal Democrats | 1.0% | 0.5% | | Conservative | 1.0% | 0.5% | | Green | 1.0% | 0.5% | - Expiration: May 7, 2027 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market has experienced a significant and rapid downward trend since its inception. Opening at a 7.0% probability, the price plummeted to below 1.0% within the first week of available data. The most substantial movement was this initial drop from 7.0% on April 15 to 0.8% by April 20. Following this sharp decline, the price has stabilized and entered a period of low volatility, trading in a very narrow range between 0.6% and 0.8%. Based on the provided information, there is no specific news or external context to explain the cause of this initial, dramatic price collapse. The total volume of 518 contracts suggests a modest level of activity over the market's lifetime, but the zero volume on the sample dates indicates that recent price levels may not be supported by active trading, potentially reflecting low liquidity. The price has established a clear support level around the 0.6% mark, which it has consistently held since late April. The opening price of 7.0% serves as a distant historical resistance level. Overall, the price action reflects a strong and persistent bearish sentiment. The market's initial valuation was quickly and decisively rejected, and a strong consensus has since formed that assigns a very low, sub-1% probability to a "YES" outcome. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 April 22, 2026: 9.0pp drop Price decreased from 82.0% to 73.0% **Outcome:** Plaid Cymru **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to "Yes" if Plaid Cymru wins the 2026 Senedd election, defined as the party or formally registered coalition securing the most seats. In case of a tie in seats, the party entering government, or failing that, with the higher vote share, resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, the market resolves to "No". The outcome is verified by Senedd Cymru and resolved based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority, closing either upon declaration or by May 7, 2027, 10:00 AM EDT, with a potential extension for re-run elections if results are annulled. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Conservative | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1% | $2,693 | $1,197 | | Green | 0.4% | 4.3% | 1% | $2,687 | $2,386 | | Labour | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | $4,989 | $1,244 | | Liberal Democrats | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1% | $4,302 | $2,200 | | Plaid Cymru | 74% | 75% | 75% | $10,079.96 | $4,374.86 | | Reform | 26% | 27% | 26% | $4,797 | $3,736 | ## What is the Trend in Welsh Voter Satisfaction Post-2024 UK Election? Welsh Labour Voter Intention (May-June 2024) | 45% [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49723-voting-intention-wales-labour-45-conservatives-18-30-may-3-jun-2024) | Specific Satisfaction Data (NHS/Education) | Not available for 18 months post-2024 UK GE [[^]](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026) | Overall NHS Confidence in Wales | Lower than in England [[^]](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/11519-welsh-confidence-nhs-significantly-lower-england) | **The provided research lacks specific data and predictions regarding trends in Welsh voter satisfaction with the Welsh Labour government's handling of the NHS and education for the 18 months following the 2024 UK General Election** The provided research lacks specific data and predictions regarding trends in Welsh voter satisfaction with the Welsh Labour government's handling of the NHS and education for the 18 months following the 2024 UK General Election. The available YouGov articles primarily offer general Welsh political snapshots and Senedd voting intentions for periods extending up to early 2026 [[^]](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026). For example, a YouGov poll conducted between late May and early June 2024 indicated Labour's voting intention in Wales at **45%** [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49723-voting-intention-wales-labour-45-conservatives-18-30-may-3-jun-2024). However, these polls do not detail specific satisfaction levels concerning the Welsh Labour government's performance on either the NHS or education, nor do they project trends for the specified future 18-month period. Specific government satisfaction data for NHS and education is absent from the sources. While some sources address overall NHS **confidence** in Wales, noting it is lower than in England [[^]](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/11519-welsh-**confidence**-nhs-significantly-lower-england), this information pertains to general public **confidence** in the health service rather than specific satisfaction with the Welsh Labour government's management of it. Crucially, this data does not provide a predictive trend for the requested post-election period. Furthermore, none of the provided sources contain data or analysis directly pertaining to voter satisfaction with the Welsh Labour government's handling of education during the specified timeframe. Therefore, a comprehensive answer with specific facts, data points, and statistics on these trends cannot be formulated based solely on the provided research results. ## How did Welsh Conservative and Reform UK support change from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026? Combined Polling Average Q1 2025 - Q1 2026 | 37.0% [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election) | Reform UK Polling Share Shift | Increased from 18-19% in Q1 2025 to 23-25% in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election) | Welsh Conservatives Polling Share Shift | Decreased from 17-18% in Q1 2025 to 15-16% in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election) | **The Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK averaged 37.0% combined support on the Senedd regional list ballot from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election)** The Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK averaged **37.0%** combined support on the Senedd regional list ballot from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election). This figure is derived from eleven YouGov/ITV Wales polls conducted during this period. The combined support for the two parties exhibited fluctuations, ranging from a low of **34%** in April 2025 to a high of **40%** in March 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election). Reform UK's Senedd regional list support significantly increased, while Welsh Conservative support declined during this time [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election). Polling data from Q1 2025 indicated the Welsh Conservatives were polling around 17-**18%** and Reform UK around 18-**19%** on the regional list [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election). By Q1 2026, a notable shift was evident, with Reform UK's support generally rising to 23-**25%**, while the Welsh Conservatives' support typically declined to 15-**16%** [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election). For instance, a YouGov/ITV Wales poll conducted from January 12-16, 2026, recorded **16%** for the Conservatives and **23%** for Reform UK, totaling **39%** [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election). Another poll from March 21-25, 2026, showed **15%** for the Conservatives and **25%** for Reform UK, combining for **40%** [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election). This trend highlights a considerable transfer of support from the Welsh Conservatives to Reform UK over the specified timeframe. ## What Funding Narratives Surround Wales' UK Government Settlements? 2024 UK Budget Allocation | £1.7 billion for Welsh government [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0d151zdkzo) | Expert/Ministerial View on 2024 Budget | "Transformed" (experts); "Stability" but "fairer long-term funding" (ministers) [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cev9evk8xz2o) | Plaid Cymru Stance | Funding "short-changed" [[^]](https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/wales-short-changed-budget-opposition-32955288), "crumbs" [[^]](https://www.cwmbranlife.co.uk/wales-offered-crumbs-from-uk-spending-review-says-plaid-cymru); advocates "fair funding settlement" [[^]](https://www.tenby-today.co.uk/news/politics/plaid-cymru-slams-labour-for-failure-on-wales-fair-funding-832483) | **Welsh Labour will likely frame future funding positively, while seeking long-term reform** Welsh Labour will likely frame future funding positively, while seeking long-term reform. The 2024 UK Budget provided an additional £1.7 billion for the Welsh government, a sum experts described as having "transformed" Welsh ministers' finances [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0d151zdkzo). While acknowledging this "stability," Welsh Labour ministers simultaneously called for "fairer long-term funding" [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cev9evk8xz2o). A future UK Labour government's funding via the Barnett formula is anticipated to be presented positively by Welsh Labour, aligning with their ongoing advocacy for broader funding reform [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cev9evk8xz2o). Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has also defended the Barnett formula's importance for Wales, suggesting continuity in the funding approach [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cewydglzj99o). Plaid Cymru consistently portrays funding as insufficient, gaining significant media traction. The party is highly likely to characterize any funding settlement as inadequate, routinely asserting that Wales is "short-changed" [[^]](https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/wales-short-changed-budget-opposition-32955288) and describing funding allocations as mere "crumbs" [[^]](https://www.cwmbranlife.co.uk/wales-offered-crumbs-from-uk-spending-review-says-plaid-cymru). Plaid Cymru consistently advocates for a "fair funding settlement for Wales" [[^]](https://www.tenby-today.co.uk/news/politics/plaid-cymru-slams-labour-for-failure-on-wales-fair-funding-832483). This narrative, emphasizing Wales being "short-changed" and deserving "fairer funding," has achieved significant media traction, primarily propelled by Plaid Cymru's consistent advocacy [[^]](https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/wales-short-changed-budget-opposition-32955288). This prominence in Welsh political discourse and news coverage is further underscored by the Senedd's collective call for fairer funding [[^]](https://caerphilly.observer/news/1051239/senedd-unites-to-call-for-fairer-funding/). ## How Have Vaughan Gething's Approval Ratings Been Affected by Controversies? Vaughan Gething Net Favourability (June 2024) | -44 [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026) | Gething Favourability Drop (Oct 2023 - June 2024) | 20 points [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026) | Rhun ap Iorwerth Net Favourability (June 2024) | -8 [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026) | **Vaughan Gething's approval significantly dropped following campaign donation controversies** Vaughan Gething's approval significantly dropped following campaign donation controversies. A YouGov poll conducted in June 2024 indicated his net favourability rating plummeted to -44 [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026). This represented a substantial 20-point decline from his October 2023 rating [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026) and marked the lowest net favourability recorded for any Labour First Minister in Wales since YouGov began polling the issue [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026). This decline in public perception is strongly attributed to the controversies surrounding donations to his leadership campaign [[^]](https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/people-wales-think-one-politician-29459361). Rhun ap Iorwerth's approval remains notably higher than Gething's. In the same June 2024 YouGov poll, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth's personal approval rating stood at a significantly higher -8 [[^]](https://yougov.co.uk/en-gb/articles/54481-wales-political-snapshot-spring-2026). This considerable disparity in public sentiment highlights that ap Iorwerth maintains a substantially more favourable net approval rating compared to Vaughan Gething, especially in the period following the controversies over Gething's campaign donations. ## What Were the Key Outcomes of the 2024 UK General Election in Wales? Labour Vote Share | 49.3% (+9.7 percentage points) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Wales) | Conservative Vote Share | 17.2% (-18.8 percentage points) [[^]](https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/6/countries/6/constituency-areas) | Labour Seats Won | 27 seats (gain of 11) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Wales) | **The 2024 UK General Election in Wales demonstrated a significant swing to Labour** The 2024 UK General Election in Wales demonstrated a significant swing to Labour. Across the 32 newly defined constituencies, Labour's aggregate vote share rose by 9.7 percentage points, reaching **49.3%** in Wales. This enabled Labour to secure 27 of the 32 available seats, an increase of 11 seats compared to their notional performance in these constituencies in 2019 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Wales). In contrast, the Conservative Party experienced a substantial decline, with their aggregate vote share decreasing by 18.8 percentage points to **17.2%**. This resulted in the Conservatives winning only 1 seat across Wales, a loss of 13 seats from their notional 2019 total [[^]](https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/6/countries/6/constituency-areas). Plaid Cymru achieved modest gains, primarily at the Conservatives' expense. Plaid Cymru's aggregate vote share increased by 0.5 percentage points, reaching **14.8%**, and they secured 4 seats, an increase of 2 seats from their notional 2019 results [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Wales). This outcome indicates that a substantial aggregate swing from Labour to Plaid Cymru did not occur in the 2024 general election; instead, both Labour and Plaid Cymru made gains predominantly at the expense of the Conservative Party. The Liberal Democrats did not win any seats, receiving **5.6%** of the vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Wales). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 07, 2027 - **Closes:** May 07, 2027 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/) - [Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/) - [Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?](/markets/elections/primaries/texas-republican-attorney-general-nominee/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.