# Who will win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary election?

in 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: International elections

HTML: /markets/elections/international-elections/who-will-win-the-2026-latvia-parliamentary-election/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect New Unity to win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - For Stability.** showed strong momentum in 2025 municipal elections.
- National Alliance and United List are forming a strong pre-electoral bloc.
- Latvian voters prioritize economic issues over national security concerns.
- Incumbent parties faced significant disagreements on EU Green Deal legislation.
- Low public trust in national institutions challenges the ruling coalition.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 35c, the **market** prices 'For Stability!' higher than the **27.1%** **model**, suggesting overvaluation despite municipal gains.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Union of Greens and Farmers | 2.0% | 8.2% | The party aims to secure its position in the next parliamentary election. |
| New Unity | 35.0% | 27.1% | As an incumbent, the party seeks to retain its leading role in government. |
| The Progressives | 18.0% | 12.9% | The party campaigns to expand its parliamentary representation and influence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Union of Greens and Farmers | 2.0% | 8.2% |
| New Unity | 35.0% | 27.1% |
| The Progressives | 18.0% | 12.9% |
| National Alliance | 16.0% | 15.3% |
| Sovereign Power | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Latvia First | 26.0% | 21.1% |
| United List | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Social Democratic Party "Harmony" | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| For Stability! | 3.0% | 7.4% |

- Expiration: December 31, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market exhibits a stable, sideways trading pattern, indicating a lack of consensus or significant new information to drive a definitive trend. The price has been confined to a narrow 6-point range, fluctuating between 33.0% and 39.0%. The market opened at 35.0% and is currently priced at the same level, reinforcing the overall flat trajectory. Based on this price action, a support level has formed near 33.0%, while resistance is established at the peak of 39.0%. The brief spike to 39.0% seen in the sample data represents the market's high point, but it quickly reverted to the mean.

The provided context offers no specific news or events to explain the price fluctuations within this range. The spike to 39.0% on April 19th, for instance, occurred on zero volume, which suggests it may not have been a conviction-driven move but rather a temporary shift in a thinly traded market. The total volume of 1,338 contracts traded over 153 data points, along with periods of zero volume, indicates inconsistent liquidity and trader engagement. This low volume pattern suggests that the price movements, including the peaks and troughs, may not be backed by strong market conviction.

Overall, the chart suggests a market in a state of equilibrium and uncertainty. The consistent return to the 35.0% midpoint implies that, despite minor fluctuations, trader sentiment has remained largely unchanged. The narrow range and low volume reflect a market that is waiting for a significant catalyst to establish a clear directional trend. The current 35.0% price indicates a moderate probability assigned to the outcome, but the lack of sustained price movement or high-volume trading suggests this sentiment is not held with strong conviction.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to Yes if New Unity wins the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections, verified by the official electoral commission. Winning is defined as securing the most seats; in case of a tie, the party entering government, or then the one with the higher vote share, resolves to Yes, otherwise it resolves to No. The market opens December 23, 2025, and closes upon official declaration or by December 31, 2027, with potential extensions for annulled results or re-elections, subject to the December 31, 2027 hard deadline.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| United List | 0.1% | 2.8% | 2% | $94 | $94 |
| New Unity | 33% | 37% | 35% | $1,876 | $791 |
| Latvia First | 22% | 26% | 26% | $266 | $266 |
| National Alliance | 12% | 23% | 16% | $615 | $479 |
| The Progressives | 12% | 17% | 18% | $1,087 | $1,032 |
| Social Democratic Party "Harmony" | 0.1% | 1.6% | 3% | $2 | $2 |
| For Stability! | 0.1% | 1.6% | 3% | $1 | $1 |
| Sovereign Power | 0.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | $404 | $404 |
| Union of Greens and Farmers | 0.9% | 2.9% | 2% | $2,603 | $1,027 |

## What are Evika Siliņa's SKDS approval ratings compared to coalition support?

Coalition Support (March 2026) | 23.6% (SKDS, March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/latvia/opinion-polls/parliamentary-election/skds-2026-03-31) |
Coalition Support (November 2025) | 22.6% (SKDS, November 4, 2025) [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/latvia/opinion-polls/skds-2025-11-04/parliamentary-election) |
PM Siliņa's Personal SKDS Approval | Not available from provided sources [[^]](https://bnn-news.com/two-years-in-power-lddk-gives-silinas-government-only-a-three-271978) |

**Direct comparison of Prime Minister Siliņa's approval with coalition partners is not possible**

Direct comparison of Prime Minister Siliņa's approval with coalition partners is not possible. Specific quarterly personal net approval ratings for Prime Minister Evika Siliņa, as measured by the SKDS Baltija Barometer, are not provided in the available research. This absence of data means a direct trend analysis of her personal approval rating relative to her coalition partners' combined polling average cannot be performed with the given information.

Coalition partners show recent polling averages from SKDS surveys. Recent SKDS polls do offer insights into the support for her coalition partners. A survey by SKDS on March 31, 2026, indicated the Union of Greens and Farmers had **12.1%** support, and The Progressives had **11.5%**, resulting in a combined average of **23.6%** for these two parties [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/latvia/opinion-polls/parliamentary-election/skds-2026-03-31). Earlier, an SKDS poll from November 4, 2025, showed the Union of Greens and Farmers with **10.7%** support and The Progressives with **11.9%**, leading to a combined average of **22.6%** [[^]](https://politpro.eu/en/latvia/opinion-polls/skds-2025-11-04/parliamentary-election).

Government performance evaluations differ from personal approval ratings. While the Latvian Employers' Confederation (LDDK) has evaluated Siliņa's government, giving it a 'Three' out of five for its performance [[^]](https://bnn-news.com/two-years-in-power-lddk-gives-silinas-government-only-a-three-271978), these are evaluations of the government's overall work rather than her personal net approval rating from SKDS. Therefore, without specific quarterly data on Prime Minister Siliņa's personal net approval from the SKDS Baltija Barometer, it is not possible to project how her rating would trend compared to the combined polling average of her coalition partners.

## Which Party Gained Dominant Russian-Speaking Vote in Latgale 2025 Elections?

Winning Political Force (2025) | 'For Stability!' (Stabilitātei!) in Latgale electoral district [[^]](https://m.diena.lv/raksts/latvija/novados/_saskanas_-popularitatei-strauji-kritot-latgales-velesanu-apgabala-uzvar-_stabilitatei_-14287210) |
'Harmony' (Saskaņa) Performance (2025) | Rapid decline, failed to win in Latgale cities [[^]](https://m.diena.lv/raksts/latvija/novados/_saskanas_-popularitatei-strauji-kritot-latgales-velesanu-apgabala-uzvar-_stabilitatei_-14287210) |
Russian-Speaking Vote Consolidation | 'For Stability!' gaining dominant share from 'Harmony' [[^]](https://m.diena.lv/raksts/latvija/novados/_saskanas_-popularitatei-strauji-kritot-latgales-velesanu-apgabala-uzvar-_stabilitatei_-14287210) |

**For Stability**

For Stability! gained the dominant Russian-speaking vote share. Based on municipal-level election outcomes and analysis in Daugavpils and Rēzekne during the 2025 municipal elections, 'For Stability!' (Stabilitātei!) is evidenced to be securing the dominant share of the Russian-speaking vote. The party achieved victories in the Latgale electoral district, which encompasses both Daugavpils and Rēzekne [[^]](https://m.diena.lv/raksts/latvija/novados/_saskanas_-popularitatei-strauji-kritot-latgales-velesanu-apgabala-uzvar-_stabilitatei_-14287210). This rise occurred concurrently with a significant decline in the popularity of 'Harmony' (Saskaņa) [[^]](https://m.diena.lv/raksts/latvija/novados/_saskanas_-popularitatei-strauji-kritot-latgales-velesanu-apgabala-uzvar-_stabilitatei_-14287210).

'Harmony' experienced a substantial decline in public support. Analysis of the 2025 municipal elections indicates that 'Harmony' experienced a sharp drop in its public support, failing to achieve victories in Latgale cities previously led by its members, including Daugavpils and Rēzekne [[^]](http://m.diena.lv/raksts/latvija/politika/saskana-neuzvar-ne-krievija-ne-partijas-biedru-vaditajas-latgales-pilsetas-14287209). This decline suggests a substantial portion of the Russian-speaking electorate previously aligned with 'Harmony' has shifted its allegiance. The available evidence therefore points to 'For Stability!' as the political party consolidating a dominant share of the Russian-speaking vote, largely at the expense of 'Harmony' [[^]](https://m.diena.lv/raksts/latvija/novados/_saskanas_-popularitatei-strauji-kritot-latgales-velesanu-apgabala-uzvar-_stabilitatei_-14287210).

## What Are Latvian Voters' Top Concerns in Late 2025?

Top Voter Concern | Inflation/Cost of Living (42%) [[^]](https://rus.lsm.lv/statja/novosti/analitika/15.12.2025-ziteli-latvii-bolse-doveryayut-es-cem-svoim-politikam-eurobarometer.a626494/?ac=downloadatt&id=3078&rt=articles) |
Perception of Economic Situation | Bad (57%) [[^]](https://rus.lsm.lv/statja/novosti/analitika/15.12.2025-ziteli-latvii-bolse-doveryayut-es-cem-svoim-politikam-eurobarometer.a626494/?ac=downloadatt&id=3078&rt=articles) |
Trust in Latvian Government | 31% [[^]](https://rus.lsm.lv/statja/novosti/analitika/15.12.2025-ziteli-latvii-bolse-doveryayut-es-cem-svoim-politikam-eurobarometer.a626494/?ac=downloadatt&id=3078&rt=articles) |

**Latvian voters prioritize economic issues over national security concerns**

Latvian voters prioritize economic issues over national security concerns. According to Latvia-specific Eurobarometer surveys conducted in late 2025, "inflation/rising prices/cost of living" was identified as the single most important issue by **42%** of Latvians. This significantly outweighs concerns about the "international situation," which encompasses national security and Russia, cited by **23%** of respondents [[^]](https://rus.lsm.lv/statja/novosti/analitika/15.12.2025-ziteli-latvii-bolse-doveryayut-es-cem-svoim-politikam-eurobarometer.a626494/?ac=downloadatt&id=3078&rt=articles). This indicates that economic stability and personal financial well-being are more pressing issues for voters than broader geopolitical concerns, with **57%** of Latvians perceiving their country's economic situation as "bad" [[^]](https://rus.lsm.lv/statja/novosti/analitika/15.12.2025-ziteli-latvii-bolse-doveryayut-es-cem-svoim-politikam-eurobarometer.a626494/?ac=downloadatt&id=3078&rt=articles). This data originates from the Standard Eurobarometer 104, fielded in Autumn 2025 [[^]](https://cyprus.representation.ec.europa.eu/news/standard-eurobarometer-104-autumn-2025-2025-12-19_en?prefLang=el).

No specific party is deemed most competent by Latvian voters. The 2025 Eurobarometer data for Latvia does not identify any particular party as most competent on these critical issues. Instead, the findings highlight a general low level of trust in national political institutions [[^]](https://rus.lsm.lv/statja/novosti/analitika/15.12.2025-ziteli-latvii-bolse-doveryayut-es-cem-svoim-politikam-eurobarometer.a626494/?ac=downloadatt&id=3078&rt=articles). The survey revealed that only **31%** of Latvians trust their government, and **28%** trust the Saeima (parliament) [[^]](https://rus.lsm.lv/statja/novosti/analitika/15.12.2025-ziteli-latvii-bolse-doveryayut-es-cem-svoim-politikam-eurobarometer.a626494/?ac=downloadatt&id=3078&rt=articles). This stands in stark contrast to the **64%** of Latvians who expressed trust in the European Union [[^]](https://rus.lsm.lv/statja/novosti/analitika/15.12.2025-ziteli-latvii-bolse-doveryayut-es-cem-svoim-politikam-eurobarometer.a626494/?ac=downloadatt&id=3078&rt=articles).

## What Is the Likelihood of Opposition Pre-Electoral Alliances Before 2026?

National Alliance-United List Partnership | Actively pursued "future government partnership" as of February 2025 [[^]](http://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/20.02.2025-national-alliance-woos-united-list-for-future-government-partnership.a588547/) |
Latvia First Pre-Electoral Alliance | No specific public statements or joint legislative actions with United List or National Alliance identified before 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/latvian-parliamentary-election-winner/will-latvija-pirmaj-viet-lpv-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-latvian-parliamentary-election) |
Probability of NA-UL Alliance | High probability of formal pre-electoral alliance before 2026 [[^]](http://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/20.02.2025-national-alliance-woos-united-list-for-future-government-partnership.a588547/) |

**A strong pre-electoral alliance is probable between two opposition parties**

A strong pre-electoral alliance is probable between two opposition parties. Based on public statements and actions observed before 2026, there is a high likelihood of a formal pre-electoral alliance forming between the National Alliance and the United List. For instance, as of February 20, 2025, the National Alliance was actively "wooing United List for future government partnership" [[^]](http://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/20.02.2025-national-alliance-woos-united-list-for-future-government-partnership.a588547/). This overture demonstrates significant movement towards formal cooperation between these two parties well in advance of the 2026 parliamentary election.

No evidence supports Latvia First's inclusion in a broader alliance. Despite potential collaboration between the National Alliance and the United List, available sources lack specific public statements from leaders or details of joint legislative actions indicating a formal pre-electoral alliance involving Latvia First (Latvija Pirmajā Vietā, LPV) with either of the other two parties before 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/latvian-parliamentary-election-winner/will-latvija-pirmaj-viet-lpv-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-latvian-parliamentary-election). The research, which specifically covers events before 2026, does not contain information regarding a broader alliance that would encompass Latvia First within this defined timeframe.

## Which Legislative Votes Caused Most Disagreement in Latvia?

ETS Law Passage Attempts | Two failed attempts [[^]](https://bnn-news.com/after-two-failed-attempts-saeima-passes-pollution-law-to-avoid-at-least-300-million-euros-fine-272881) |
ETS Bills Quorum Issues | Repeatedly failed to ensure quorum [[^]](https://bnn-news.com/latvia-faces-hundreds-of-millions-in-fines-parliament-fails-to-ensure-quorum-272620) |
Potential ETS Fines | At least 300 million euros [[^]](https://bnn-news.com/after-two-failed-attempts-saeima-passes-pollution-law-to-avoid-at-least-300-million-euros-fine-272881) |

**Latvia's ruling coalition faced significant disagreement on EU Green Deal legislation**

Latvia's ruling coalition faced significant disagreement on EU Green Deal legislation. The Saeima (Latvian parliament) encountered substantial internal disagreement concerning environmental bills essential for implementing the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the broader EU Green Deal. These crucial bills faced repeated postponements, and the Latvian parliament struggled to ensure a quorum for votes, which risked sanctions from the European Commission [[^]](https://bnn-news.com/saeima-once-again-postpones-key-environmental-bills-ec-sanctions-looming-272147). This legislative deadlock posed a threat of significant fines, potentially reaching at least 300 million euros, for Latvia [[^]](https://bnn-news.com/latvia-faces-hundreds-of-millions-in-fines-parliament-fails-to-ensure-quorum-272620). A key "pollution law," vital for ETS implementation and to prevent these financial penalties, ultimately passed only after two previous attempts failed, clearly demonstrating considerable internal parliamentary challenges and a lack of immediate consensus among the governing parties [[^]](https://bnn-news.com/after-two-failed-attempts-saeima-passes-pollution-law-to-avoid-at-least-300-million-euros-fine-272881).

Defense spending legislation experienced much less internal disagreement within the coalition. In contrast to the environmental legislation, bills related to increased defense spending did not provoke comparable public disagreement or legislative difficulties among the ruling coalition members. The Saeima approved a measure to establish Latvia's defense spending at a minimum of **5%** of GDP starting from 2027 [[^]](https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/saeima/26.03.2026-saeima-sets-latvias-defence-spending-at-minimum-5-of-gdp-from-2027.a640514/). There is no available information indicating any failed attempts, postponements, or quorum issues for this specific defense spending vote, which suggests significantly less internal resistance compared to the challenges encountered with the environmental legislation.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** December 31, 2027
- **Closes:** December 31, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.