# Peru presidential election matchup

Apr 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: International elections
Peru

HTML: /markets/elections/international-elections/peru-presidential-election-matchup/

## Short Answer

**The model sees potential mispricing: Keiko Fujimori vs.** Roberto Sánchez Palomino at **83.4%** **model** vs **95.0%** **market**, suggesting the **market** may be underestimating the impact of Keiko Fujimori's stagnant voting intention and persistent legal challenges.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Roberto Sánchez gained significant traction, surpassing Rafael López Aliaga by April 2026.** - Keiko Fujimori's voting intention remains stagnant amid ongoing legal imputation.
- Rafael López Aliaga faces negative momentum and multiple active legal investigations.
- Carlos Álvarez showed positive momentum, rising to third place in voting intention.
- Peru's highly fragmented political landscape features 36 registered presidential tickets.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** and **market** align at **1%** (100x payout), as Roberto Sánchez's rise limits other candidates' runoff chances.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 4.0% | 3.9% | Both candidates face significant negative momentum and ongoing legal challenges. |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95.0% | 83.4% | Roberto Sánchez gained significant traction, positioning him for a runoff against Keiko Fujimori. |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Jorge Nieto | 1.0% | 1.0% | Jorge Nieto lacks significant momentum to secure a runoff spot. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95.0% | 83.4% |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Jorge Nieto | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Ricardo Belmont | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Carlos Álvarez | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Ricardo Belmont vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Rafael López Aliaga vs. Jorge Nieto | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino vs. Jorge Nieto | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Ricardo Belmont vs. Jorge Nieto | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Ricardo Belmont vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Ricardo Belmont vs. Carlos Álvarez | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Carlos Álvarez vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Carlos Álvarez vs. Jorge Nieto | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Rafael López Aliaga vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Carlos Álvarez vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 1.0% | 1.0% |

- Expiration: April 12, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the data provided for the "Peru presidential election matchup" market, the price action has been entirely static. The market opened with a 1.0% probability for a "YES" outcome and has not deviated from this price throughout its history, as indicated by the identical starting price, current price, and price range. This represents a perfectly sideways or flat trend, with no significant price spikes, drops, or any volatility whatsoever. The market has established a clear and unwavering floor at the 1.0% level, which has served as both its support and its entire trading range.

The complete absence of price movement means there are no market-moving events to analyze within the provided context. The trading volume of 2,187 contracts, while not zero, has been insufficient to influence the price. This suggests that trading activity has either been consistently balanced at this low probability or has predominantly consisted of participants selling "YES" contracts (or buying "NO"), which reinforces the price at its floor. The lack of any upward price pressure indicates a very low conviction among traders that the "YES" outcome will occur.

Overall, the chart reflects a strong and stable market consensus. The sentiment is extremely bearish regarding the probability of this specific election matchup resolving as "YES". The persistent 1.0% price level indicates that traders collectively view this outcome as highly improbable. The market has priced in this low likelihood from the start and has found no reason to adjust that assessment over time, reflecting a deeply entrenched and unchanging pessimistic outlook.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Keiko Fujimori vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino

#### 📈 April 17, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 70.0% to 85.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga

#### 📉 April 16, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 45.0% to 29.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if both Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance in the 2026 Peru presidential election, with the outcome verified by the National Jury of Elections (JNE). It resolves to "No" if any single component of this combination market fails to occur or becomes impossible. The market, which opened on April 9, 2026, will close and expire early if all components are satisfied or if a "No" outcome becomes certain, otherwise, it closes by April 12, 2027, at 10:00 AM EDT, with projected payout 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Carlos Álvarez vs. Jorge Nieto | 0% | 1% | 1% | $3,381 | $1,507 |
| Carlos Álvarez vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1,857 | $879 |
| Carlos Álvarez vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 0% | 1% | 1% | $3,454 | $1,730 |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Carlos Álvarez | 0% | 1% | 1% | $46,304 | $18,974 |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Jorge Nieto | 0% | 1% | 1% | $77,968.38 | $23,473.48 |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 4% | 5% | 4% | $96,165.93 | $26,270.66 |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Ricardo Belmont | 0% | 1% | 1% | $67,661 | $23,955 |
| Keiko Fujimori vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95% | 96% | 95% | $78,204.29 | $34,824.14 |
| Rafael López Aliaga vs. Jorge Nieto | 0% | 1% | 1% | $21,256 | $15,983 |
| Rafael López Aliaga vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 0% | 1% | 1% | $3,068 | $1,203 |
| Ricardo Belmont vs. Carlos Álvarez | 0% | 1% | 1% | $7,710 | $3,895 |
| Ricardo Belmont vs. Jorge Nieto | 0% | 1% | 1% | $17,006 | $3,537 |
| Ricardo Belmont vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 0% | 1% | 1% | $10,820 | $4,459 |
| Ricardo Belmont vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 0% | 1% | 1% | $35,990 | $12,612 |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino vs. Jorge Nieto | 0% | 1% | 1% | $17,263 | $4,453 |

## How Strong is Peruvian Political Party Machinery for 2026 Elections?

Fuerza Popular False Signatures | Over 2,000 (Reniec) [[^]](http://larepublica.pe/politica/2025/04/29/fuerza-popular-reniec-reporta-mas-de-2000-firmas-falsas-en-partido-de-keiko-fujimori-hnews-1738666) |
Juntos por el Perú Affiliate Padrón | Approved for 2026 primary elections (JNE) [[^]](https://busquedas.elperuano.pe/dispositivo/NL/2502626-1) |
Renovación Popular Presidential Candidate | Rafael López Aliaga [[^]](https://peru21.pe/politica/rafael-lopez-aliaga-es-candidato-presidencial-por-renovacion-popular/) |

**A direct comparison of party strength is constrained by available data**

A direct comparison of party strength is constrained by available data. Specific affiliate counts and comprehensive figures for regional or municipal candidates filed with the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) by the Q4 2025 deadline were not detailed in the provided sources for any of the parties. Therefore, a definitive assessment of the relative strength of party machinery, as measured by these specific criteria, cannot be precisely determined from the available information.

Keiko Fujimori's Fuerza Popular faced scrutiny regarding affiliate signatures. The National Registry of Identification and Civil Status (Reniec) reported over 2,000 false signatures submitted by the party to the JNE for affiliation [[^]](http://larepublica.pe/politica/2025/04/29/fuerza-popular-reniec-reporta-mas-de-2000-firmas-falsas-en-partido-de-keiko-fujimori-hnews-1738666). Fuerza Popular was also among 32 parties identified by Reniec with observed signature issues [[^]](https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2026-estos-son-los-32-partidos-con-firmas-observadas-por-reniec-noticia-1631509). Despite these integrity concerns, the Special Electoral Jury (JEE) declared the presidential formula for Fuerza Popular inscribed after it successfully overcame the objection period [[^]](https://www.exitosanoticias.pe/politica/jee-declara-inscrita-formula-presidencial-fuerza-popular-superar-periodo-tachas-n165568). However, the sources did not provide specific numbers for their successfully registered affiliates or regional/municipal candidates for the 2026 elections.

Other candidates' parties also lacked specific data on affiliates and candidates. Rafael López Aliaga is identified as the presidential candidate for Renovación Popular [[^]](https://peru21.pe/politica/rafael-lopez-aliaga-es-candidato-presidencial-por-renovacion-popular/), with information noting internal elections for 2025 that would involve candidate selection [[^]](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_internas_de_Renovaci%C3%B3n_Popular_de_2025). However, specific data on successfully registered party affiliates or filed regional/municipal candidates for Renovación Popular were not available. Similarly, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino's Juntos por el Perú had its padrón of affiliated electors approved by the JNE for the primary elections of the 2026 Regional and Municipal Elections [[^]](https://busquedas.elperuano.pe/dispositivo/NL/2502626-1), a specific numerical count of successfully registered affiliates or regional/municipal candidates filed was not provided for this party either.

## Which Peruvian Political Candidates Gained Momentum in Early 2026?

Carlos Álvarez's position | Rose to third place in voting intention by late March 2026 [[^]](https://pwa.larepublica.pe/politica/2026/03/29/encuestas-presidenciales-2026-keiko-fujimori-y-lopez-aliaga-se-estancan-mientras-que-carlos-alvarez-sube-al-tercer-lugar-hnews-2577607) |
Roberto Sánchez's standing | Surpassed Rafael López Aliaga, positioned for runoff by early April 2026 [[^]](https://elmacheteperu.com/2026/04/15/roberto-sanchez-desplaza-a-lopez-aliaga-y-se-perfila-a-segunda-vuelta-segun-onpe-al-90/) |
Established candidates' trend | Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga experienced stagnation [[^]](https://pwa.larepublica.pe/politica/2026/03/29/encuestas-presidenciales-2026-keiko-fujimori-y-lopez-aliaga-se-estancan-mientras-que-carlos-alvarez-sube-al-tercer-lugar-hnews-2577607) |

**Carlos Álvarez demonstrated significant positive momentum in voter intention by Q1 2026**

Carlos Álvarez demonstrated significant positive momentum in voter intention by Q1 2026. Based on a comparative analysis of public opinion from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026, Roberto Sánchez and Carlos Álvarez exhibited the most significant positive momentum in capturing voter intention. By late March 2026, La República reported a notable rise for Carlos Álvarez to third place in voting intention, signaling a clear upward trend in his public appeal. During this period, established contenders such as Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga experienced a stagnation in their support [[^]](https://pwa.larepublica.pe/politica/2026/03/29/encuestas-presidenciales-2026-keiko-fujimori-y-lopez-aliaga-se-estancan-mientras-que-carlos-alvarez-sube-al-tercer-lugar-hnews-2577607).

Roberto Sánchez showed substantial momentum, challenging established political figures. Further data from early April 2026 highlighted Roberto Sánchez as demonstrating significant momentum, displacing Rafael López Aliaga and strongly positioning him to advance to a second-round runoff [[^]](https://elmacheteperu.com/2026/04/15/roberto-sanchez-desplaza-a-lopez-aliaga-y-se-perfila-a-segunda-vuelta-segun-onpe-al-90/). This considerable gain against a prominent candidate suggests Sánchez was effectively drawing a broad base of support, likely including voters seeking alternatives to traditional political figures and expressing anti-establishment sentiment [[^]](https://elmacheteperu.com/2026/04/15/roberto-sanchez-desplaza-a-lopez-aliaga-y-se-perfila-a-segunda-vuelta-segun-onpe-al-90/).

Shifts in voting intention strongly indicate broader public recognition. While specific metrics such as net sentiment or share of voice across all media outlets are not explicitly detailed, the reported shifts in voting intention by major outlets like La República [[^]](https://pwa.larepublica.pe/politica/2026/03/29/encuestas-presidenciales-2026-keiko-fujimori-y-lopez-aliaga-se-estancan-mientras-que-carlos-alvarez-sube-al-tercer-lugar-hnews-2577607), Encuestas Perú [[^]](https://encuestas.com.pe/encuesta-presidencial-sensor-01-marzo-2026/), El Machete Perú [[^]](https://elmacheteperu.com/2026/04/15/roberto-sanchez-desplaza-a-lopez-aliaga-y-se-perfila-a-segunda-vuelta-segun-onpe-al-90/), and Futbolperuano.com [[^]](https://www.futbolperuano.com/peru/mas-del-futbol-peruano/roberto-sanchez-toma-ventaja-sobre-rafael-lopez-aliaga-y-se-acerca-a-la-segunda-vuelta-579790) serve as strong indicators of growing public recognition and positive momentum for these emerging candidates. The concurrent stagnation of established candidates underscores a dynamic period where a segment of the electorate was actively seeking and consolidating support behind new political options.

## What Are the Latest Legal Developments for Fujimori and Aliaga?

Equipo Especial Lava Jato Deactivation | January 6, 2026 [[^]](http://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/01/06/tomas-aladino-galvez-desactiva-el-equipo-especial-lava-jato-que-pasara-con-rafael-vela-y-jose-domingo-perez/) |
Keiko Fujimori Case Status | Case archived, imputation for false declarations maintained (January 14, 2026 [[^]](https://convoca.pe/agenda-propia/suspenden-al-fiscal-del-caso-cocteles-y-horas-despues-archivan-el-caso-contra-keiko)) |
Rafael López Aliaga Investigations | Two money laundering probes ongoing (Panama Papers, MML debt [[^]](https://pwa.larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/06/el-caso-papeles-de-panama-que-persigue-a-rafael-lopez-aliaga-por-lavado-de-activos-panama-papers-renovacion-popular-hnews-154220)) |

**Recent developments significantly altered the investigation status of Keiko Fujimori**

Recent developments significantly altered the investigation status of Keiko Fujimori. The Equipo Especial Lava Jato, which previously handled the 'Cócteles' case, was deactivated on January 6, 2026 [[^]](http://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/01/06/tomas-aladino-galvez-desactiva-el-equipo-especial-lava-jato-que-pasara-con-rafael-vela-y-jose-domingo-perez/). Following this, on January 14, 2026, the prosecutor assigned to the 'Cócteles' case was suspended, and a report indicated the case against Fujimori had been archived [[^]](https://convoca.pe/agenda-propia/suspenden-al-fiscal-del-caso-cocteles-y-horas-despues-archivan-el-caso-contra-keiko). However, on the same day, a judge maintained the imputation against her for false declarations of contributions to the ONPE [[^]](https://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/01/14/caso-cocteles-juez-mantiene-imputacion-contra-keiko-fujimori-por-falsas-declaraciones-de-aportes-ante-la-onpe/). Earlier, a 35-year imprisonment request had been sought in the 'Cócteles' case [[^]](https://www.gob.pe/es/n/1202411), and Keiko Fujimori, along with Fuerza Popular and her presidential ticket, remains under investigation for money laundering [[^]](http://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/01/11/fuerza-popular-keiko-fujimori-y-su-plancha-presidencial-investigados-por-lavado-de-activos-hnews-632760).

Rafael López Aliaga faces two ongoing money laundering investigations. Companies linked to López Aliaga are currently under investigation in connection with the 'Panama Papers' [[^]](https://pwa.larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/06/el-caso-papeles-de-panama-que-persigue-a-rafael-lopez-aliaga-por-lavado-de-activos-panama-papers-renovacion-popular-hnews-154220), and the Judicial Power admitted an appeal seeking to revoke the extension of this investigation [[^]](https://rpp.pe/lima/judiciales/pj-admitio-a-tramite-apelacion-de-rafael-lopez-aliaga-para-que-se-revoque-ampliacion-de-investigacion-sobre-caso-panama-papers-noticia-1673471). Additionally, on March 21, 2026, the anti-corruption prosecutor's office initiated an investigation into López Aliaga regarding the S/ 4 billion debt of the Metropolitan Municipality of Lima [[^]](https://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/03/21/fiscalia-anticorrupcion-dispone-investigar-a-rafael-lopez-aliaga-por-endeudamiento-de-s-4-mil-millones-en-mml/). For either of López Aliaga's investigations, no specific prosecutorial deadlines or judicial rulings before the official candidate registration period are available in the provided information.

## Will Peru's Left-Wing Vote Be Fragmented in the Elections?

JPP Alliance | "Alianza ASI – Juntos por el Perú" [[^]](https://jp.org.pe/2026/02/02/sintesis-alianza-asi-juntos-por-el-peru/) |
JPP Strategy Focus | Alliances for eventual second electoral round [[^]](https://www.apnoticias.pe/peru/exitosa-noticias/juntos-por-el-peru-buscara-alianza-con-partidos-de-izquierda-para-eventual-segunda-vuelta-con-fujimori-1498578/amp) |
Total Presidential Tickets | 36 [[^]](https://andina.pe/agencia/noticia-peru-36-presidential-tickets-registered-for-april-12-general-elections-1061088.aspx) |

**Juntos por el Perú (JPP) prioritizes second-round alliances over first-round unity**

Juntos por el Perú (JPP) prioritizes second-round alliances over first-round unity. Roberto Sánchez Palomino's JPP has engaged in coalition-building, exemplified by the "Alianza ASI – Juntos por el Perú" [[^]](https://jp.org.pe/2026/02/02/sintesis-alianza-asi-juntos-por-el-peru/). However, a unified left-wing ticket for the first round of elections appears improbable. Sánchez has explicitly stated that his dialogues with five political parties [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/16/roberto-sanchez-anuncia-que-tuvo-dialogo-con-5-partidos-politicos-ante-una-eventual-segunda-vuelta-hnews-1188528) are geared towards forming alliances for an "eventual second round" [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/04/16/roberto-sanchez-anuncia-que-tuvo-dialogo-con-5-partidos-politicos-ante-una-eventual-segunda-vuelta-hnews-1188528), particularly to counter a candidate such as Fujimori [[^]](https://www.apnoticias.pe/peru/exitosa-noticias/juntos-por-el-peru-buscara-alianza-con-partidos-de-izquierda-para-eventual-segunda-vuelta-con-fujimori-1498578/amp). This strategic emphasis indicates that JPP's main objective is not to consolidate a broad left-wing movement for the initial electoral phase.

The left-wing vote in Peru is highly probable to be split. Perú Libre (PL) has independently registered Vladimir Cerrón as its presidential candidate, an announcement made while he was in hiding [[^]](https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2026-profugo-vladimir-cerron-presento-su-candidatura-presidencial-desde-la-clandestinidad-noticia-1672546). The relationship between JPP and PL is notably strained, as illustrated by Cerrón's public criticism of Sánchez, whom he described as "the system's new trial balloon" [[^]](https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/vladimir-cerron-roberto-sanchez-es-el-nuevo-globo-de-ensayo-del-sistema-noticia-1682016). This internal discord, combined with a highly fragmented electoral landscape featuring 36 registered presidential tickets for the General Elections [[^]](https://andina.pe/agencia/noticia-peru-36-presidential-tickets-registered-for-april-12-general-elections-1061088.aspx), strongly suggests a division of the left-wing vote in the first round.

## What Are the Key Deadlines for Peru's 2026 General Elections?

Internal Party Primary Elections Deadline | November 24, 2024 [[^]](https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal_documentos/files/6870074e-526d-4cea-a9de-110a464de7a3.pdf) |
Presidential Ticket Registration Deadline | January 10, 2025 [[^]](https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal_documentos/files/6870074e-526d-4cea-a9de-110a464de7a3.pdf) |
Parties Awaiting Definitive Status | Avanza País and Perú Primero (awaiting challenge review) [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/01/04/elecciones-2026-avanza-pais-y-peru-primero-esperan-revision-de-tachas-para-sumarse-a-32-planchas-inscritas-hnews-286104) |

**Peru's electoral calendar established key deadlines for candidate selection and registration**

Peru's electoral calendar established key deadlines for candidate selection and registration. The official electoral calendar, known as the Cronograma Electoral, was established by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) for the 2026 General Elections, outlining crucial dates and procedural requirements [[^]](https://www.gob.pe/institucion/jne/informes-publicaciones/7856562-cronograma-electoral-de-las-elecciones-generales-2026). The period for political parties to conduct their internal primary elections for candidate selection concluded between November 10 and November 24, 2024 [[^]](https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal_documentos/files/6870074e-526d-4cea-a9de-110a464de7a3.pdf). Subsequently, the definitive deadline for the formal registration of presidential tickets (fórmulas presidenciales) was set for January 10, 2025 [[^]](https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal_documentos/files/6870074e-526d-4cea-a9de-110a464de7a3.pdf).

Several parties face uncertainty regarding their formal election eligibility. As of early January 2026, while 32 presidential slates have reportedly been inscribed, several parties are still awaiting the resolution of challenges (tachas) filed against their submitted candidate slates [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/01/04/elecciones-2026-avanza-pais-y-peru-primero-esperan-revision-de-tachas-para-sumarse-a-32-planchas-inscritas-hnews-286104). This ongoing review process will determine their full registration and eligibility to participate in the elections. For example, parties such as Avanza País and Perú Primero are currently undergoing these evaluations [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/01/04/elecciones-2026-avanza-pais-y-peru-primero-esperan-revision-de-tachas-para-sumarse-a-32-planchas-inscritas-hnews-286104). Consequently, despite the official registration deadlines having passed, some parties have not yet completely cleared all procedural requirements [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/01/04/elecciones-2026-avanza-pais-y-peru-primero-esperan-revision-de-tachas-para-sumarse-a-32-planchas-inscritas-hnews-286104).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 19, 2027
- **Closes:** April 12, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.