# Peru presidential election: first round second place? On Mar 25, 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: International elections Peru HTML: /markets/elections/international-elections/peru-presidential-election-first-round-second-place/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Roberto Sánchez Palomino to place second in the first round of the Peru presidential election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Keiko Fujimori's 54% national rejection rate strongly limits her potential.** - Rafael López Aliaga leads in the South with **24.3%** support (Datum poll). - Rafael López Chau shows strong South performance, leading with **26%** (Ipsos poll). - Conflicting South polling creates uncertainty for Rafael López Aliaga's support. - National polling data for Rafael López Chau is currently unavailable. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **2.9%** **probability** is 0.8pp above 2.1c **market** (47.6x payout), amidst conflicting regional polls for contenders. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rafael López Aliaga | 2.1% | 2.9% | López Aliaga maintains a dedicated conservative base, making him a consistent, if not top, contender. | | Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95.8% | 93.7% | Roberto Sánchez Palomino is a strong contender, currently well-positioned to secure the second place. | | Jorge Nieto | 1.0% | 1.2% | Jorge Nieto has some political experience but lacks widespread recent electoral support. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Rafael López Aliaga | 2.1% | 2.9% | | Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95.8% | 93.7% | | Jorge Nieto | 1.0% | 1.2% | | Ricardo Belmont | 1.0% | 1.2% | | Keiko Fujimori | 0.1% | 0.1% | | Alfonso López Chau | 0.2% | 0.4% | | Carlos Álvarez | 0.2% | 0.2% | | Wolfgang Grozo | 0.1% | 0.1% | | George Forsyth | 0.1% | 0.1% | - Expiration: March 25, 2027 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market shows a strong overall downward trend, starting at a 29.0% probability and collapsing to its current price of 2.1%. The most significant price action occurred over a three-day period in mid-April. On April 15th, the price spiked from 29.0% to 47.0%, followed by a dramatic reversal with two consecutive drops on April 16th (to 27.0%) and April 17th (to 14.0%). In the absence of specific news or external context, the direct cause for this extreme volatility cannot be determined from the chart data alone. This rapid rise and fall suggests a brief period of high uncertainty or a specific event that was quickly and decisively priced out by traders. The trading volume provides insight into market conviction. The collapse in price was accompanied by significant trading activity, as shown by the high volume of 2,338.0 contracts on April 21st, after the major drop. This indicates strong conviction behind the downward move. More recently, volume has fallen to zero, suggesting the market has reached a consensus at the current low probability, with little interest in challenging this level. The price appears to have found a support floor around the 2.1% level after breaking through previous levels. The peak near 53.0% acted as a major resistance point that was sharply rejected. Overall, the chart reflects a market sentiment that has shifted from moderate uncertainty to a firm consensus that this outcome is highly improbable. The mid-April volatility represents a key period of price discovery where an initial surge of optimism was overwhelmingly reversed. The subsequent stabilization at a very low price point, coupled with diminishing volume, indicates that traders currently see little chance of this contract resolving to YES. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Roberto Sánchez Palomino #### 📉 April 22, 2026: 11.0pp drop Price decreased from 91.0% to 80.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 15, 2026: 24.0pp drop Price decreased from 74.0% to 50.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Rafael López Aliaga #### 📉 April 17, 2026: 13.0pp drop Price decreased from 27.0% to 14.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 16, 2026: 26.0pp drop Price decreased from 53.0% to 27.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves to "Yes" if Roberto Sánchez Palomino secures 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, as certified by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE). A "No" resolution occurs if he does not place second, if a write-in candidate finishes second, or if the election is canceled or postponed beyond the expiration date. The market opened on March 25, 2026, and closes either upon outcome certification or by March 25, 2027; exact ties for second place result in proportional resolution. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alfonso López Chau | 0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | $9,899.92 | $4,952.75 | | Carlos Álvarez | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $7,512.23 | $3,441.46 | | George Forsyth | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $669 | $669 | | Jorge Nieto | 0% | 2% | 1% | $18,670.14 | $10,107.77 | | Keiko Fujimori | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $12,286.6 | $5,386.46 | | Rafael López Aliaga | 5.3% | 6.8% | 2.1% | $189,865.35 | $65,809.08 | | Ricardo Belmont | 0% | 1% | 1% | $12,647.03 | $6,558.54 | | Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95% | 95.1% | 95.8% | $146,352.55 | $40,462.03 | | Wolfgang Grozo | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,331.9 | $1,131.9 | ## How Do Polls Show Rafael López Aliaga's Performance Differently? López Aliaga South Lead | 24.3% (Datum's April 2026 poll) [[^]](https://www.datum.com.pe/new_web_files/files/opinion/567-1025%20-%20Encuesta+Simulacro%20DATUM%20EC%20Abril%2026%20(01%20al%2004%20abril)%20-%20Informe%20FINAL_260405090939.pdf) | López Aliaga South Trailing | 10% (Ipsos' April 2026 poll) [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/tercer-simulacro-nacional-y-encuesta-de-intencion-de-voto-abril-2026-encuesta-peru-21-ipsos) | Fujimori North Lead | 19% (Ipsos) to 19.3% (Datum) [[^]](http://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/04/05/encuestas-presidenciales-de-ipsos-datum-y-cpi-asi-evoluciono-el-voto-en-peru-por-regiones-zonas-y-genero/) | **Polling firms present conflicting views on candidate Rafael López Aliaga's regional support** Polling firms present conflicting views on candidate Rafael López Aliaga's regional support. According to a Datum Internacional poll conducted from April 1 to 4, 2026, Rafael López Aliaga leads the intention to vote in the South of Peru, including Arequipa and Cusco, with **24.3%**. In this same region, he is followed by Rafael López Chau at **19.9%** and Antauro Humala at **15.6%**, while Keiko Fujimori registered **6.5%** [[^]](https://www.datum.com.pe/new_web_files/files/opinion/567-**1025%**20-%20Encuesta+Simulacro%20DATUM%20EC%20Abril%**2026%**20(**01%**20al%**2004%**20abril)%20-%20Informe%20FINAL_260405090939.pdf). This Datum finding suggests a notable expansion of López Aliaga's voter base into an area not typically considered his primary stronghold. However, the "Tercer Simulacro Nacional y Encuesta de Intención de Voto" by Ipsos Perú for April 2026 presents a different scenario for the Southern region, showing Rafael López Chau leading with **26%** of the vote intention. In Ipsos's results for the South, Keiko Fujimori follows with **11%**, Rafael López Aliaga is at **10%**, and Antauro Humala at **9%** [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/tercer-simulacro-nacional-y-encuesta-de-intencion-de-voto-abril-2026-encuesta-peru-21-ipsos). These divergent results highlight notable differences in polling outcomes between the two firms regarding López Aliaga's regional performance. Keiko Fujimori demonstrates strong support in her traditional Northern stronghold. In the Northern region, an area traditionally considered a Fujimorista stronghold, Keiko Fujimori leads with **19%** according to Ipsos, and **19.3%** according to Datum (as reported by Infobae) [[^]](http://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/04/05/encuestas-presidenciales-de-ipsos-datum-y-cpi-asi-evoluciono-el-voto-en-peru-por-regiones-zonas-y-genero/). Rafael López Aliaga registers **12%** in the North according to Ipsos, and **13.1%** according to Datum (as reported by Infobae) [[^]](http://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/04/05/encuestas-presidenciales-de-ipsos-datum-y-cpi-asi-evoluciono-el-voto-en-peru-por-regiones-zonas-y-genero/). Beyond the North, Rafael López Chau appears as a significant contender, leading the Southern region in Ipsos's findings with **26%** [[^]](https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/tercer-simulacro-nacional-y-encuesta-de-intencion-de-voto-abril-2026-encuesta-peru-21-ipsos). ## Are Second-Choice Preferences for Peruvian Candidates Available from CPI Polls? Second-choice preferences for lower-tier candidates | Not detailed in CPI poll summaries [[^]](https://encuestas.com.pe/encuesta-presidencial-cpi-05-abril-2026/) | Primary focus of CPI polls (early 2026) | First-round voting intentions and overall percentages for 2026 Peruvian general election [[^]](https://encuestas.com.pe/encuesta-presidencial-cpi-05-abril-2026/) | Granular data on specific candidate bases | Not included in available reports [[^]](https://encuestas.com.pe/encuesta-presidencial-cpi-05-abril-2026/) | **Specific second-choice voter preferences from CPI are unavailable** Specific second-choice voter preferences from CPI are unavailable. The web research summarizing CPI (Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinión Pública) polls from early 2026 does not provide specific details on second-choice preferences or voter preference crosstabs. This granular data is not available for supporters of lower-tier candidates such as George Forsyth, Carlos Álvarez, or Ricardo Belmont. Available sources focus on first-round voting intentions. The provided sources primarily concentrate on reporting first-round voting intentions for the 2026 Peruvian general election, highlighting leading candidates and overall percentages [[^]](https://encuestas.com.pe/encuesta-presidencial-cpi-05-abril-2026/). While these reports discuss general voter sentiment, they lack the granular data needed to ascertain the second-choice preferences of specific candidate bases, especially for those with lower initial support. Therefore, specific data regarding the second-choice preferences of voters currently supporting George Forsyth, Carlos Álvarez, and Ricardo Belmont from CPI's crosstabs is not available based on the information provided. ## What are Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga's Rejection Rates? Keiko Fujimori Rejection Rate | 54% (IEP February 2026 national survey [[^]](https://www.cronicaviva.com.pe/encuesta-iep-54-rechaza-y-nunca-votaria-por-keiko-fujimori-le-sigue-cesar-acuna-con-7-3/)) | Rafael López Aliaga Rejection Rate | Not explicitly provided in recent IEP surveys [[^]](https://estudiosdeopinion.iep.org.pe/informe/marzo-ii-2026/) | Primary Source for Fujimori Data | IEP February 2026 opinion report [[^]](https://estudiosdeopinion.iep.org.pe/informe/febrero-2026/) | **Keiko Fujimori Higuchi recorded a 54% rejection rate in February 2026** Keiko Fujimori Higuchi recorded a **54%** rejection rate in February 2026. According to the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (IEP) national survey from February 2026, her 'anti-voto,' or rejection rate, was **54%** [[^]](https://www.cronicaviva.com.pe/encuesta-iep-54-rechaza-y-nunca-votaria-por-keiko-fujimori-le-sigue-cesar-acuna-con-7-3/). This indicates that **54%** of respondents stated they would not vote for her [[^]](https://www.cronicaviva.com.pe/encuesta-iep-54-rechaza-y-nunca-votaria-por-keiko-fujimori-le-sigue-cesar-acuna-con-7-3/). This figure was widely cited by various media outlets referencing the IEP survey results, with the IEP's own February 2026 opinion report serving as the primary source [[^]](https://www.cronicaviva.com.pe/encuesta-iep-54-rechaza-y-nunca-votaria-por-keiko-fujimori-le-sigue-cesar-acuna-con-7-3/). Rafael López Aliaga's precise rejection rate is not available from these surveys. The provided research does not include a specific 'rejection rate' or 'anti-voto' figure for Rafael López Aliaga from the recent IEP national surveys, including those from March and April 2026 [[^]](https://www.cronicaviva.com.pe/encuesta-iep-54-rechaza-y-nunca-votaria-por-keiko-fujimori-le-sigue-cesar-acuna-con-7-3/). While later surveys address general candidate standings and voting intentions for various figures, the data primarily concentrates on Keiko Fujimori's rejection rate. Therefore, a direct comparison of precise rejection rates between Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga cannot be made with the given sources. ## Which Political Party Leads Peruvian Campaign Spending for Elecciones 2026? Leading Campaign Spender | Alianza para el Progreso (APP) [[^]](http://americatv.com.pe/noticias/actualidad/app-lidera-gasto-campana-amplia-ventaja-sobre-rivales-n516863) | Total Spending (33 Parties) | Over 15 million soles [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/03/29/elecciones-2026-6-planchas-presidenciales-no-presentaron-informe-de-gastos-en-campana-ante-la-onpe-hnews-2563397) | Parties Not Submitting Reports | 6 presidential tickets by March 29, 2026 [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/03/29/elecciones-2026-6-planchas-presidenciales-no-presentaron-informe-de-gastos-en-campana-ante-la-onpe-hnews-2563397) | **The Alianza para el Progreso (APP) party leads campaign spending for Elecciones 2026** The Alianza para el Progreso (APP) party leads campaign spending for Elecciones 2026. According to recent declarations to Peru's Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), APP is the frontrunner in both private financing volume and overall expenditure, demonstrating a significant financial advantage over its competitors [[^]](http://americatv.com.pe/noticias/actualidad/app-lidera-gasto-campana-amplia-ventaja-sobre-rivales-n516863). The official ONPE Clarity Portal serves as the primary source for these financial declarations, providing a centralized platform for tracking campaign finances [[^]](https://claridadportal.onpe.gob.pe/). Campaign finance reporting shows significant transparency issues in Peru's electoral process. Only nine political tickets have consistently reported their campaign expenses to ONPE [[^]](https://caretas.pe/politica/informes-gastos-campana-onpe-2026-planchas-presidenciales/). As of March 29, 2026, six presidential tickets had failed to submit their expenditure reports. Cumulatively, 33 political parties have spent more than 15 million soles on their campaigns [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/politica/2026/03/29/elecciones-2026-6-planchas-presidenciales-no-presentaron-informe-de-gastos-en-campana-ante-la-onpe-hnews-2563397). Media spending raises transparency concerns, despite public funding allocation by ONPE. While specific private media financing breakdowns are not individually detailed for the largest single party, campaign spending generally includes substantial media buys. ONPE has allocated economic resources for 39 political parties to contract propaganda within the publicly funded 'franja electoral' [[^]](https://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2026-onpe-establece-adjudicacion-economica-a-39-partidos-para-contratar-propaganda-en-franja-electoral-elecciones-primarias-ultimas-noticia/), [[^]](http://elcomercio.com.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2026-onpe-establece-adjudicacion-economica-a-39-partidos-para-contratar-propaganda-en-franja-electoral-elecciones-primarias-ultimas-noticia/). However, investigative reports, including one from 'El Comercio,' have suggested that some public funds intended for electoral propaganda may have been directed to media outlets linked to the parties' own members [[^]](https://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/franja-electoral-denuncian-que-partidos-destinaron-fondos-publicos-a-medios-de-comunicacion-vinculados-a-sus-militantes-elecciones-2026-ultimas-noticia/). Despite these transparency issues surrounding media contracts, APP's overall leading position in campaign spending [[^]](http://americatv.com.pe/noticias/actualidad/app-lidera-gasto-campana-amplia-ventaja-sobre-rivales-n516863) suggests a considerable allocation towards comprehensive media outreach. ## Which Candidate Saw the Largest Post-Debate Polling Bounce in Peru? De Soto Vote Intention Increase | 2.9 percentage points (IEP public opinion study) [[^]](https://diariocorreo.pe/politica/hernando-de-soto-sube-al-cuarto-lugar-en-intencion-de-voto-y-lescano-continua-liderando-preferencias-segun-encuesta-del-iep-elecciones-2021-nndc-noticia/) | Increase Timeframe | One week [[^]](https://diariocorreo.pe/politica/hernando-de-soto-sube-al-cuarto-lugar-en-intencion-de-voto-y-lescano-continua-liderando-preferencias-segun-encuesta-del-iep-elecciones-2021-nndc-noticia/) | De Soto Highest Poll Position | Second place (Ipsos poll) [[^]](https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2021-ipsos-hernando-de-soto-sube-al-segundo-lugar-en-intencion-de-voto-a-una-semana-de-las-elecciones-2021-noticia-1329568) | **Hernando de Soto demonstrated the largest post-debate polling surge in 2021** Hernando de Soto demonstrated the largest post-debate polling surge in 2021. During the 2021 Peruvian general election cycle, Hernando de Soto experienced the most significant and clearly documented positive polling bounce after his participation in the nationally televised JNE presidential debates, which occurred from March 29 to 31, 2021 [[^]](https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/debate-presidencial-jne-2021-fechas-formato-y-candidatos-presidenciales-que-participaran-en-el-debate-previo-a-las-elecciones-2021-debate-electoral-elecciones-generales-peru-noticia-1327811). An IEP public opinion study reported de Soto's vote intention surged from **6.9%** to **9.8%** in just one week, marking an increase of 2.9 percentage points [[^]](https://diariocorreo.pe/politica/hernando-de-soto-sube-al-cuarto-lugar-en-intencion-de-voto-y-lescano-continua-liderando-preferencias-segun-encuesta-del-iep-elecciones-2021-nndc-noticia/). This made him the candidate with the highest growth in the polls, according to IEP [[^]](https://www.exitosanoticias.pe/actualidad/elecciones-2021-hernando-soto-candidato-mayor-crecimiento-encuestas-iep-n48715). An Ipsos poll even placed him in second place in voter intention a week before the elections [[^]](https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2021-ipsos-hernando-de-soto-sube-al-segundo-lugar-en-intencion-de-voto-a-una-semana-de-las-elecciones-2021-noticia-1329568), and one report indicated he won the second presidential debate based on a reader poll [[^]](https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/03/31/de-soto-gano-el-segundo-debate-presidencial-segun-encuesta-de-la-republica-pltc). The 2016 election cycle lacked a comparable, clear post-debate bounce. In contrast, the 2016 election cycle, which featured JNE presidential debates on April 3, 2016 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peruvian_general_election,_2016), did not present specific, quantified polling bounces of the same magnitude and clarity in the 7-10 day post-debate window as seen with de Soto in 2021. Although a report suggested Keiko Fujimori "wins debates, builds lead one week from Peru election" [[^]](https://perureports.com/fujimori-wins-debates-builds-lead-one-week-perus-election/4054/), detailed polling data [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Peruvian_general_election) showed she already held a substantial lead. While shifts occurred among other candidates, a pronounced and directly attributable immediate post-debate surge backed by specific percentage points is less evident. Therefore, Hernando de Soto's polling rise in 2021 stands out as the largest historically demonstrated positive polling bounce following the JNE debates. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** March 25, 2027 - **Closes:** March 25, 2027 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?](/markets/elections/international/will-alberta-vote-to-secede-from-canada/) - [Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?](/markets/elections/trump/will-trump-be-allowed-to-run-for-a-3rd-term/) - [2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?](/markets/elections/us-elections/2026-2026-midterms-congress-balance-of-power/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.