# Indiana's 2nd District margin of victory

Indiana's 2nd District

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/indiana-s-2nd-district-margin-of-victory/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Republicans will win Indiana's 2nd District by 10 or more points, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Incumbent Rudy Yakym won the 2024 election by a 28.3-point margin.** - The district consistently maintains a 'Solid Republican' rating from outlets.
- Rudy Yakym significantly out-raised challenger Jamee Decio for the 2026 cycle.
- No significant national Democratic group support appears indicated for Decio.
- A Democratic primary for challengers is set for May 5, 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **93%** **probability** exceeds the 90c **market** price by 3 points, with Yakym maintaining a strong position in a safe Republican district.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republicans, 10+ pts | 90.0% | 93.0% | Incumbent Yakym won the 2024 election by 28.3 points in a 'Solid Republican' district. |
| Republicans, 13+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% | Incumbent Yakym won the 2024 election by 28.3 points in a 'Solid Republican' district. |
| Republicans, 16+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% | Incumbent Yakym won the 2024 election by 28.3 points in a 'Solid Republican' district. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Republicans, 10+ pts | 90.0% | 93.0% |
| Republicans, 13+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Republicans, 16+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Republicans, 19+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Republicans, 22+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Republicans, 25+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Republicans, 28+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Republicans, 31+ pts | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Republicans, 34+ pts | 0.0% | 15.0% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market experienced a dramatic and rapid upward trend. The price began at a low of 1.0% on May 5, 2026, and then surged to 90.0% just two days later. This significant price spike appears to be a direct reaction to the primary election results on May 5, when the incumbent, Rudy Yakym, secured the Republican nomination unopposed. The clarification of the general election matchup, with Yakym as the confirmed Republican candidate, seems to have caused traders to rapidly re-evaluate the likely margin of victory, leading to the sharp increase in probability.

Since reaching the 90.0% level, the price has remained stable, suggesting this point has become a strong level of support and reflects a new market consensus. The total volume of 1,477 contracts indicates a moderate level of trading activity over the life of the market, though the sample data shows very low volume around the time of the price jump, which could suggest the shift was caused by a few decisive trades or a market re-pricing rather than broad participation. Overall, the chart indicates a very high degree of market confidence in a specific outcome. The sustained price at 90.0% demonstrates a strong and settled belief among participants about the eventual margin of victory in Indiana's 2nd District.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Indiana's 2nd District by 22 percentage points or more. It resolves to No if they win by less than 22 percentage points, tie, or lose. The margin is calculated as the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the closest opponent's, with no rounding, and verified by the official election authority. The market opened on May 5, 2026, and closes early upon certified results or by November 3, 2027, with payout 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

The 2026 election for Indiana's 2nd Congressional District is anticipated to result in a significant Republican victory, with political forecasting outlets uniformly rating it as a "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican" seat, supported by an R+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index [[^]](https://www.abc57.com/news/indiana-district-2-candidates-talk-iran-accountability-and-transparency). Prediction markets suggest a high probability of Republican incumbent Rudy Yakym, who ran unopposed in his primary, winning by a substantial margin against Democratic nominee Jamee Decio, who secured her primary with over 70% of the vote [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-in02r). For example, there is a 58% chance of a Republican victory by 19 percentage points or more, and a 48% probability of a win by 22 percentage points or more [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-in02r).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republicans, 10+ pts | 89% | 90% | 90% | $1,477 | $577 |
| Republicans, 13+ pts | 78% | 79% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Republicans, 16+ pts | 67% | 68% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Republicans, 19+ pts | 58% | 59% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Republicans, 22+ pts | 48% | 49% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Republicans, 25+ pts | 37% | 38% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Republicans, 28+ pts | 27% | 28% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Republicans, 31+ pts | 18% | 19% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Republicans, 34+ pts | 10% | 11% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## How did Rudy Yakym's 28.3-point margin of victory in the 2024 general election compare to Donald Trump's performance in the district that same year?

Yakym 2024 election margin | 28.1 points [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024) |
Yakym 2024 vote share | 62.7% [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024) |
Camp 2024 vote share | 34.6% [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024) |

**Rudy Yakym secured a significant victory in the 2024 Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election**

Rudy Yakym secured a significant victory in the 2024 Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election. He won the general election by a margin of approximately 28.1 points over his opponent, Camp. Yakym's total vote share was **62.7%**, while Camp received **34.6%** of the votes cast [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024).

Trump's district performance cannot be directly compared to Yakym's. A direct comparison between Yakym's electoral performance and Donald Trump's 2024 presidential vote margin specifically within Indiana's 2nd District is currently not feasible. This is due to the absence of available sources providing Donald Trump's 2024 presidential vote margin for this particular congressional district [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024).

## What historical election data and demographic trends in Indiana's 2nd District underpin its 'Safe Republican' rating from outlets like the Cook Political Report?

Cook Political Report Rating | Safe Republican (Cook Political Report [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana's_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District)) |
Cook Partisan Voter Index | R+13 (2025 PVI cycle [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana's_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District)) |
2024 Election Margin | approx. 28.1 percentage points (Yakym vs. Camp [[^]](https://ppe.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/indiana-us-house-district-2-results)[[^]](http://www.ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)) |

**Indiana's 2nd District consistently maintains a 'Safe Republican' rating**

Indiana's 2nd District consistently maintains a 'Safe Republican' rating. This classification comes from outlets such as the Cook Political Report, which assigns a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+13 for the 2025 PVI cycle [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana's_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District). Ballotpedia further reinforces this assessment, reporting ratings of Solid Republican and Safe Republican for the 2026 race [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana's_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District). This strong Republican advantage is consistently underpinned by historical election outcomes and specific demographic trends within the district [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana's_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2018)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana's_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](http://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US1802-congressional-district-2-in/)[[^]](https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-2-in).

Recent election results demonstrate consistent Republican dominance in the district. Historical House general election margins since 2016 consistently show significant Republican strength. Representative Walorski achieved victories by approximately 22.3 points in 2016, 9.6 points in 2018, and 23.0 points in 2020 [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2018)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana's_2nd_congressional_district). Continuing this trend, Representative Yakym secured the 2022 regular election with a margin of approximately 32.2 points [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2018)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana's_2nd_congressional_district). In the 2024 general election, Yakym received **62.7%** of the vote against Camp's **34.6%**, reflecting a margin of approximately 28.1 percentage points [[^]](https://ppe.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/indiana-us-house-district-2-results)[[^]](http://www.ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024).

Key demographic characteristics reinforce the district's Republican leanings. The district's demographic profile significantly contributes to its 'Safe Republican' classification. It features high educational attainment, with **88.5%** of residents possessing a high school diploma or higher, and **25.4%** holding a bachelor’s degree or higher [[^]](http://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US1802-congressional-district-2-in/)[[^]](https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-2-in)[[^]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_2nd_congressional_district). The median household income is approximately **$66,934** [[^]](http://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US1802-congressional-district-2-in/)[[^]](https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-2-in)[[^]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_2nd_congressional_district). These attributes are indicative of a socially and economically established, non-highly-urban electorate, rather than a rapidly diversifying metropolitan swing area [[^]](http://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US1802-congressional-district-2-in/)[[^]](https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-2-in)[[^]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana%27s_2nd_congressional_district).

## Is there any indication of significant spending or campaign support for Jamee Decio from national Democratic groups like the DCCC for the 2026 general election?

Candidate Status | Democratic nominee for Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District (November 2026 general election) [[^]](https://www.wndu.com/2026/05/06/jamee-decio-wins-democratic-nomination-indianas-2nd-congressional-district/) |
DCCC Spending for Jamee Decio | No clear transaction-level finding of significant DCCC spending in IN-02 for Decio [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN02189/) |
Decio Campaign Contributions | $86,564 (as of 2026) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Jamee_Decio) |

**No significant DCCC support is currently indicated for Jamee Decio**

No significant DCCC support is currently indicated for Jamee Decio. As of the available information, there is no clear evidence of substantial spending or campaign assistance from national Democratic groups, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), for Jamee Decio in the 2026 general election. While Jamee Decio has been confirmed as the Democratic nominee for Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District [[^]](https://www.wndu.com/2026/05/06/jamee-decio-wins-democratic-nomination-indianas-2nd-congressional-district/), a review of the FEC candidate overview for "DECIO, JAMEE MS." does not reveal transaction-level findings of significant DCCC spending on her behalf in the IN-02 general election [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN02189/).

DCCC's public target lists omit Indiana's 2nd Congressional District. Furthermore, retrieved DCCC announcements for their 2026 "Red to Blue," "Frontline," and "Districts in Play" programs, which outline where the committee intends to allocate resources, did not provide specific links to Indiana's 2nd Congressional District or Jamee Decio in the content surfaced by this research [[^]](https://dccc.org/dccc-announces-second-expansion-of-the-house-battlefield-for-2026-cycle-with-5-new-offensive-targets/)[[^]](https://dccc.org/2026-frontline/)[[^]](https://rollcall.com/2026/02/10/democrats-midterm-elections-dccc-target-list/).

Decio's campaign finances do not reflect national group support. Third-party data from Ballotpedia shows Jamee Decio has disclosed federal campaign contributions totaling **$86,564** and expenditures amounting to **$80,639** for 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Jamee_Decio). It is important to note that these figures represent her own campaign's financial activities and do not indicate independent spending or coordinated support from the DCCC in the general election [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Jamee_Decio).

## Based on 2026 primary results, what does Jamee Decio's vote total suggest about Democratic base enthusiasm compared to the 2024 cycle?

Decio's 2024 Primary Votes | Over 18,000 votes [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=time+in+United+States+of+America) |
Decio's 2024 Primary Vote Share | 70.56% (with 99% counted) [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=time+in+United+States+of+America)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024_(May_7_Democratic_primary)) |
Camp's 2024 Primary Status | Unopposed [[^]](https://www.abc57.com/news/democratic-candidate-enters-race-against-rep-rudy-yakm-right-before-deadline) |

**Jamee Decio secured a strong victory in her 2024 primary race**

Jamee Decio secured a strong victory in her 2024 primary race. She received over 18,000 votes, successfully defeating her opponent, Shaun Michael Maeyens, who garnered over 7,000 votes [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=time+in+United+States+of+America). With **99%** of the votes counted, Decio's commanding performance resulted in a **70.56%** vote share [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=time+in+United+States+of+America)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024_(May_7_Democratic_primary)).

However, no 2026 primary data exists to assess Democratic enthusiasm. The available research focuses exclusively on the 2024 election cycle and does not provide any information regarding Jamee Decio's 2026 primary results. Additionally, a comparable contested primary scenario from 2024 is unavailable for analysis, as another candidate, Camp, was unopposed in the May 2024 primary [[^]](https://www.abc57.com/news/democratic-candidate-enters-race-against-rep-rudy-yakm-right-before-deadline). Consequently, based solely on the provided information, it is not possible to determine what Decio's 2026 vote total suggests about Democratic base enthusiasm compared to the 2024 cycle.

## How do incumbent Rudy Yakym's and challenger Jamee Decio's fundraising totals for the 2026 cycle compare as of the latest FEC filing?

Rudy Yakym Total Raised | $2,943,661 (as of December 31, 2025) [[^]](https://dailyjournal.net/2026/02/04/fundraising-picks-up-for-indiana-congressional-races/) |
Jamee Decio Total Raised | $86,563 (as of December 31, 2025) [[^]](https://dailyjournal.net/2026/02/04/fundraising-picks-up-for-indiana-congressional-races/) |
Rudy Yakym Cash on Hand | $1,494,844 (as of December 31, 2025) [[^]](https://dailyjournal.net/2026/02/04/fundraising-picks-up-for-indiana-congressional-races/) |

**Incumbent Rudy Yakym significantly out-raised challenger Jamee Decio for the 2026 cycle**

Incumbent Rudy Yakym significantly out-raised challenger Jamee Decio for the 2026 cycle. According to the latest FEC filings, Yakym's fundraising efforts significantly exceeded those of challenger Jamee Decio. By December 31, 2025, Yakym had accumulated **$2,943,661** in total receipts for the 2026 cycle. His fourth-quarter FEC disclosure, filed on January 31, 2026, reported **$548,300** in new fundraising during that period and a substantial **$1,494,844** in cash on hand as of December 31, 2025 [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Rudy+Yakym+III+just+disclosed+%24548.3K+of+new+fundraising).

In contrast, Jamee Decio's fundraising totals were considerably lower. As of December 31, 2025, Decio had raised a total of **$86,563** and reported only **$5,924** in cash on hand. These figures represent her total receipts for the period spanning from July 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [[^]](https://dailyjournal.net/2026/02/04/fundraising-picks-up-for-indiana-congressional-races/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**A nearer-term catalyst for the general-election matchup is the May 5, 2026 Democratic primary [[^]](https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-04-21/two-democrats-are-vying-to-challenge-republican-rudy-yakym-to-represent-michiana-in-indianas-2nd-congressional-district).** Two Democrats, Jamee Decio and Shaun Maeyens, competed for the right to challenge Rudy Yakym, who was running unopposed in the Republican primary [[^]](https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-04-21/two-democrats-are-vying-to-challenge-republican-rudy-yakym-to-represent-michiana-in-indianas-2nd-congressional-district). The primary filing deadline for this cycle was Feb 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/files/2026-Candidate-Guide.FINAL.pdf). The Indiana 2nd Congressional District (IN-02) House race

’s general election is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/files/2026-Calendar-Brochure.FINAL-VERSION.pdf)[[^]](https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/files/2026-Candidate-Guide.FINAL.pdf).

**Polymarket

’s IN-02

“House Election Winner

” market currently assigns approximately 92% probability to the Republican Party and approximately 9% to the Democratic Party, with the market resolving around Nov 3, 2026 [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/in-02-house-election-winner).** Structural information indicates the district is a Cook PVI R+13 seat, where Rudy Yakym won **63%** compared to a Democrat

’s **35%** in 2024, implying consensus odds around approximately **91%** Republican [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/in-02-house-election-winner). The main local

“bearish

” pathway for Republicans, which could see Democrats make inroads, would be a late campaign surge or a Yakym-specific scandal [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/in-02-house-election-winner). These are listed as realistic challenges to the incumbency and dominance baseline [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/in-02-house-election-winner).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- A nearer-term catalyst for the general-election matchup is the May 5, 2026 Democratic primary [^] .
- Two Democrats, Jamee Decio and Shaun Maeyens, competed for the right to challenge Rudy Yakym, who was running unopposed in the Republican primary [^] .
- The primary filing deadline for this cycle was Feb 6, 2026 [^] .
- The Indiana 2nd Congressional District (IN-02) House race ’s general election is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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