# Hawaii 02 House General Election: voter turnout

Hawaii 02 House General Election

Updated: May 7, 2026

Category: Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/hawaii-02-house-general-election-voter-turnout/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for voter turnout "Above 195K" (20.0% model vs 0.0% market).** This divergence is driven by the most recent 2024 general election turnout for Hawaii's 2nd District significantly exceeding the **market**'s upper bracket.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - The 2024 general election turnout significantly exceeded the market's upper bracket.** - New automatic voter registration law not expected to impact 2026 turnout.
- Hawaii's 2nd District 2022 turnout fell within current **market** projections.
- Jill Tokuda's campaign appears to maintain a substantial financial advantage.
- Historical data shows no clear correlation between victory margin and turnout.
- Incumbent Jill Tokuda is unopposed in the upcoming primary election.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **20%** vs 0c **market** price with a 0.0x payout, despite 2024 turnout exceeding 230,000 ballots.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 195K | 0.0% | 20.0% | The most recent 2024 general election turnout was 250,156 total ballots cast. |
| Above 200K | 0.0% | 20.0% | The most recent 2024 general election turnout was 250,156 total ballots cast. |
| Above 210K | 0.0% | 20.0% | The most recent 2024 general election turnout was 250,156 total ballots cast. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 195K | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above 200K | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above 210K | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above 220K | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Above 230K | 0.0% | 20.0% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market's price chart is completely static, showing a total absence of trading activity. The probability has remained fixed at its opening price of 83.0%. With no price fluctuations, there are no significant movements, spikes, or drops to analyze or correlate with news about the candidates or the expected dynamics of the race. The overall trend is flat, simply reflecting the market's inactivity since its inception.

The lack of activity is further confirmed by a total traded volume of zero contracts. This indicates that no participants have engaged with the market, and therefore the current price does not reflect any collective conviction or informed sentiment. Without any trading history, there are no established support or resistance levels; the 83.0% mark is merely an untested opening price. The chart suggests the market is currently illiquid and does not yet represent a meaningful forecast from traders.

## Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 220K" market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the Hawaii 02 House General Election's officially certified total vote count exceeds 220,000; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is verified by the relevant election commission's official results, including all certified ballots, and the market closes upon certification or by November 3, 2027. If the election is postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to "No."

## Market Discussion

No specific voter turnout figures or detailed pre-general election discussion have been identified for the Hawaii 02 House General Election, scheduled for November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026). The district is rated Solid Democratic with a D+12 Cook PVI, and the incumbent won the 2024 general election by 66.5% [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026). These factors, alongside Polymarket odds showing a 90-92% chance of a Democratic win, indicate that the race is widely considered non-competitive [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482941).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 195K | 83% | 91% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 200K | 69% | 77% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 210K | 56% | 64% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 220K | 42% | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 230K | 29% | 37% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## How is the implementation of Hawaii's new automatic voter registration law expected to impact registration figures ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election?

AVR Law Effective Date | January 1, 2027 [[^]](https://www.courthousenews.com/hawaii-legislature-passes-bills-for-automatic-voter-registration-native-homestead-rights/) |
SB 2239 Passage Date | May 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.courthousenews.com/hawaii-legislature-passes-bills-for-automatic-voter-registration-native-homestead-rights/) |
National AVR Registration Increase | 9-94% [[^]](http://brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/avr-impact-state-voter-registration) |

**Hawaii's new automatic voter registration will not affect 2026 figures**

Hawaii's new automatic voter registration will not affect 2026 figures. Hawaii's newly enacted automatic voter registration (AVR) law is not expected to influence voter registration numbers for the upcoming November 3, 2026 general election. This is primarily because the law's effective date is January 1, 2027, which falls after the 2026 election cycle [[^]](https://www.courthousenews.com/hawaii-legislature-passes-bills-for-automatic-voter-registration-native-homestead-rights/).

The AVR legislation establishes an opt-out system for future elections. Senate Bill 2239, which outlines the new AVR system, passed the Senate 24-1 and the House 40-11 on May 6, 2026, before being sent to Governor Green [[^]](https://www.courthousenews.com/hawaii-legislature-passes-bills-for-automatic-voter-registration-native-homestead-rights/). This legislation will convert the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to an opt-out system for voter registration, which also includes automatic address updates. However, these system changes will not be active for the 2026 election due to the law's post-election effective date [[^]](https://www.courthousenews.com/hawaii-legislature-passes-bills-for-automatic-voter-registration-native-homestead-rights/).

National AVR trends will not apply to Hawaii's 2026 election. While automatic voter registration has been shown nationally to increase registrations significantly, ranging from **9%** to **94%** in various states, this potential impact will not materialize in Hawaii for the 2026 election [[^]](http://brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/avr-impact-state-voter-registration). The Department of Motor Vehicles had previously raised concerns about the necessary IT infrastructure, training, and funding required for the new system's implementation [[^]](https://www.courthousenews.com/hawaii-legislature-passes-bills-for-automatic-voter-registration-native-homestead-rights/). Currently, there are no specific projections available regarding Hawaii's voter rolls for 2026 [[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/main/hawaii-voters-to-receive-voter-registration-notices-ahead-of-2026-elections/), and same-day registration is already an available option for voters [[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/registration-voter-turnout-statistics/).

## How does the official voter turnout in Hawaii's 2nd District for the 2022 and 2024 general elections compare to the current market's brackets of 195K to 230K?

2022 HI-02 Total Ballots Cast | 206,411 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2022)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2022) |
2024 HI-02 Total Ballots Cast | 250,156 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2024) |
2024 Turnout vs. Market Bracket | Exceeded 195K-230K bracket by 20K [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2024) |

**Hawaii's 2nd District 2022 turnout fell within market projections**

Hawaii's 2nd District 2022 turnout fell within **market** projections. In the 2022 general election, Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District recorded 206,411 total ballots cast [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2022)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2022). This figure included 128,407 votes for Jill Tokuda, 72,874 for Joseph Akana, and 5,130 for Michelle Tippens [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2022)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2022). The 2022 turnout of 206,000 was within the projected **market** bracket of 195,000 to 230,000 for the district [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2022). Statewide turnout in 2022 reached 419,363 ballots, representing a **48.7%** participation rate [[^]](https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/databook/db2022/section08.pdf).

2024 election turnout in District 2 significantly surpassed **market** expectations. Voter turnout for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 general election increased substantially, reaching 250,156 total ballots cast [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2024). This turnout figure exceeded the upper limit of the 195,000 to 230,000 **market** bracket by 20,000 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2024). In the 2024 election, Jill Tokuda received 166,251 votes, Steven Bond 75,471, Eli Toman 4,497, and Thomas Meyer 3,937 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2024). Statewide turnout in 2024 reached 522,236 ballots, indicating a **60.7%** participation rate [[^]](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/53d73ab7ef824fd6865896c19ce31948)[[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?elect=0&f=0&fips=15&off=0&year=2024).

## How do the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) resources and strategies of Jill Tokuda's and Brenton Awa's campaigns compare for the 2026 election cycle?

Tokuda Cash on Hand | $502,261 (as of December 31, 2025) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/04/incumbents-lead-the-money-race-for-congress-will-outside-groups-wade-in/) |
Awa Cash on Hand | $46,679 (as of December 31, 2025) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/04/incumbents-lead-the-money-race-for-congress-will-outside-groups-wade-in/) |
Tokuda Q1 2026 Fundraising | $193,000 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/04/incumbents-lead-the-money-race-for-congress-will-outside-groups-wade-in/) |

**Jill Tokuda's campaign maintains a substantial financial advantage over Brenton Awa's**

Jill Tokuda's campaign maintains a substantial financial advantage over Brenton Awa's. As of December 31, 2025, Tokuda's campaign reported **$502,261** cash on hand, significantly more than Awa's **$46,679** [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/04/incumbents-lead-the-money-race-for-congress-will-outside-groups-wade-in/). This financial disparity continued into the first quarter of 2026, when Tokuda raised **$193,000,** dwarfing Awa's **$13,500** in contributions [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/04/incumbents-lead-the-money-race-for-congress-will-outside-groups-wade-in/). Tokuda's fundraising efforts have also featured warnings regarding the influence of GOP dark money [[^]](https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/04/incumbents-lead-the-money-race-for-congress-will-outside-groups-wade-in/).

Direct get-out-the-vote strategies are not explicitly detailed for either campaign. However, Brenton Awa's campaign has indicated plans to introduce legislation in 2026 aimed at improving election day access [[^]](https://www.votebrentonawa.com/about). This initiative stems from his personal experience with six-hour waiting lines during the 2024 election cycle [[^]](https://www.votebrentonawa.com/about).

## What historical, precinct-level voter turnout data is available from the Hawaii Office of Elections for the 2020, 2022, and 2024 general elections in HI-02?

2024 Total Ballots Cast (Statewide) | 522,236 [[^]](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/53d73ab7ef824fd6865896c19ce31948)[[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=3&fips=15&year=2024) |
2024 Registered Voters (Statewide) | 860,868 [[^]](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/53d73ab7ef824fd6865896c19ce31948)[[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=3&fips=15&year=2024) |
2024 Turnout Percentage (Statewide) | 60.7% [[^]](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/53d73ab7ef824fd6865896c19ce31948)[[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=3&fips=15&year=2024) |

**The Hawaii Office of Elections provides historical, precinct-level voter turnout data for HI-02 [[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/2020-general-election/)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/precinct.pdf)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/2022-general-election/)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/Statewide-Precinct-Report-2024-November-5th-General-OFFICIAL-11-5-2024-23-41-27-PM.pdf)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/2024-general-election/)[[^]](http://elections.hawaii.gov/election-results)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/districts-and-precincts/)**

The Hawaii Office of Elections provides historical, precinct-level voter turnout data for HI-02 [[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/2020-general-election/)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/precinct.pdf)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/2022-general-election/)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/Statewide-Precinct-Report-2024-November-5th-General-OFFICIAL-11-5-2024-23-41-27-PM.pdf)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/2024-general-election/)[[^]](http://elections.hawaii.gov/election-results)[[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/districts-and-precincts/). This information, covering the 2020, 2022, and 2024 general elections, is accessible via statewide precinct PDFs on the official site. These documents detail registered voters and mail/in-person turnout percentages for each precinct. Precincts specific to HI-02 are identified as U.S. REP=II, and a dedicated precinct-district mapping table confirms their composition [[^]](https://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/districts-and-precincts/).

Hawaii's 2024 general election saw **60.7%** statewide voter turnout [[^]](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/53d73ab7ef824fd6865896c19ce31948)[[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=3&fips=15&year=2024). This figure resulted from 522,236 ballots cast by 860,868 registered voters across the state [[^]](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/53d73ab7ef824fd6865896c19ce31948)[[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=3&fips=15&year=2024).

## What is the historical correlation between the margin of victory in Hawaii's 2nd District and total voter turnout in general elections from 2016 to 2024?

Highest Total Votes | 272,102 (2020) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii) |
Lowest Total Votes | Approximately 198,121 (2018) [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2018) |
Highest Margin of Victory | 62.4 percentage points (2016) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2016)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii) |

**Historical data shows no clear correlation between victory margin and voter turnout**

Historical data shows no clear correlation between victory margin and voter turnout. Based on the provided general election data for Hawaii's 2nd District from 2016 to 2024, no consistent positive or negative relationship is evident between the margin of victory and total voter turnout [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2016)[[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2018)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2022)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2024). Over this period, total voter turnout fluctuated, ranging from approximately 198,121 in 2018 [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2018) to its highest at 272,102 in 2020 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii). Similarly, the margin of victory varied considerably, from a high of 62.4 percentage points in 2016 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2016)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii) to a low of 27.0 percentage points in 2022 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2022).

Each election year presented distinct voter turnout and victory margin figures. In 2016, the district recorded 210,516 total votes, with the margin of victory standing at 62.4 percentage points [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2016)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii). The 2018 election saw approximately 198,121 total votes and a margin of 54.8 percentage points [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2018). For the 2020 election, total votes increased to 272,102, alongside a margin of 32.1 percentage points [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii). The 2022 election reported total votes ranging from 205,558 to 206,411, with a margin of 27.0 percentage points [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2022). Most recently, the 2024 election generated 250,156 total votes and a margin of 36.3 percentage points [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii%27s_2nd_congressional_district)[[^]](https://rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=02&s=HI&t=H&y=2024).

## What Could Change the Odds

**While incumbent Jill Tokuda (D) is unopposed in the primary [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_8_Democratic_primary)) and Polymarket odds as of early 2026 indicate a Democratic win at 90-91% [[^]](https://base.polymarket.com/event/hi-02-house-election-winner)[[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/hi-02-house-election-winner), potential shifts could emerge.** The district's D+12 Cook PVI and Tokuda's 2024 results, showing her with **66.5%** of the vote against the GOP's **30.2%** [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482941)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii's_2nd_congressional_district), highlight the Democratic advantage. However, despite Tokuda's ~**$600**k cash-on-hand compared to Brenton Awa's (GOP) lower figures, the formation of a Republican super PAC is reported [[^]](https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/04/incumbents-lead-the-money-race-for-congress-will-outside-groups-wade-in/), which could influence the financial landscape of the race.

**Legislative changes in Hawaii also present potential catalysts for the election outcome.** The Hawaii Legislature passed bills for automatic voter registration [[^]](https://www.courthousenews.com/hawaii-legislature-passes-bills-for-automatic-voter-registration-native-homestead-rights/), which may boost turnout [[^]](https://www.courthousenews.com/hawaii-legislature-passes-bills-for-automatic-voter-registration-native-homestead-rights/). Furthermore, Hawaii is pushing bills aimed at limiting campaign finance, in response to Citizens United [[^]](https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/05/07/hawaii-news/bill-limiting-mainland-campaign-activity-faces-likely-passage/), and banning prediction markets [[^]](https://sbcamericas.com/2026/02/06/hawaii-committee-prediction-markets-ban/)[[^]](https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/3/19/prediction-**market**-regulation-heats-up-as-states-lose-600-million-in-tax-revenue). A bill specifically limiting mainland campaign activity faces likely passage [[^]](https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/05/07/hawaii-news/bill-limiting-mainland-campaign-activity-faces-likely-passage/), which could alter campaign strategies and financial flows.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- While incumbent Jill Tokuda (D) is unopposed in the primary [^] [^] and Polymarket odds as of early 2026 indicate a Democratic win at 90-**91%** [^] [^] , potential shifts could emerge.
- The district's D+12 Cook PVI and Tokuda's 2024 results, showing her with **66.5%** of the vote against the GOP's **30.2%** [^] [^] , highlight the Democratic advantage.
- However, despite Tokuda's ~**$600**k cash-on-hand compared to Brenton Awa's (GOP) lower figures, the formation of a Republican super PAC is reported [^] , which could influence the financial landscape of the race.
- Legislative changes in Hawaii also present potential catalysts for the election outcome.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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