# Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (4/24-5/1)? 4/24 to 5/1 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Elections HTML: /markets/elections/generic-ballot-democrats-up-down-4-24-5-1/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the Democrats' generic ballot to be Above **5.5%** between April 24th and May 1st, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Marquette Law School poll consistently releases generic ballot data.** - RealClearPolitics removes older polls by May 1st, potentially shifting averages. - Economist/YouGov poll expected soon; typically shows a Democratic lean. - FiveThirtyEight favors live-caller poll methodologies in its average. - **Market** **probability** for "Democrats Up" saw significant drops recently. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** predicts **24.9%** versus 17c **market**, a 7.9pt gap with 5.9x payout, possibly underestimating forthcoming Democrat-leaning polls. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 5.5% | 17.0% | 24.9% | High-quality Marquette polls consistently show Democratic leads of +8, +10, and +10, all well above the 5.5% threshold, strongly suggesting a higher probability for the outcome than the market's 17.0%, despite the possibility of an unforeseen shift in public opinion during the 4/24-5/1 window. | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 24.9% (Yes) - Market Probability: 17.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Above 5.5% - Edge: +7.9pp - Expected Return: +46.3% - R-Score: 0.79 - Total Volume: $10,023.23 - 24h Volume: $2,825.07 - Open Interest: $3,492.79 - Expiration: May 1, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market has experienced a significant and sustained downward trend, opening at a 52.0% YES probability and falling to its current price of 17.0%. The decline was marked by two sharp drops. The first occurred on April 26, when the price fell 11.0 percentage points from 55.0% to 44.0%. This was followed by an even more substantial 21.0 percentage point drop on April 28, which brought the price from 38.0% down to the current low of 17.0%. The provided context does not offer a specific news event or catalyst to explain these sharp price decreases. The trading volume provides insight into market conviction during these moves. The initial drop on April 26 was accompanied by a significant volume of 1,125 contracts traded, suggesting that the move was backed by strong selling pressure. The total volume of 10,023 contracts over the market's lifespan indicates active participation. The high volume accompanying the price declines suggests a firm conviction among traders that the outlook for a Democratic lead in the generic ballot was worsening. From a technical perspective, the market has established a new low at 17.0%, which currently acts as a support level. The previous price floor around the 38%-44% range was decisively broken and may now serve as a resistance level should the price attempt to recover. Overall, the price action reflects a dramatic shift in market sentiment. Traders have moved from a position of slight optimism (above 50%) to a strong consensus that the Democratic generic ballot numbers will not be "Up" for the resolution period. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 April 28, 2026: 21.0pp drop Price decreased from 38.0% to 17.0% **Outcome:** Above 5.5% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 26, 2026: 11.0pp drop Price decreased from 55.0% to 44.0% **Outcome:** Above 5.5% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves YES if the time-weighted VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (Democrats minus Republicans) is above 5.5% at 10:00 AM ET on May 1, 2026. Conversely, it resolves NO if this margin is 5.5% or below at that time, with the outcome verified from VoteHub. The market opened on April 24, 2026, closes on May 1, 2026, at 9:59 AM EDT, and has a projected payout date of July 30, 2026. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 5.5% | 17% | 18% | 17% | $10,023.23 | $3,492.79 | ## What Are Marquette Law School Poll's Recent Generic Ballot Results? April 2026 Democratic Margin | +8 (April 17-22, 2026) [[^]](https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/04/23/new-marquette-law-school-poll-national-survey-finds-partisan-divides-on-most-supreme-court-cases-with-varying-views-of-trump-playing-a-large-role-including-within-republican-opinion/) | January 2026 Democratic Margin | +10 (January 21-28, 2026) [[^]](https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/02/04/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-supreme-court-poll-jan-21-28-2025-national-issues/) | November 2025 Democratic Margin | +10 (November 19-25, 2025) [[^]](https://today.marquette.edu/2025/11/new-marquette-law-poll-national-survey-11-19-2025/) | **The Marquette Law School Poll consistently releases generic ballot data month-end** The Marquette Law School Poll consistently releases generic ballot data month-end. This institution maintains a FiveThirtyEight rating of 'B' or higher, and its national surveys frequently include generic congressional ballot questions [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin). Fieldwork periods such as November 19-25, 2025 [[^]](https://today.marquette.edu/2025/11/new-marquette-law-poll-national-survey-11-19-2025/), January 21-28, 2026 [[^]](https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/02/04/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-supreme-court-poll-jan-21-28-2025-national-issues/), and April 17-22, 2026 [[^]](https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/04/23/new-marquette-law-school-poll-national-survey-finds-partisan-divides-on-most-supreme-court-cases-with-varying-views-of-trump-playing-a-large-role-including-within-republican-opinion/) illustrate a reliable pattern of conducting and releasing generic ballot polls with fieldwork concluding in the last week of the month. Democrats showed consistent leads in recent Marquette Law School polls. Prior to April 24, 2026, the three most recent generic ballot polls from Marquette Law School indicated Democratic leads. The poll conducted from April 17-22, 2026, showed a +8 Democratic margin, with **48%** favoring Democrats and **40%** favoring Republicans [[^]](https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/04/23/new-marquette-law-school-poll-national-survey-finds-partisan-divides-on-most-supreme-court-cases-with-varying-views-of-trump-playing-a-large-role-including-within-republican-opinion/). The earlier January 21-28, 2026, poll reported a +10 Democratic lead, with **46%** support for Democrats and **36%** for Republicans [[^]](https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/02/04/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-supreme-court-poll-jan-21-28-2025-national-issues/). Similarly, the November 19-25, 2025, survey also registered a +10 Democratic margin, reflecting **47%** support for Democrats versus **37%** for Republicans [[^]](https://today.marquette.edu/2025/11/new-marquette-law-poll-national-survey-11-19-2025/). ## Which 2026 Generic Congressional Vote Polls Are Expiring Soon? Poll Expiration Criteria | Older than three weeks (RealClearPolitics) [[^]](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2026_generic_congressional_vote-8670.html) | Number of Polls Expiring | 4 polls by May 1st (RealClearPolitics) [[^]](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2026_generic_congressional_vote-8670.html) | Marist Poll Margin | Democratic +2 (RealClearPolitics) [[^]](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2026_generic_congressional_vote-8670.html) | **RealClearPolitics removes polls older than three weeks by May 1st from its 2026 Generic Congressional Vote average** RealClearPolitics removes polls older than three weeks by May 1st from its 2026 Generic Congressional Vote average. As of April 23rd, 2024, this policy means any poll with an end date on or before April 2nd, 2024, will be considered expired and removed from the average [[^]](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2026_generic_congressional_vote-8670.html). Four specific polls with varying Democratic margins will expire by May 1st. The Marist poll, conducted March 25-28, 2024, showed Democrats with a +2 margin. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, completed March 18-20, 2024, indicated a Democratic margin of +1. Harvard/Harris, which ran March 16-18, 2024, reported a Democratic margin of +3. Lastly, the FOX News poll, conducted March 10-13, 2024, registered a Republican margin of +1, which translates to a Democratic margin of -1 [[^]](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2026_generic_congressional_vote-8670.html). ## What is the Q1 2026 GDP Forecast and Political Impact? Q1 2026 GDP Consensus Forecast | 1.4% (April 30th release) [[^]](https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/4/27/gdp-mediocre-top-line,-weaker-details) | Goldman Sachs Q1 2026 GDP Projection | 1.2% [[^]](https://imeneconomics.substack.com/p/us-gdp-growth-q1-2026-what-do-you) | Generic Ballot Shift Data | Not available in provided sources [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/midterms-are-a-backlash-not-a-referendum?action=share) | **Consensus forecasts project a 1.4% GDP growth for Q1 2026** Consensus forecasts project a **1.4%** GDP growth for Q1 2026. The Advance Estimate GDP report for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30th, is anticipated to show an annualized growth rate of **1.4%** [[^]](https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/4/27/gdp-mediocre-top-line,-weaker-details). Several financial institutions echo this estimate, with Goldman Sachs projecting **1.2%** and JPMorgan forecasting **1.5%**. Some predictions are slightly higher, reaching up to **1.6%** [[^]](https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/4/27/gdp-mediocre-top-line,-weaker-details). The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow **model** also contributes to the shaping of **market** expectations [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Project/Atlanta/FRBA/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf). Specific historical data on generic ballot shifts remains unavailable. Research regarding historical shifts in the generic ballot average following significant GDP report surprises (defined as missing or beating consensus by more than **0.5%** within 48 hours) does not provide specific quantitative data. While the generic congressional ballot is recognized as an indicator of political sentiment [[^]](https://weeklystandardarchives.com/articles/the-gop-is-gaining-in-the-generic-congressional-ballot-does-that-mean-anything/) and economic conditions are understood to influence public opinion and election outcomes [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/tulsaworld/posts/but-spiking-prices-nationwide-have-shaken-the-us-economy-and-with-it-trumps-clou/1371333388361514/), the provided sources lack detailed historical statistical analysis for this precise relationship. General discussions exist concerning economic impacts on politics and midterm elections as a "backlash," but the requested specific data is not present [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/midterms-are-a-backlash-not-a-referendum?action=share). ## How Does FiveThirtyEight Weight Polls by Methodology? Highest Weighted Poll Methodology | Live-caller polls (generally) [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work) | Lowest Weighted Poll Methodology | Mail surveys (generally) [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work) | Current Methodological Distribution | Not available; dynamically changes with included polls [[^]](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028) | **FiveThirtyEight weights polls based on several factors, favoring live-caller methodologies** FiveThirtyEight weights polls based on several factors, favoring live-caller methodologies. Its polling average incorporates various polls, weighting them by factors such as the pollster's historical accuracy, methodology, recency, sample size, and partisan sponsorship [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work). Polls conducted with live interviewers typically receive heavier weighting compared to those using automated calls (IVR) or online surveys, with mail surveys generally receiving the least weight [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work). Historically, live-caller interviews have shown greater accuracy on average than robocalls or online survey methods [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-pollster-ratings-work/). However, the provided sources detail how these methodologies are weighted but do not present a current, real-time numerical distribution of the polls comprising the FiveThirtyEight average at any given moment. FiveThirtyEight's grading system adjusts pollster weight, accounting for potential outlier results. Each pollster is assigned a letter grade reflecting their historical accuracy and methodology, which helps in adjusting their weight in the average [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-pollster-ratings-work/). This grading system inherently accounts for the potential of certain methodologies or pollsters to produce results that deviate from the consensus. Pollsters with lower grades or those using less accurate methodologies, such as IVR or online-only methods without strong respondent validation, are weighted less heavily, mitigating their impact on the overall average [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work). The available sources do not provide a schedule or forecast of which pollsters are expected to release new data between April 24 and May 1, nor do they identify specific pollsters within that timeframe known for recently producing outlier results based on their methodology. ## When Are Major Political Poll Releases Expected in Late April 2026? Economist/YouGov Expected Release | April 29 - May 1, 2026 [[^]](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/weekly_update_archive/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_week_s_key_polls_week_ending_april_11_2026) | Rasmussen Reports Generic Ballot Noted | March 26, 2026 [[^]](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_march26) | Economist/YouGov Polling Tendency | Democratic lean [[^]](https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist) | **Economist/YouGov is highly likely to release a new poll soon** Economist/YouGov is highly likely to release a new poll soon. This firm, generally associated with a Democratic lean [[^]](https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist), maintains a highly consistent weekly polling schedule. Their most recent surveys covered the periods of April 10-13, 2026 [[^]](https://today.yougov.com/en-us/articles/54536-iran-gas-prices-donald-trump-health-jd-vance-marijuana-april-10-13-2026-economist-yougov-poll) and April 17-20, 2026 [[^]](https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54593-pope-leo-president-donald-trump-war-iran-ukraine-israel-april-17-20-2026-economist-yougov-poll). Based on this established pattern, a new poll release, expected to include a generic congressional ballot, is highly probable between April 29th and May 1st, 2026. Rasmussen Reports could also issue a generic congressional ballot poll. Typically showing a Republican lean [[^]](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/), Rasmussen Reports conducts regular public opinion polls, providing weekly updates such as "Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending April 11, 2026" [[^]](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/weekly_update_archive/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_week_s_key_polls_week_ending_april_11_2026). While a specific generic congressional ballot poll was last noted on March 26, 2026 [[^]](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_march26), their exact weekly cadence for generic ballot releases is not as explicitly defined as Economist/YouGov's. Nevertheless, due to their frequent polling activity, a new generic congressional ballot release from Rasmussen Reports remains a strong possibility between April 29th and May 1st, 2026. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** May 01, 2026 - **Expiration:** July 30, 2026 - **Closes:** May 01, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?](/markets/elections/international/will-alberta-vote-to-secede-from-canada/) - [Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?](/markets/elections/trump/will-trump-be-allowed-to-run-for-a-3rd-term/) - [2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?](/markets/elections/us-elections/2026-2026-midterms-congress-balance-of-power/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 3 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXGENERICBALLOTVOTEHUB-26APR24-T4.8: YES (Apr 24, 2026) - KXGENERICBALLOTVOTEHUB-26APR17-T5.4: NO (Apr 17, 2026) - KXGENERICBALLOTVOTEHUB-26APR10-T5.5: NO (Apr 10, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.