# Florida's 4th District margin of victory

Florida's 4th District

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/florida-s-4th-district-margin-of-victory/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Democrats to win Florida's 4th District by 3 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - FL-04 consistently leans Republican, affirming its "Safe Republican" designation.** - Significant external shifts are needed to overcome FL-04's Republican advantage.
- Aaron Bean secured a 14.6-point victory in Florida's 4th District in 2024.
- No district-level polling for FL-04 is available as of April 2026.
- Democratic challenger Kirwan accumulated significant fundraising as of March 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 7c (**7.1%**) is higher than the **5.3%** **model** estimate, suggesting overvaluation given FL-04's "Safe Republican" status.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 3+ pts | 7.1% | 5.3% | Local voter sentiment appears to favor the Democratic candidate in the district. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 5.3% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 7.1% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Democrats, 3+ pts
- Edge: -1.8pp
- Expected Return: -25.9%
- R-Score: -0.18
- Total Volume: $1,802
- 24h Volume: $0
- Open Interest: $1,602

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price chart for this market shows a distinct and sharp upward trend, starting from a low of 2.0% and reaching a peak of 10.0% before settling near its current level of 7.1%. The most significant event was the rapid price increase that occurred around early May 2026. This movement corresponds directly with news that a newly proposed redistricting map would not alter the boundaries of Florida's 4th District. The market initially priced in a low probability, likely accounting for the possibility that redistricting could make the district more competitive. Once it was reported that the district's R+5 partisan lean would remain intact, the price surged, reflecting a renewed expectation of a strong Republican performance.

The market has established a new trading range following this news. The peak of 10.0% has acted as an initial resistance level, while a new support level appears to have formed around the 7% mark, a significant increase from the previous 2% floor. The total volume of 1,802 contracts suggests a moderate level of engagement from traders. While the provided sample data points show no volume, the price spike itself indicates that trading activity was likely concentrated around the redistricting news, as participants reacted to the removal of a key uncertainty. The current market sentiment, as reflected by the 7.1% price, suggests traders believe there is a higher probability of a significant Republican margin of victory now that the district's favorable lines are expected to be secure for the upcoming election.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 4th District by 3 percentage points or more, otherwise it resolves to NO. The margin of victory is calculated by subtracting the trailing candidate's vote percentage from the Democratic Party's, with specific rules for handling rounding, ties, and uncontested races. The market opened on May 5, 2026, and will close early upon the publication of certified election results, or by November 3, 2027, if not settled sooner.

## Market Discussion

Prediction markets for Florida's 4th District's House election winner currently price the Republican Party's likelihood of winning between 81% and 85% [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-04-house-election-winner), implying a 14% to 19% chance for Democrats [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-04-house-election-winner). Although a market specifically tracking the margin of victory exists [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-fl04r), no current numerical margin distribution data or relevant social media discussions about the margin of victory were found [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-fl04r).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 3+ pts | 7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | $1,802 | $1,602 |

## What historical voting patterns and demographic data in Florida's 4th District support the 'Safe Republican' consensus for the 2026 general election?

Cook PVI | R+5 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District) |
2024 House Election Margin | Aaron Bean (R) won by +14.6% (57.3%-42.7%) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2024) |
2022 House Election Margin | Aaron Bean (R) won by +21.0% (60.5%-39.5%) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2022) |

**Florida's 4th Congressional District consistently leans Republican, supporting its "Safe" designation**

Florida's 4th Congressional District consistently leans Republican, supporting its "Safe" designation. The consensus designating Florida's 4th Congressional District as "Safe Republican" for the 2026 general election is strongly supported by its historical voting patterns and demographic data. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) is R+5, indicating that it performs approximately five points more Republican than the national average in relevant presidential-election comparison periods [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District).

Recent election cycles demonstrate significant Republican dominance in the district. U.S. House elections in FL-4 show substantial Republican victories. In the 2024 cycle, Aaron Bean (R) won with **57.3%** of the vote against **42.7%**, a margin of 14.6 points [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2024). This followed an even larger victory in the 2022 cycle, where Bean secured **60.5%** to **39.5%**, for a 21.0-point margin [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2022). The district encompasses Nassau, Clay, and parts of Duval County, reflecting the voting dynamics typical of Northeast Florida's suburban and exurban areas, as well as the greater Jacksonville region [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida%27s_4th_congressional_district).

The district's demographics significantly contribute to its Republican voting trends. The demographic profile of FL-4 consistently supports its Republican lean. Data from Census Reporter and Data USA reveal a predominantly White population, with Black and Hispanic populations having smaller shares than the White population [[^]](https://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US1204-congressional-district-4-fl/)[[^]](https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-4-fl). Additionally, the district exhibits high rates of educational attainment, including both high school graduate and bachelor's degree levels [[^]](https://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US1204-congressional-district-4-fl/).

## What potential local or national catalysts could realistically shift voter sentiment enough to overcome the large Republican advantage in FL-04 by November 2026?

National generic-ballot environment for seat flips | D+5 or better (USPollingData) [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/house-2026-florida-competitive/) |
FL-04 baseline district leaning | R+5 (USPollingData) [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/house-2026-florida-competitive/) |
Current FL-04 House winner odds (Republican) | 81% (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-04-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-04-house-election-winner) |

**Overcoming FL-04's Republican advantage requires significant external shifts**

Overcoming FL-04's Republican advantage requires significant external shifts. To realistically shift voter sentiment and overcome the Republican advantage in FL-04 by November 2026, potential catalysts include a strong national wave environment, significant shifts among independent voters in Northeast Florida, or changes to the district's boundaries through litigation [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790357-poll-democrats-gaining-ground-key-races-tighten-in-florida-as-donald-trump-drags-gop/), [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790252-analysis-shows-aggressive-republican-redistricting-in-florida-would-put-more-gop-seats-at-risk/). These factors would need to be powerful enough to move the race from its current 'Solid/Safe' Republican expectation. Redistricting and legal map changes are plausible, as Florida’s congressional map litigation could alter district boundaries and voter mixes, potentially adding swing voters and increasing GOP vulnerability [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790252-analysis-shows-aggressive-republican-redistricting-in-florida-would-put-more-gop-seats-at-risk/). Furthermore, a national catalyst like election-administration or electoral-integrity controversy could emerge, with a May 2026 report tying a “Florida political risk premium” spike to lawsuits challenging Florida’s 2026 congressional map [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/florida-political-risk-premium-spikes-lawsuit-targets-desantis-map-2605/).

A substantial national Democratic environment and independent voter swing are crucial. A shift in the national or Florida-wide environment, particularly among independent (no-party) voters, is a key mechanism. One poll reports Democrats holding a narrow generic-congressional edge and independents breaking away toward Democrats [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790357-poll-democrats-gaining-ground-key-races-tighten-in-florida-as-donald-trump-drags-gop/). Such an independent swing would need to be replicated in Northeast Florida to materially narrow the margin [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790357-poll-democrats-gaining-ground-key-races-tighten-in-florida-as-donald-trump-drags-gop/). USPollingData argues that a national generic-ballot environment of roughly “D+5 or better” can tip seats, and issue-driven turnout, such as abortion ballot initiatives, could amplify mobilization. This combined national wave plus issue-driven mobilization would be necessary to overcome FL-04’s baseline R+5-leaning structure [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/house-2026-florida-competitive/). While candidate-quality and controversy effects are noted, they are likely only impactful if unusually strong and represent a late-breaking narrative that flips soft voters or suppresses turnout, which is generally insufficient by itself given the district’s Solid/Safe-R expectations and current Polymarket odds of about **81%** Republican versus **17%** Democratic [[^]](https://flapol.com/4pKOIyH), [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/539316-aaron-bean-demands-probe-of-opponents-false-advertising/), [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/710513-aaron-bean-leads-congressional-probe-into-critical-race-theory-transgender-ideology/), [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-04-house-election-winner), [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-04-house-election-winner).

## How did Rep. Aaron Bean's 2024 margin of victory compare to other Republican incumbents in Florida districts with a similar Partisan Voter Index (PVI)?

Rep. Aaron Bean Margin | 14.6 points [[^]](https://ppe.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-us-house-district-4-results)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index) |
FL-4 Cook PVI | R+5 [[^]](https://ppe.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-us-house-district-4-results)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index) |
Rep. Cory Mills Margin (FL-7) | 13.06 points [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Florida)[[^]](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-house-results) |

**Aaron Bean achieved a significant victory in Florida's 4th District**

Aaron Bean achieved a significant victory in Florida's 4th District. Rep. Aaron Bean secured a 14.6-point margin of victory in Florida’s 4th District in 2024, obtaining **57.3%** of the vote compared to **42.7%** for his opponent [[^]](https://ppe.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-us-house-district-4-results). This district is characterized by a Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+5 [[^]](https://ppe.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-us-house-district-4-results)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index).

Bean's margin surpassed other Republican incumbents in similar districts. Aaron Bean's 14.6-point margin in FL-4 exceeded the margins of other Republican incumbents in Florida whose districts also have an R+5 Cook PVI [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Florida)[[^]](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-house-results). For example, Cory Mills in FL-7 won by 13.06 points, while Anna Paulina Luna in FL-13 and Laurel Lee in FL-15 both won by 9.65 points in 2024 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Florida)[[^]](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-house-results).

## Is any district-level polling available for Florida's 4th District for the 2026 cycle, and if not, what do statewide trends imply for this R+5 seat?

FL-4 Cook PVI | R+5 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District) |
FL-4 Republican Win Probability (Prediction Market) | 81% [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-04-house-election-winner) |
Statewide Congressional Preference | Near parity [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791953-poll-less-than-half-of-floridians-want-to-vote-for-gop-congressional-candidates/)[[^]](https://news.wfsu.org/state-news/2026-04-16/a-new-poll-suggests-florida-could-be-politically-competitive-in-2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) |

**Florida's 4th District lacks specific polling, but statewide trends show competitiveness**

Florida's 4th District lacks specific polling, but statewide trends show competitiveness. As of April 2026, no district-specific polling was available for Florida's 4th Congressional District; polling data is limited to statewide or generic congressional preference [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791953-poll-less-than-half-of-floridians-want-to-vote-for-gop-congressional-candidates/)[[^]](https://news.wfsu.org/state-news/2026-04-16/a-new-poll-suggests-florida-could-be-politically-competitive-in-2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Statewide polling suggests congressional preference is near parity, indicating Florida could be a politically competitive state in 2026 [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791953-poll-less-than-half-of-floridians-want-to-vote-for-gop-congressional-candidates/)[[^]](https://news.wfsu.org/state-news/2026-04-16/a-new-poll-suggests-florida-could-be-politically-competitive-in-2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026).

Despite statewide competitiveness, FL-4's R+5 lean favors a Republican victory. Florida’s 4th Congressional District holds a Cook PVI of R+5 relative to the national presidential average [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District). While statewide polling indicates less than half of Floridians support GOP congressional candidates, a prediction-**market** summary source reports FL-4 is priced for a Republican general-election win at approximately **81%** [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-04-house-election-winner). This suggests an R+5 seat is considered likely Republican, even amidst a tightening political landscape statewide [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/fl-04-house-election-winner). Furthermore, the Kalshi 'Florida’s 4th District margin of victory' **market** details outcome sensitivity not just to the winner, but also to the degree of victory, with thresholds such as a Democrat winning by 3+ points or a Republican winning by 9+ points [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kxmidtermmov-fl04d)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kxmidtermmov-fl04r).

## What does the fundraising history of past Democratic challengers in FL-04 suggest about the financial resources a 2026 candidate could realistically raise against Aaron Bean?

Aaron Bean Total Fundraising | Over $1.5 million (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791126-bean-kirwan-cd4-fundraising/) |
Kirwan Total Fundraising | Over $500,000 (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791126-bean-kirwan-cd4-fundraising/) |
District Political Lean | Solid R [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/4)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)) |

**Democratic challenger Kirwan has demonstrated significant fundraising, surpassing previous efforts**

Democratic challenger Kirwan has demonstrated significant fundraising, surpassing previous efforts. As of March 31, 2026, Kirwan accumulated over **$500,000** throughout his campaign, with nearly **$150,000** raised in the first quarter of 2026, primarily from individual donors [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791126-bean-kirwan-cd4-fundraising/). This has resulted in more than **$225,000** cash on hand [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791126-bean-kirwan-cd4-fundraising/). Kirwan's fundraising levels exceed those of previous Democratic challengers such as LaShonda Holloway, who was described as a "grassroots candidate," and current 2026 primary opponents like Brit Robinson and Ricky Knoles, who have raised considerably less [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791126-bean-kirwan-cd4-fundraising/)[[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/761274-aaron-bean-nears-1m-cash-on-hand-for-re-election/).

Incumbent Aaron Bean maintains a substantial financial advantage and strong district support. As of March 31, 2026, Bean had raised over **$1.5** million, holding nearly **$1.25** million in cash on hand [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791126-bean-kirwan-cd4-fundraising/). His first-quarter 2026 fundraising alone exceeded **$240,000,** with a significant portion derived from PACs, establishing a 3-to-1 fundraising lead over Kirwan [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791126-bean-kirwan-cd4-fundraising/). This financial disparity, combined with the district's "Solid R" rating and Bean's consistent electoral victories—such as securing **57.39%** of the vote in 2024—presents a challenging environment for any Democratic candidate [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791126-bean-kirwan-cd4-fundraising/)[[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/705817-aaron-bean-retains-cd-4-seat-again-staves-off-lashonda-holloway/)[[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/4)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The current market for the FL-04 House Election Winner prices Republicans at approximately 81% and Democrats at about 17%, implying a very bullish stance toward Democrats winning the seat [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-04-house-election-winner).** Kalshi provides FL-04 midterm “margin of victory” contracts with explicit resolution thresholds tied to winning by at least certain percentage-point margins, which express the size of the win [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-fl04d)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kxmidtermmov-fl04r). Shifts in these probabilities or the actual outcomes relative to these margins will serve as key catalysts for **market** movements.

**Definitive electoral events for the FL-04 district in 2026 are critical catalysts.** The primary election is scheduled for Aug 18, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Florida’s mandatory early voting is from Oct 24–31, 2026 [[^]](https://dos.fl.gov/elections/for-voters/election-dates/). The general election is set for Nov 3, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://dos.fl.gov/elections/for-voters/election-dates/). These dates represent significant milestones that are expected to influence **market** probabilities as results and voter turnout data emerge.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The current **market** for the FL-04 House Election Winner prices Republicans at approximately **81%** and Democrats at about **17%**, implying a very bullish stance toward Democrats winning the seat [^] .
- Kalshi provides FL-04 midterm “margin of victory” contracts with explicit resolution thresholds tied to winning by at least certain percentage-point margins, which express the size of the win [^] [^] .
- Shifts in these probabilities or the actual outcomes relative to these margins will serve as key catalysts for **market** movements.
- Definitive electoral events for the FL-04 district in 2026 are critical catalysts.

## Related Research Reports

- [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/)
- [Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/)
- [Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/)
- [Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee?](/markets/elections/primaries/georgia-democratic-attorney-general-nominee/)

## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/elections/florida-s-4th-district-margin-of-victory
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.