# Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

On Aug 18, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/florida-republican-governor-primary-2nd-place/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect James Fishback to take 2nd place in the Florida Republican governor primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Byron Donalds' strong Q1 2026 fundraising and endorsements suggest 1st place viability.** - Paul Renner's Q1 2026 fundraising supports his plausible bid for 2nd place.
- Jay Collins' initial Q1 fundraising came mostly from a single large donor.
- Other candidates lack comparable fundraising, endorsements, or established campaign viability.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees Paul Renner's 2nd place chance at **24.9%** versus 19c **market** price, implying a 5.3x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jay Collins | 19.0% | 24.9% | Jay Collins' strong Q1 2026 fundraising of nearly $1.75 million demonstrates financial viability, positioning him competitively. |
| James Fishback | 50.0% | 58.8% | James Fishback is a strong contender, indicating a competitive campaign and ability to secure voter support. |
| Casey DeSantis | 4.0% | 4.7% | Casey DeSantis has not announced a candidacy or campaign activity, indicating a low likelihood of securing 2nd place. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Jay Collins | 19.0% | 24.9% |
| James Fishback | 50.0% | 58.8% |
| Casey DeSantis | 4.0% | 4.7% |
| Paul Renner | 2.0% | 3.6% |
| Byron Donalds | 10.0% | 8.0% |

- Expiration: August 18, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market, which predicts the second-place finisher in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, has experienced extreme volatility since its inception. The overall trend is upward, moving from a starting price of 1.0% to its current level of 19.0%. However, this trend is defined by a massive price spike on April 15, when the probability jumped 35 percentage points from 1.0% to 36.0% in a single day. This was followed by a peak at 38.0% before a significant correction occurred, including a 9.0 point drop on April 25. The chart does not provide specific news or external events to explain this sudden, dramatic re-evaluation by traders.

The price action suggests a highly speculative and reactive market. The initial peak around 38.0% has established a clear resistance level that the market has since pulled back from. The current price of 19.0% may be forming a new support area after the recent decline. The total volume of 2,758 contracts indicates a moderate level of interest, but the sample data points show zero volume on days with significant price changes. This pattern could suggest that the volatility is driven by a small number of influential trades rather than broad market participation, indicating a low level of conviction behind the price movements.

Overall market sentiment shifted dramatically in mid-April, pricing in a substantial probability for a specific outcome after previously considering it a near-impossibility. The subsequent decline from the peak suggests that the initial optimism has been tempered, and the market is now attempting to find a stable price point. The sentiment remains uncertain, having corrected significantly from its high but still trading far above its starting level. The market is pricing in a roughly one-in-five chance for this outcome, reflecting a notable but still tentative belief.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Casey DeSantis

#### 📉 April 28, 2026: 45.0pp drop

Price decreased from 49.0% to 4.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Jay Collins

#### 📉 April 25, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 32.0% to 23.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: James Fishback

#### 📈 April 15, 2026: 46.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 47.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if James Fishback finishes 2nd in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, as verified by certified results from the Florida Department of State. A NO resolution occurs if he does not, if a write-in candidate achieves 2nd place (unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists), or if the election is cancelled or postponed past August 18, 2027. In the event of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally based on the number of tied entities.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Byron Donalds | 10% | 15% | 10% | $167.2 | $166.2 |
| Casey DeSantis | 8% | 10% | 4% | $384.73 | $305.79 |
| Jay Collins | 18% | 19% | 19% | $2,758.77 | $2,490.19 |
| James Fishback | 49% | 50% | 50% | $1,136.23 | $1,034.24 |
| Paul Renner | 4% | 5% | 2% | $300.28 | $225.28 |

## What Were Non-DeSantis Candidate Donations Through Q4 2025?

Jay Collins Q1 2026 Fundraising | Nearly $1.75 million [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790143-collins-first-fundraising-report/) |
Byron Donalds Q1 2026 Fundraising | Record $22 million [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/788293-byron-donalds-posts-record-22m-quarter-to-kick-off-2026-governors-race/) |
Paul Renner Q1 2026 Fundraising | Roughly $800,000 [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790148-renner-fundraising-falls-off/) |

**Specific donor data for 2025 is currently unavailable**

Specific donor data for 2025 is currently unavailable. The research could not identify the non-DeSantis candidate receiving the highest average donation from individuals who contributed over **$1,000** to Ron DeSantis's 2022 gubernatorial campaign, based on Florida Division of Elections reports filed through Q4 2025 [[^]](https://dos.fl.gov/elections/candidates-committees/campaign-finance/campaign-finance-database/). The provided sources primarily detail candidate fundraising activities for Q1 2026, falling outside the specified Q4 2025 filing period.

First-quarter 2026 fundraising shows varying results for other candidates. Although the requested Q4 2025 data is absent, the research highlights Q1 2026 fundraising activities. Jay Collins raised nearly **$1.75** million in his first quarter, with a single donor contributing over **$875,000,** which accounts for more than half of that total [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790143-collins-first-fundraising-report/). Byron Donalds reported a record **$22** million quarter for 2026, leading overall fundraising for that period [[^]](https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/state/2026/04/13/byron-donalds-leads-florida-governor-race-fundraising/89597901007/). Additionally, Paul Renner raised approximately **$800,000** in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790148-renner-fundraising-falls-off/).

## How Many Public Endorsements Do Byron Donalds And Paul Renner Have?

Total Endorsements for Byron Donalds | 19 [[^]](https://byrondonalds.com/endorsements/) |
Donalds' Congressional Endorsements | 16 [[^]](https://byrondonalds.com/endorsements/) |
Public Endorsements for Paul Renner | 0 [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/730984-seven-more-florida-congressional-colleagues-endorse-byron-donalds-for-governor/) |

**Byron Donalds has publicly secured a total of 19 endorsements from specified groups**

Byron Donalds has publicly secured a total of 19 endorsements from specified groups. This total includes 16 endorsements from members of Florida's 2022-2024 Republican congressional delegation and 3 from elected Republican members of the Florida Cabinet [[^]](https://byrondonalds.com/endorsements/). The congressional endorsers comprise U.S. Reps. Gus Bilirakis, Daniel Webster, Laurel Lee, Michael Waltz, Neal Dunn, Cory Mills, Anna Paulina Luna, Bill Posey, Aaron Bean, John Rutherford, Carlos Giménez, Scott Franklin, Greg Steube, Vern Buchanan, Brian Mast, and Mario Díaz-Balart. Among the Florida Cabinet members who have endorsed Donalds are Attorney General Ashley Moody, Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, and former Commissioner of Agriculture Wilton Simpson [[^]](https://byrondonalds.com/endorsements/). Some endorsement mentions for Donalds reach April 2025 in certain sources, with current listings also on his campaign website [[^]](https://floridianpress.com/2025/04/byron-donalds-racking-up-endorsements-for-florida-governor/).

Paul Renner currently lacks documented public endorsements from the specified groups. The provided web research results do not contain any information regarding public endorsements for Paul Renner from either Florida's 2022-2024 Republican congressional delegation or the elected Republican members of the Florida Cabinet [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/730984-seven-more-florida-congressional-colleagues-endorse-byron-donalds-for-governor/). Therefore, based solely on the current information presented, Byron Donalds has documented endorsements from the specified groups, whereas no such endorsements for Paul Renner are detailed.

## Which Candidates Appeared on Fox News, Newsmax Primetime (Jan-May 2026)?

Direct Primetime Appearances | No direct data for any candidate (Jan-May 2026) [[^]](http://www1.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2026/governor/fl/2026_florida_governor_republican_primary-8747.html) |
Byron Donalds Fox-Affiliated Media | Featured on "Fox Across America" Jan 12, 2026 [[^]](https://radio.foxnews.com/2026/01/12/donalds-responds-to-shocking-attack-by-florida-gop-gubernatorial-opponent-racism-has-no-place-in-the-republican-party/) |
Byron Donalds Newsmax Coverage | Newsmax.com published article Dec 1, 2025 [[^]](https://www.newsmax.com/Politics/byron-donalds-florida-ron-desantis/2025/12/01/id/1236653/) |

**Direct monitoring data for primetime appearances is currently unavailable**

Direct monitoring data for primetime appearances is currently unavailable. Research did not identify direct data from TV monitoring services confirming specific guest appearances on the primetime shows (7 PM - 11 PM ET) of Fox News Channel and Newsmax for any candidate between January 1, 2026, and May 31, 2026. The available sources primarily consist of polling data, news articles, and local media mentions, rather than a log of national primetime television appearances.

Byron Donalds shows notable engagement with relevant media platforms. Donalds is highlighted as a prominent candidate in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2026-poll-donalds-leads-gop-primary-for-governor-republicans-outpace-democrats-in-florida-elections/). His engagement includes Fox-affiliated and Newsmax media platforms immediately preceding or within the specified timeframe. For instance, Donalds was featured on "Fox Across America," a Fox-affiliated radio program, on January 12, 2026 [[^]](https://radio.foxnews.com/2026/01/12/donalds-responds-to-shocking-attack-by-florida-gop-gubernatorial-opponent-racism-has-no-place-in-the-republican-party/). Additionally, Newsmax.com published an article on December 1, 2025, discussing Representative Donalds potentially facing a tough primary, suggesting the network's interest in his profile leading into the period [[^]](https://www.newsmax.com/Politics/byron-donalds-florida-ron-desantis/2025/12/01/id/1236653/).

Other candidates lack similar national media mentions. While other candidates, such as Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and Paul Renner, are mentioned in polling and local news contexts [[^]](https://www.wogx.com/news/florida-lt-gov-jay-collins-enters-governors-race-setting-up-crowded-gop-primary), the provided sources do not include specific mentions of their guest appearances or detailed coverage on the national Fox News Channel or Newsmax networks during relevant primetime hours. Therefore, based on the available information, Donalds exhibits the most visibility within these specific media ecosystems, despite the absence of direct evidence for primetime TV appearances for any candidate [[^]](https://radio.foxnews.com/2026/01/12/donalds-responds-to-shocking-attack-by-florida-gop-gubernatorial-opponent-racism-has-no-place-in-the-republican-party/).

## How Do Renner and Donalds Compare in Q1 2026 Local Donations?

Donalds' Local Donation % | 35% (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/state/2026/04/13/byron-donalds-leads-florida-governor-race-fundraising/89597901007/) |
Renner's Local Donation % | 15% (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://miamiselect.com/paul-renner-fundraising-falls-off-with-roughly-800k-raised-to-kick-off-2026-as-burn-rate-escalates/) |
Donalds' Total Q1 2026 Raised | $22 million [[^]](https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/state/2026/04/13/byron-donalds-leads-florida-governor-race-fundraising/89597901007/) |

**Byron Donalds received significant Q1 2026 individual donations from his core media market**

Byron Donalds received significant Q1 2026 individual donations from his core media **market**. His gubernatorial campaign committee and political committee collectively raised a total of **$22** million in the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/state/2026/04/13/byron-donalds-leads-florida-governor-race-fundraising/89597901007/). Of this amount, approximately **$7.7** million came from individual donors residing within Collier and Lee counties, which are the core counties of the Ft. Myers-Naples DMA [[^]](https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/state/2026/04/13/byron-donalds-leads-florida-governor-race-fundraising/89597901007/). This means **35%** of Donalds' total Q1 2026 individual donations originated from his primary media **market** [[^]](https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/state/2026/04/13/byron-donalds-leads-florida-governor-race-fundraising/89597901007/).

Paul Renner attracted fewer individual donations from his primary media **market**. Renner's campaign raised roughly **$800,000** during the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://miamiselect.com/paul-renner-fundraising-falls-off-with-roughly-800k-raised-to-kick-off-2026-as-burn-rate-escalates/). From this total, **$120,000** was sourced from individual donors in Duval, St. Johns, and Clay counties, which constitute the primary counties of the Jacksonville DMA [[^]](https://miamiselect.com/paul-renner-fundraising-falls-off-with-roughly-800k-raised-to-kick-off-2026-as-burn-rate-escalates/). As a result, **15%** of Renner's total Q1 2026 individual donations were from within his core media **market** [[^]](https://miamiselect.com/paul-renner-fundraising-falls-off-with-roughly-800k-raised-to-kick-off-2026-as-burn-rate-escalates/).

Paul Renner shows a lower percentage of local individual donations. Compared to Byron Donalds, who received **35%** of his total Q1 2026 individual donations from his primary media **market**, Paul Renner demonstrates a significantly lower percentage of **15%** from counties within his core media **market** [[^]](https://miamiselect.com/paul-renner-fundraising-falls-off-with-roughly-800k-raised-to-kick-off-2026-as-burn-rate-escalates/).

## Do Florida Republican Gubernatorial Campaigns Share Key Staff or Firms?

Shared Campaign Staff/Firms | None identified (public disclosures as of June 1, 2026) [[^]](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article315399521.html) |
Paul Renner Key Staff | Heath Rygelski (campaign manager), Sarah Rumpf (communications director), Ryan Tyson (lead consultant/pollster) [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/761059-paul-renner-taps-veterans-to-help-his-campaign-for-governor/) |
Byron Donalds Fundraising (Mid-Apr 2026) | $10.7 million [[^]](https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/state/2026/04/13/byron-donalds-leads-florida-governor-race-fundraising/89597901007/) |

**Public disclosures show no shared staff among the campaigns by June 2026**

Public disclosures show no shared staff among the campaigns by June 2026. As of June 1, 2026, public disclosures do not identify any shared key campaign staff or primary political consulting firms among the campaigns of Donalds, Renner, Collins, or Fishback. The available information explicitly names key staff and a lead consultant only for the Paul Renner campaign. Specifically, Heath Rygelski is identified as Renner's campaign manager, Sarah Rumpf as communications director, and Ryan Tyson as a lead consultant and pollster [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/761059-paul-renner-taps-veterans-to-help-his-campaign-for-governor/). Renner’s campaign also demonstrated strong fundraising, securing nearly **$5.5** million in its initial four months and approximately **$800,000** to commence 2026 [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/772569-paul-renner-raises-nearly-5-5-million-in-first-four-months-as-candidate-for-governor/), though these fundraising details do not indicate any shared personnel or consulting firms with other campaigns.

Donalds' fundraising success is noted, but staff information is absent. Information for Byron Donalds primarily focuses on his fundraising, with over **$10** million raised by early April 2026, escalating to **$10.7** million by mid-April 2026 [[^]](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article315399521.html). Crucially, the sources do not provide details on Donalds' key campaign staff or primary political consulting firms. Similarly, no such details are provided for the campaigns of Jay Collins or James Fishback [[^]](https://jayforflorida.com/). While Brett Doster is noted as a Republican political consultant, the provided research does not link him to any of the Donalds, Renner, Collins, or Fishback campaigns [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Brett_Doster).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** August 18, 2027
- **Closes:** August 18, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.