# Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

For the 2028 election

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: 2028
US Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Ted Cruz to run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Donald Trump accumulated substantial financial reserves for future political endeavors.** - Potential 2028 GOP candidates made minimal trips to Iowa since 2025.
- J.D. Vance gained significant earned media post-2024 on conservative platforms.
- Kristi Noem hired Corey Lewandowski, a key figure from Trump's 2016 campaign.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 76c, **market** prices higher than the **68.6%** **model** estimate, implying overvaluation despite Trump's significant financial reserves.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 33.0% | 20.4% | Her name is frequently discussed for higher office, and she cultivates a strong, vocal base. |
| Marco Rubio | 65.0% | 54.8% | A prominent senator with past presidential campaign experience, he remains influential in the party. |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 23.0% | 12.2% | He maintains a high public profile and strong connections within the Republican base. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 33.0% | 20.4% |
| Marco Rubio | 65.0% | 54.8% |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 23.0% | 12.2% |
| Tucker Carlson | 53.0% | 40.7% |
| J.D. Vance | 76.0% | 68.6% |
| Ron DeSantis | 66.0% | 56.0% |
| Ted Cruz | 80.0% | 73.7% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 24.0% | 13.0% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 24.0% | 13.0% |
| Donald J. Trump | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Greg Abbott | 23.0% | 12.2% |
| Josh Hawley | 47.0% | 34.1% |
| Steve Bannon | 28.0% | 16.1% |
| Rand Paul | 42.0% | 28.9% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 26.0% | 14.5% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 38.0% | 25.0% |
| Pete Hegseth | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Nikki Haley | 35.0% | 22.2% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 21.0% | 10.8% |
| Erika Kirk | 19.0% | 9.4% |
| Thomas Massie | 24.0% | 13.0% |
| Elon Musk | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| Matt Gaetz | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Elise Stefanik | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Brian Kemp | 38.0% | 25.0% |
| Jared Kushner | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| John Thune | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Katie Britt | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Byron Donalds | 20.0% | 10.1% |

- Expiration: January 1, 2028

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, this market shows a modest but consistent downward trend in the perceived probability of this individual running for the 2028 Republican nomination. The market opened with a high degree of confidence at 81.0%, which appears to be a key resistance level. Since then, the price has drifted downwards, currently trading at 76.0% after finding a potential support level near the low of 74.0%. The most notable movement was a five-point drop from 81.0% to 76.0% over a two-week period in late April 2026.

Without additional external context on news or developments, the specific catalysts for this price decline cannot be determined from the chart data alone. An analysis of the trading volume shows a significant portion of activity occurred at the market's opening, with 578 contracts traded on the first day. The subsequent price drop occurred on very low or zero volume, which suggests the decline may not be driven by a strong wave of new selling pressure. Instead, it could reflect a gradual cooling of initial enthusiasm or price adjustments in an illiquid market, rather than a reaction to a specific negative event.

Overall, the market sentiment remains strongly positive, with a 76.0% probability indicating a high expectation that this individual will run. However, the downward trend from the 81.0% peak suggests that the initial, near-certain conviction has softened slightly among traders. The tight trading range between 74.0% and 81.0% indicates that while confidence has eroded, there has not been a fundamental collapse in the market's belief. The current price reflects a shift from overwhelming certainty to a more tempered, albeit still very high, probability.

## Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if Josh Hawley publicly announces a presidential campaign for the 2028 Republican nomination before January 1, 2028; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes by January 1, 2028, at 10:00 AM EST, or earlier if the event occurs. Resolution relies on reports from specified news organizations including The New York Times, Associated Press, Reuters, and CNN, and employees of these source agencies are prohibited from trading.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Byron Donalds | 17% | 21% | 20% | $132 | $116 |
| Brian Kemp | 32% | 38% | 38% | $574.85 | $257.02 |
| Donald J. Trump | 13% | 14% | 14% | $8,395.76 | $3,025.76 |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 22% | 25% | 23% | $28,164.34 | $11,979.01 |
| Erika Kirk | 17% | 19% | 19% | $3,913.02 | $1,718.75 |
| Elon Musk | 1.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | $3,170 | $1,982.98 |
| Elise Stefanik | 9.1% | 10% | 8% | $762 | $558 |
| Greg Abbott | 19% | 22% | 23% | $6,609.9 | $708.27 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 35% | 42% | 38% | $5,478.48 | $3,878.47 |
| Josh Hawley | 44% | 47% | 47% | $6,461.26 | $4,667.26 |
| Jared Kushner | 7.1% | 14% | 14% | $533.71 | $289 |
| John Thune | 1.7% | 8% | 2% | $381 | $257 |
| J.D. Vance | 76% | 81% | 76% | $19,721.9 | $11,731 |
| Katie Britt | 6.9% | 12% | 9% | $151 | $123 |
| Matt Gaetz | 20% | 22% | 20% | $1,044.08 | $983 |
| Marco Rubio | 62% | 65% | 65% | $28,949.08 | $11,248.46 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 27% | 33% | 33% | $34,176.47 | $4,066.49 |
| Nikki Haley | 34% | 35% | 35% | $4,722.64 | $2,620.32 |
| Pete Hegseth | 16% | 20% | 20% | $4,915.35 | $3,179 |
| Ron DeSantis | 62% | 64% | 66% | $17,272.86 | $10,497.73 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 22% | 24% | 24% | $8,662.58 | $2,151.56 |
| Rand Paul | 39% | 42% | 42% | $5,954.16 | $5,670.16 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 20% | 21% | 21% | $3,950 | $819 |
| Steve Bannon | 28% | 30% | 28% | $6,359.11 | $3,899.77 |
| Ted Cruz | 80% | 84% | 80% | $13,853.85 | $5,767 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 26% | 27% | 26% | $5,654.94 | $2,013.92 |
| Thomas Massie | 26% | 29% | 24% | $3,445 | $1,540 |
| Tucker Carlson | 52% | 59% | 53% | $20,671.37 | $12,644.94 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 24% | 25% | 24% | $10,252.92 | $3,186.57 |

## What Preparations Has Trump Made for a 2028 Presidential Bid?

Initial Fundraising (post-Nov 2024) | $300 million [[^]](https://dev.abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-300-million-campaign-war-chest-midterms-2028/story?id=131554269) |
Fundraising by Early 2026 | $483 million [[^]](https://inquirer.com/politics/nation/trump-war-chest-midterm-elections-20260202.html) |
January 2025 War Chest Target | $500 million [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2025/01/15/trump-windfall-fundraising-500-million) |

**Donald Trump has amassed a substantial financial reserve for future political endeavors**

Donald Trump has amassed a substantial financial reserve for future political endeavors. Since November 2024, reports indicate a significant accumulation of funds, with **$300** million initially designated for the midterms and a potential 2028 presidential bid [[^]](https://dev.abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-300-million-campaign-war-chest-midterms-2028/story?id=131554269). This figure increased to **$483** million to bolster midterm chances by early 2026 [[^]](https://inquirer.com/politics/nation/trump-war-chest-midterm-elections-20260202.html), with an aspiration for a **$500** million war chest in a post-election windfall by January 2025 [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2025/01/15/trump-windfall-fundraising-500-million). These funds are managed through entities such as the TRUMP NATIONAL COMMITTEE JFC, INC. [[^]](http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00873893/1943543), representing a broad preparatory measure for various future political engagements.

Specific organizational steps for a 2028 campaign are not detailed in available research. While a former advisor has suggested "plans" for him to seek a third term in 2028 despite legal restrictions [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/former-trump-advisor-says-plans-130500021.html), there is no information regarding the hiring of national-level campaign staff specifically for a 2028 presidential run since November 2024. Furthermore, formal commitments from top 2024 bundlers for a future 2028 bid have not been secured. Any mentioned appointments of campaign advisers generally relate to roles within the White House or transition team following the 2024 election [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidential_transition_of_Donald_Trump).

## How Many Trips Have 2028 GOP Candidates Made to Iowa?

Candidates with >2 IA/NH Trips (Since Jan 2025) | None (excluding Donald Trump) [[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/13/trump-supporter-kari-lake-returns-to-iowa-for-political-event-joni-ernst-pete-hegseth/77520482007) |
Kari Lake's Iowa Visit | January 2025 [[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/13/trump-supporter-kari-lake-returns-to-iowa-for-political-event-joni-ernst-pete-hegseth/77520482007) |
Glenn Youngkin's Iowa Visit | July 2025 [[^]](https://www.thegazette.com/campaigns-elections/virginia-gov-glenn-youngkin-at-iowa-gop-event-says-caucuses-start-the-presidential-nominating-pro/) |

**Since January 2025, no potential GOP candidate has exceeded two visits**

Since January 2025, no potential GOP candidate has exceeded two visits. No potential Republican candidate for the 2028 presidential nomination (excluding Donald Trump) has explicitly been reported to have made more than two trips to Iowa or New Hampshire for state party events, fundraising, or meetings with political activists since January 2025. While these individuals are recognized as potential contenders for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/07/gop-possible-contenders-2028), the current research indicates each mentioned candidate has, however, made at least one trip to Iowa within this timeframe.

Specific candidates have each made one notable trip to Iowa. Kari Lake returned to Iowa in January 2025 to headline a MAGA event [[^]](https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/13/trump-supporter-kari-lake-returns-to-iowa-for-political-event-joni-ernst-pete-hegseth/77520482007). Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin visited Iowa in July 2025, attending a GOP event, praising the state's first-in-the-nation caucuses, and participating in a GOP fundraiser [[^]](https://www.thegazette.com/campaigns-elections/virginia-gov-glenn-youngkin-at-iowa-gop-event-says-caucuses-start-the-presidential-nominating-pro/). Additionally, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders keynoted a Family Leader event in Iowa in July 2025, discussing her connections to the state and her legacy with the previous administration [[^]](https://eu.press-citizen.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/11/sarah-huckabee-sanders-keynotes-family-leader-event-recalls-iowa-ties/84492648007/). The provided sources confirm only a single trip to Iowa for each candidate since January 2025, consistent with not exceeding the threshold of more than two trips.

## Which Potential 2028 Republican Nominees Gained Post-2024 Media Attention?

J.D. Vance Media Presence | Discussed relationship with Trump on Fox News (May 2025) [[^]](https://www.foxnews.com/video/6385067004112) |
Marco Rubio Political Relevance | Explored as a Trump 'influencer' in Semafor (March 2025) [[^]](https://www.semafor.com/article/03/06/2025/rubios-reckoning-is-he-a-trump-influencer-or-follower) |
Paid Social Media Ad Spending | No specific data found in research [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-republican-primary-draft). |

**J.D**

J.D. Vance shows increased earned media on key conservative platforms. Post-2024 election, Vance demonstrated a significant increase in appearances on conservative media outlets. For instance, a May 2025 Fox News video featured him discussing lessons learned from Donald Trump and praising Trump's attributes, indicating a prominent presence on a major conservative news outlet [[^]](https://www.foxnews.com/video/6385067004112). A related YouTube video further highlighted Vance's insights into Trump, suggesting a deliberate strategy to appeal to the former president's base [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPn9CYENbsE). Vance is also consistently identified as a strong contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination across various prediction markets and analyses [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-republican-primary-draft).

Marco Rubio's positioning also garners significant conservative media attention. His post-2024 political role is actively discussed in a manner that would attract conservative media. A March 2025 Semafor article explored Rubio's potential role as a 'Trump ‘influencer’ or follower,' underscoring his continued relevance within the Republican party's Trump-centric landscape and his appeal to conservative audiences [[^]](https://www.semafor.com/article/03/06/2025/rubios-reckoning-is-he-a-trump-influencer-or-follower). Like Vance, Rubio is frequently listed among potential 2028 Republican presidential nominees in various prediction markets and analyses, signaling his ongoing consideration by political observers [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-republican-primary-draft).

Specific data on increased paid social media ad spending is unavailable. The provided web research does not contain specific data or statistics regarding increased paid social media ad spending for any potential candidates post-2024 election. The available sources primarily focus on prognostications for the 2028 nomination and earned media appearances, rather than detailed advertising expenditure figures.

## Who Are Key Campaign Hires for Potential 2028 Candidates?

Noem's Strategic Hire | Corey Lewandowski [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corey_Lewandowski) |
Lewandowski's Prior Role | Campaign Manager for Trump's 2016 campaign [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corey_Lewandowski) |
DeSantis PAC Recruitment | Senior team members from 2016 Trump and 2022 Youngkin campaigns [[^]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/03/28/desantis-pac-team/) |

**Kristi Noem, a potential 2028 Republican presidential candidate, hired Corey Lewandowski from Trump’s 2016 campaign**

Kristi Noem, a potential 2028 Republican presidential candidate, hired Corey Lewandowski from Trump’s 2016 campaign. Noem appointed Lewandowski as a special government employee within Homeland Security [[^]](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14387291/homeland-security-chief-krist-noem-hires-corey-lewandowski-government-employee.html). Lewandowski previously served as the campaign manager for Donald Trump's successful 2016 presidential campaign [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corey_Lewandowski), and his new role under Noem reportedly granted him access to sensitive national information [[^]](https://www.thedailybeast.com/kristi-noems-alleged-lover-corey-lewandowski-got-access-to-nations-deepest-secrets/).

A Pro-DeSantis PAC hired senior operatives from successful campaigns. A Political Action Committee (PAC) supporting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, also a potential 2028 presidential contender, has recruited experienced political operatives. This pro-DeSantis PAC brought on senior team members who previously worked on the victorious 2016 Trump and 2022 Youngkin campaigns, indicating a strategic effort to leverage seasoned political talent [[^]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/03/28/desantis-pac-team/).

## Who Will File First for 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination Post-2026 Midterms?

2026 Midterm Election Date | November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/calendar/) |
Post-Election 90-Day End | February 1, 2027 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf) |
2028 GOP Nomination Filings | Specific candidates not predicted in research [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf) |

**Specific predictions for 2028 presidential campaign filings are not available**

Specific predictions for 2028 presidential campaign filings are not available. The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/calendar/), with the subsequent 90-day period concluding on February 1, 2027. However, the provided research does not contain specific predictions about which potential candidates will be the first to file paperwork for a Presidential Exploratory Committee or significantly expand their Leadership PAC staffing for national operations during this precise future timeframe for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf).

Candidates often take early steps like forming exploratory committees. Candidates who intend to seek the presidency commonly begin taking steps such as establishing exploratory committees or bolstering existing political action committees (PACs) well in advance of an election [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf). An exploratory committee enables a potential candidate to "test the waters" for a presidential run, allowing them to raise and spend funds to determine campaign feasibility without an official declaration of candidacy, although certain activities or fundraising thresholds may trigger official candidate status requirements [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf). Similarly, a Leadership PAC can serve as a vehicle for a politician to raise funds, support other candidates, build a national network, and function as a precursor to a presidential campaign [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf).

Future candidate actions are not detailed in current research. While these preparatory activities are typical for prospective presidential candidates, the specific timing and identities of those who will initiate or significantly expand such operations immediately following the 2026 midterms are not detailed in the provided web research. Information from sources like the FEC's candidate browse tools offers current and historical filing data but does not provide future projections for individual candidates [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/president/). Therefore, based on the provided materials, it is not possible to identify the specific individuals who will be the first to take these steps for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 01, 2028
- **Closes:** January 01, 2028

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.