# How high will gas prices in Florida get this year?

In 2026

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Oil & Gas
Oil and energy

HTML: /markets/economics/oil-gas/how-high-will-gas-prices-in-florida-get-this-year/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that gas prices in Florida will rise above **$3.00** this year, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Florida gas prices surged over $4.40 in early May 2026.** - Geopolitical conflicts, including the Iran war, drive crude oil prices.
- Prediction markets and AAA forecast prices likely exceeding **$5.00** by year-end.
- Updated EIA forecasts may temper extreme bullishness for higher outcomes.
- OPEC+ production adjustment was approved, creating supply uncertainties.
- 2026 hurricane season poses risks to Gulf oil production and supply.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** (**98.8%**) trails **market** (**99.0%**) by 0.2pp, with recent recalibration tempering extreme bullishness for higher outcomes.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $4.50 | 99.0% | 98.8% | Geopolitical conflicts and strong AAA forecasts expect an overall upward shift in prices. |
| Above $4.70 | 62.0% | 59.1% | Geopolitical conflicts and strong AAA forecasts expect an overall upward shift in prices. |
| Above $5.30 | 44.0% | 42.1% | Strong AAA forecasts expect increases above $5.00, though updated EIA forecasts temper bullishness. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $4.50 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| Above $4.70 | 62.0% | 59.1% |
| Above $5.30 | 44.0% | 42.1% |
| Above $4.90 | 56.0% | 53.3% |
| Above $5.90 | 14.0% | 10.8% |
| Above $5.70 | 28.0% | 21.6% |
| Above $5.50 | 38.0% | 29.5% |
| Above $5.10 | 53.0% | 42.5% |

- Expiration: December 31, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has shown a strong and rapid upward trend, moving from a starting price of 48.0% to a current price of 99.0%. This indicates a dramatic shift from initial uncertainty to near-certainty for a "YES" resolution. The most significant price action occurred in a concentrated period in late April and early May, with consecutive spikes of 10.0, 16.0, and 10.0 percentage points. These movements suggest that new information or a re-evaluation of existing conditions caused a swift change in trader sentiment. The initial forecasts cited from GasBuddy and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which anticipated lower prices, appear to have been disregarded by the market in favor of more immediate pressures.

The primary driver for the price surge appears to be geopolitical tensions affecting the global oil supply. This contrasts with earlier expert outlooks that expected supply to outpace demand. The price action, especially the sharp increases in late April and early May, suggests traders reacted strongly to these developments. While specific volume data for the spike days is not provided, the total traded volume of 3,091 contracts indicates significant market participation. The sustained upward movement suggests that buying pressure and conviction behind the "YES" outcome grew substantially during this period.

From a technical perspective, the market broke through the initial 50% level of uncertainty and established new support levels during its rapid ascent. The price of 99.0% now acts as a ceiling, reflecting the market's maximum conviction. The chart suggests that market sentiment has coalesced around the high probability of gas prices in Florida reaching the level specified by the market. The price action represents a clear rejection of early-year forecasts in favor of a new reality dominated by supply-side concerns.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above $4.70

#### 📉 May 06, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 82.0% to 63.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 19.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market outcome "Above $4.70" on May 06, 2026, was likely a recalibration of market expectations based on traditional news reporting. On May 6, Florida's average gas price reached $4.46/gal, a significant surge attributed to Strait of Hormuz/Iran-war-related oil and gasoline futures gains [[^]](https://www.wftv.com/news/local/gas-prices-surge-overnight-florida/RYN64UV24FDLJBGJTPA24D2LEE/)[[^]](https://newsroom.acg.aaa.com/florida-gas-prices-rise-40-cents-set-new-4-year-high/)[[^]](https://newsdaytonabeach.com/stories/gas-prices-on-the-rise-again-in-florida,162523)[[^]](https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/state/2026/04/13/florida-gas-prices-could-jump-again-as-u-s-begins-blockade-of-strait/89588628007/)[[^]](https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2026/04/14/865819.htm). However, this price, while high, remained below the $4.70 threshold, potentially leading traders to reduce their probability assessment for exceeding that level, correcting from earlier inflated expectations. No social media activity was identified as a driver, making it irrelevant to this price movement.

#### 📈 May 01, 2026: 27.0pp spike

Price increased from 39.0% to 66.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price spike was traditional news and market factors concerning geopolitical tensions. "Big gains" in oil and gasoline futures, attributed by AAA to the Iranian conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure/uncertainty, likely prompted the movement [[^]](https://newsroom.acg.aaa.com/florida-gas-prices-rise-40-cents-set-new-4-year-high/). While AAA's official reports confirming a significant weekly jump in Florida gas prices were released just after the May 01, 2026 market spike, the underlying futures market activity and news of the conflict, including reports of a U.S. blockade beginning in April, appear to have led the market's expectation of prices exceeding $4.70 [[^]](https://newsroom.acg.aaa.com/florida-gas-prices-rise-40-cents-set-new-4-year-high/). Social media activity was irrelevant, as no specific influential posts or viral narratives were identified in the provided sources.

### Outcome: Above $5.10

#### 📉 May 05, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 64.0% to 49.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 15.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market was likely the updated April 2026 forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/). This forecast projected retail gasoline prices to peak at nearly $4.30 per gallon in April and average more than $3.70 per gallon for the year, significantly below the $5.10 outcome threshold [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/). As this official announcement was released in April 2026, it would have preceded and led the market movement on May 05, 2026, diminishing confidence in prices exceeding $5.10. There is no information regarding social media activity in the provided research, making it irrelevant to this specific price movement.

#### 📈 May 04, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 46.0% to 64.0%

**What happened:** The provided research does not indicate any specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives coinciding with the 18.0 percentage point spike on May 04, 2026. Instead, the primary driver appears to be persistent geopolitical tensions impacting global oil supply, which have kept Florida's gas prices notably elevated at a four-year high as of early May 2026 [[^]](https://amavita.health/blog/gas-price-florida-consultation-trends-factors-and-consumer-impact)[[^]](https://www.fox13news.com/news/gas-prices-florida-surge-40-cents-last-week-aaa). While no specific event for that date is provided, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and production shut-ins remain significant wildcards that could trigger rapid price increases [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices). This overarching climate of supply risk likely drove the prediction market to price in a greater chance of exceeding $5.10. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver or accelerant based on the available information.

### Outcome: Above $4.90

#### 📈 May 02, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 47.0% to 62.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price spike appears to be the significant and widely reported increase in real-world gas prices in Florida around May 02, 2026. The average price for regular unleaded gasoline surged 40 cents in the first week of May alone, reaching $4.34 per gallon by May 04, 2026, a new four-year high [[^]](https://www.fox13news.com/news/gas-prices-florida-surge-40-cents-last-week-aaa). This rapid increase, coupled with premium gasoline already costing $4.97 per gallon as of April 01, 2026, likely signaled to the market that the "Above $4.90" outcome was increasingly probable [[^]](https://www.fox13news.com/news/gas-prices-florida-surge-40-cents-last-week-aaa)[[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026). Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as no relevant activity from key figures or viral narratives was found in the provided information.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the average regular gas price for Florida is strictly greater than $5.30 by December 31, 2026, as verified by AAA. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on March 19, 2026, and closes either after the outcome occurs or by December 31, 2026, at 9:55 AM EST. Payout is projected to be 1 hour after closing.

## Market Discussion

Traders on Kalshi are divided on whether Florida gas prices will exceed various thresholds this year, with the market showing a 44% chance of prices going above $5.30. Arguments for lower prices point to an imminent "peace deal" that could cause prices to crash. Conversely, some envision prices reaching significantly higher, with one comment mentioning the possibility of prices "Above $7.00."

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $4.50 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $6,432.49 | $3,733.23 |
| Above $4.70 | 65% | 67% | 62% | $3,875.97 | $1,862.87 |
| Above $4.90 | 54% | 56% | 56% | $1,204.66 | $661.58 |
| Above $5.10 | 48% | 56% | 53% | $282.08 | $252.29 |
| Above $5.30 | 44% | 46% | 44% | $1,291.67 | $737.67 |
| Above $5.50 | 27% | 29% | 38% | $697.78 | $595.28 |
| Above $5.70 | 22% | 24% | 28% | $951.3 | $821.02 |
| Above $5.90 | 10% | 18% | 14% | $1,117.46 | $1,002.51 |

## What evidence underpins the EIA's initial 2026 forecast for lower gas prices versus the market's current expectation of prices exceeding $4.50?

Initial 2026 EIA gasoline price forecast | $2.90 to $3.00 per gallon [[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-in-florida-2026)[[^]](https://floridadaily.com/gas-prices-for-floridians-may-drop-in-2026-according-to-energy-information-administration/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press579.php)[[^]](https://www.stout.com/en/insights/commentary/2026-gasoline-price-forecast-what-expect) |
Revised April 2026 EIA gasoline price forecast | $3.70 per gallon [[^]](https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_fuel_price_projections_for_2026_2027-17-apr-2026-183480-article/) |
EIA forecast peak retail gasoline price | nearly $4.30 per gallon in April [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_fuel_price_projections_for_2026_2027-17-apr-2026-183480-article/) |

**The EIA initially predicted significantly lower gasoline prices for 2026**

The EIA initially predicted significantly lower gasoline prices for 2026. This forecast projected U.S. regular retail gasoline prices would average approximately **$2.90** to **$3.00** per gallon, a notable decrease from averages in 2025 and 2024 [[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-in-florida-2026)[[^]](https://floridadaily.com/gas-prices-for-floridians-may-drop-in-2026-according-to-energy-information-administration/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press579.php)[[^]](https://www.stout.com/en/insights/commentary/2026-gasoline-price-forecast-what-expect). This projection was based on expectations that crude oil's contribution to retail gasoline prices would fall below **45%** in 2026 and 2027, with Brent crude prices anticipated to average around **$51** per barrel [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67024)[[^]](https://floridadaily.com/gas-prices-for-floridians-may-drop-in-2026-according-to-energy-information-administration/)[[^]](https://www.stout.com/en/insights/commentary/2026-gasoline-price-forecast-what-expect). Furthermore, the International Energy Agency (IEA) foresaw increased oil production from OPEC+ members, boosting global supply, while the EIA also projected reduced consumer spending on gasoline and a general deceleration of demand growth following a post-pandemic surge [[^]](https://floridadaily.com/gas-prices-for-floridians-may-drop-in-2026-according-to-energy-information-administration/)[[^]](https://newsroom.acg.aaa.com/florida-gas-prices-begin-2026-lower-than-last-year/)[[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-forecast-2026-2027).

However, several factors led to **market** expectations of much higher prices. Geopolitical tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly impacted global oil and gas markets by removing an estimated **20%** of worldwide supplies and adding a **$20**–**$30** per barrel "war premium" to crude oil prices [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/learn/article/gasoline-forecast-and-price-prediction-is-gasoline-a-good-investment). Domestically, substantial maintenance turnarounds at Gulf Coast refineries and other outages created regional fuel shortages, contributing to tight **market** conditions and lower gasoline inventories [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/learn/article/gasoline-forecast-and-price-prediction-is-gasoline-a-good-investment)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67024). Additionally, Florida's expanding population and recovering tourism sector fueled increased gasoline consumption, further tightening supply [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/777338-florida-gas-prices-hit-new-2026-high/). Reflecting these shifts, the EIA considerably raised its 2026 U.S. regular gasoline retail price projection in April 2026 to an average of **$3.70** per gallon, an increase from its March forecast [[^]](https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_fuel_price_projections_for_2026_2027-17-apr-2026-183480-article/). The EIA also forecast retail gasoline prices to peak at nearly **$4.30** per gallon in April [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)[[^]](https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_fuel_price_projections_for_2026_2027-17-apr-2026-183480-article/), with national averages reportedly spiking to **$4.58** per gallon in some regions by early May 2026 [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/learn/article/gasoline-forecast-and-price-prediction-is-gasoline-a-good-investment).

## How might the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season impact Gulf of Mexico oil production and Florida's gasoline supply chain?

US Refining Capacity in Gulf | About half of U.S. capacity [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65304) |
Refinery Capacity Temporarily Offline | More than 1.0 million barrels per day [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65304) |
2026 Named Storms Forecast | 11–16 storms [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/blogs-webinars/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-risks-predictions-business-impact/1888614) |

**The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season poses significant risks to Gulf of Mexico oil production and refining capabilities**

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season poses significant risks to Gulf of Mexico oil production and refining capabilities. Disruptions to crude oil output, offshore production, and refinery operations are possible [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62104). The Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast is particularly vulnerable, as it hosts approximately half of the total U.S. refining capacity [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65304). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that over 1.0 million barrels per day of refining capacity could be temporarily taken offline in anticipation of a major storm [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65304).

Hurricane forecasts indicate activity, though El Niño might lessen Gulf risks. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to include 11–16 named storms and 4–7 hurricanes, with 3–5 expected to impact the U.S. [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/blogs-webinars/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-risks-predictions-business-impact/1888614). AccuWeather cautions that even near-to-below-average storm counts do not negate risk, given the potential for rapid intensification and an elevated risk period from June through early August [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/blogs-webinars/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-risks-predictions-business-impact/1888614). However, historical data suggests that El Niño conditions typically reduce the likelihood of Gulf hurricane formation during June to August, indicating a **57%** chance of a named storm and a **14%** chance of a hurricane in El Niño years [[^]](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/exclusive-analysis-el-nino-could-reduce-chances-gulf-hurricane-2026).

Florida's gasoline supply chain faces potential hurricane-induced price increases. Hurricanes can interrupt the petroleum product supply chains that serve Florida, directly impacting retail gasoline prices within the state [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65304). This disruption of supply chains represents the primary mechanism linking Atlantic hurricane activity to fluctuations in Florida's pump prices [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65304).

## How do 2026 gasoline price trends in Florida compare with those in other tourism-heavy states with no income tax, like Texas and Nevada?

Florida April 2026 YoY Increase | 33-37% [[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/) |
Texas April 2026 YoY Increase | 36-41% [[^]](http://tx-aaa.iprsoftware.com/news/aaa-texas-gas-prices-climb-ahead-of-holiday-weekend-remain-below-year-ago-levels)[[^]](http://tx-aaa.iprsoftware.com/news/aaa-texas-gas-prices-continue-to-climb-as-crude-oil-and-spring-travel-demand-push-higher)[[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/) |
Nevada Late April 2026 Price | Exceeding $5 [[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/stable-national-average-to-start-the-year-lowest-since-2021/)[[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/)[[^]](https://thenevadannews.com/local/local-news/gas-tops-5-in-nevada-as-war-fallout-hits-wallets-and-tourism/) |

**Gasoline prices surged in tourism-heavy states during early 2026**

Gasoline prices surged in tourism-heavy states during early 2026. Florida, Texas, and Nevada, all states with significant tourism and no income tax, experienced notable increases in gasoline prices [[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/). Among these, Texas generally maintained the lowest prices, while Nevada consistently recorded the highest, with Florida's prices positioned between the two [[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026). These states, mirroring a broader national trend, were significantly impacted by rising fuel costs [[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/).

Each state experienced substantial year-over-year gasoline price increases through April. Florida's gasoline prices began at **$2.83** in January 2026, climbed to **$3.90** in March, and reached between **$4.06** and **$4.22** in April, failing to meet its earlier forecast [[^]](https://blog-content.gasbuddy.com/uploads/2026/01/Fuel-Outlook-2026_2025-11-17_FINAL.pdf)[[^]](https://newsroom.acg.aaa.com/florida-gas-prices-begin-2026-lower-than-last-year/)[[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/). This represented a 33-**37%** year-over-year increase for Florida in April 2026 [[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/). Texas, which consistently had the lowest prices, saw an ascent from **$2.55** in February to **$3.61** in March and **$3.74**-**$3.77** in April, reflecting a 36-**41%** year-over-year increase by April 2026 [[^]](http://tx-aaa.iprsoftware.com/news/aaa-texas-gas-prices-climb-ahead-of-holiday-weekend-remain-below-year-ago-levels)[[^]](http://tx-aaa.iprsoftware.com/news/aaa-texas-gas-prices-continue-to-climb-as-crude-oil-and-spring-travel-demand-push-higher)[[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/). Nevada registered the highest prices, ranging from **$3.37**-**$3.88** in January, hitting **$4.98** in April, and exceeding **$5** by late April, marking a 26-**28%** year-over-year increase for April 2026 [[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/stable-national-average-to-start-the-year-lowest-since-2021/)[[^]](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/statistics/gas-prices-by-state/)[[^]](https://thenevadannews.com/local/local-news/gas-tops-5-in-nevada-as-war-fallout-hits-wallets-and-tourism/).

National crude oil prices and ongoing conflict fueled widespread price hikes. The surge in prices across these states mirrored a national trend where the average gasoline price increased by **62%**, from **$2.81** in January to **$4.56** in May [[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-rises-25-cents-for-second-straight-week/)[[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/stable-national-average-to-start-the-year-lowest-since-2021/)[[^]](https://www.fox13news.com/news/expensive-cheapest-gas-prices-aa). This national rise was primarily driven by crude oil prices surpassing **$100** per barrel due to the Iran war [[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-rises-25-cents-for-second-straight-week/)[[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/stable-national-average-to-start-the-year-lowest-since-2021/)[[^]](https://www.fox13news.com/news/expensive-cheapest-gas-prices-aa). Should the conflict persist, national gasoline prices could potentially reach **$5** or more [[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-rises-25-cents-for-second-straight-week/)[[^]](https://gasprices.aaa.com/stable-national-average-to-start-the-year-lowest-since-2021/)[[^]](https://www.fox13news.com/news/expensive-cheapest-gas-prices-aa). Furthermore, Florida and Nevada may encounter even higher price peaks in the third and fourth quarters, influenced by factors such as hurricane activity and increased tourism demand [[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-in-florida-2026).

## What is the historical correlation between Florida's average gasoline price and U.S. refinery utilization rates during the peak summer driving season?

Historical correlation status | Not explicitly published for FL gas prices and US refinery utilization during summer [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_SFL_DPG)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=mopueus2) |
Data series availability | Monthly data for FL retail gasoline prices and US refinery utilization available for decades from EIA [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_SFL_DPG)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=mopueus2) |
Refinery utilization peak | Tends to peak in the second and third quarters, aligning with summer demand [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/tODAyinenergy/detail.php?id=22412)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/summerfuels.php) |

**Direct historical correlation between Florida gas prices and refinery utilization is not explicitly published**

Direct historical correlation between Florida gas prices and refinery utilization is not explicitly published. While the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides monthly data for Florida retail gasoline prices and U.S. percent utilization of refinery operable capacity, spanning several decades, an explicit historical correlation between these two data series during the peak summer driving season (June-August) is not readily available [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_SFL_DPG)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=mopueus2). The necessary data for such a computation are, however, available [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_SFL_DPG)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=mopueus2).

Refinery utilization typically peaks in summer, impacting Florida's vulnerable **market**. The EIA notes that refinery runs and utilization generally reach their highest levels during the second and third quarters, coinciding with the period of highest summer fuel demand [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/tODAyinenergy/detail.php?id=22412)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/summerfuels.php). This pattern suggests a link between refinery utilization levels and potential tightness in the summer gasoline **market**, which can influence retail prices [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/tODAyinenergy/detail.php?id=22412)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/summerfuels.php). Florida's gasoline **market** is especially susceptible to tightness and volatility because it relies heavily on shipped-in gasoline, lacking major pipeline connections to extensive supply hubs [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=15651)[[^]](https://www.winknews.com/wink_investigations/no-pipelines-no-refineries-the-invisible-costs-keeping-florida-gas-prices-high/article_1a07186d-060c-4f8d-bbb5-1f6a8fed0234.html). This dependency means that Florida's retail prices can react swiftly to changes in production, utilization, or logistics [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=15651)[[^]](https://www.winknews.com/wink_investigations/no-pipelines-no-refineries-the-invisible-costs-keeping-florida-gas-prices-high/article_1a07186d-060c-4f8d-bbb5-1f6a8fed0234.html). This information is pertinent to prediction markets, such as those tracking Florida's average regular gasoline price levels and resolving by specific dates like December 31, 2026 [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/how-high-will-gas-prices-in-florida-get-this-year-dec-31-2026/)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaaagasmaxfl/florida-highest-gas-price-yearly/kxaaagasmaxfl-26dec31).

## Beyond the Iranian conflict, what other global supply risks, such as OPEC+ production decisions or new SPR releases, could alter Florida's gas prices before year-end 2026?

OPEC+ June 2026 Production Adjustment | +188,000 bpd (from May 3, 2026) [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/602-3-may-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html) |
US SPR Release Authorization | 172 million barrels (March 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve)[[^]](https://today.reuters.com/business/energy/us-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2026-03-11/) |
SPR Delivery Expected Time | Approximately 120 days [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve)[[^]](https://today.reuters.com/business/energy/us-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2026-03-11/) |

**OPEC+ and SPR releases create significant supply uncertainties for Florida gas prices**

OPEC+ and SPR releases create significant supply uncertainties for Florida gas prices. On May 3, 2026, OPEC+ approved a production adjustment to increase supply by +188,000 bpd from prior voluntary reductions, starting in June 2026, with flexibility for modification based on **market** conditions [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/602-3-may-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html). This increase could pose an upside risk to Florida gas prices if supply remains tight despite the additional barrels [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/602-3-may-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html). In contrast, the US Department of Energy authorized a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release of 172 million barrels on March 11, 2026, as part of a larger IEA-coordinated effort [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve)[[^]](https://today.reuters.com/business/energy/us-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2026-03-11/). This release, which commenced the following week and is expected to take approximately 120 days to deliver, has the potential to reduce crude and refined-product price pressure throughout 2026, potentially moderating Florida retail gasoline prices if absorbed as intended [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve)[[^]](https://today.reuters.com/business/energy/us-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2026-03-11/).

Elevated hurricane risk presents another critical supply disruption to Florida's fuel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration states that Florida primarily receives its fuel supplies from Gulf Coast refineries via barges [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65304). Given a forecasted elevated hurricane risk for the Gulf/Florida exposure zone, any storm-related disruptions to refineries or transfer operations before year-end 2026 could tighten local supply and lead to higher Florida gas prices, even without changes in OPEC+ policy [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65304)[[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/blogs-webinars/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-risks-predictions-business-impact/1888614). These supply shocks, if they move wholesale benchmarks within 2026, can affect the payout risk distribution for the Florida 'gas prices this year' prediction **market**, which resolves based on AAA's average regular gas price for Florida at a strict December 31, 2026 threshold [[^]](https://www.solflare.com/prediction/economics/event/KXAAAGASMINFL-26DEC31/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The rapid escalation of gas prices in Florida, reaching approximately $4.46 per gallon for regular unleaded as of early May 2026, is largely attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the Iran war and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven up crude oil prices globally [[^]](https://www.news4jax.com/money/2026/05/06/gas-prices-in-jacksonville-spike-30-cents-in-just-a-week-data-show/)[[^]](https://amavita.health/blog/gas-price-florida-consultation-trends-factors-and-consumer-impact)[[^]](https://www.fox13news.com/news/gas-prices-florida-surge-40-cents-last-week-aaa)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/economy/fed-paints-worrisome-economic-picture-as-inflation-spikes-gas-prices-and-increases-gap-between-rich-and-poor).** This geopolitical tension remains the most significant bullish catalyst, with any disruptions to oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz capable of causing sharp price increases [[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-in-florida-2026)[[^]](https://amavita.health/blog/gas-price-florida-consultation-trends-factors-and-consumer-impact)[[^]](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/executive-briefing/oil-gas-price-forecast-2026-2050.html)[[^]](https://www.news4jax.com/money/2026/05/06/gas-prices-in-jacksonville-spike-30-cents-in-just-a-week-data-show/)[[^]](https://www.fox13news.com/news/gas-prices-florida-surge-40-cents-last-week-aaa)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/economy/fed-paints-worrisome-economic-picture-as-inflation-spikes-gas-prices-and-increases-gap-between-rich-and-poor). Crude oil typically accounts for over half of the retail gasoline price [[^]](https://www.news4jax.com/money/2026/05/06/gas-prices-in-jacksonville-spike-30-cents-in-just-a-week-data-show/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67024). There is a **70%** chance of prices going above **$4.90**, a **53%** chance of them surpassing **$5.10**, and a **46%** chance of reaching above **$5.30** by December 31, 2026 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaaagasmaxfl/florida-highest-gas-price-yearly/kxaaagasmaxfl-26dec31). Short-term volatility, with spikes of **20%** or more over a few weeks, remains a distinct possibility for Florida [[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-in-florida-2026).

**Several additional factors are expected to influence Florida's gas prices, including seasonal demand from tourism and hurricane season which can lead to local price spikes [[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-in-florida-2026)[[^]](https://amavita.health/blog/gas-price-florida-consultation-trends-factors-and-consumer-impact)[[^]](https://newsroom.acg.aaa.com/florida-gas-prices-begin-2026-lower-than-last-year/).** Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity in 2026 could also offset some benefits of lower crude oil prices, particularly in certain regions [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67024). While overall global oil demand growth is expected to slow due to increased electric vehicle adoption and efficiency gains, major producers are likely to manage supply to defend a price floor [[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-forecast-2026-2027). Despite these factors, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) had projected average U.S. gasoline prices to be around **$2.90** per gallon in 2026, based on an expectation of global crude oil supply increases outpacing demand and crude oil prices falling to their lowest annual average since 2020 [[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-in-florida-2026)[[^]](https://www.stout.com/en/insights/commentary/2026-gasoline-price-forecast-what-expect)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67024). High gas prices are also contributing to inflation and can impact consumer spending habits [[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/economy/fed-paints-worrisome-economic-picture-as-inflation-spikes-gas-prices-and-increases-gap-between-rich-and-poor).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** December 31, 2026
- **Expiration:** January 07, 2027
- **Closes:** December 31, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The rapid escalation of gas prices in Florida, reaching approximately **$4.46** per gallon for regular unleaded as of early May 2026, is largely attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the Iran war and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven up crude oil prices globally [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- This geopolitical tension remains the most significant bullish catalyst, with any disruptions to oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz capable of causing sharp price increases [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Crude oil typically accounts for over half of the retail gasoline price [^] [^] .
- There is a **70%** chance of prices going above **$4.90**, a **53%** chance of them surpassing **$5.10**, and a **46%** chance of reaching above **$5.30** by December 31, 2026 [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 8 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 8 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.30: YES (May 04, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.10: YES (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-3.90: YES (Mar 22, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-3.70: YES (Mar 11, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-3.50: YES (Mar 11, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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