# How high will gas prices in California get this year?

In 2026

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Oil & Gas
Oil and energy

HTML: /markets/economics/oil-gas/how-high-will-gas-prices-in-california-get-this-year/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that California gas prices will get above **$4.70** this year, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Expert forecasts indicate California gas prices may reach $7-8 per gallon.** - Refinery closures significantly reduce capacity, expected to increase gasoline prices in 2026.
- An additional LCFS tax increase becomes effective in July 2026.
- California's specific taxes and blend requirements add to pump prices.
- Geopolitical tensions may push crude oil prices above **$100** per barrel.
- Valero's refinery transition is expected to affect West Coast supply and price volatility.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **91.9%** is below the 93c **market**, implying a -1.1pp gap despite forecasts of **$7**-8 gas from refinery impacts.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $7.40 | 42.0% | 40.2% | Expert forecasts, reduced refining capacity, and a 2026 LCFS tax increase point to $7-$8 per gallon. |
| Above $7.60 | 26.0% | 27.5% | Expert forecasts, reduced refining capacity, and a 2026 LCFS tax increase point to $7-$8 per gallon. |
| Above $7.20 | 55.0% | 52.3% | Expert forecasts, reduced refining capacity, and a 2026 LCFS tax increase point to $7-$8 per gallon. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $7.40 | 42.0% | 40.2% |
| Above $7.60 | 26.0% | 27.5% |
| Above $7.20 | 55.0% | 52.3% |
| Above $7.00 | 60.0% | 57.2% |
| Above $6.80 | 68.0% | 65.1% |
| Above $6.20 | 93.0% | 91.9% |
| Above $6.60 | 73.0% | 70.2% |
| Above $6.40 | 79.0% | 76.5% |
| Above $8.00 | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| Above $7.80 | 28.0% | 26.7% |

- Expiration: December 31, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has demonstrated a strong upward trend, with the probability of a "YES" outcome rising from a starting point of 61.0% to a current price of 93.0%. The most significant price action occurred in late April, with a 12.0 percentage point spike on April 27 and a subsequent 10.0 percentage point spike on April 29. These rapid increases, which pushed the price from 73.0% to 94.0% in a short period, were likely driven by the dissemination of expert forecasts and studies. The provided context suggests that reports of California gas prices potentially exceeding $7 or even $8 a gallon by the end of 2026 were assimilated by the market, leading to a swift re-evaluation of the contract's likelihood.

The total trading volume of 1,912 contracts indicates a moderate level of market engagement. While not exceptionally high, the sharp price movements suggest that traders are acting decisively on new information. The chart shows an initial support level around the 60.0% mark before the late April breakout. The price has since established a new range, finding resistance near 94.0% and currently consolidating around 93.0%. This high price level indicates a strong market consensus and a high degree of confidence in a "YES" resolution. Overall market sentiment is decidedly bullish, reflecting the belief that economic factors and expert analyses point toward significantly higher gas prices in California by the end of the year.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above $6.60

#### 📉 May 08, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 84.0% to 73.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market's price drop was likely the statement made on May 06, 2026, by California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda. He indicated that gas prices could stabilize around ~$6.50 (or at least under $7) if supply issues ease over the next months, despite ongoing Iran-war-related disruptions [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article315648899.html)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/news/official-predicts-6-weeks-stability-172743374.html). This official outlook, suggesting prices might not consistently exceed the $6.60 threshold, likely led to decreased confidence in the "Above $6.60" outcome. Social media was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant.

#### 📉 May 05, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 93.0% to 77.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver for the 16.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $6.60" market outcome was likely an emerging sentiment, reported on May 6, 2026, that California gas prices would stabilize around $6.50 per gallon [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article315648899.html). This outlook, conveyed by CEC vice chair Siva Gunda, suggested prices would remain below the $6.60 threshold despite existing supply disruptions [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article315648899.html). Notably, there is no evidence of social media activity from key figures or viral narratives influencing this specific market movement in the provided research. Consequently, social media was irrelevant to this particular price action.

#### 📈 April 30, 2026: 24.0pp spike

Price increased from 64.0% to 88.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price spike was traditional news reporting on real-world gas price movements. On April 30, 2026, major outlets announced that California's statewide average for regular gasoline had surged above $6.00, reaching approximately $6.01, with this spike attributed to an "Iran bombing" [[^]](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-gas-prices-above-6-dollars-sacramento-stockton-modesto/71176263). This confirmed upward trend and geopolitical link likely prompted increased confidence that prices would exceed $6.60, especially considering subsequent official projections of stabilization around $6.50 or under $7 if the Iran-related situation endured [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article315648899.html). Social media was irrelevant as no related activity was found in the provided sources.

### Outcome: Above $6.40

#### 📉 May 06, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 95.0% to 83.0%

**What happened:** The provided web research largely details factors expected to *increase* California gas prices, such as refinery closures, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal blends, making a drop in the likelihood of prices exceeding $6.40 counter-intuitive based on the given information [[^]](https://www.kpbs.org/news/economy/2026/03/16/refineries-summer-blends-international-conflict-what-drives-californias-high-gas-prices)[[^]](https://californiapolicycenter.org/what-will-california-gas-prices-do-in-2026/)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026). There is no mention of social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors in the provided sources that would account for a 12.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for prices exceeding $6.40 on May 06, 2026. Therefore, based solely on the available data, a primary driver for this specific price movement cannot be identified. Social media activity is irrelevant as no such activity is mentioned in the provided research.

### Outcome: Above $7.00

#### 📈 May 04, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 58.0% to 67.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike was traditional news, as California's statewide regular gasoline average surpassed $6 per gallon on May 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article315628105.html). This coincided with announcements from California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda, who predicted price stabilization around $6.50 and "at least under $7" for six weeks, but also highlighted the potential for increases if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and "longer-term risk tied to the war and refinery/output vulnerability" [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article315648899.html)[[^]](https://abcnews.com/Business/california-risk-gasoline-shortage-amid-iran-war-experts/story?id=132666507). The market likely interpreted the current price increase and the official's acknowledged long-term risks from ongoing geopolitical events and refinery vulnerability as making the $7.00 threshold more probable over the year, leading to the surge in the "Above $7.00" outcome. Social media activity was not identified in the provided research, making it irrelevant.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the average regular gas price for California is strictly greater than $7.20 by December 31, 2026, as verified by AAA. It resolves to NO if the price is $7.20 or less by that date. The market closes upon the outcome occurring (at 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET) or by December 31, 2026, 9:55am EST if the event does not occur, with insider trading explicitly prohibited.

## Market Discussion

Traders largely anticipate California gas prices to exceed $7.00, with market probabilities showing a 55% chance of prices going above $7.20 this year. Arguments for higher prices attribute potential increases to factors like war, with some participants suggesting prices are "guaranteed" to surpass $7.70 or even $8.00 without federal intervention. While there's a strong bullish sentiment, some discussion reflects uncertainty regarding the market's resolution, specifically whether it tracks the annual peak or the price on December 31st.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $6.20 | 93% | 97% | 93% | $2,703.31 | $875.45 |
| Above $6.40 | 84% | 88% | 79% | $2,186.17 | $589.62 |
| Above $6.60 | 67% | 77% | 73% | $2,424.86 | $780.1 |
| Above $6.80 | 66% | 71% | 68% | $4,567.34 | $2,484.45 |
| Above $7.00 | 56% | 66% | 60% | $4,767.31 | $2,986.14 |
| Above $7.20 | 54% | 55% | 55% | $5,533.52 | $3,499.56 |
| Above $7.40 | 39% | 41% | 42% | $6,725.39 | $4,437.81 |
| Above $7.60 | 31% | 32% | 26% | $6,589.33 | $3,070.2 |
| Above $7.80 | 21% | 30% | 28% | $265.7 | $217.4 |
| Above $8.00 | 17% | 25% | 19% | $663.55 | $530.55 |

## What is the projected price impact of the Phillips 66 and Valero refinery closures on California gasoline in 2026?

Projected Gas Price Range (Year-end 2026) | $7.348–$8.435 per gallon [[^]](https://californiapolicycenter.org/what-will-california-gas-prices-do-in-2026/) |
Max Price Increase vs. Baseline | Up to approximately 75% (vs. $4.816 baseline) [[^]](https://californiapolicycenter.org/what-will-california-gas-prices-do-in-2026/) |
UC Davis Price Increase (Full Effect) | $1.21 per gallon by August 2026 [[^]](https://caes.ucdavis.edu/news/california-gas-prices-set-soar-2026) |

**The combined impact of refinery closures could significantly increase California gasoline prices by 2026**

The combined impact of refinery closures could significantly increase California gasoline prices by 2026. Economist estimates project that the closures of the Phillips 66 and Valero refineries by April 2026 may elevate California regular gasoline prices to a range of **$7.348**–**$8.435** per gallon by the end of 2026 [[^]](https://californiapolicycenter.org/what-will-california-gas-prices-do-in-2026/). This projection indicates a potential increase of up to approximately **75%** when compared to an April 23, 2025 baseline price of **$4.816** per gallon [[^]](https://californiapolicycenter.org/what-will-california-gas-prices-do-in-2026/).

Specific analyses detail potential increases and **market** expectations for future prices. Further analysis from UC Davis indicates that prices could rise by about **$1.21** per gallon above the current **market** price once the full effect of the closures is realized around August 2026 [[^]](https://caes.ucdavis.edu/news/california-gas-prices-set-soar-2026). An initial increase of **$0.40** is also anticipated almost immediately after the first closure, assuming no other **market** changes [[^]](https://caes.ucdavis.edu/news/california-gas-prices-set-soar-2026). Prediction markets corroborate the plausibility of sustained high prices for late-2026 averages, with one snapshot showing a **59%** chance of prices being “Above **$7.00**” and a **52%** chance of being “Above **$7.20**” by December 31, 2026 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaaagasmaxca/california-highest-gas-price-yearly/kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31).

## How do the leading economic forecasts from UC Davis and USC justify predictions of $7 to $8 per gallon gas in California?

Projected Worst-Case Gas Price | $7.24 to $8.43 per gallon by end of 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/california/california-gas-could-hit-7-a-gallon-or-more-expert-warns-amid-iran-conflict/509-f4841b42-7eb5-41b7-ae85-299c8b89928b)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/report-california-gas-prices-8-dollars-in-2026/)[[^]](https://moneywise.com/news/californians-will-be-blindsided-gas-prices-could-surge-75-percent-to-8-dollars-per-gallon-by-2026-heres-whats-driving-the-pending-crisis-and-what-you-can-do-to-prepare)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026)[[^]](https://kfiam640.iheart.com/content/2025-05-07-california-gas-prices-may-exceed-8-by-2026-report-warns/)[[^]](https://sr40.senate.ca.gov/content/california-gas-prices-could-skyrocket-75-843gallon-refineries-close) |
Refinery Capacity Reduction | 18-21% of in-state gasoline supply [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/report-california-gas-prices-8-dollars-in-2026/)[[^]](https://kfiam640.iheart.com/content/2025-05-07-california-gas-prices-may-exceed-8-by-2026-report-warns/)[[^]](https://sr40.senate.ca.gov/content/california-gas-prices-could-skyrocket-75-843gallon-refineries-close) |
LCFS Projected Price Increase | Up to $0.65 per gallon [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/report-california-gas-prices-8-dollars-in-2026/)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026) |

**Leading economic forecasts from USC anticipate $7-8 per gallon gas in California**

Leading economic forecasts from USC anticipate **$7**-8 per gallon gas in California. Michael Mische of USC's Marshall School of Business projects that California gas prices could reach **$7.24** to **$8.43** per gallon by the end of 2026 in a worst-case scenario [[^]](https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/california/california-gas-could-hit-7-a-gallon-or-more-expert-warns-amid-iran-conflict/509-f4841b42-7eb5-41b7-ae85-299c8b89928b)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/report-california-gas-prices-8-dollars-in-2026/)[[^]](https://moneywise.com/news/californians-will-be-blindsided-gas-prices-could-surge-75-percent-to-8-dollars-per-gallon-by-2026-heres-whats-driving-the-pending-crisis-and-what-you-can-do-to-prepare)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026)[[^]](https://kfiam640.iheart.com/content/2025-05-07-california-gas-prices-may-exceed-8-by-2026-report-warns/)[[^]](https://sr40.senate.ca.gov/content/california-gas-prices-could-skyrocket-75-843gallon-refineries-close). These predictions are primarily driven by planned refinery closures within the state, California's unique **market** vulnerabilities, and geopolitical instability.

Planned refinery shutdowns significantly reduce California's fuel supply and capacity. The impending closure of the Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles by the end of 2025, followed by the Valero refinery in Benicia in April 2026, is expected to reduce California's refining capacity by approximately 18-**21%** [[^]](https://www.foxla.com/news/california-gas-prices-8-dollars-a-gallon-by-2026-usc-study)[[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/report-california-gas-prices-8-dollars-in-2026/)[[^]](https://kfiam640.iheart.com/content/2025-05-07-california-gas-prices-may-exceed-8-by-2026-report-warns/)[[^]](https://sr40.senate.ca.gov/content/california-gas-prices-could-skyrocket-75-843gallon-refineries-close). This translates to about **20%** of the state's in-state gasoline supply, potentially creating a daily shortfall of 6.6 million to 13.1 million gallons [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/report-california-gas-prices-8-dollars-in-2026/)[[^]](https://kfiam640.iheart.com/content/2025-05-07-california-gas-prices-may-exceed-8-by-2026-report-warns/)[[^]](https://sr40.senate.ca.gov/content/california-gas-prices-could-skyrocket-75-843gallon-refineries-close). USC's research suggests these closures alone could increase prices by **$1.21** per gallon by August 2026, with an immediate 40-cent surge after the first closure [[^]](https://caes.ucdavis.edu/news/california-gas-prices-set-soar-2026)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026). California's **market** vulnerabilities further exacerbate the situation, including its reliance on foreign oil, lack of interstate pipelines, and the mandatory, more expensive summer fuel blend, which adds 15-17 cents per gallon [[^]](https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/california/california-gas-could-hit-7-a-gallon-or-more-expert-warns-amid-iran-conflict/509-f4841b42-7eb5-41b7-ae85-299c8b89928b). Strict environmental regulations require a unique gasoline blend, making it difficult to replace supply with out-of-state imports [[^]](https://caes.ucdavis.edu/news/california-gas-prices-set-soar-2026)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLviVYCxp-8)[[^]](https://californiapolicycenter.org/what-will-california-gas-prices-do-in-2026/). Other contributing factors include rising taxes and regulatory costs, such as state excise and sales taxes, cap-and-trade, and pending Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) changes, which could add **$0.65** per gallon [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/report-california-gas-prices-8-dollars-in-2026/)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026), as well as declining in-state oil production. Geopolitical instability, such as international conflicts, can also disrupt global oil shipments and increase crude oil prices [[^]](https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/california/california-gas-could-hit-7-a-gallon-or-more-expert-warns-amid-iran-conflict/509-f4841b42-7eb5-41b7-ae85-299c8b89928b)[[^]](https://www.cbs8.com/video/news/local/california/gas-prices-in-california-could-climb-above-7-a-gallon-if-the-us-iran-conflict-continues/509-de446820-7714-499a-bf48-2614812e3be9)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026)[[^]](https://recharged.com/articles/gas-prices-in-california-2026).

UC Davis experts acknowledge challenges but are skeptical of extreme price forecasts. While economists at UC Davis recognize the difficulties of offsetting reduced refining capacity with imports due to California's regulatory environment [[^]](https://caes.ucdavis.edu/news/california-gas-prices-set-soar-2026), Colin Murphy from the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies expresses skepticism about prices reaching **$8** per gallon. He characterizes such projections as "worst-case possibilities" and notes that the California Energy Commission is actively pursuing mitigation strategies [[^]](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/expert-says-california-gas-prices-go-8-gallon-20317070.php).

## How much do California's specific gas taxes and seasonal blend requirements add to the price at the pump compared to the U.S. national average?

CA gas taxes vs. national average | Approximately 37 cents more per gallon than the national average [[^]](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-do-you-pay-in-gas-taxes/) |
Cost of special cleaner-burning gasoline blend | Approximately 10 cents per gallon [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65184)[[^]](https://cfca.energy/california/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/regional-price-differences.php)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-blends-what-and-why) |
Cost of summer-blend fuel | Estimated 13 to 15 cents per gallon [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65184)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-blends-what-and-why)[[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article314746242.html)[[^]](https://sr19.senate.ca.gov/content/op-ed-why-are-californians-still-paying-so-much-pump)[[^]](https://www.convenience.org/Topics/Fuels/Changing-Seasons-Changing-Gas-Prices) |

**California's gasoline prices are significantly influenced by specific taxes and fees**

California's gasoline prices are significantly influenced by specific taxes and fees. Californians pay approximately 89 cents per gallon in combined federal, state, and local taxes and fees, which is about 37 cents more per gallon than the national average of 52 cents [[^]](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-do-you-pay-in-gas-taxes/). These taxes and fees typically add between 70 and 90 cents per gallon to the price [[^]](https://cal.streetsblog.org/2026/05/06/heres-a-primer-to-understand-whats-really-driving-prices-in-california). Environmental compliance costs, as of March 2025, were estimated to add up to **$0.54** per gallon [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65184). Specific programs like the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) can add 10 to 20 cents per gallon, and the Cap-and-Trade program contributes roughly 20 to 30 cents per gallon, depending on **market** conditions [[^]](https://cal.streetsblog.org/2026/05/06/heres-a-primer-to-understand-whats-really-driving-prices-in-california). An update to the LCFS taking effect in July 2026 could potentially add an additional **$0.65** per gallon [[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026).

Unique fuel blend requirements further elevate California gasoline prices. The state mandates a special cleaner-burning gasoline known as California Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG), which is more expensive to produce and typically adds about 10 cents per gallon compared to conventional gasoline [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65184)[[^]](https://cfca.energy/california/)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/regional-price-differences.php)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-blends-what-and-why). Furthermore, the seasonal requirement for summer-blend fuel, which reduces evaporation in warmer temperatures, is also more costly to produce, adding an estimated 13 to 15 cents per gallon [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article314746242.html)[[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-blends-what-and-why)[[^]](https://sr19.senate.ca.gov/content/op-ed-why-are-californians-still-paying-so-much-pump)[[^]](https://www.convenience.org/Topics/Fuels/Changing-Seasons-Changing-Gas-Prices). California often begins its transition to summer-blend fuel earlier than other states, which can lead to earlier price increases [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article314746242.html)[[^]](https://info.oregon.aaa.com/transition-to-summer-blend-gas-begins-in-california-pushing-west-coast-gas-prices-higher/).

## Which EIA and California Energy Commission reports provide the most timely data on West Coast refinery operations and gasoline inventories?

West Coast Refinery Gross Inputs | 1,933 thousand barrels/day (for week ending May 1, 2026) [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_r50_w.htm) |
West Coast Refinery Utilization | 79.9% (for week ending May 1, 2026) [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_r50_w.htm) |
CEC Fuels Watch Latest Update | March 25, 2026 [[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/reports/weekly-fuels-watch/refinery-stocks)[[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/reports/weekly-fuels-watch) |

**The U.S**

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and California Energy Commission (CEC) reports offer timely West Coast refinery data. The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the CEC's Weekly Fuels Watch are primary sources for current information on West Coast refinery operations and gasoline inventories [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_r50_w.htm)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/)[[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/reports/weekly-fuels-watch/refinery-stocks)[[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/reports/weekly-fuels-watch). The EIA WPSR is released every Wednesday, providing details on PADD 5 refinery utilization and gasoline inventories [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_r50_w.htm)[[^]](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/). The CEC Weekly Fuels Watch offers refinery stocks dashboard data, with updates typically posted weekly by Wednesday or Thursday at 5 p.m. [[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/reports/weekly-fuels-watch/refinery-stocks)[[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/reports/weekly-fuels-watch).

The EIA WPSR provides extensive historical and current refinery data. This report has consistently offered weekly data since the 1990s [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_r50_w.htm). For instance, the report for the week ending May 1, 2026, indicated that West Coast refinery gross inputs averaged approximately 1,933 thousand barrels/day, operating at **79.9%** utilization [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_r50_w.htm).

The CEC Weekly Fuels Watch tracks California's refinery operations since 2005. This report includes data from 2005 to the present, with its last noted update on March 25, 2026 [[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/reports/weekly-fuels-watch/refinery-stocks)[[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/reports/weekly-fuels-watch). The CEC gathers detailed weekly operational data for California through its PIIRA forms, which include requirements for both refinery monthly and weekly reports [[^]](https://www.energy.ca.gov/files/piira-forms-and-instructions).

## What specific geopolitical scenarios involving OPEC+ or conflict in the Middle East could push crude oil prices above $100 per barrel in 2026?

Crude Oil Price Threshold | Above $100 per barrel (2026 [[^]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/04/28/commodity-markets-outlook-april-2026-press-release)) |
Brent Crude Average (Scenario) | As high as $115 per barrel (2026 [[^]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/04/28/commodity-markets-outlook-april-2026-press-release)) |
Price Spike Potential | Above $150 per barrel (if Hormuz disrupted into mid-May [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/opec-plans-206kb-april-increase-physical-capacity-remains-constrained-middle-east-conflict-2605/)) |

**Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could significantly elevate crude oil prices**

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could significantly elevate crude oil prices. Specific geopolitical scenarios, particularly those involving OPEC+ actions or conflict in the Middle East, are identified as key factors that could push crude oil prices above **$100** per barrel in 2026 [[^]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/04/28/commodity-markets-outlook-april-2026-press-release). Hostilities in the region could cause further damage and slow the recovery of export volumes [[^]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/04/28/commodity-markets-outlook-april-2026-press-release). Such events are projected to result in substantial supply disruptions and persistent bottlenecks, preventing OPEC+ from effectively offsetting **market** losses and thereby supporting crude prices above **$100** [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026). The World Bank, for instance, projects that Brent crude could average as high as **$115** per barrel in 2026 should Middle East hostilities impede export-volume recovery [[^]](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/04/28/commodity-markets-outlook-april-2026-press-release).

Sustained disruption of the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant threat. A sustained or renewed disruption of Strait of Hormuz flows represents a concrete mechanism for such price increases [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026). A significant disruption or closure of this crucial waterway due to Middle East conflict could remove substantial volumes from the **market**, potentially leading to a rapid repricing of crude oil [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/opec-plans-206kb-april-increase-physical-capacity-remains-constrained-middle-east-conflict-2605/). Even if OPEC+ approves quota increases, physical deliverability can remain constrained if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, effectively erasing the spare capacity needed to meet targets [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/opec-plans-206kb-april-increase-physical-capacity-remains-constrained-middle-east-conflict-2605/). Under such conditions, spikes above **$150** per barrel are considered possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted into mid-May [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/opec-plans-206kb-april-increase-physical-capacity-remains-constrained-middle-east-conflict-2605/). Additionally, a renewed escalation or continuation of a US-Iran blockade, or a breakdown in talks, could also push crude oil prices above **$100** per barrel in 2026 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-bounces-back-above-100-after-us-iran-talks-end-stalemate-2026-04-12/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**EIA expects U.S.** retail gasoline prices to fall in 2026 versus 2025 (down **6%** in 2026), but notes that the West Coast (PADD 5) could face relatively higher prices due to an upcoming loss of refinery capacity, which is expected to contribute to higher margins and prices through 2026-2027 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67024). The transition of Valero’s Benicia refinery is a significant factor, with the company updating plans to keep producing gasoline until reserves are depleted, after which it will start importing. This operational and structural supply change is expected to affect West Coast tightness and potentially price volatility in spring and summer 2026 [[^]](https://www.kalw.org/kalw-news/2026-01-08/valero-updates-plan-to-idle-operations-at-benicia-refinery)[[^]](https://preprod.eastbaytimes.com/2026/01/08/valero-confirms-refinery-closure-import-gas/). A 2026 analysis of the West Coast (PADD 5) sets late-2026 regular gasoline bands from about **$6.00**–**$7.35** in a base case up to **$7.35**–**$8.44** in a pessimistic scenario, explicitly connecting these projections to refinery capacity loss and the duration of conflict or geopolitical stress [[^]](https://lodi411.com/lodi-eye/california-fuel-price-projections-amp-analysis-2026).

**Geopolitical events pose an additional risk; a state or press report in early May 2026 tied near-term spikes to the Iran-war disruption risk, saying that oil companies have planned shipments that could provide stability for another approximately 6 weeks if there isn’t an opening of the Strait, otherwise price increases are likely [[^]](https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article315648899.html).** **Market** probabilities reflect these concerns, with a Kalshi-style **probability** snapshot for California “Above **$7.00**” showing **59%** and “Above **$7.20**” showing **52%** for the contract resolving at December 31, 2026, based on AAA’s California average regular gasoline price [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaaagasmaxca/california-highest-gas-price-yearly/kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** December 31, 2026
- **Expiration:** January 07, 2027
- **Closes:** December 31, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- EIA expects U.S.
- Retail gasoline prices to fall in 2026 versus 2025 (down **6%** in 2026), but notes that the West Coast (PADD 5) could face relatively higher prices due to an upcoming loss of refinery capacity, which is expected to contribute to higher margins and prices through 2026-2027 [^] .
- The transition of Valero’s Benicia refinery is a significant factor, with the company updating plans to keep producing gasoline until reserves are depleted, after which it will start importing.
- This operational and structural supply change is expected to affect West Coast tightness and potentially price volatility in spring and summer 2026 [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 14 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 14 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.00: YES (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-5.90: YES (Apr 06, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-5.80: YES (Mar 24, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-5.70: YES (Mar 22, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-5.60: YES (Mar 19, 2026)

## Disclaimer

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**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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