# US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026

On Apr 29, 2026

Updated: April 28, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Oil and energy
Econ Daily

HTML: /markets/economics/oil-and-energy/us-gas-prices-on-apr-29-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect US gas prices to be above **$4.130** on April 29, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Global oil market faces supply deficits in early 2026.** - US operable refinery capacity decreases by Spring 2026.
- Seasonal shift to summer-blend gasoline exerts upward price pressure.
- Electric vehicles significantly reduce US gasoline demand.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.1%** aligns with 99c **market**, reflecting tight supply, lower refinery capacity, and contango for gas prices.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 4.225 | 42.0% | 45.8% | Oil market deficits, reduced refinery capacity, and seasonal summer gas shift prices higher. |
| Above 4.230 | 40.0% | 43.7% | Oil market deficits, reduced refinery capacity, and seasonal summer gas shift prices higher. |
| Above 4.170 | 98.0% | 99.1% | Oil market deficits, reduced refinery capacity, and seasonal summer gas shift prices higher. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 4.225 | 42.0% | 45.8% |
| Above 4.230 | 40.0% | 43.7% |
| Above 4.170 | 98.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.175 | 98.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.165 | 97.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.195 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.210 | 79.0% | 81.5% |
| Above 4.130 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.150 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.135 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.140 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.145 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.155 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.160 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.215 | 59.0% | 62.7% |
| Above 4.235 | 28.0% | 34.3% |
| Above 4.220 | 42.0% | 45.8% |
| Above 4.185 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.190 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 4.205 | 89.0% | 90.4% |
| Above 4.250 | 5.0% | 5.8% |
| Above 4.200 | 98.0% | 98.3% |
| Above 4.240 | 31.0% | 34.3% |
| Above 4.245 | 30.0% | 33.3% |
| Above 4.180 | 0.0% | 99.1% |

- Expiration: April 29, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, this market has exhibited no price volatility. The price has remained static at a 99.0% "YES" probability from its inception to the present, indicating a completely sideways trend. There have been no significant price spikes, drops, or any movements to analyze. The trading activity, totaling 557 contracts, appears to have occurred entirely on April 28, 2026, the day before the market's scheduled resolution. This suggests the market became active only when the outcome was perceived as a near certainty.

The price of 99.0% has acted as both the absolute support and resistance level, as the market has never deviated from this point. The concentration of all trading volume at this extremely high probability level indicates a powerful and unwavering market conviction. The chart suggests that participants have an overwhelming consensus, pricing the "YES" outcome as almost guaranteed. The lack of price discovery or debate implies that traders entered the market with a unified and highly confident expectation regarding the resolution.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the average regular gas price for the United States is strictly greater than $4.230 on April 29, 2026, according to AAA. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Trading opens on April 28, 2026, at 8:50 am EDT and closes at 11:59 pm EDT the same day, with a projected payout on April 29, 2026, at 10:05 am EDT. The outcome is verified using data from AAA.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 4.130 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $557 | $557 |
| Above 4.135 | 98% | 99% | 99% | $556 | $556 |
| Above 4.140 | 98% | 99% | 99% | $556 | $556 |
| Above 4.145 | 98% | 99% | 99% | $556 | $556 |
| Above 4.150 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $557 | $557 |
| Above 4.155 | 98% | 99% | 99% | $556 | $556 |
| Above 4.160 | 98% | 99% | 99% | $556 | $556 |
| Above 4.165 | 98% | 99% | 97% | $656 | $656 |
| Above 4.170 | 98% | 99% | 98% | $657 | $577 |
| Above 4.175 | 99% | 100% | 98% | $657 | $657 |
| Above 4.180 | 98% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 4.185 | 98% | 99% | 99% | $125.6 | $125.6 |
| Above 4.190 | 98% | 100% | 99% | $115 | $115 |
| Above 4.195 | 98% | 100% | 99% | $604 | $604 |
| Above 4.200 | 91% | 99% | 98% | $13 | $13 |
| Above 4.205 | 89% | 96% | 89% | $105.71 | $104.71 |
| Above 4.210 | 79% | 93% | 79% | $585.84 | $371.44 |
| Above 4.215 | 59% | 60% | 59% | $527.58 | $215.61 |
| Above 4.220 | 41% | 43% | 42% | $374.46 | $239.43 |
| Above 4.225 | 40% | 42% | 42% | $1,541.67 | $1,258.7 |
| Above 4.230 | 34% | 36% | 40% | $684.87 | $523.3 |
| Above 4.235 | 18% | 19% | 28% | $404 | $397.52 |
| Above 4.240 | 10% | 12% | 31% | $4.24 | $4.24 |
| Above 4.245 | 5% | 6% | 30% | $3 | $3 |
| Above 4.250 | 5% | 6% | 5% | $19.19 | $15.19 |

## What are the 2026 global oil market supply/demand forecasts?

Q1 2026 Global Oil Deficit (EIA) | 0.3 mb/d [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm) |
OPEC+ Spare Capacity (April 2026) | Approximately 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) [[^]](https://themiddleeastinsider.com/2026/04/22/opec-spare-capacity-april-2026/) |
IEA Q1 2026 Demand Forecast | 104.5 mb/d [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026) |

**Global oil demand is expected to exceed supply in early 2026**

Global oil demand is expected to exceed supply in early 2026. Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) foresee a tighter global oil **market** throughout Q1 and Q2 2026, with demand generally surpassing available supply. For the first quarter of 2026, the IEA projects global oil demand at approximately 104.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), which would lead to a **market** deficit [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026). The EIA similarly estimates Q1 2026 global oil demand to be around 104.3 mb/d, against an anticipated supply of 104.0 mb/d, resulting in a 0.3 mb/d deficit [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm). Looking into the second quarter of 2026, the IEA forecasts demand rising to 105.1 mb/d, while the EIA projects demand at 104.9 mb/d, with both agencies anticipating the **market** to remain tight or in a marginal deficit [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026).

OPEC+ actions will critically influence the future oil **market** balance. The spare production capacity of OPEC+ and its adherence to established production quotas are pivotal factors for the global oil **market** equilibrium. As of April 2026, OPEC+ is estimated to possess approximately 5 mb/d of spare capacity, which functions as a buffer against potential **market** volatility [[^]](https://themiddleeastinsider.com/2026/04/22/opec-spare-capacity-april-2026/). The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) implemented production adjustments in April 2026, highlighting its active role in **market** management [[^]](https://opec.org/pr-detail/1756597-5-april-2026.html). Should OPEC+ members maintain consistent compliance with these quotas, it would constrain global supply, potentially exacerbating the projected **market** deficits and leading to higher oil prices [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026). Conversely, if OPEC+ opts to deploy a substantial portion of its spare capacity or if compliance with quotas weakens, this could alleviate **market** tightness and contribute to a more balanced or even an oversupplied **market** [[^]](https://themiddleeastinsider.com/2026/04/22/opec-spare-capacity-april-2026/). Therefore, the decisions made by OPEC+ regarding its production levels and the utilization of its spare capacity will be instrumental in shaping the global oil **market** throughout Q1 and Q2 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026).

## How Will US Refinery Capacity and Gasoline Production Evolve by Spring 2026?

Projected US Refinery Capacity | 17.46 million b/cd (Spring 2026, derived from [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65624)) |
Valero Benicia Refinery Closure | 170,000 b/cd (By April 2026 [[^]](https://inspectioneering.com/news/2025-04-24/11549/valero-to-shut-170000-bpd-benicia-refinery-due-to-tough-regulatory-environment)) |
Summer-Blend Gasoline Transition | Starts April 2026 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/TODAYINENERGY/detail.php?id=11031) |

**In Spring 2026, US operable refinery capacity will decrease by Spring 2026**

In Spring 2026, US operable refinery capacity will decrease by Spring 2026. The total US operable refinery capacity is projected to be approximately 17.46 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd). This figure is derived from the U.S. operable atmospheric crude oil distillation capacity of 17.63 million b/cd at the beginning of 2025, which already reflected the permanent shutdown of LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery (60,000 b/cd) in February 2025 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65624). A further significant reduction will occur with the scheduled closure of Valero's Benicia refinery, which has a capacity of 170,000 bpd, by April 2026 [[^]](https://inspectioneering.com/news/2025-04-24/11549/valero-to-shut-170000-bpd-benicia-refinery-due-to-tough-regulatory-environment). This planned closure reduces the total capacity from 17.63 million b/cd to the projected 17.46 million b/cd, with no new refining developments expected to be operational by Spring 2026 [[^]](https://energiesmedia.com/new-u-s-refining-development-america-phase/).

The summer-blend gasoline transition will affect crack spreads regionally. The mandated transition from winter-grade to summer-blend gasoline is set to commence in April 2026, requiring refiners and pipelines to begin producing and distributing the new blend to ensure its availability by the May 1 retail deadline [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/TODAYINENERGY/detail.php?id=11031). Summer-grade gasoline demands a lower Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) to minimize evaporative emissions, making its production process more complex and consequently more expensive [[^]](https://www.rossfogg.com/blog/summer-blend-gasoline-what-it-is-why-it-costs-more-and-why-it-matters/). These increased production costs typically result in higher wholesale gasoline prices and can lead to wider crack spreads. Regional markets may experience these effects more acutely, especially those subject to stricter reformulated gasoline (RFG) requirements or highly dependent on specific refineries [[^]](https://www.rossfogg.com/blog/summer-blend-gasoline-what-it-is-why-it-costs-more-and-why-it-matters/).

## How are EVs and demand destruction impacting US oil production?

Global Oil Avoided by EVs | 2.3 million barrels daily by 2025 [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-18/electric-vehicles-avoided-use-of-2-3-million-barrels-of-oil-daily-in-2025) |
US Gasoline Consumption | Plunging per-capita consumption [[^]](https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/04/u-s-demand-for-gasoline-faces-long-term-structural-problem-plunging-per-capita-consumption/) |
US Crude Oil Production Forecast | Near 2025 record levels before slight decrease in 2026 [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66844) |

**US gasoline demand faces significant reduction from EVs and mobility shifts**

US gasoline demand faces significant reduction from EVs and mobility shifts. Globally, electric vehicles are projected to avoid the use of 2.3 million barrels of oil daily by 2025 [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-18/electric-vehicles-avoided-use-of-2-3-million-barrels-of-oil-daily-in-2025). Within the US, gasoline demand confronts a long-term structural problem with plunging per-capita consumption, indicating a fundamental shift in consumption habits that extends beyond merely electric vehicle adoption [[^]](https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/04/u-s-demand-for-gasoline-faces-long-term-structural-problem-plunging-per-capita-consumption/).

US crude oil production will plateau before a slight 2026 decrease. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US crude oil production will remain near 2025 record levels in the near term [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67045), though it anticipates a slight decrease in 2026 [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66844). Concurrently, reports indicate a slowdown in US shale activity, leading to discussions on whether this represents a cyclical trough or a structural twilight for the industry [[^]](https://www.pillarfourcapital.com/post/q1-2025-research-theme-us-shale-activity-slowing-cyclical-trough-or-structural-twilight).

Demand destruction and supply dynamics are rebalancing the energy **market**. These converging trends suggest that demand-side destruction is a substantial factor influencing **market** rebalancing alongside evolving supply-side dynamics. While a precise quantitative offset is not explicitly detailed, the structural decline in US gasoline consumption [[^]](https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/04/u-s-demand-for-gasoline-faces-long-term-structural-problem-plunging-per-capita-consumption/) coupled with the significant global oil avoidance from EVs [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-18/electric-vehicles-avoided-use-of-2-3-million-barrels-of-oil-daily-in-2025) indicates a diminishing demand for oil products as US crude oil production is projected to plateau and then slightly decrease in 2026 [[^]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66844), with slowing activity noted in shale basins [[^]](https://www.pillarfourcapital.com/post/q1-2025-research-theme-us-shale-activity-slowing-cyclical-trough-or-structural-twilight).

## What is the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Refill Strategy?

Refill Price Target | At or below $79 per barrel [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve) |
Refill Timeline | Through 2025 [[^]](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Set-to-Slowly-Refill-SPR-as-Crude-Buys-Extend-Into-2025.html) |
Estimated Replenishment Cost | Approximately $20 billion [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-energy-chief-seek-20-billion-refill-oil-reserve-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-03-07/) |

**The US Department of Energy (DOE) is steadily refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) through 2025**

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is steadily refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) through 2025. This replenishment strategy involves a phased approach, with crude oil purchases planned to extend into 2025 [[^]](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Set-to-Slowly-Refill-SPR-as-Crude-Buys-Extend-Into-2025.html). The DOE targets an acquisition price of **$79** per barrel or less to ensure value for taxpayers [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve). For instance, contracts awarded in December 2022 secured 3 million barrels for February 2023 delivery at an average price of **$77.66** per barrel [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve). The comprehensive effort to fully restore the SPR is projected to cost an estimated **$20** billion and will span several years [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-energy-chief-seek-20-billion-refill-oil-reserve-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-03-07/).

Research does not indicate future SPR releases for price spikes or elections. The available research does not provide specific information regarding the likelihood of the current administration authorizing additional SPR releases in response to price spikes, particularly ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. While the SPR is designed to address severe energy supply disruptions, current sources do not contain direct statements from the administration on potential future releases in relation to election timing or general price fluctuations [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/11/trump-strategic-oil-reserve-gas-prices-iran-war). Discussions found concerning SPR releases in 2026 generally describe hypothetical scenarios that are unrelated to the current administration's actions or election-driven decisions [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/11/trump-strategic-oil-reserve-gas-prices-iran-war).

## What Is the WTI May/June 2026 Futures Curve Structure?

June 2026 WTI Futures Price | $79.79 - $79.80 [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CLM26) |
May/June 2026 WTI Curve Structure | Deep contango [[^]](https://commodity-board.com/wti-and-brent-rally-on-tight-prompt-supply-but-deep-contango-flags-long-term-risks/) |
Key OPEC+ Meeting Dates 2025 | March 18, June 1, November 24 [[^]](https://opec.org/pr-detail/557-03-april-2025.html) |

**WTI futures for mid-2026 are currently in deep contango**

WTI futures for mid-2026 are currently in deep contango. The WTI crude oil futures curve for May/June 2026 is presently characterized by deep contango, meaning that prices for future deliveries are higher than nearer-term contracts [[^]](https://commodity-board.com/wti-and-brent-rally-on-tight-prompt-supply-but-deep-contango-flags-long-term-risks/). Specifically, the Crude Oil WTI Jun '26 futures (CLM26) have been quoted around **$79.79** to **$79.80** [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CLM26). This **market** structure, where future prices are elevated, often signals long-term risks, potentially implying expectations of increased future supply or decreased future demand relative to current levels [[^]](https://commodity-board.com/wti-and-brent-rally-on-tight-prompt-supply-but-deep-contango-flags-long-term-risks/).

OPEC+ meetings in 2025 will significantly influence future oil prices. These crucial events can significantly influence the WTI futures curve due to their decisions on oil production levels [[^]](https://opec.org/pr-detail/557-03-april-2025.html). Several key decision dates for OPEC+ meetings are scheduled for 2025, which could alter the long-term outlook, including the WTI May/June 2026 contracts. These important gatherings are set for March 18, 2025 (188th Meeting) [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1360558-05-april-2025.html), June 1, 2025 (189th Meeting) [[^]](https://opec.org/pr-detail/557-03-april-2025.html), and November 24, 2025 (190th Meeting) [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/576-01-october-2025.html). Policy adjustments made during these conferences directly impact global oil supply, thereby affecting the structure of the futures curve across all delivery periods.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 29, 2026
- **Expiration:** May 06, 2026
- **Closes:** April 29, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 17 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXAAAGASD-26APR28-4.200: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXAAAGASD-26APR28-4.190: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXAAAGASD-26APR28-4.180: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXAAAGASD-26APR28-4.170: YES (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXAAAGASD-26APR28-4.160: YES (Apr 28, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.