# Jet fuel prices for the week ending April 24, 2026

the week ending April 24, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Oil and energy

HTML: /markets/economics/oil-and-energy/jet-fuel-prices-for-the-week-ending-april-24-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect jet fuel prices for the week ending April 24, 2026, to be above 3.40, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Elevated Q1 2026 crude oil prices exerted upward pressure.** - Global air travel demand showed robust year-over-year growth early 2026.
- U.S. jet fuel stocks projected significantly lower than historical averages.
- EU's ReFuelEU mandates **2%** Sustainable Aviation Fuel blend by 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** and **market** align at **99%** **probability**, with 1.0x payout, reflecting upward supply and demand pressures.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 3.60ㅤ | 96.0% | 98.0% | Model higher by 2.0pp |
| Above 3.90ㅤ | 81.0% | 80.9% | Market higher by 0.1pp |
| Above 3.95ㅤ | 20.0% | 19.7% | Market higher by 0.3pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 3.60ㅤ | 96.0% | 98.0% |
| Above 3.90ㅤ | 81.0% | 80.9% |
| Above 3.95ㅤ | 20.0% | 19.7% |
| Above 3.80ㅤ | 97.0% | 97.0% |
| Above 3.70ㅤ | 98.0% | 98.0% |
| Above 3.75ㅤ | 98.0% | 98.0% |
| Above 3.50ㅤ | 95.0% | 99.0% |
| Above 3.85ㅤ | 88.0% | 87.9% |
| Above 3.55ㅤ | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| Above 3.65ㅤ | 96.0% | 98.0% |
| Above 3.40ㅤ | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| Above 3.45ㅤ | 99.0% | 99.0% |

- Expiration: April 29, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market exhibits a strong and consistent upward trend, starting at a 72.0% probability and climbing to its current price of 99.0%. The most notable price action occurred over a short period near the end of the market's timeline. A significant spike of 11.0 percentage points was recorded on April 22, 2026, followed by an even larger 15.0 percentage point spike just two days later on April 24. The provided context does not offer any specific news or developments that would explain the catalyst for these sharp upward movements.

The initial price of 72.0% acted as a clear support level before the rapid ascent. The subsequent spikes established new support levels first at 83.0% and later at 98.0%. With a total volume of 326 contracts traded, the market saw a moderate level of activity. Overall, the price chart reflects a strong and growing market sentiment that the event would resolve as "YES." The final price of 99.0% indicates that, by the end of trading, participants had reached a near-unanimous consensus on the outcome.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 3.60ㅤ

#### 📈 April 24, 2026: 16.0pp spike

Price increased from 82.0% to 98.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Above 3.50ㅤ

#### 📈 April 23, 2026: 21.0pp spike

Price increased from 74.0% to 95.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 22, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 60.0% to 74.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This prediction market resolves to "Yes" if the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending April 24, 2026, is above $3.95 per gallon. Otherwise, it resolves to "No."

The market opened on April 22, 2026, and will close early if the relevant economic data from FRED (series WJFUELUSGULF) is released, or by April 29, 2026, at 12:59 pm EDT, whichever occurs first. Payouts are projected to occur 30 minutes after the market closes.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 3.40ㅤ | 95% | 99% | 99% | $326 | $180 |
| Above 3.45ㅤ | 96% | 100% | 99% | $110 | $55 |
| Above 3.50ㅤ | 95% | 100% | 95% | $904 | $629 |
| Above 3.55ㅤ | 96% | 100% | 99% | $738 | $414 |
| Above 3.60ㅤ | 95% | 100% | 96% | $2,370 | $1,569 |
| Above 3.65ㅤ | 95% | 100% | 96% | $468 | $343 |
| Above 3.70ㅤ | 95% | 100% | 98% | $1,188 | $864 |
| Above 3.75ㅤ | 97% | 100% | 98% | $1,039 | $726 |
| Above 3.80ㅤ | 94% | 97% | 97% | $1,386.12 | $1,205 |
| Above 3.85ㅤ | 88% | 96% | 88% | $882.96 | $659.9 |
| Above 3.90ㅤ | 81% | 83% | 81% | $2,284.15 | $1,471.93 |
| Above 3.95ㅤ | 20% | 28% | 20% | $1,810.31 | $1,000.48 |

## What Influenced Crude Oil Futures in Early 2026?

WTI March 2026 Futures | $94.60 per barrel [[^]](https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/crude-oil-wti?dr=2026-03) |
Brent January 2026 Futures | $99.98 per barrel [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/QAF26) |
OPEC+ March 2026 Production Increase | 206,000 barrels per day [[^]](https://themiddleeastinsider.com/2026/03/13/opec-production-decision-march-2026/) |

**Q1 2026 crude oil futures indicated sharply elevated prices**

Q1 2026 crude oil futures indicated sharply elevated prices. Crude oil and petroleum product prices experienced a sharp increase in the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424). Forward curves for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures reflected this elevated pricing. Specifically, WTI crude oil futures for March 2026 were approximately **$94.60** per barrel [[^]](https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/crude-oil-wti?dr=2026-03), while Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 were priced around **$99.98** per barrel [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/QAF26). The overall shape of the crude oil forward curve demonstrated front-end strength, yet showed softness in longer-dated contracts [[^]](https://commodity-board.com/crude-oil-curve-tightens-front-end-strength-long-dated-softness/).

These prices reflected **market** expectations of tight supply or strong demand. The **market** potentially factored in a continuation of disciplined supply management by OPEC+. However, significant OPEC+ decisions in March 2026 included adding 206,000 barrels per day (b/d) to production [[^]](https://themiddleeastinsider.com/2026/03/13/opec-production-decision-march-2026/). This decision, occurring towards the end of Q1, likely influenced the subsequent flattening and slump in futures observed by April 2026 [[^]](https://commodity-board.com/crude-oil-futures-tumble-as-curve-flattens-after-war-driven-spike/). The **market** adjusted to this increased supply following an initial "war-driven spike" [[^]](https://commodity-board.com/crude-oil-futures-tumble-as-curve-flattens-after-war-driven-spike/).

## How Did Global ASKs Grow and Airline Capacity Change in Early 2026?

Jan 2026 Global ASK Growth | 4.2% [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-03-02-02/), [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-market-analysis-january-2026/) |
Feb 2026 Global ASK Growth | 5.7% [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-03-31-01/), [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-market-analysis-february-2026/) |
Delta 737 MAX 10 Deliveries Start | 2027 [[^]](https://www.enginecowl.com/delta-air-lines-fleet-plans-2026/) |

**Global Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) showed robust year-over-year growth early in 2026**

Global Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) showed robust year-over-year growth early in 2026. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global ASKs increased by **4.2%** in January 2026 compared to January 2025 [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-03-02-02/), [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-**market**-analysis-january-2026/). This upward trend continued into February 2026, with a **5.7%** rise in global ASKs year-over-year [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-03-31-01/), [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-**market**-analysis-february-2026/). Overall, the average year-over-year growth for the first two months of 2026 was approximately **4.95%**.

Major airlines have varied capacity impacts from fleet adjustments. For example, Delta Air Lines has revised its fleet plans, now expecting the delivery of 27 Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft to commence in 2027, rather than the previously anticipated 2026 [[^]](https://www.enginecowl.com/delta-air-lines-fleet-plans-2026/). This deferral is projected to temper Delta's overall capacity growth. In contrast, Lufthansa's fleet strategy includes the scheduled delivery of new wide-body aircraft, such as Airbus A350s and Boeing 787s, during the first half of 2026 [[^]](https://aviationoutlook.substack.com/p/lufthansa-fleet-strategy-route-network-company-analysis-report). These additions are intended to support long-haul expansion and contribute to an increase in Lufthansa's ASKs.

## What is the global jet fuel market outlook for Q1 2026?

Jet Fuel Futures Pricing | Futures contracts available for Q1 2026 delivery, but specific pricing not provided [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/refined-products/singapore-jet-kerosene-platts-dubai-crack-spread-swap-futures.html) |
US Refinery Capacity | Closures expected to tighten fuel stocks by 2026 [[^]](https://www.bicmagazine.com/industry/refining-petrochem/refinery-closures-impact-us-fuel-supply-2026/) |
Global Refinery Outlook | Mix of closures and capacity additions by 2026 [[^]](https://www.oilandgasadvancement.com/news/ina-completes-rijeka-refinery-upgrade-project-to-up-output/) |

**The futures market offers mechanisms to price the jet fuel crack spread, specifically for delivery in Q1 2026**

The futures **market** offers mechanisms to price the jet fuel crack spread, specifically for delivery in Q1 2026. Contracts such as the Singapore Jet Kerosene (Platts) vs. Dubai (Platts) Crack Spread Swap Futures and the Jet Fuel Crack – Singapore Jet Kerosene Cargoes (Platts) vs Dubai 1st Line (Platts) Future are traded on exchanges like CME Group and ICE [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/refined-products/singapore-jet-kerosene-platts-dubai-crack-spread-swap-futures.html). These instruments facilitate the pricing of the margin between jet fuel and crude oil for future dates. Additionally, Jet Fuel Cargoes CIF NWE (Platts) Crack Spread futures contracts are also available [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/refined-products/jet-fuel-cargoes-cif-nwe-platts-crack-spread.html). While these platforms allow for Q1 2026 delivery pricing, the provided sources do not contain specific pricing data for that future quarter.

The global refinery landscape is set to undergo significant shifts by Q1 2026, characterized by both closures and capacity expansions. In the U.S., refinery closures are anticipated to tighten fuel stocks in 2026 amidst rising demand [[^]](https://www.bicmagazine.com/industry/refining-petrochem/refinery-closures-impact-us-fuel-supply-2026/). Globally, there are ongoing reports of refinery rationalization, with some facilities facing potential closure by 2026 [[^]](https://www.woodmac.com/reports/refining-and-oil-products-global-refinery-closure-threat-update-2026-full-data-access-150449029). Conversely, the industry also expects scheduled capacity additions and upgrades, such as the upgrade project completed by INA at its Rijeka refinery, which aims to increase output [[^]](https://www.oilandgasadvancement.com/news/ina-completes-rijeka-refinery-upgrade-project-to-up-output/). This dynamic environment of facility closures and new or expanded capacity indicates a rebalancing of global refining infrastructure that will impact fuel supply by Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.globenewswire.com/de/news-release/2026/04/09/3271090/0/en/Conventional-Refineries-Industry-Report-2026-Capacity-and-Capital-Expenditure-Outlook-with-Details-of-All-Operating-and-Upcoming-Refineries-2020-2025-2025-2030.html).

## What are the EU's 2026 SAF blending mandates and capacity challenges?

2026 EU SAF Mandate | 2% minimum SAF blend [[^]](http://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/air/environment/refueleu-aviation_en) |
SAF Cost vs. Jet Fuel | 2 to 5 times more expensive [[^]](https://energy-solutions.co/articles/sub/sustainable-aviation-fuel-hefa-vs-alcohol-to-jet-economics) |
Global SAF Capacity 2026 | 2-3 billion gallons per year [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-04/) |

**ReFuelEU mandates a 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel blend by 2026**

ReFuelEU mandates a **2%** Sustainable Aviation Fuel blend by 2026. Under the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, a minimum of **2%** Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) must be made available for all flights departing from EU airports for the 2026 compliance year [[^]](http://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/air/environment/refueleu-aviation_en). This initial requirement is part of a broader strategy to incrementally increase SAF blending, aiming for **70%** by 2050 [[^]](http://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/air/environment/refueleu-aviation_en). The mandated **2%** volume directly correlates with the overall jet fuel demand in 2026.

SAF production costs remain significantly higher than traditional jet fuel. The estimated cost of SAF is 2 to 5 times greater than conventional jet fuel, influenced by the chosen feedstock and production pathway [[^]](https://energy-solutions.co/articles/sub/sustainable-aviation-fuel-hefa-vs-alcohol-to-jet-economics). Specifically for 2026, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) SAF is forecast to cost between **$1.50** and **$3.50** per gallon, while Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) SAF is projected to range from **$2.00** to **$4.50** per gallon, prior to any subsidies or tax credits [[^]](https://energy-solutions.co/articles/sub/sustainable-aviation-fuel-hefa-vs-alcohol-to-jet-economics). This substantial cost disparity poses a significant economic challenge for widespread SAF adoption without robust policy support.

Global SAF production capacity will fall short of demand by 2026. Projected global SAF production capacity is expected to reach approximately 2 to 3 billion gallons per year by 2026 [[^]](https://rhg.com/research/seeking-alternatives-how-fast-can-sustainable-aviation-fuel-scale/). However, this volume constitutes less than **1%** of the total global jet fuel demand, which surpasses 100 billion gallons annually [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-04/). Industry experts, including the International Air Transport Association (IATA), have observed a deceleration in SAF production growth, underscoring the necessity for intensified investment to bridge the potential gap between mandated volumes and available capacity by 2026, particularly as more advanced e-SAF mandates approach [[^]](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-04/).

## How Do Q1 2026 U.S. Jet Fuel Stocks Compare Historically?

Forecasted U.S. Jet Fuel Stocks Q1 2026 | 37.8 million barrels (EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2026) [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf) |
5-Year Historical Average March Stocks | 39.95 million barrels (EIA historical data 2020-2024) [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_typ_a_epjk_sae_mbbl_m.htm) |
Variance from Average | 2.15 million barrels lower, approximately 5.4% (EIA analysis) [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf) |

**U.S**

U.S. jet fuel stocks are projected to reach 37.8 million barrels by the end of Q1 2026. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from April 2026, U.S. stocks of 'Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel' are specifically forecasted to total 37.8 million barrels for March 2026 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf). These projections offer an outlook on expected petroleum product inventory levels as the first quarter concludes [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf).

Historical data shows a five-year average of 39.95 million barrels for end-of-quarter stocks. The 5-year average for 'Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel' stocks at the end of March, covering the period from 2020 to 2024, is approximately 39.95 million barrels [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_typ_a_epjk_sae_mbbl_m.htm). This average is derived from the EIA's historical monthly stock data, with individual March figures ranging from 41.76 million barrels in 2020 to 38.71 million barrels in 2024 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_typ_a_epjk_sae_mbbl_m.htm).

The forecast anticipates a **5.4%** decrease compared to the historical average. The projected U.S. 'Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel' stock level of 37.8 million barrels for the end of Q1 2026 is approximately 2.15 million barrels lower than the 5-year historical average for March, which is 39.95 million barrels [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf). This suggests the EIA expects jet fuel inventories to be roughly **5.4%** below the average levels observed at the end of the first quarter over the most recent five complete years of historical data [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 06, 2026
- **Closes:** April 29, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 12 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 3 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXJETFUEL-26APR22-T3.60: YES (Apr 22, 2026)
- KXJETFUEL-26APR22-T3.65: YES (Apr 22, 2026)
- KXJETFUEL-26APR22-T4.15: NO (Apr 22, 2026)
- KXJETFUEL-26APR22-T4.10: NO (Apr 22, 2026)
- KXJETFUEL-26APR22-T4.05: NO (Apr 22, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.