# More white-collar layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

In 2026

Updated: April 22, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Layoffs
Jobs & Economy

HTML: /markets/economics/layoffs/more-white-collar-layoffs-in-20-26-than-in-2025/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing: 'Yes' (more white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025) at **60.3%** **model** vs **50.0%** **market**, suggesting a higher likelihood of increased white-collar layoffs in 2026 compared to 2025.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Consistent GDP growth projected for late 2025 and early 2026.** - Tech and Financials sectors broadly implement cost-cutting and AI efficiency.
- Professional and Business Services job openings remained remarkably stable in late 2024.
- ISM Services PMI activity component showed fluctuating trends in Q2 2025.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **60.3%** **probability** (2.0x payout) vs 50c **market** attributes higher likelihood to ongoing AI efficiency initiatives.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 50.0% | 60.3% | Accelerated automation and AI adoption could displace more white-collar jobs in 2026. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 60.3% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 50.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +10.3pp
- Expected Return: +20.7%
- R-Score: 1.03
- Total Volume: $39,669.04
- 24h Volume: $48.64
- Open Interest: $9,770.7

- Expiration: March 1, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the chart data, this market is exhibiting a classic sideways or range-bound trend, indicating significant uncertainty among traders. The price has been confined to an extremely narrow channel between 47% and 50% since its inception. This lack of a clear directional trend suggests the market is evenly divided on whether white-collar layoffs will be higher in 2026 compared to 2025. The current price of 50% represents the top of this trading range, a key resistance level that the market has repeatedly tested but not decisively broken through. The market's inability to establish a firm conviction either way points to a lack of consensus on the future economic outlook for white-collar jobs.

Since no specific news or external context has been provided, the minor fluctuations within this range cannot be attributed to any particular event. The price movements appear to be driven by shifts in trader sentiment within a balanced market rather than reactions to new fundamental data. Volume patterns are inconsistent, with bursts of activity, such as the 242 contracts traded on April 15th when the price moved to 50%, followed by periods of zero activity. The significant total volume of over 20,000 contracts shows considerable interest and capital has been deployed, but the stable price action implies this capital is evenly split between "Yes" and "No" positions, reinforcing the sense of equilibrium and indecision.

Overall, market sentiment is neutral and highly uncertain, effectively pricing the outcome as a coin toss. The tight consolidation around the 50% mark implies that for every trader who believes economic conditions will worsen for white-collar workers in 2026, there is another who expects conditions to improve or stabilize. The chart suggests the market is waiting for a significant economic catalyst or new data to break the current deadlock and establish a clearer directional trend. Until then, sentiment remains perfectly balanced on the question's outcome.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the total layoffs and discharges in the Professional and Business Services sector during calendar year 2026 exceed 5,497,000; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified using FRED series JTU540099LDL.

The market opens on March 31, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT. It will close early upon the first BLS release of the December 2026 layoffs and discharges value for Professional and Business Services, if that release determines the outcome; otherwise, it closes by March 1, 2027, at 10:00 am EST. Payout is projected for one hour after closing.

## Market Discussion

The discussion primarily expresses skepticism that 2026 will see more white-collar layoffs than 2025. Traders arguing "No" cite lower layoff figures in early 2025 compared to the previous year and believe the Professional and Business Services sector is more resilient to AI-driven job cuts. There are no explicit arguments provided for the "Yes" position within the discussion content.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 48% | 50% | 50% | $39,669.04 | $9,770.7 |

## What are the forecasted US real GDP growth rates for 2025-2026?

Real GDP Growth Forecast Q4 2025 | 1.9% (First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters) [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf) |
Real GDP Growth Forecast Q1 2026 | 1.9% (First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters) [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf) |
Earlier Real GDP Growth Forecast Q1 2025 | 2.1% (First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters) [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf) |

**Professional forecasters project consistent GDP growth for late 2025 and early 2026**

Professional forecasters project consistent GDP growth for late 2025 and early 2026. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates a consensus (median) forecast of **1.9%** for the annualized quarter-over-quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf). This median forecast for real GDP growth remains at **1.9%** for the subsequent quarter, Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf).

This projected growth marks a slight deceleration from earlier 2025 forecasts. The Q1 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters initially projected **2.1%** growth for both Q1 and Q2 2025, and **2.0%** for Q3 2025 [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf). Although a modest slowdown is anticipated from the beginning of 2025, the **1.9%** forecasts for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 suggest continued, albeit slightly slower, economic expansion during this period [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf).

## When Will AI-Driven Efficiency and Cost-Cutting Peak in 2025-2026?

Citigroup Headcount | Net reductions by year-end 2025 (Citigroup) [[^]](http://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/15/citigroup-c-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/) |
J.P. Morgan Efficiency | Gains materializing late 2025 (J.P. Morgan Chase) [[^]](https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/4th-quarter/4q24-earnings-transcript.pdf) |
AI-Driven Efficiency Acceleration | Significant in 2026 (J.P. Morgan Chase) [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/15/j-p-morgan-chase-jpm-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=fe7f9f8f-2d1a-4c20-8110-3adaea58fba4) |

**Technology and Financials sectors broadly implement cost-cutting and AI efficiency initiatives**

Technology and Financials sectors broadly implement cost-cutting and AI efficiency initiatives. Companies in these sectors are implementing cost-cutting programs and AI-driven efficiency initiatives that are expected to span both 2025 and 2026. While some efficiency gains are projected to begin materializing in late 2025, a significant acceleration of these benefits, particularly those powered by AI, is anticipated to continue throughout 2026. Targeted workforce adjustments are also noted for 2025.

Multiple companies plan significant efficiency and cost reductions for 2025. For 2025, various companies have outlined specific plans. Sabre is pursuing cost efficiency initiatives and AI-driven solutions for operational improvements [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/18/sabre-sabr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/). IBM expects significant improvements in operational efficiency and cost optimization through AI-driven automation, alongside targeted workforce adjustments [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBM.VI/earnings/IBM.VI-Q4-2025-earnings_call-401410.html). Citigroup's restructuring efforts are set to continue yielding benefits, with projections for further efficiency-related severance costs and net headcount reductions by year-end 2025 [[^]](http://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/15/citigroup-c-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/). J.P. Morgan Chase anticipates efficiency gains to materialize more significantly in late 2025, driven by disciplined expense management and AI investments [[^]](https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/4th-quarter/4q24-earnings-transcript.pdf).

Efficiency initiatives, especially AI-driven, are expected to accelerate into 2026. Looking into 2026, these initiatives are largely expected to persist and often accelerate. Sabre's cost efficiency and AI-driven improvements are slated to continue [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/18/sabre-sabr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/), as is IBM's AI-driven automation for operational expenditure reduction [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBM.VI/earnings/IBM.VI-Q4-2025-earnings_call-401410.html). Citigroup's transformation and efficiency efforts are also expected to yield benefits throughout 2026 [[^]](http://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/15/citigroup-c-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/). J.P. Morgan Chase projects an acceleration of AI-driven efficiency gains in 2026, leading to significant cost savings [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/15/j-p-morgan-chase-jpm-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=fe7f9f8f-2d1a-4c20-8110-3adaea58fba4). This focus on AI-driven efficiency initiatives is identified as a key theme for 2025 outlooks across the S&P 500, indicating a widespread strategic shift [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/1discountbrokerage/article/marketminute-2026-2-27-big-techs-heavy-lifting-s-and-p-500-q4-earnings-surpass-8-growth-amid-ai-capex-anxiety).

## What is the S&P 500 IT sector's profit margin outlook for 2025?

Projected 12-month forward net profit margin (S&P 500 IT) | 19.5% (as of January 7, 2025) [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf) |
Estimated net profit margin (S&P 500 IT, CY 2024) | 18.9% [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf) |
Expected change in net profit margin (S&P 500 IT) | 0.6% increase (2024 to forward 2025) [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf) |

**FactSet projected the S&P 500 Information Technology sector's forward net profit margin**

FactSet projected the S&P 500 Information Technology sector's forward net profit margin. As of early January 2025, FactSet calculated the 12-month forward net profit margin for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector to be **19.5%** [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf). This projection, which reflected data available on January 7, 2025, was considered the closest available calculation to the requested January 1, 2025, date [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf). These figures are regularly published as part of FactSet's "Earnings Insight" reports, which analyze corporate earnings and profitability [[^]](https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight).

The sector's projected margin indicates slight expansion from 2024 levels. Comparing this **19.5%** forward projection to the estimated net profit margin of **18.9%** for the Information Technology sector in calendar year 2024, FactSet's calculations at the start of 2025 anticipated a modest expansion [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf). This slight increase from 2024 suggested the sector was not expected to experience a significant decline in profitability over the subsequent 12 months [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf).

No immediate margin pressure suggests a stable employment outlook. Based on these projections, there was no indication of the immediate margin pressure that typically precedes widespread white-collar layoff announcements later in 2025 or into 2026 for the Information Technology sector [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf). The sector was forecasted to maintain or slightly improve its profitability, pointing to a stable outlook for its net profit generation [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025.pdf).

## How Stable Were Professional & Business Services Job Openings in 2024?

June 2024 Job Openings Rate | 6.2% [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_07302024.htm) |
November 2024 Job Openings Rate | 6.3% [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_01072025.htm) |
December 2024 Job Openings Rate | 6.1% [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_02042025.htm) |

**The Professional and Business Services job openings rate remained remarkably stable throughout the second half of 2024, consistently fluctuating between 6.1% and 6.3%**

The Professional and Business Services job openings rate remained remarkably stable throughout the second half of 2024, consistently fluctuating between **6.1%** and **6.3%**. Specifically, the job openings rate was recorded at **6.2%** in June [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_07302024.htm), July [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jolts-july2024-supp-toc.htm), and September 2024 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_10292024.htm). It then experienced a slight decrease to **6.1%** in October 2024 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_12032024.htm), followed by an increase to **6.3%** in November 2024 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_01072025.htm), before concluding the year at **6.1%** in December 2024 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_02042025.htm).

This stability suggests companies may be engaging in labor hoarding. This trend is further supported by analyses of the December 2024 JOLTS report, which characterized the overall job **market** as "resting on a stable foundation" [[^]](https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/december-2024-jolts-report-resting-on-a-stable-foundation/). While job openings in the professional and business services sector saw a marginal dip in December, the broader analysis indicated a steady demand for labor [[^]](https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/december-2024-jolts-report-resting-on-a-stable-foundation/). This pattern implies that companies within this supersector may have completed their workforce adjustments and are now retaining talent, thereby diminishing the likelihood of accelerated layoffs in 2026.

## Did ISM Services PMI Signal Sustained Contraction in Q2 2025?

May 2025 Services PMI | 49.9% [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-49-9-may-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302472478.html) |
June 2025 Services PMI | 50.8% [[^]](http://www2.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-50-8-june-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302497305.html) |
Contraction/Expansion Threshold | 50 points (ISM Services PMI) [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ism_non_manufacturing_business_activity_index) |

**The ISM Services PMI business activity component showed fluctuating trends in Q2 2025**

The ISM Services PMI business activity component showed fluctuating trends in Q2 2025. The initial premise for this research posited that a sustained reading below the 50-point threshold, signifying a contraction in the service sector, would indicate substantial white-collar layoff pain in the subsequent 6-12 months, specifically late 2025 and into 2026. Given that the service sector represents the heart of white-collar employment, a consistent contraction in this index would serve as a crucial forward-looking indicator for labor **market** distress.

The Services PMI dipped into contraction in May 2025. Specifically, the Services PMI registered **49.9%** [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-49-9-may-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302472478.html) in May 2025, signaling a contraction within the service sector. However, the index subsequently rebounded in June 2025 to **50.8%** [[^]](http://www2.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-50-8-june-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302497305.html), indicating a return to expansion. Data for the business activity component for April 2025 was not available in the provided sources, preventing a complete quarterly assessment.

The condition for impending bulk layoff pain was not met. Although the Services PMI briefly fell into contraction in May, its return to expansion in June meant that a sustained reading below 50 across the entirety of Q2 2025 did not occur. Consequently, the strong indication of widespread layoff pain in late 2025 and into 2026, based on this specific defined condition, was not triggered.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** March 31, 2027
- **Closes:** March 01, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.