# Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026

For the week ending Apr 25, 2026

Updated: April 28, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Jobs & Economy

HTML: /markets/economics/jobs-economy/initial-jobless-claims-for-the-week-ending-april-25-2026/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds (97.6%) than the market (0.0%) for at least 185,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026.** This is driven by a fresh wave of layoffs across multiple sectors and slowing services growth.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Fresh layoffs across tech, manufacturing, and transportation occurred in April.** - Manufacturing sector employment contracted according to March 2026 ISM reports.
- Slowing services sector growth contributes to the overall weakening job **market**.
- Several states implemented changes to unemployment insurance systems by 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **97.6%** for increased claims versus 0c **market** shows a +97.6pp gap and 0.0x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 210000 | 36.0% | 48.6% | Model higher by 12.6pp |
| At least 205000 | 66.0% | 76.8% | Model higher by 10.8pp |
| At least 215000 | 16.0% | 28.1% | Model higher by 12.1pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 210000 | 36.0% | 48.6% |
| At least 205000 | 66.0% | 76.8% |
| At least 215000 | 16.0% | 28.1% |
| At least 220000 | 19.0% | 28.1% |
| At least 225000 | 9.0% | 14.1% |
| At least 200000 | 80.0% | 87.3% |
| At least 230000 | 3.0% | 4.9% |
| At least 195000 | 96.0% | 97.6% |
| At least 185000 | 0.0% | 97.6% |
| At least 190000 | 0.0% | 97.6% |

- Expiration: April 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market opened with a very high probability of a "YES" outcome, starting at 94.0%. The price has since remained in a high and relatively narrow band, with the current price at 96.0%. Despite a wide historical range noted from 3.0% to 96.0%, the overall trend has been sideways, with the price consistently reflecting a strong expectation for the event to resolve as "YES". The most significant movement in the provided sample data is a slight dip to 93.0% before rising to the current level of 96.0%.

The primary technical indicator in this market is the trading volume, which stands at zero contracts traded. This complete absence of activity is critical to the analysis. It indicates that the observed price fluctuations are not the result of trades between participants reacting to news or changing expectations. Without any external context provided and no trading volume, the price movements cannot be attributed to any specific economic developments or shifts in trader sentiment. The changes in price are likely due to algorithmic adjustments by a market maker or shifts in unfilled orders rather than active trading.

Due to the lack of trading volume, it is not possible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels; the price points have not been tested or validated by market activity. While the chart's price level suggests extremely high market confidence in a "YES" resolution, this sentiment is not substantiated by any financial commitment from traders. The market shows a theoretical price but reflects no actual market conviction or collective wisdom at this time.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: At least 195000

#### 📈 April 27, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 87.0% to 97.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: At least 205000

#### 📉 April 25, 2026: 20.0pp drop

Price decreased from 84.0% to 64.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 23, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 72.0% to 82.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026, are at least 210,000, and "No" if they are fewer, with the outcome verified by the Department of Labor. The market will close and expire early once the outcome is known, otherwise by April 30, 2026, at 8:25 am EDT, with projected payouts occurring 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 185000 | 96% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| At least 190000 | 91% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| At least 195000 | 89% | 96% | 96% | $59.93 | $59.93 |
| At least 200000 | 82% | 83% | 80% | $1,428.12 | $1,121 |
| At least 205000 | 62% | 67% | 66% | $5,244.77 | $4,179.41 |
| At least 210000 | 42% | 44% | 36% | $6,113.65 | $3,650.15 |
| At least 215000 | 16% | 18% | 16% | $5,071.22 | $4,089.91 |
| At least 220000 | 10% | 18% | 19% | $3,695.01 | $1,866.42 |
| At least 225000 | 9% | 10% | 9% | $1,533.44 | $1,169.92 |
| At least 230000 | 3% | 8% | 3% | $169 | $153 |

## What U.S. Sectors Experienced Significant Layoffs in April 2026?

Total National Job Cuts | 18,340 (April 2026) [[^]](https://warnfirehose.com/blog/2026/04) |
Technology Sector Job Cuts | 3,590 (April 2026) [[^]](https://warnfirehose.com/blog/2026/04) |
California Job Cuts | 3,060 (April 2026) [[^]](https://www.warnfirehose.com/blog/2026/04/california) |

**A new wave of U.S**

A new wave of U.S. layoffs emerged in Q1 2026, with WARN Act notices indicating a significant trend of job reductions scheduled for April 2026, particularly across technology, manufacturing, and transportation sectors [[^]](https://thousif.org/fresh-u-s-layoff-wave-hits-tech-auto-and-retail-in-april-2026/). Nationally, a total of 118 WARN notices were issued for April 2026, resulting in 18,340 job cuts across various industries [[^]](https://warnfirehose.com/blog/2026/04). Specifically, the Information & Technology sector saw 22 WARN notices affecting 3,590 employees, while the Manufacturing sector experienced 28 notices impacting 4,120 employees. The Transportation and Warehousing sector also reported a notable impact, with 8 notices leading to 890 job cuts during April 2026 [[^]](https://warnfirehose.com/blog/2026/04).

High-population states experienced significant layoffs, especially California and Texas. California recorded 23 WARN notices, resulting in 3,060 job cuts [[^]](https://www.warnfirehose.com/blog/2026/04/california). Within California, the Technology sector was particularly affected, with 12 notices impacting 2,210 employees. Texas also experienced substantial job reductions in April 2026, with 10 WARN notices leading to 1,020 job cuts, affecting its Information, Manufacturing, and Transportation and Warehousing sectors [[^]](https://warnfirehose.com/blog/2026/04/texas). While New York was identified as one of the six states hardest hit by layoffs in 2026 [[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/layoffs-in-2026-hit-six-states-hardest-11854070), specific WARN Act notice data for April 2026 in these sectors for New York is not explicitly detailed within the provided research.

## What Are the Latest US Employment Trends Across Sectors?

ISM Manufacturing Employment Index | 48.5% (March 2026) [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html) |
ISM Services Employment Index | 52% (March 2026) [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-march-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302734026.html) |
NFIB Small Business Job Creation Plans | Net 9% (March 2026) [[^]](https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/nfib-jobs-report-employment-index-pulls-back-2/) |

**March 2026 ISM reports reveal contrasting employment trends**

March 2026 ISM reports reveal contrasting employment trends. The manufacturing sector's employment outlook contracted, with the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index registering 48.5 percent, a decrease from 51.9 percent in February 2026. A reading below 50 percent indicates contraction [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html). Conversely, the services sector continued to expand, as its Employment Index reached 52 percent in March 2026, although this represented a slower pace compared to the 54.7 percent recorded in February [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-march-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302734026.html).

Small business hiring plans softened during March 2026. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March 2026 indicated that a net 9 percent of small business owners intended to create new jobs within the next three months [[^]](https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/nfib-jobs-report-employment-index-pulls-back-2/). This figure, however, marked a four-point decline from the preceding month, suggesting a softening in hiring intentions among small businesses [[^]](https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/nfib-jobs-report-employment-index-pulls-back-2/).

Overall, forward-looking employment shows a mixed, varied economic outlook. Manufacturing signals contraction [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html), services continue to expand but at a slower rate [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-march-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302734026.html), and small businesses, while still positive, show decreasing intent to hire [[^]](https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/nfib-jobs-report-employment-index-pulls-back-2/). This data collectively points to varying employment dynamics across different segments of the economy.

## What UI System Changes Are Happening in Key States by 2026?

New York Weekly Benefits Increase | October 2025 [[^]](https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/10/weekly-unemployment-insurance-benefits-set-increase/408689/) |
Pennsylvania Domestic Violence 'Express Lane' | January 2026 [[^]](https://www.palaborandemploymentblog.com/2026/01/articles/uncategorized/act-55-takes-effect-an-express-lane-for-uc-claimants-affected-by-domestic-violence/) |
California Contribution Rate Updates | By 2026 [[^]](https://www.prudential.com/legislative-monitor-issue/CA-EDD-2025-Updates) |

**Several states with historically high unemployment insurance claims volumes have implemented or announced changes to their systems and eligibility rules set to take effect before April 2026**

Several states with historically high unemployment insurance claims volumes have implemented or announced changes to their systems and eligibility rules set to take effect before April 2026. New York has enacted significant legislation within its Fiscal Year 2026 budget to strengthen and protect the workforce [[^]](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-signs-landmark-legislation-strengthen-and-protect-our-workforce-part-fy-2026), with weekly unemployment insurance benefits scheduled to increase starting October 2025 [[^]](https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/10/weekly-unemployment-insurance-benefits-set-increase/408689/). Pennsylvania will implement Act 55 in January 2026, establishing an "express lane" for unemployment compensation claimants affected by domestic violence [[^]](https://www.palaborandemploymentblog.com/2026/01/articles/uncategorized/act-55-takes-effect-an-express-lane-for-uc-claimants-affected-by-domestic-violence/). In California, the Employment Development Department has announced updated 2026 contribution rates, which are relevant to the funding structure of the unemployment insurance system and will be effective by 2026 [[^]](https://www.prudential.com/legislative-monitor-issue/CA-EDD-2025-Updates).

System modernizations and legislative efforts are also underway in these states. Texas has announced updates to its Unemployment System (TxUS) aimed at improving processing capabilities [[^]](https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/TXWC/bulletins/3e710e8). Furthermore, ongoing legislative initiatives for the 2025-2026 sessions indicate continued attention to unemployment insurance, including California's SB-854 [[^]](http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260SB854), Pennsylvania's HB0274 [[^]](https://www.palegis.us/legislation/bills/text/PDF/2025/0/HB0274/PN2541), and Texas's HB3699 [[^]](https://jdkey.com/texas-89th-legislature/hb3699-89th-regular).

## What is the seasonal adjustment factor for April 2026 jobless claims?

2026 Seasonal Adjustment Factor (Week ending April 25) | Not yet available [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/current-factors.htm) |
2025 Seasonal Adjustment Factor (Week ending April 26) | 0.982 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/current-factors.htm) |
Easter 2025 Date | April 20 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_for_Easter) |

**The 2026 seasonal adjustment factor remains unpublished by the BLS**

The 2026 seasonal adjustment factor remains unpublished by the BLS. The specific seasonal adjustment factor for initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026, has not yet been released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These factors are typically calculated and made public annually for the upcoming year by the conclusion of the current year [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/current-factors.htm). For comparative purposes, the factors for the calendar week most closely aligning with late April in previous post-pandemic years were 0.992 for Week 17 (ending April 29) in 2023 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/archived-factors.htm), 0.999 for Week 16 (ending April 27) in 2024 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/current-factors.htm), and 0.982 for Week 16 (ending April 26) in 2025 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/current-factors.htm).

Variable holiday dates, like Easter, can distort seasonal adjustment models. Calendar quirks, particularly the fluctuating date of Easter, have the potential to impact the effectiveness of the seasonal adjustment **model**. The BLS explicitly addresses holidays with variable dates by utilizing calendar variables within its seasonal adjustment methodology [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/ui-claims-seasonal-adjustment-methodology.pdf). A notable example is Easter 2025, which occurred on April 20 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_for_Easter), a particularly late date that fell directly within Week 16 (ending April 26). This "late Easter" in 2025 could have significantly influenced the seasonal adjustment factor for that week when compared to years with earlier Easters, such as 2024 (March 31) or 2023 (April 9) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_for_Easter).

Easter 2026 is earlier, and the BLS **model** incorporates such shifts. For 2026, Easter is scheduled for April 5 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_for_Easter), positioning it earlier in the month relative to the target week ending April 25. The BLS **model** is specifically designed to incorporate these calendar shifts to prevent distortions in the seasonally adjusted data [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/ui-claims-seasonal-adjustment-methodology.pdf). This approach ensures that the statistics accurately reflect underlying labor **market** trends despite the variable timing of holidays [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/lau/ui-claims-seasonal-adjustment-methodology.pdf).

## What is the Pattern of Initial Jobless Claims Revisions?

Latest Revised Claims | 203,000 (week ending April 18, 2026) [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20260585.pdf) |
Typical Revision Amount | -1,000 claims [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) |
Weeks with Downward Revisions | 3 out of 8 weeks [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) |

**Weekly initial jobless claims revisions consistently involved minor downward adjustments**

Weekly initial jobless claims revisions consistently involved minor downward adjustments. In the eight weeks preceding April 25, 2026, revisions to initial jobless claims, when they occurred, consistently showed a minor downward adjustment of 1,000 claims. This pattern suggests that initial jobless claims tend to be slightly over-estimated in their first release, particularly when subsequent adjustments are deemed necessary. For the weeks where no adjustments were required, the initial figures remained unchanged.

Several weeks demonstrate this trend of downward revisions to initial claims. For instance, the initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, 2026, were first reported at 204,000 [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) and later revised down by 1,000 to 203,000 [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20260585.pdf). Similar downward revisions of 1,000 claims occurred for the week ending March 7, 2026, which moved from an initial 208,000 to 207,000 [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf), and for the week ending February 28, 2026, where claims were adjusted from 210,000 to 209,000 [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf). In all three instances of revision within this period, the adjustment maintained a consistent decrease of 1,000 claims.

However, many other weeks showed no revisions to their initial estimates. Conversely, several weeks within the same eight-week period saw no revisions to their initial figures. These included the weeks ending April 11, March 28, March 21, March 14, and April 4, 2026, with their initial estimates remaining unchanged at 203,000, 213,000, 212,000, 215,000, and 204,000 respectively [[^]](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 07, 2026
- **Closes:** April 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26APR23-230000: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26APR23-225000: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26APR23-220000: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26APR23-215000: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26APR23-210000: YES (Apr 23, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.