# Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026?

2026

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Jobs & Economy

HTML: /markets/economics/jobs-economy/canadian-trips-to-the-u-s-down-20-in-2026/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Canadian trips to the U.S.** to decline greater than **20%** in 2026. It sees potential mispricing, with this outcome at **43.6%** **model** versus **25.0%** **market**.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Canadian return trips to the U.S.** fell **22%** in January 2026.
- Major Canadian airlines are significantly reducing U.S. route capacities for 2026.
- Canadian disposable income shows mixed outlooks; U.S. travel costs likely impact.
- Scheduled 2026 bilateral events could influence U.S.-Canada political factors.
- Statistics Canada's 'Frontier Counts' is the official source for **market** resolution.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **43.6%** **probability** against 25c implies 4.0x payout, with early 2026 trips already down **22%**.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Decline greater than 20% | 25.0% | 43.6% | No specific drivers are detailed in the provided research for this outcome. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 43.6% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 25.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Decline greater than 20%
- Edge: +18.6pp
- Expected Return: +74.3%
- R-Score: 1.86
- Total Volume: $1,673.2
- 24h Volume: $674.2
- Open Interest: $773.2

- Expiration: February 23, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has seen an upward trend, with the probability of Canadian trips to the U.S. falling by 20% in 2026 rising from an initial 10.0% to a current price of 25.0%. The most significant price action was a sharp 15.0 percentage point spike on May 07, 2026, which moved the price from 10.0% to 25.0%. This jump was likely a reaction to a Statistics Canada announcement that revealed continued declines in Canadian air travel to the U.S. for March 2026. This data release appears to have reinforced negative sentiment about Canadian travel to the U.S., aligning with broader reports from sources like Flight Centre indicating a majority of Canadians are less likely to visit the U.S.

The May 07 price spike was accompanied by a significant trading volume of 655.2 contracts, representing a substantial portion of the total 1,673 contracts traded throughout the market's history. This high volume suggests strong conviction among traders reacting to the new data. In terms of price levels, the market established an early floor at 10.0% before breaking out to the 25.0% level, which has since acted as a new point of consolidation. The all-time high of 49.0% represents a potential resistance level. Overall, the chart indicates a growing belief that a significant drop in travel is possible, though the current 25.0% price still suggests traders believe the outcome is more likely than not to resolve as "No."

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 07, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 25.0%

**Outcome:** Decline greater than 20%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point market spike on May 07, 2026, was likely the Statistics Canada announcement on May 01, 2026, detailing screened passenger traffic for March 2026 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260501/dq260501c-eng.htm). This traditional news release revealed continued declines in Canadian air travel to the U.S., down 7.0% year over year and 25.4% compared to March 2024 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260501/dq260501c-eng.htm). Furthermore, the report noted a 15.0% year-over-year increase in non-U.S. international traffic at Halifax airport for March 2026, reinforcing the ongoing trend of Canadians shifting away from U.S. destinations [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260501/dq260501c-eng.htm). This official data, appearing to lead the price move, reaffirmed the "Decline greater than 20%" outcome. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no specific, timely posts or viral narratives linked to this movement were identified in the research.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Statistics Canada reports that Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. in 2026 declined by greater than 20% compared to 2025, based on their "Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2026" release; otherwise, it resolves to NO.

If Statistics Canada does not publish a full-year percentage change for 2026, the market will resolve using a percentage calculated from their annual table for the same series. The market opened on May 6, 2026, will close early upon the economic data release, or by February 23, 2027, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Canadian trips to the U.S. have shown significant year-over-year declines in early 2026, with return trips down 23-24% in January [[^]](https://www.inboundtravel.org/news/canada-us-cross-border-travel)[[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/insights/rebalancing-canadian-travel-continues-as-u-s-cross-border-trips-decline/) and 12.5% in February [[^]](https://www.thestar.com/business/canadian-travel-to-us-declines-for-14th-consecutive-month-as-overseas-travel-sees-jump/article_90029bdb-26d4-4c40-8621-c2b0d3b5dd8b.html)[[^]](https://globalnews.ca/news/11813837/canada-us-travel-rates-statcan/), continuing a trend from 2025 where overall Canadian visits were reported down over 20% [[^]](https://www.travelweekly.com/North-America-Travel/Canadian-travel-slump-persists-one-year-later)[[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/insights/rebalancing-canadian-travel-continues-as-u-s-cross-border-trips-decline/). This downturn, which has led to airlines cutting over 10% of seats for Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.inboundtravel.org/news/canada-us-cross-border-travel), is largely attributed to factors such as trade wars, tariffs, political tensions, and a weaker Canadian dollar [[^]](https://www.promarket.org/2026/04/21/trade-wars-have-kept-canadian-tourists-away-and-cost-americans-jobs/)[[^]](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/canada-us-travel-slump-deepens-as-fewer-canadians-cross-border-amid-currency-pressure-security-scrutiny-and-political-friction/)[[^]](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/canadian-travel-to-the-united-states-slumps-in-2026-as-political-tensions-tariff-disputes-and-shifting-sentiment-spark-a-domestic-tourism-boom-across-canadas-resurgent-getaway-landscape/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Decline greater than 20% | 25% | 26% | 25% | $1,673.2 | $773.2 |

## How are 2026 travel booking trends from Canada to the U.S. comparing with bookings to European and Caribbean destinations?

US Trips Decline (Jan 2026) | 22% year over year [[^]](https://globalnews.ca/news/11741979/canada-united-states-travel-january-2026/)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260323/dq260323a-eng.htm) |
Canadians Less Likely to Visit US (2026) | 62% [[^]](https://baxterambassadors.com/canadians-continue-to-shift-travel-priorities-in-2026/) |
Overseas Trips Increase (Feb 2026) | 6.8% [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm) |

**Canadian travel to the United States experienced a significant decline in early 2026**

Canadian travel to the United States experienced a significant decline in early 2026. January 2026 saw a **22%** year-over-year plunge in Canadian return trips to the U.S., totaling 2.1 million [[^]](https://globalnews.ca/news/11741979/canada-united-states-travel-january-2026/)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260323/dq260323a-eng.htm). This downward trend continued into February 2026, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of decline, with a **12.5%** reduction in trips, including 1.2 million by auto and 749,000 by air [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm). Looking ahead, **62%** of Canadians are less likely to visit the U.S. in 2026 [[^]](https://baxterambassadors.com/canadians-continue-to-shift-travel-priorities-in-2026/), and trip consideration for the U.S. has dropped to **21%** from **40%** in 2023 [[^]](https://www.travelmarketreport.com/canada/news/articles/trends-in-canadian-travel-2026-key-insights). Further reflecting this downturn, WestJet is suspending its U.S. routes for summer 2026 [[^]](https://globalnews.ca/news/11741979/canada-united-states-travel-january-2026/).

Overseas and Caribbean destinations are increasingly popular among Canadian travelers. Overseas return trips saw a **6.8%** surge in February 2026, reaching 1.4 million and surpassing U.S. auto trips [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm). Air travel to countries other than the U.S. also showed robust growth, increasing by **10.7%** in January 2026 [[^]](https://tourismanalytics.com/expertinsights/trips-abroad-by-canadian-residents-by-air-to-countries-other-than-the-usa-grew-by-107-in-january-2026). This shift in preference is clearly seen in 2026 trip consideration, with **37%** of Canadians considering the Caribbean and **31%** considering Western Europe, significantly higher than the **21%** considering the U.S. [[^]](https://www.travelmarketreport.com/canada/news/articles/trends-in-canadian-travel-2026-key-insights).

## What do 2026 economic outlooks from RBC, Vanguard, and Goldman Sachs project for Canadian disposable income versus U.S. travel costs?

Canadian Real Disposable Income Growth (Bottom 80%) | Positive for 2025-26 (RBC) [[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/insights/affordability-decoding-canadas-uneven-household-realities/)[[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/quarterly-canadian-outlook/quarterly-canadian-outlook-growth-headwinds-offset-by-stabilizing-trade-and-jobs/) |
U.S. Travel Price Index Increase | 5.8% year-over-year by March 2026 [[^]](https://www.ustravel.org/research/travel-price-index) |
Canadian Trips to U.S. Decrease | 21.7% through November 2025 [[^]](https://elroserhostal.com/article/us-sees-a-drop-in-canadian-visitors-as-travel-patterns-shift) |

**Canadian disposable income shows mixed outlooks, with projected GDP growth**

Canadian disposable income shows mixed outlooks, with projected GDP growth. RBC projects positive real disposable income growth for the bottom **80%** of Canadians in 2025-26, though rising energy and food inflation may erode affordability for lower-income households [[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/insights/affordability-decoding-canadas-uneven-household-realities/)[[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/quarterly-canadian-outlook/quarterly-canadian-outlook-growth-headwinds-offset-by-stabilizing-trade-and-jobs/). Other economic forecasts for Canada in 2026 include Vanguard's projection of **1.6%** GDP growth, driven by resilient consumption and real wages, with unemployment expected at **6.2%** and core CPI at **2.3%** [[^]](https://www.vanguard.ca/en/latest-updates/vanguard-economic-and-**market**-outlook). Goldman Sachs similarly forecasts Canadian GDP growth at **1.8%** and unemployment at **6.5%**, attributing this expansion to diminishing tariffs and various fiscal measures [[^]](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-canada-2026-economic-outlook-181252127.html).

U.S. travel costs are rising, deterring Canadian visitors. A significant increase in U.S. travel expenses is projected, with the Travel Price Index expected to rise by **5.8%** year-over-year by March 2026, including notable increases of **19.2%** for gas prices and **14.9%** for airline costs [[^]](https://www.ustravel.org/research/travel-price-index). This trend aligns with a reported decrease in Canadian travel to the U.S., with trips down **21.7%** through November 2025 and an estimated **25.7%** drop for the entirety of 2025 [[^]](https://elroserhostal.com/article/us-sees-a-drop-in-canadian-visitors-as-travel-patterns-shift)[[^]](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/us-international-inbound-lessons-from-2025-outlook-for-2026/). Border crossings from British Columbia to the U.S. also saw a sharp decline of **32%** in January 2026 [[^]](https://vancouversun.com/news/border-crossings-to-us-down-january-2026). While overall U.S. inbound growth is projected at **3.9%** for 2026, a persistent drag from Canadian tourism is expected, consequently fostering growth in Canada's domestic tourism sector [[^]](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/us-international-inbound-lessons-from-2025-outlook-for-2026/)[[^]](https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-s-global-moment-sets-tourism-sector-on-course-for-a-banner-2026-and-growth-to-2035-878490838.html).

## Which specific political factors cited in the Leger report could be influenced by U.S.-Canada bilateral events scheduled for 2026?

Metropolis Summit | February 26 [[^]](https://metropolisconference.ca/en/event/metropolis-americas-2026/) |
Second Century Commission Launch | May [[^]](https://leger360.com/canadian-and-u-s-travel-behaviour/)[[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-three-countries-three-perspectives/) |
SelectUSA Summit | May 3-6 [[^]](https://www.amchamcanada.ca/events/upcoming/selectusa-investment-summit-2026) |

**Scheduled 2026 bilateral events are set to influence U.S.-Canada political factors**

Scheduled 2026 bilateral events are set to influence U.S.-Canada political factors. The Leger report highlights several key political factors in U.S.-Canada relations, including political tensions, tariffs, the perception of the U.S. as an enemy, and **confidence** in trade relations, which could be impacted by upcoming events. Specifically, the Second Century Commission, launching in May and focused on trade and security, is expected to address Canadian concerns regarding "political tensions" [[^]](https://leger360.com/canadian-and-u-s-travel-behaviour/)[[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-three-countries-three-perspectives/), "tariffs" [[^]](https://leger360.com/political-tensions-impact-travel/page/96/?et_blog=&pubDate=20250216&utm=syndication)[[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-three-countries-three-perspectives/), and "**confidence** in trade post U.S. court rulings" [[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-tariffs-court-rulings-diminish-canadians-**confidence**-in-u-s-trade-relations/), potentially also influencing the percentage of Canadians who "view U.S. as enemy" [[^]](https://leger360.com/us-as-ally/). The SelectUSA Summit, scheduled for May 3-6 to discuss investment, could mitigate "political tensions" [[^]](https://leger360.com/canadian-and-u-s-travel-behaviour/)[[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-three-countries-three-perspectives/) and "less **confidence** in trade post U.S. court rulings" [[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-tariffs-court-rulings-diminish-canadians-**confidence**-in-u-s-trade-relations/) through economic engagement [[^]](https://www.amchamcanada.ca/events/upcoming/selectusa-investment-summit-2026). Additionally, the Metropolis Summit on February 26, which addresses immigration and border issues, could influence "political tensions" [[^]](https://leger360.com/canadian-and-u-s-travel-behaviour/)[[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-three-countries-three-perspectives/) and potentially reduce the percentage of Canadians who "view U.S. as enemy" [[^]](https://leger360.com/us-as-ally/) by improving cross-border cooperation [[^]](https://metropolisconference.ca/en/event/metropolis-americas-2026/).

The absence of a North American Leaders' Summit may worsen existing tensions. Amid an ongoing "trade war" [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Leaders'_Summit), the lack of an official North American Leaders' Summit in 2026 suggests that high-level resolution for significant concerns may not occur. This absence could sustain or exacerbate "political tensions" [[^]](https://leger360.com/canadian-and-u-s-travel-behaviour/)[[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-three-countries-three-perspectives/), issues surrounding "tariffs" [[^]](https://leger360.com/political-tensions-impact-travel/page/96/?et_blog=&pubDate=20250216&utm=syndication)[[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-three-countries-three-perspectives/), and the existing "less **confidence** in trade post U.S. court rulings" [[^]](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-tariffs-court-rulings-diminish-canadians-**confidence**-in-u-s-trade-relations/) within the bilateral relationship, as a formal high-level forum would be missing.

## What is the official data source from Statistics Canada that will inform the market's resolution, and what is its 2026 release schedule?

Primary Data Source | "Travel between Canada and other countries" from Frontier Counts (survey ID 5005) [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260323/dq260323a-eng.htm)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm)[[^]](https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&Id=1581706) |
January 2026 Data Release | March 23, 2026 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260323/dq260323a-eng.htm) |
February 2026 Data Release | April 23, 2026 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm) |

**Statistics Canada's 'Frontier Counts' is the official source for US trips**

Statistics Canada's 'Frontier Counts' is the official source for US trips. The official and definitive data source for Canadian trips to the US is Statistics Canada's 'Travel between Canada and other countries' from Frontier Counts, identified as survey ID 5005 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260323/dq260323a-eng.htm)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm)[[^]](https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&Id=1581706). This survey is critical as it provides definitive counts of Canadian trips to the US, based on border records, and represents the complete dataset used for final **market** resolution, distinguishing it from preliminary indicators [[^]](https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&Id=1581706)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260211/dq260211c-eng.htm). While other sources like the National Travel Survey offer quarterly outbound trip data, they are considered less granular regarding border crossings compared to the Frontier Counts [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2410004501)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/251202/dq251202c-eng.htm).

2026 data releases follow a monthly schedule. For 2026, the 'Travel between Canada and other countries' data for January was released on March 23, 2026 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260323/dq260323a-eng.htm). Subsequently, the February data became available on April 23, 2026 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm). The March data is currently scheduled for release on May 21, 2026 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260323/dq260323a-eng.htm)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm).

## How are major Canadian airlines like WestJet and Air Canada adjusting their U.S. route capacities for the 2026 travel seasons?

WestJet US Capacity Cut (Summer 2026) | 32% ASMs [[^]](https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/westjet-removes-15-transborder-routes-cuts-summer-capacity-32)[[^]](https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2026/02/09/westjet-cancels-15-us-routes-cuts-summer-2026-capacity/) |
Air Canada US Capacity Cut (Q1 2026) | 7% [[^]](https://openjaw.com/newsroom/airline/2026/01/08/canadian-airlines-cut-450000-us-bound-seats/) |
Canadian Airlines Overall US Capacity Cut (Q1 2026) | Approximately 10% [[^]](https://openjaw.com/newsroom/airline/2026/01/08/canadian-airlines-cut-450000-us-bound-seats/)[[^]](https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/canadian-airlines-reduce-us-capacity-nearly-10-q1-report) |

**WestJet and Air Canada are significantly reducing U.S**

WestJet and Air Canada are significantly reducing U.S. route capacities for 2026. WestJet announced a **32%** reduction in US capacity measured by available seat miles (ASMs) for summer 2026, which includes eliminating 15 transborder routes and cutting **28%** of its seats for May/June 2026 US service [[^]](https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/westjet-removes-15-transborder-routes-cuts-summer-capacity-32)[[^]](https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2026/02/09/westjet-cancels-15-us-routes-cuts-summer-2026-capacity/)[[^]](https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260127-ws2q26us). For the first quarter of 2026, WestJet's US capacity is down by **19%** [[^]](https://openjaw.com/newsroom/airline/2026/01/08/canadian-airlines-cut-450000-us-bound-seats/)[[^]](https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/canadian-airlines-reduce-us-capacity-nearly-10-q1-report). Similarly, Air Canada's US capacity is reduced by **7%** in Q1 2026, with the airline ceasing seasonal routes earlier than planned, such as services between Toronto and Sacramento, and Vancouver and Raleigh [[^]](https://openjaw.com/newsroom/airline/2026/01/08/canadian-airlines-cut-450000-us-bound-seats/)[[^]](https://toronto.citynews.ca/2026/05/07/air-canada-cuts-service-us-routes-jet-fuel-prices-travel/).

Broader declines reflect softening demand and capacity reallocation efforts. Canadian airlines collectively trimmed approximately **10%** of their US capacity in Q1 2026, which amounts to a total of 450,000 seats [[^]](https://openjaw.com/newsroom/airline/2026/01/08/canadian-airlines-cut-450000-us-bound-seats/)[[^]](https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/canadian-airlines-reduce-us-capacity-nearly-10-q1-report). Overall, the Canada-US capacity saw a **9.6%** decrease in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://airserviceone.com/north-america-to-maintain-modest-growth-in-2026/). This downturn is largely attributed to a softening in transborder demand, potentially influenced by tariffs and geopolitical tensions [[^]](https://fleet-wire.com/westjet-deepens-u-s-flight-cuts-across-summer-2026/)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/now.canada/posts/%EF%B8%8F-westjet-reshapes-canadaus-network-for-summer-2026-westjet-has-announced-a-majo/1311981730959191/)[[^]](https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/2026/04/new-us-routes-omitted-from-air-canadas-winter-schedule-amid-transborder-tensions/)[[^]](https://www.enginecowl.com/canada-us-capacity-load-factors/). Consequently, airlines are reallocating capacity to alternative regions, including the Caribbean, Latin America, and Mexico [[^]](https://fleet-wire.com/westjet-deepens-u-s-flight-cuts-across-summer-2026/)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/now.canada/posts/%EF%B8%8F-westjet-reshapes-canadaus-network-for-summer-2026-westjet-has-announced-a-majo/1311981730959191/)[[^]](https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/2026/04/new-us-routes-omitted-from-air-canadas-winter-schedule-amid-transborder-tensions/)[[^]](https://www.enginecowl.com/canada-us-capacity-load-factors/). Supporting this trend, passenger data indicates that Canadian return trips from the US were down **31.5%** in February 2026 compared to February 2024. Total transborder passengers experienced a **7%** decrease in March 2026 and a **14.5%** decrease in February 2026 [[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260501/dq260501c-eng.htm)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260310/dq260310c-eng.htm).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Canadian return trips to the United States have shown a consistent decline, with January 2026 seeing 2.1 million trips, a 22% year-over-year decrease, and February 2026 recording 2.0 million trips, a 12.5% decrease [[^]](https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-03-24/ca/canadian-return-trips-to-the-united-states-fall-22-while-overseas-travel-hits-new-record-january-2026-statistics-canada-data/)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm).** This marks the 14th consecutive decline [[^]](https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-03-24/ca/canadian-return-trips-to-the-united-states-fall-22-while-overseas-travel-hits-new-record-january-2026-statistics-canada-data/)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260423/dq260423b-eng.htm). RBC Economics forecasts 29.1 million trips for the full year 2025, representing a **25.4%** decrease from 2024 [[^]](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/insights/rebalancing-canadian-travel-continues-as-u-s-cross-border-trips-decline/). Key factors contributing to this trend include political tensions that began in early 2025, a weak Canadian dollar, and increased border scrutiny, even as overseas trips by Canadians have risen by more than **10%** [[^]](https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-03-24/ca/canadian-return-trips-to-the-united-states-fall-22-while-overseas-travel-hits-new-record-january-2026-statistics-canada-data/)[[^]](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/canada-us-travel-slump-deepens-as-fewer-canadians-cross-border-amid-currency-pressure-security-scrutiny-and-political-friction/)[[^]](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260323/dq260323a-eng.htm).

**The reduction in Canadian travel to the U.S.** has led to an estimated economic loss of approximately **$5** billion for the United States, impacting over 100,000 jobs, with border states being the hardest hit [[^]](https://www.thetraveler.org/canadian-tourism-slowdown-squeezes-u-s-border-cities/)[[^]](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/canadian-travel-to-united-states-now-drops-over-fourteen-percent-in-2026-triggering-almost-five-billion-loss-and-sharp-border-declines-in-vermont-and-montana/). While specific prediction markets on an exact **20%** decline are not available, tariff-related markets show low 'Yes' probabilities, between **0%** and **5%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/canada-as-51st-us-state-by-before-july?tid=1736161961291)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-canada-by). A significant event that could potentially boost travel is the FIFA World Cup 2026, which will be hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19 [[^]](https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/united-states).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** March 02, 2027
- **Closes:** February 23, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Canadian return trips to the United States have shown a consistent decline, with January 2026 seeing 2.1 million trips, a **22%** year-over-year decrease, and February 2026 recording 2.0 million trips, a **12.5%** decrease [^] [^] .
- This marks the 14th consecutive decline [^] [^] .
- RBC Economics forecasts 29.1 million trips for the full year 2025, representing a **25.4%** decrease from 2024 [^] .
- Key factors contributing to this trend include political tensions that began in early 2025, a weak Canadian dollar, and increased border scrutiny, even as overseas trips by Canadians have risen by more than **10%** [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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