# US shelter CPI in April 2026 April 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Economics Tags: Inflation HTML: /markets/economics/inflation/us-shelter-cpi-in-april-2026/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect US shelter CPI in April 2026 to be Above 424.0, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Single-family rent growth forecast to decelerate significantly by December 2025.** - High multifamily unit completions expected to continue throughout 2025. - These trends indicate downward pressure on shelter inflation by April 2026. - BLS has no announced OER methodological changes before April 2026. - The CBO has not yet released its 2026 CPI-U shelter projections. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Market** at 99c implies 0.6pp higher **probability** than **model**, which anticipates downward pressure on shelter inflation. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 426.0 | 54.0% | 40.9% | Market higher by 13.1pp | | Above 425.5 | 73.0% | 61.7% | Market higher by 11.3pp | | Above 425.0 | 83.0% | 74.5% | Market higher by 8.5pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Above 426.0 | 54.0% | 40.9% | | Above 425.5 | 73.0% | 61.7% | | Above 425.0 | 83.0% | 74.5% | | Above 424.5 | 98.0% | 96.7% | | Above 424.0 | 99.0% | 98.4% | - Expiration: May 12, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics Based on the chart data, this market shows a consistent and strong upward trend. The probability for a "YES" outcome opened at a very high 92.0% and has since climbed to 99.0%, its current level. The most significant price movement occurred between April 21 and April 28, when the price jumped 7 percentage points from 92.0% to 99.0%. This sharp increase indicates a rapid strengthening of market participants' belief in the "YES" outcome over a short period. No specific news or developments were provided in the context to explain this particular shift in sentiment. The trading volume for this market is very low, with a total of only 150 contracts traded across its history. The sample data points show zero volume on several days, indicating infrequent trading activity. This low liquidity, or thin trading, suggests that the market's conviction may be held by a small number of participants. It also means that relatively small trades can have an outsized impact on the price, which could be a contributing factor to the sharp jump observed in late April. The price action establishes 92.0% as an initial support level, as the market did not trade below this point. The current price of 99.0% acts as the market's high and a key resistance point. Overall, the chart reflects an extremely strong and consolidating market sentiment that the "YES" outcome is a near-certainty. The upward trend from an already high baseline shows that any initial doubt has been almost entirely priced out of the market. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Above 426.0 #### 📈 April 24, 2026: 8.0pp spike Price increased from 38.0% to 46.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 18, 2026: 12.0pp drop Price decreased from 31.0% to 19.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Above 425.5 #### 📈 April 21, 2026: 12.0pp spike Price increased from 54.0% to 66.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 19, 2026: 15.0pp drop Price decreased from 62.0% to 47.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 15, 2026: 27.0pp spike Price increased from 32.0% to 59.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to Yes if the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter for April 2026 is above 426.0, and to No if it is 426.0 or below. The outcome is verified using FRED series CUSR0000SAH1. Trading opened on April 10, 2026, and the market will close early upon the release of the economic data, otherwise by May 12, 2026, at 8:29am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 424.0 | 92% | 100% | 99% | $150 | $150 | | Above 424.5 | 86% | 98% | 98% | $198 | $198 | | Above 425.0 | 75% | 83% | 83% | $801 | $372 | | Above 425.5 | 63% | 73% | 73% | $1,924.56 | $1,370.72 | | Above 426.0 | 47% | 60% | 54% | $2,093.08 | $1,711.3 | ## What is the Forecast for Single-Family Rent Growth by 2025? CoreLogic Rent Growth Forecast (Dec 2025) | 1.2% year-over-year [[^]](https://corelogic.com/press-releases/single-family-rents-lose-steam-at-the-end-of-2025) | CoreLogic Peak Rent Growth (Feb 2022) | 14% year-over-year [[^]](https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/us-annual-single-family-rent-growth-remains-below-2-in-december) | ZORI Peak Rent Growth (Feb 2022) | 16.9% year-over-year [[^]](https://www.zillow.com/research/october-2023-rent-report-33301/) | **CoreLogic forecasts significant deceleration in single-family rent growth by 2025** CoreLogic forecasts significant deceleration in single-family rent growth by 2025. CoreLogic's research department projects the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index to reach **1.2%** year-over-year by December 2025 [[^]](https://corelogic.com/press-releases/single-family-rents-lose-steam-at-the-end-of-2025). A specific Q4 2025 forecast for year-over-year growth in the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) from Zillow's research department is not available in the provided sources, though Zillow economists anticipate the broader housing **market** will warm up in 2026 [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zillow-economists-say-the-housing-**market**-will-warm-up-in-2026-with-more-sales-and-modest-price-growth-302632685.html). Forecasted rent growth significantly decreases from 2022 peak levels. The projected **1.2%** growth rate for the CoreLogic index in late 2025 indicates a return to growth rates substantially below recent peaks and long-term trend rates [[^]](https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/us-annual-single-family-rent-growth-remains-below-2-in-december). For context, the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index reached its highest annual growth rate at **14%** nationally in February 2022 [[^]](https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/us-annual-single-family-rent-growth-remains-below-2-in-december). Similarly, the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) peaked at **16.9%** year-over-year in February 2022 [[^]](https://www.zillow.com/research/october-2023-rent-report-33301/). ## What Is the Multifamily Unit Completion Forecast for 2025? 2025 Multifamily Completions | 388,500 units (CoStar Group) [[^]](https://www.costargroup.com/press-room/2025/costar-lowers-near-term-us-multifamily-forecast) | 10-Year Annual Average Completions | Approximately 300,000 units (CoStar Group) [[^]](https://www.costargroup.com/press-room/2025/costar-lowers-near-term-us-multifamily-forecast) | 2025 Projection vs. 10-Year Average | Roughly 29.5% higher (CoStar Group) [[^]](https://www.costargroup.com/press-room/2025/costar-lowers-near-term-us-multifamily-forecast) | **CoStar Group projects 388,500 multifamily unit completions for 2025, marking a moderation from the previous year** CoStar Group projects 388,500 multifamily unit completions for 2025, marking a moderation from the previous year. This forecast follows an anticipated strong year in 2024, for which CoStar predicts 495,200 completions [[^]](https://www.costargroup.com/press-room/2025/costar-lowers-near-term-us-multifamily-forecast). The expected slowdown from 2024 to 2025 indicates a cooling trend in the **market**'s rapid growth [[^]](https://www.costargroup.com/press-room/2025/costar-lowers-near-term-us-multifamily-forecast). The 2025 multifamily completion projection surpasses the long-term historical average. CoStar Group notes the 10-year annual average for multifamily completions has been around 300,000 units [[^]](https://www.costargroup.com/press-room/2025/costar-lowers-near-term-us-multifamily-forecast). The 2025 forecast of 388,500 units is approximately **29.5%** higher than this long-term average. CoStar characterizes this figure as a moderation towards more typical long-term levels, despite being above the historical average [[^]](https://www.costargroup.com/press-room/2025/costar-lowers-near-term-us-multifamily-forecast). These forecasts rely on foundational data regarding new residential construction and pipeline. Underlying these projections are data from sources such as the US Census Bureau's 'New Residential Construction' reports, which detail units under construction and historical completion rates [[^]](https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/), [[^]](https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/quarterly.html). While the construction pipeline has been robust, leading to elevated near-term completions, forecasters anticipate a gradual return to more typical levels after the peak projected for 2024 [[^]](https://www.multifamilydive.com/news/multifamily-construction-starts-2025-december-november/812510/), [[^]](https://www.constructionowners.com/news/multifamily-starts-hit-2025-high-in-december). ## What Is the Implied Federal Funds Rate for January 2026? How January 2026 Rate is Derived | By analyzing pricing of Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures contracts [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.quotes.html) | Key Futures Contract for January 2026 | 1-Month SOFR January 2026 future [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/E1F26/futures-spreads) | Shift in Market Expectations for 3-Month SOFR | Upward shift between mid-2024 and December 2025 [[^]](https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/the-market-implied-path-of-3-month-sofr-pre-war-and-now) | **The January 2026 Federal Funds Rate is implied by SOFR futures** The January 2026 Federal Funds Rate is implied by SOFR futures. As of December 2025, the **market**'s expectation for the Federal Funds Rate at the January 2026 Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) meeting is derived from an analysis of Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures contract pricing [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.quotes.html). Direct insight comes from the 1-Month SOFR January 2026 futures contract, which indicates the expected average overnight funding rate for that month [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/E1F26/futures-spreads). Additionally, Three-Month SOFR futures offer a broader view of short-term interest rate expectations leading up to the January meeting [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-SR31!/ideas/?contract=SR3Z2025). The implied rate from these futures, serving as a proxy for **market** consensus, is typically calculated by subtracting the future's price from 100 [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.quotes.html). However, based on the provided research, a specific numerical implied Federal Funds Rate for January 2026 as of December 2025 cannot be precisely stated. **Market** expectations for early 2026 rates rose since mid-2024. A notable "upward shift" in the **market**-implied path of 3-month SOFR was observed when comparing projections from mid-2024 to those in December 2025 [[^]](https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/the-**market**-implied-path-of-3-month-sofr-pre-war-and-now). This shift indicates that by December 2025, **market** participants were anticipating a higher trajectory for interest rates in early 2026 than their earlier projections [[^]](https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/the-**market**-implied-path-of-3-month-sofr-pre-war-and-now). This adjustment reflects the **market**'s evolving assessment of economic conditions, the inflation outlook, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, as also influenced by communications such as FOMC minutes [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20251210.pdf). ## Are BLS Methodological Changes Planned for OER Data Collection? OER Changes 2024 | None planned [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2024/methodology-changes-2024.htm) | OER Changes 2025 | None planned [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2025/methodology-changes-2025.htm) | CPI Rebasing 2026 | Presentation change only [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2026/rebasing.htm) | **The BLS has not announced specific OER methodological changes before April 2026** The BLS has not announced specific OER methodological changes before April 2026. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms no upcoming methodological changes to the collection or imputation of data specifically for the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) component are scheduled for implementation prior to April 2026. This includes explicit statements that no changes to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection, calculation, or aggregation methods were planned for 2024, encompassing housing services like OER [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2024/methodology-changes-2024.htm). Similarly, for 2025, the BLS anticipates no changes to CPI data collection, calculation, or aggregation methods related to housing services, meaning the Rent of primary residence and Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence components remain unchanged in their methodology [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2025/methodology-changes-2025.htm). Upcoming CPI adjustments are presentational or routine, not methodological shifts. While there are no OER methodological changes, the BLS will implement a rebasing of selected Consumer Price Index (CPI) series to 1982-84=100. This change is effective with the release of January 2026 data, scheduled for February 2026, but is described as a change in presentation rather than an alteration to the underlying data or methodology [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2026/rebasing.htm). Furthermore, the BLS routinely updates the weights for Rent of primary residence and Owners' Equivalent Rent of primary residence annually, using a two-year lag. This constitutes an ongoing process and is not considered a new methodological change in data collection or imputation [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2024/rent-oer-information.htm). ## When will CBO release 2026 CPI-U Shelter projections? CBO January 2026 Economic Outlook Status | Not yet released [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/) | Q1 2026 CPI-U Shelter Index Projections | Not available from January 2026 CBO report [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/) | Q2 2026 CPI-U Shelter Index Projections | Not available from January 2026 CBO report [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/) | **The Congressional Budget Office has not released its January 2026 'Economic Outlook'** The Congressional Budget Office has not released its January 2026 'Economic Outlook'. Consequently, the precise quarterly average projections for the CPI-U Shelter index for the first and second quarters of 2026, which would be included in this report, are not publicly available from the CBO at this time [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/). The CBO routinely publishes economic outlooks with varying future scopes. For example, the office issued its "Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2027" in December 2024 [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-12/60890-Economy.pdf) and "Additional Information About the Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035" in January 2025 [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/61135-econ-outlook.pdf). However, these earlier publications predate the January 2026 report and therefore do not contain the updated projections anticipated for that forthcoming document. It is not possible to cite CBO projections from a report that has not yet been published. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 19, 2026 - **Closes:** May 12, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?](/markets/economics/growth/china-overtakes-usa-s-economy-by-2030/) - [Costco raises hot dog combo price?](/markets/economics/inflation/costco-raises-hot-dog-combo-price/) - [Next Fed rate hike?](/markets/economics/fed/next-fed-rate-hike/) - [US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026](/markets/economics/oil-and-energy/us-gas-prices-on-apr-29-2026/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 5 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 3 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXSHELTERCPI-26APR10-T424.8: NO (Apr 10, 2026) - KXSHELTERCPI-26APR10-T424.4: NO (Apr 10, 2026) - KXSHELTERCPI-26APR10-T424.0: YES (Apr 10, 2026) - KXSHELTERCPI-26APR10-T423.6: YES (Apr 10, 2026) - KXSHELTERCPI-26APR10-T423.2: YES (Apr 10, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.