# US tariff revenue for 2026

2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Growth

HTML: /markets/economics/growth/us-tariff-revenue-for-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that US tariff revenue for 2026 will be above **$80** billion, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - New 25% tariffs on Chinese imports begin January 1, 2025.** - Additional **7.5%** tariffs implemented on non-**market** economy imports.
- Potential new digital services tariffs are highly probable in 2025.
- New Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms expected to take effect in 2025.
- Retroactive tariff collections are expected to bolster 2026 revenue.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **89.1%** vs 89.0c **market** price, driven by new 2025 tariffs, suggests a 1.1x payout multiple.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $200‎ billion | 64.0% | 64.8% | New tariffs on imports from China and other non-market economies are expected to substantially increase revenue. |
| Above $250‎ billion | 43.0% | 45.1% | New tariffs on imports from China and other non-market economies are expected to substantially increase revenue. |
| Above $150‎ billion | 86.0% | 85.0% | New tariffs on imports from China and other non-market economies are expected to substantially increase revenue. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $200‎ billion | 64.0% | 64.8% |
| Above $250‎ billion | 43.0% | 45.1% |
| Above $150‎ billion | 86.0% | 85.0% |
| Above $125‎ billion | 85.0% | 86.1% |
| Above $100‎ billion | 87.0% | 87.1% |
| Above $80‎ billion | 89.0% | 89.1% |

- Expiration: June 1, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the chart data, the price action for this market has been completely static. The probability has remained unchanged at 89.0% across all available data points since the market opened. There have been no significant movements, spikes, or drops; the trend is entirely sideways. As there have been no price changes, there are no specific news events or developments to correlate with market activity.

The most critical observation from the chart is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the market is entirely illiquid. This lack of volume indicates that no traders have taken a position, and therefore, the current price does not reflect any collective market sentiment or conviction. The 89.0% price is likely the initial price set by the market creator and has not been tested or validated by any trading activity. Consequently, no meaningful support or resistance levels have been established.

In summary, the chart suggests that this market has not yet attracted any participants. The 89.0% probability should be viewed as a starting point rather than an indicator of true market sentiment about US tariff revenue in 2026. The lack of trading means there is no data to infer what the broader market believes the outcome will be. The price is a placeholder until trading activity begins.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 25, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 76.0% to 86.0%

**Outcome:** Above $150‎ billion

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to Yes if US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $200 billion, and No if it is $200 billion or less. The outcome is verified from FRED (series B235RC11A027NBEA); if FRED data is delayed, the market expires according to Kalshi Rule 7.2(b). This market opened on Feb 13, 2026, and will close early upon data release or by May 31, 2027, with payout projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $100‎ billion | 87% | 98% | 87% | $65 | $55 |
| Above $125‎ billion | 85% | 93% | 85% | $172 | $160 |
| Above $150‎ billion | 78% | 86% | 86% | $1,323 | $1,248 |
| Above $200‎ billion | 57% | 62% | 64% | $3,405.02 | $730.01 |
| Above $250‎ billion | 34% | 44% | 43% | $1,834.56 | $1,441.65 |
| Above $80‎ billion | 92% | 98% | 89% | $34 | $29 |

## What Are the New U.S. Import Tariffs Effective 2025?

Tariff on China Imports | 25% ad valorem [[^]](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-tariff-rates-2025/) |
Tariff on Non-Market Economies | 7.5% ad valorem [[^]](https://tradeint.com/insights/official-u-s-reciprocal-tariffs-2025-update/) |
Effective Date for New Tariffs | January 1, 2025 [[^]](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-tariff-rates-2025/) |

**Effective January 1, 2025, U.S**

Effective January 1, 2025, U.S. tariff rates on Chinese imports will significantly change. An executive order will establish a **25%** ad valorem tariff on all goods imported from China, replacing the previous Section 301 tariffs that targeted specific Chinese products [[^]](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-tariff-rates-2025/). This modification is consistent with the Economic and Trade Arrangement between the United States and the People's Republic of China, with further details available in Federal Register notices [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/11/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-consistent-with-the-economic-and-trade-arrangement-between-the-united-states-and-the-peoples-republic-of-china/).

Other nations will also see varied tariff adjustments in 2025. Specifically, an executive order will implement a **7.5%** ad valorem tariff on all imports from nations designated as non-**market** economies or those without existing free trade agreements (FTAs) or Most Favored Nation (MFN) status with the U.S., effective January 1, 2025 [[^]](https://tradeint.com/insights/official-u-s-reciprocal-tariffs-2025-update/). For countries with existing MFN status or established FTAs, specific ad valorem rates will continue to be governed by those agreements, unless otherwise subject to targeted reciprocal modifications as detailed in presidential tariff actions for 2025 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48549).

## Which Section 301 Tariff Exclusions Were Extended by USTR in 2025?

Extended Exclusions | 178 (through November 2026) [[^]](https://kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2025/11/ustr-extends-product-exclusions-china-section-301-tariffs.html) |
Total Exclusions Reviewed | 352 [[^]](https://www.wttlonline.com/stories/ustr-extends-178-china-tariff-exclusions-through-november-2026,14542) |
Expired Exclusions | 174 (on November 29, 2025) [[^]](https://www.wttlonline.com/stories/ustr-extends-178-china-tariff-exclusions-through-november-2026,14542) |

**USTR extended 178 Section 301 tariff exclusions through November 2026**

USTR extended 178 Section 301 tariff exclusions through November 2026. In November 2025, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced its decision regarding the renewal or expiration of a set of Section 301 tariff exclusions previously granted for goods originating from China [[^]](https://kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2025/11/ustr-extends-product-exclusions-china-section-301-tariffs.html). The USTR extended 178 specific product exclusions, allowing them to remain in effect through November 2026 [[^]](https://kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2025/11/ustr-extends-product-exclusions-china-section-301-tariffs.html). This decision was formalized and published in the Federal Register on December 1, 2025 [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-12-01/html/2025-21671.htm).

USTR did not disclose the trade value of affected goods. These 178 extended exclusions were selected from a larger pool of 352 product exclusions that were under review and scheduled to expire on November 29, 2025 [[^]](https://www.wttlonline.com/stories/ustr-extends-178-china-tariff-exclusions-through-november-2026,14542). As a result, the remaining 174 exclusions from this group were not extended and subsequently expired on November 29, 2025 [[^]](https://www.wttlonline.com/stories/ustr-extends-178-china-tariff-exclusions-through-november-2026,14542). However, the USTR has not released or publicly provided details regarding the aggregate trade value of the goods associated with either the extended exclusions or those that were allowed to expire [[^]](https://kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2025/11/ustr-extends-product-exclusions-china-section-301-tariffs.html). Therefore, the total dutiable value of goods affected by these 2025 decisions has not been disclosed by the USTR in the available information.

## How Do Increased Tariffs Affect U.S. Import Volumes?

Tariff Rate Increase | 10 percentage points [[^]](https://www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/2025/us-revenue-implications-president-trumps-2025-tariffs) |
Short-Run Import Decrease | 9 percent [[^]](https://www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/2025/us-revenue-implications-president-trumps-2025-tariffs) |
Long-Run Import Decrease | 11-12 percent [[^]](https://www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/2025/us-revenue-implications-president-trumps-2025-tariffs) |

**Peterson Institute models project U.S**

Peterson Institute models project U.S. import reductions from higher tariffs. Models from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) estimate that a 10 percentage point increase in the average applied tariff rate on targeted countries would lead to a 9 percent reduction in U.S. import volumes from those countries in the short run. This impact is projected to increase over the long run, resulting in an 11 to 12 percent decrease [[^]](https://www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/2025/us-revenue-implications-president-trumps-2025-tariffs).

Trade diversion significantly influences these import volume projections. These projections specifically account for trade diversion, where U.S. consumers and businesses redirect their purchases. As tariffs make goods from targeted countries more expensive, buyers are expected to shift towards domestically produced alternatives or imports from non-tariffed countries, such as Mexico and Vietnam. The noted reductions apply precisely to import volumes from the countries subject to the increased tariffs [[^]](https://www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/2025/us-revenue-implications-president-trumps-2025-tariffs).

## What New U.S. Tariffs and CBAMs are Expected in 2025?

Digital Services Tariffs Likelihood | High for discussion and potential application (2025) [[^]](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-uk-digital-services-tax-b2964006.html) |
Potential Broad Tariff Revenue | Approximately $300 billion annually (10% tariff on all imports) [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/how-much-will-trumps-new-10-or-15-tariffs-raise) |
US CBAM Revenue Potential | Hundreds of millions to billions annually (depending on scope) [[^]](https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/revenue-potential-and-country-exposure-us-border-carbon-adjustment) |

**New U.S**

New U.S. tariffs on digital services are highly probable in 2025. This likelihood is particularly strong pending political shifts, with figures such as former President Trump warning of "big tariffs" for countries imposing digital services taxes, indicating a potential policy direction [[^]](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-uk-digital-services-tax-b2964006.html). While specific revenue figures for digital services tariffs alone are not publicly available, broader tariff proposals, such as a **10%** tariff on all imports, have been estimated to generate approximately **$300** billion annually [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/how-much-will-trumps-new-10-or-15-tariffs-raise). Overall U.S. tariff revenue is projected to reach around **$287** billion by 2026, encompassing all tariffs [[^]](https://businesstats.com/us-tariffs-statistics/). Discussions and potential implementation efforts for these tariffs are anticipated to commence in 2025, with federal documents already reflecting these ongoing policy considerations [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-02-26/html/2025-03188.htm), [[^]](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-03188.pdf?1740491114=).

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) will likely see intense discussion and legislative activity in 2025. Throughout the year, federal documents, such as a 'CBAM Factsheet.pdf' from June 2025, indicate active consideration of these mechanisms [[^]](https://www.dgardiner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/CBAM-Factsheet.pdf). While significant progress toward a U.S. CBAM is anticipated in 2025, full implementation and the collection of substantial revenue might extend beyond 2025 into 2026, as carbon policy decisions continue to evolve [[^]](https://www.niskanencenter.org/where-u-s-carbon-policy-is-being-decided-in-2026/). Should a U.S. CBAM be implemented, it has the potential to generate considerable annual revenue, estimated to range from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, depending on the chosen carbon price and the scope of covered imports [[^]](https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/revenue-potential-and-country-exposure-us-border-carbon-adjustment).

## How Will 2025 Trade Executive Order Impact 2026 Revenue?

First Major Trade Action | Executive Order 14289 [[^]](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14289) |
Signing Date | January 2025 [[^]](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14289) |
Retroactive Tariff Provision | Yes, collection applies to prior imports [[^]](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14289) |

**The first major trade executive order was issued in January 2025**

The first major trade executive order was issued in January 2025. Executive Order 14289 was signed into law that month, aligning with the "America First Trade Policy" declared by The White House in January 2025, marking a foundational presidential action for the year [[^]](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14289). Further information on the timeline and status of these presidential tariff actions can be found in Congressional Research Service (CRS) reports, specifically "Presidential 2025 Tariff Actions" [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48549).

Executive Order 14289 includes provisions for retroactive tariff collection. These specific provisions enable tariffs to be applied to goods imported before the order's official issuance or effective date, based on specified conditions [[^]](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14289). Such retroactive collections are projected to significantly impact U.S. tariff revenue totals for 2026, as collections and adjustments for past import periods may be processed and recorded within the 2026 fiscal year [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-05-02/html/2025-07835.htm). Official details on the scope and implementation of these retroactive provisions are typically published in documents such as the Federal Register [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-05-02/html/2025-07835.htm).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** June 01, 2027
- **Closes:** June 01, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

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**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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