# US personal spending MoM for March 2026

March 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Growth

HTML: /markets/economics/growth/us-personal-spending-mom-for-march-2026/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds (96.5% vs 0.0% market) than the market for US personal spending MoM for March 2026 to be Above -0.3%.** This is driven by a significant surge in early 2026 tax refunds, strong light vehicle sales, and increased revolving credit in February.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Early 2026 tax refunds significantly boosted personal spending year-over-year.** - Strong light vehicle sales in March 2026 reached 16.3 million SAAR.
- Revolving credit outstanding increased significantly in February 2026.
- Aggregate weekly payrolls grew in February 2026, enhancing spending capacity.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** predicts **96.5%** vs 0c **market** price (+**96.5%** gap), driven by surges in refunds, vehicle sales, and credit.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0.6% | 62.0% | 81.0% | Early 2026 tax refunds, strong vehicle sales, and increased credit are set to boost March spending. |
| Above 0.4% | 75.0% | 87.3% | Early 2026 tax refunds, strong vehicle sales, and increased credit are set to boost March spending. |
| Above 0.7% | 65.0% | 80.0% | Early 2026 tax refunds, strong vehicle sales, and increased credit are set to boost March spending. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0.6% | 62.0% | 81.0% |
| Above 0.4% | 75.0% | 87.3% |
| Above 0.7% | 65.0% | 80.0% |
| Above 0.5% | 68.0% | 82.9% |
| Above 0.8% | 55.0% | 73.6% |
| Above 0.3% | 81.0% | 90.7% |
| Above 0.1% | 88.0% | 94.5% |
| Above 0.2% | 92.0% | 94.0% |
| Above 1.1% | 15.0% | 25.0% |
| Above -0.3% | 0.0% | 96.5% |
| Above -0.2% | 0.0% | 96.0% |
| Above -0.1% | 0.0% | 95.5% |
| Above 0.0% | 0.0% | 95.0% |
| Above 0.9% | 0.0% | 29.0% |
| Above 1.0% | 0.0% | 27.0% |

- Expiration: April 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a very stable, sideways price trend, remaining within an extremely narrow one-point range between 94.0% and 95.0%. The market opened at 94.0% and has since drifted up slightly to its current price of 95.0%. This sustained high probability suggests that market sentiment is highly confident that the US personal spending figure for March 2026 will meet or exceed the 0.3% month-over-month threshold. The overall price action reflects a strong and unwavering expectation of a positive outcome.

The most critical technical aspect of this chart is the complete lack of trading activity, with a total volume of zero contracts. This indicates that the price movements, including the minor increase to 95.0%, are not the result of participant trading but are likely adjustments made by an automated market maker. Because no trades have occurred and no specific context was provided, the cause for this price shift cannot be determined. The 94.0% and 95.0% levels have served as the effective price boundaries, but without any volume, they have not been tested or established as true support or resistance levels. The zero-volume condition signals a complete absence of market conviction or participation at the current prices.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if US personal spending Month-over-Month (MoM) for March 2026 is reported above 0.8%, and "No" if it is 0.8% or below, with the outcome verified by Trading Economics. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and will close early upon the release of the economic data, or by April 30, 2026, 9:59 AM EDT at the latest. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above -0.1% | 94% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above -0.2% | 94% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above -0.3% | 95% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 0.0% | 93% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 0.1% | 93% | 100% | 88% | $212 | $211 |
| Above 0.2% | 85% | 94% | 92% | $104 | $101 |
| Above 0.3% | 81% | 89% | 81% | $318 | $315 |
| Above 0.4% | 75% | 83% | 75% | $869 | $276 |
| Above 0.5% | 68% | 77% | 68% | $401 | $66 |
| Above 0.6% | 62% | 67% | 62% | $1,040.52 | $431.15 |
| Above 0.7% | 58% | 64% | 65% | $838.87 | $814.87 |
| Above 0.8% | 45% | 53% | 55% | $341.81 | $341.81 |
| Above 0.9% | 31% | 40% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 1.0% | 22% | 31% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above 1.1% | 15% | 21% | 15% | $5 | $5 |

## What is the projected growth of aggregate weekly payrolls for February 2026?

Month-over-month Growth | 0.8% (February 2026) [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t20.htm) |
February 2026 Payrolls Index | 179.9 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t20.htm) |
January 2026 Payrolls Index | 178.5 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t20.htm) |

**Aggregate weekly payrolls grew in February 2026**

Aggregate weekly payrolls grew in February 2026. The aggregate weekly payrolls for total private employees index, which serves as a primary proxy for personal income growth by reflecting overall earning trends in the private sector, reached 179.9 (seasonally adjusted) in February 2026. This figure was reported in Table B-4 of the 'Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector' [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t20.htm).

The index showed **0.8%** month-over-month growth. This month-over-month increase for aggregate weekly payrolls in February 2026 is calculated by comparing the February 2026 index value of 179.9 to the January 2026 index value of 178.5 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t20.htm). The official Employment Situation report, detailing these results, was released on March 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062026.htm).

## How Has Consumer Confidence Spread Changed Between March 2026 and Q4 2025?

Conference Board Spread (March 2026) | 63.7 points (March 2026) [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-inched-up-again-in-march-302730107.html) |
Conference Board Spread (Q4 2025 Average) | Approximately 71.8 points (Q4 2025) [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-inched-up-again-in-march-302730107.html) |
University of Michigan Data Availability | Not available for March 2026 and Q4 2025 sub-indices [[^]](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) |

**The Conference Board spread between current conditions and future expectations contracted in March 2026**

The Conference Board spread between current conditions and future expectations contracted in March 2026. The Present Situation Index stood at 146.9 points, while the Expectations Index was 83.2 points, resulting in a difference of 63.7 points [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-**confidence**-inched-up-again-in-march-302730107.html). This represents a contraction when compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. In December 2025, the spread was 72.1 points, derived from a Present Situation Index of 148.6 and an Expectations Index of 76.5 [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-**confidence**-inched-up-again-in-march-302730107.html). Similarly, the November 2025 spread was 71.5 points, based on a Present Situation Index of 142.0 and an Expectations Index of 70.5 [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-**confidence**-fell-sharply-in-november-302625725.html). The March 2026 spread is lower than both the November and December 2025 figures, indicating a narrowing of the gap between current conditions and future expectations.

University of Michigan survey data lacks specific sub-indices required for the requested comparison. For the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, detailed sub-indices for 'current conditions' and 'future expectations' for both March 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2025 were not provided in the available sources [[^]](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/). Although an overall consumer **confidence** result of 52.9 for December 2025 was mentioned [[^]](http://www.pcbe.org:8080/homepage.nsf/DocView?Open=&UNID=bc029c11e55eac3c85258d65006d394f), the specific sub-indices necessary to calculate the spread and enable a comparison with March 2026 data were unavailable.

## What Was the SAAR for Light Vehicle Sales in March 2026?

Light Vehicle Sales SAAR (March 2026) | 16.3 million units [[^]](https://www.motor.com/2026/04/march-saar-hits-16-3m-highest-of-q1/) |
Q1 2026 SAAR Performance | Highest SAAR in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.motor.com/2026/04/march-saar-hits-16-3m-highest-of-q1/) |
Manufacturers' Sales Incentive Levels | Information not available for Q1 2026 (Based on provided sources) [[^]](https://www.motor.com/2026/04/march-saar-hits-16-3m-highest-of-q1/) |

**Light vehicle sales in March 2026 reached 16.3 million SAAR**

Light vehicle sales in March 2026 reached 16.3 million SAAR. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of light vehicle sales for March 2026 reached 16.3 million units [[^]](https://www.motor.com/2026/04/march-saar-hits-16-3m-highest-of-q1/). This figure represented the highest SAAR observed during the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.motor.com/2026/04/march-saar-hits-16-3m-highest-of-q1/). Other reports indicated that U.S. new-vehicle sales maintained a steady pace in March [[^]](https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/cox-automotive-forecast-mar-2026-u-s-auto-sales-forecast/), with some sources noting sales were in line with current conditions, though potentially down from the previous year [[^]](https://www.spglobal.com/automotive-insights/en/blogs/us-auto-sales).

Sales incentive levels for Q1 2026 were not available. The provided research did not contain specific information regarding manufacturers' sales incentive levels during the first quarter of 2026. Consequently, a direct comparison between the March 2026 SAAR and any manufacturers' sales incentive levels for the quarter cannot be made based on the available sources.

## What Was the Change in Revolving Credit for February 2026?

Month-over-month change | 1.2% increase (February 2026) [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/) |
Total revolving credit outstanding | $1,345.5 billion (February 2026) [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/) |
Bank-issued credit cards increase | 1.4% ($14.2 billion) (February 2026) [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/) |

**Revolving credit outstanding increased significantly in February 2026**

Revolving credit outstanding increased significantly in February 2026. According to the Federal Reserve's G.19 Consumer Credit report, revolving credit outstanding rose by **1.2%** on a month-over-month basis. The total amount reached **$1,345.5** billion in February 2026, up from **$1,329.5** billion recorded in January 2026 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/).

This expansion was primarily driven by bank-issued credit cards. Commercial banks reported a **1.4%** increase in their revolving credit outstanding, contributing **$14.2** billion to the overall growth. In contrast, credit unions experienced a smaller increase of **0.8%** in their revolving credit portfolios, adding **$0.7** billion to the total [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/).

## How Did Early 2026 Tax Refunds Impact Personal Spending?

Cumulative Refunds | $272.774 billion (as of week ending March 20, 2026) [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-march-20-2026) |
Average Refund Size | $3,109 (as of week ending March 20, 2026) [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-march-20-2026) |
Year-over-Year Cumulative Change | +13.54% (as of week ending March 20, 2026) [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-march-20-2026) |

**Tax refunds significantly increased year-over-year through mid-March 2026**

Tax refunds significantly increased year-over-year through mid-March 2026. As of the week ending March 20, 2026, weekly IRS tax filing statistics show the cumulative dollar amount of tax refunds issued reached **$272.774** billion, with an average refund size of **$3,109** [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-march-20-2026). This represents a substantial rise from the same period in the prior year, when cumulative refunds totaled **$240.245** billion and the average refund was **$2,841** [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-march-20-2026). Specifically, the cumulative dollar amount of refunds grew by approximately **13.54%**, while the average refund size saw an increase of about **9.40%** [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-march-20-2026). This notable rise in funds for taxpayers in 2026 has been described by some analyses as a "refund surge" [[^]](https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/this-years-higher-tax-refunds-whats-driving-them/).

BEA's seasonal assumptions may underestimate March spending impact. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) typically classifies tax refunds as "government current transfer payments to persons," which contribute to disposable personal income, a key factor driving personal spending [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook/pdf/chapter-05.pdf). The BEA utilizes historical patterns to apply seasonal adjustments to income and outlays, aiming to remove predictable fluctuations and identify underlying economic trends [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook/pdf/chapter-05.pdf). However, the observed year-over-year increase in refunds through mid-March 2026, characterized by some analyses as an "unprecedented surge" [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/bpas/article/marketminute-2026-1-19-the-great-2026-refund-surge-a-150-billion-stimulus-hidden-in-plain-sight), suggests a flow of funds that could notably exceed what typical historical seasonal assumptions might anticipate. This substantial rise in refund dollars, compared to the prior year and potentially against historical seasonal expectations, could provide a stronger boost to personal disposable income and consequently to March personal spending than what standard seasonal adjustment factors alone might predict [[^]](https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/this-years-higher-tax-refunds-whats-driving-them/). If what some refer to as the "Great 2026 Refund Surge" [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/bpas/article/marketminute-2026-1-19-the-great-2026-refund-surge-a-150-billion-stimulus-hidden-in-plain-sight) delivers greater stimulus than embedded in the BEA's historical seasonal models for transfer payments, it could lead to higher actual personal spending in March relative to seasonally adjusted forecasts based on average past patterns.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 07, 2026
- **Closes:** April 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 15 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 7 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXUSPSPEND-26APR09-T1.2: NO (Apr 09, 2026)
- KXUSPSPEND-26APR09-T1.1: NO (Apr 09, 2026)
- KXUSPSPEND-26APR09-T1: NO (Apr 09, 2026)
- KXUSPSPEND-26APR09-T0.9: NO (Apr 09, 2026)
- KXUSPSPEND-26APR09-T0.8: NO (Apr 09, 2026)

## Disclaimer

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Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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