# US government debt on April 30, 2026 April 30, 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Economics Tags: Growth HTML: /markets/economics/growth/us-government-debt-on-april-30-2026/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect US government debt to be above 39.10 trillion on April 30, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - CBO projects persistent federal deficits for fiscal year 2026.** - A **$1.6** trillion rolling deficit was reported through March 2026. - SOFR futures imply **4.35%** interest rates through April 2026. - Strong 2025 S&P 500 growth may yield higher tax revenues. - Debt ceiling negotiations will intensify mid-2025 or early 2026. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** Despite projected persistent deficits, **model** estimates **12.3%** **probability**, below 13c **market** price, implying 7.7x payout multiple. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 39.10 trillion | 13.0% | 12.3% | Market higher by 0.7pp | | Above 39.20 trillion | 6.0% | 5.6% | Market higher by 0.4pp | | Above 39.30 trillion | 3.0% | 2.8% | Market higher by 0.2pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Above 39.10 trillion | 13.0% | 12.3% | | Above 39.20 trillion | 6.0% | 5.6% | | Above 39.30 trillion | 3.0% | 2.8% | | Above 40.00 trillion | 3.0% | 2.8% | | Above 39.90 trillion | 2.0% | 2.8% | | Above 39.40 trillion | 2.0% | 2.8% | | Above 39.50 trillion | 2.0% | 2.8% | | Above 39.60 trillion | 2.0% | 2.8% | | Above 39.80 trillion | 2.0% | 2.8% | | Above 39.70 trillion | 2.0% | 2.8% | - Expiration: May 1, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics The market has traded between 5.0% and 74.0% YES probability, with a current reading of 13.0%. Total volume: 7,092 contracts. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Above 39.10 trillion #### ๐Ÿ“‰ April 29, 2026: 14.0pp drop Price decreased from 27.0% to 13.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Above 39.20 trillion #### ๐Ÿ“‰ April 27, 2026: 9.0pp drop Price decreased from 20.0% to 11.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### ๐Ÿ“ˆ April 26, 2026: 18.0pp spike Price increased from 2.0% to 20.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### ๐Ÿ“‰ April 25, 2026: 36.0pp drop Price decreased from 38.0% to 2.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### ๐Ÿ“‰ April 24, 2026: 10.0pp drop Price decreased from 48.0% to 38.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if the U.S. Total Public Debt Outstanding for April 30, 2026, is above 39.10 trillion, and to NO otherwise. The outcome is verified using the U.S. Treasuryโ€™s Debt to the Penny dataset for that specific date. Trading began March 26, 2026, and the market will close early upon the data release, or by May 1, 2026, at 3:59pm EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 39.10 trillion | 7% | 11% | 13% | $11,011.03 | $2,985.88 | | Above 39.20 trillion | 4% | 8% | 6% | $9,824.17 | $3,622.7 | | Above 39.30 trillion | 2% | 3% | 3% | $2,818.61 | $2,411.91 | | Above 39.40 trillion | 0% | 1% | 2% | $462.31 | $401.09 | | Above 39.50 trillion | 0% | 1% | 2% | $243.48 | $243.48 | | Above 39.60 trillion | 0% | 1% | 2% | $237 | $212 | | Above 39.70 trillion | 0% | 1% | 2% | $205 | $205 | | Above 39.80 trillion | 0% | 1% | 2% | $215 | $210 | | Above 39.90 trillion | 0% | 1% | 2% | $600.21 | $575.92 | | Above 40.00 trillion | 0% | 1% | 3% | $1,109.73 | $1,107.72 | ## Can CBO Projections for FY2026 Be Compared to Actual Treasury Data? CBO Outlook Release | February 2026 [[^]](https://uspolicy.org/deficits-persist-despite-revenue-surge-in-new-cbo-budget-report/) | 12-Month Rolling Deficit (March 2026) | $1.6 trillion [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/12-month-rolling-deficit-16-trillion-march-2026) | CBO General Projection | Persistent deficits anticipated [[^]](https://uspolicy.org/deficits-persist-despite-revenue-surge-in-new-cbo-budget-report/) | **The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects persistent deficits for the coming fiscal years** The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects persistent deficits for the coming fiscal years. The CBO's February 2026 "Budget and Economic Outlook" anticipates persistent deficits for fiscal years 2026 to 2036, even with an expected surge in revenue [[^]](https://uspolicy.org/deficits-persist-despite-revenue-surge-in-new-cbo-budget-report/). While the U.S. Treasury provides actual monthly outlays and receipts data in its Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) [[^]](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-and-outlays-of-the-u-s-government), the specific numerical projections from CBO for cumulative fiscal year 2026 receipts and outlays through March 2026 are not detailed within the available sources. A direct numerical comparison is not feasible with current information. A direct numerical comparison between the actual cumulative fiscal year 2026 outlays and receipts reported by the U.S. Treasury through March 2026 and the specific monthly projections from the CBO's most recent Budget and Economic Outlook is currently not feasible. While the research confirms the existence of both CBO's broader projections [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook) and the Treasury's actual data [[^]](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-and-outlays-of-the-u-s-government), it lacks the granular numerical CBO data points required for such a detailed, month-by-month analysis. Separately, the 12-month rolling deficit ending March 2026 was reported at **$1.6** trillion [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/12-month-rolling-deficit-16-trillion-march-2026). ## How Do Philadelphia Fed and CBO GDP Forecasts Align? SPF Q4 2025 Real GDP Growth | 1.7% (Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters [[^]](https://philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026)) | SPF Q1 2026 Real GDP Growth | 1.6% (Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters [[^]](https://philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026)) | CBO 2025 Annual Real GDP Growth | 1.5% (Congressional Budget Office [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook)) | **The Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters projects specific real GDP growth rates** The Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters projects specific real GDP growth rates. The median forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) indicates an annualized real GDP growth rate of **1.7%** for the fourth quarter of 2025 and **1.6%** for the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026). These figures represent expert expectations for near-term economic expansion, presented as quarterly annualized rates. The CBO's economic assumptions offer a differing perspective. In contrast, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in its February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, outlined economic assumptions for revenue projections. The CBO anticipated real GDP to grow by **1.5%** for the full year 2025 and **1.6%** for the full year 2026 [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook). A comparison of these forecasts reveals that the SPF's projection of **1.7%** for Q4 2025 real GDP growth is slightly higher than the CBO's overall annual assumption of **1.5%** for 2025 [[^]](https://philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026). However, the SPF's forecast of **1.6%** for Q1 2026 real GDP growth aligns precisely with the CBO's annual assumption of **1.6%** for 2026 [[^]](https://philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026). It is important to note that the SPF provides quarterly annualized rates, whereas the CBO's figures for 2025 and 2026 are annual growth rates. ## How Do Market-Implied Rates Compare to CBO 2026 Projections? Market-Implied 3-Month SOFR Rate (April 2026) | 4.35% [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-SR31!/?contract=SR3J2026) | CBO Projected 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (FY2026) | 4.60% [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook) | June 2026 3-Month SOFR Futures Price (SR3J2026) | 95.65 [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-SR31!/?contract=SR3J2026) | **The SOFR futures market implies a 3-month rate around 4.35% through April 2026 [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-SR31!/?contract=SR3J2026)** The SOFR futures **market** implies a 3-month rate around **4.35%** through April 2026 [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-SR31!/?contract=SR3J2026). This **market** expectation is derived from the pricing of Three-Month SOFR futures contracts, specifically the June 2026 (SR3J2026) contract. A futures price of approximately 95.65 for SR3J2026 suggests that **market** participants anticipate some moderation in short-term rates by that period [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-SR31!/?contract=SR3J2026). In contrast, the CBO projects a higher 3-month Treasury bill rate for FY2026. The Congressional Budget Office, in its February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, projects the 3-month Treasury bill rate for fiscal year 2026 to be around **4.60%** [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook). The CBO's interest rate assumptions, which are detailed in its economic outlook reports for budgeting purposes, are somewhat more elevated or stable than the **market**'s implied path for the specific period around April 2026, reflecting a more conservative budgeting approach [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook). ## How Did Strong 2025 Market Performance Affect 2026 Tax Season? 2025 S&P 500 Performance | 16% gain [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-12-31-resilient-rally-s-and-p-500-caps-2025-with-16-gain-marking-historic-three-year-winning-streak) | 2026 Tax Season Trend | Fewer Returns, Bigger Refunds (by mid-April 2026) [[^]](https://forbes-forbescom-live.non-prod.zephrcf.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2026/04/17/fewer-returns-bigger-refunds-what-irs-data-says-about-the-2026-tax-season/) | 2025 Fiscal Stimulus Impact | Sizeable, front-loaded fiscal and tax stimulus from OBBBA [[^]](https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-12/Chart_of_the_Day_12_16_Sizeable_and_Front-Loaded_OBBBA_Fiscal_and_Tax_Stimulus.pdf) | **The S&P 500's strong 2025 growth usually suggests higher capital gains taxes** The S&P 500's strong 2025 growth usually suggests higher capital gains taxes. The S&P 500 concluded 2025 with a robust **16%** gain [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-12-31-resilient-rally-s-and-p-500-caps-2025-with-16-gain-marking-historic-three-year-winning-streak), a performance that would typically indicate a favorable environment for increased capital gains realizations and, consequently, higher non-withheld individual income tax receipts. While individual income tax revenues generally tend to outpace GDP growth, reflecting the progressive nature of the tax system and the influence of capital income [[^]](https://taxpolicycenter.org/publications/why-individual-income-tax-revenues-grow-faster-gdp), the available research does not explicitly provide specific projections from organizations like the Tax Policy Center or Hutchins Center for the January-April 2026 tax season, directly linked to this particular S&P 500 performance. Actual 2026 tax season saw fewer returns but larger refunds. Despite the strong **market** growth, actual IRS data for the 2026 tax season, by mid-April, showed a trend of 'Fewer Returns, Bigger Refunds' [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-april-17-2026). This outcome suggests that other significant factors influenced net receipts during the filing season. A key factor identified was the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), enacted in 2025, which provided substantial fiscal and tax stimulus described as "sizeable and front-loaded" [[^]](https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-12/Chart_of_the_Day_12_16_Sizeable_and_Front-Loaded_OBBBA_Fiscal_and_Tax_Stimulus.pdf), likely impacting tax liabilities and refund amounts in the subsequent 2026 filing season. ## When Will U.S. Treasury Exhaust Debt Authority and Measures? Treasury borrowing authority exhausted | mid-2025 or early 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/60887-debt-limit.pdf) | Extraordinary measures exhausted | late 2025 or early 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/60887-debt-limit.pdf) | Extraordinary measures deployment | Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/60887-debt-limit.pdf) | **U.S** U.S. debt ceiling negotiations will intensify around mid-2025 or early 2026. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that the U.S. Treasury's statutory borrowing authority will be exhausted sometime between mid-2025 and early 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/60887-debt-limit.pdf). Prior to this, the Treasury would likely implement "extraordinary measures," which the CBO estimates would be depleted in late 2025 or early 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/60887-debt-limit.pdf). This timeline suggests that discussions regarding the debt ceiling are anticipated to escalate as the Treasury approaches these financial constraints. Extraordinary measures would temporarily suppress the 'Debt to the Penny' figure. If a resolution is not reached promptly, the Treasury would likely be compelled to deploy "extraordinary measures" in Q1 2026 to continue financing government operations without exceeding the debt limit [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/60887-debt-limit.pdf). These measures involve temporarily suspending investments in specific government funds, such as the G Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/DescriptionofExtraordinaryMeasures20250117.pdf). By temporarily disinvesting from these funds, the Treasury effectively lowers the amount of outstanding debt subject to the limit, thereby artificially and temporarily suppressing the reported 'Debt to the Penny' figure [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/DescriptionofExtraordinaryMeasures20250117.pdf). Historically, Congress has consistently acted to either raise or suspend the debt limit, preventing a default on national obligations [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/60887-debt-limit.pdf). These actions are inherently temporary; once the debt limit is addressed, the Treasury reverses these steps and restores the affected funds [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/DescriptionofExtraordinaryMeasures20250117.pdf). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 08, 2026 - **Closes:** May 01, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [China overtakes USAโ€™s economy by 2030?](/markets/economics/growth/china-overtakes-usa-s-economy-by-2030/) - [Costco raises hot dog combo price?](/markets/economics/inflation/costco-raises-hot-dog-combo-price/) - [Next Fed rate hike?](/markets/economics/fed/next-fed-rate-hike/) - [US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026](/markets/economics/oil-and-energy/us-gas-prices-on-apr-29-2026/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/economics/growth/us-government-debt-on-april-30-2026 If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.