# ISM Manufacturing PMI in April 2026

In Apr 2026

Updated: April 10, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Growth
KPIs

HTML: /markets/economics/growth/ism-manufacturing-pmi-in-april-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** assigns meaningfully higher odds than the **market** for At least 49 (**60.1%** vs **0.0%**), driven by its assessment that the ISM Manufacturing PMI may remain at or above this threshold despite signals of decelerating activity such as a worsening inventory spread and rising input costs.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Manufacturing activity is projected to decelerate in April 2026.** - Worsening inventory spread historically precedes manufacturing PMI deceleration.
- Rising input costs are weighing on manufacturing operations.
- April S&P Global Flash PMI forecast is below March ISM reading.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** forecasts **60.1%** **probability** of manufacturing deceleration versus 0c **market**, indicating a large gap and high payout potential.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 52 | 46.0% | 34.8% | Manufacturing activity is decelerating due to a worsening inventory spread and rising input costs. |
| At least 51 | 71.0% | 60.1% | Manufacturing activity is decelerating due to a worsening inventory spread and rising input costs. |
| At least 56 | 9.0% | 6.1% | Manufacturing activity is decelerating due to a worsening inventory spread and rising input costs. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 52 | 46.0% | 34.8% |
| At least 51 | 71.0% | 60.1% |
| At least 56 | 9.0% | 6.1% |
| At least 53 | 24.0% | 16.9% |
| At least 49 | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| At least 50 | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| At least 54 | 0.0% | 6.1% |
| At least 55 | 0.0% | 6.1% |

- Expiration: May 1, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market is characterized by extreme volatility rather than a clear directional trend. It opened at a high probability of 89.0%, then experienced a significant crash on April 4th, dropping 83 percentage points to a low of 2.0%. This was followed by an equally dramatic recovery on April 6th, with an 83-point spike that brought the price back to 84.0%. The market is currently trading near its opening highs, though it remains slightly down overall. Given that no specific news or economic data has been provided, the direct cause for these drastic price swings is not apparent from the available information.

The most critical feature of this market is the complete absence of trading activity, with a total volume of zero contracts traded. This indicates that all price movements are likely due to algorithmic adjustments by a market maker or the actions of a single participant moving their orders without any transactions occurring. The lack of volume suggests there is no market conviction or consensus behind any price level. While the chart shows a potential resistance level near 89.0% and a support level around the 1.0-2.0% mark, these levels are not confirmed by trading activity and hold little technical significance.

The current price of 84.0% implies high confidence that the April 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI will resolve above 49. However, this reading of market sentiment should be viewed with extreme caution. Without any trading volume, the price does not reflect a collective expectation or a "wisdom of the crowd." Instead, it represents a theoretical price point in an inactive market, making it an unreliable indicator of true market sentiment or the likely outcome. The extreme price swings on zero volume suggest an illiquid market susceptible to erratic changes.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: At least 49

#### 📈 April 06, 2026: 83.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 84.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 04, 2026: 83.0pp drop

Price decreased from 85.0% to 2.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: At least 52

#### 📉 April 05, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 63.0% to 47.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: At least 51

#### 📉 April 03, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 77.0% to 69.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to 'Yes' if the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI for April 2026, as published by ISM, is at least 52.0 (one decimal place); otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The market opened on April 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT. It will close early if the outcome occurs, or by May 1, 2026, at 9:59 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 49 | 84% | 94% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| At least 50 | 73% | 79% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| At least 51 | 63% | 68% | 71% | $355 | $355 |
| At least 52 | 41% | 46% | 46% | $2,179 | $1,225 |
| At least 53 | 17% | 24% | 24% | $24 | $10 |
| At least 54 | 8% | 16% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| At least 55 | 5% | 12% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| At least 56 | 3% | 8% | 9% | $290 | $290 |

## What Do Regional Manufacturing New Orders Indices Indicate?

Empire State New Orders (March 2026) | -7.9 [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2026/2026-03-empire-state-manufacturing-survey.pdf) |
Philly Fed New Orders (March 2026) | -4.3 [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2026-03) |
Kansas City Fed New Orders (March 2026) | 15 [[^]](https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-increased-moderately-in-march/) |

**March 2026 regional manufacturing surveys reported varied New Orders sub-indices**

March 2026 regional manufacturing surveys reported varied New Orders sub-indices. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated a New Orders sub-index of -7.9 [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2026/2026-03-empire-state-manufacturing-survey.pdf), while the Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported -4.3 [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2026-03). Conversely, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey showed a positive New Orders sub-index of 15 [[^]](https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-increased-moderately-in-march/), and the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey recorded 4.2 [[^]](http://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2603/2603summ).

A precise weighted average composite figure is not calculable from the provided data. This is because the specific weighting schemes or factors necessary for such a calculation are not available in the given sources [1-10]. Therefore, a consolidated composite figure using a weighted average cannot be computed with the current information.

Regional manufacturing surveys generally offer insights into national manufacturing conditions. These surveys are widely recognized as leading indicators that often precede the ISM New Orders Index [[^]](https://richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/regional_matters/2024/rm_04_04_24_regional_surveys_national_conditions). Specifically, the New Orders components within these surveys provide valuable insight into broader manufacturing demand, having demonstrated a historical correlation with the national ISM New Orders Index [[^]](https://richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/regional_matters/2024/rm_04_04_24_regional_surveys_national_conditions).

## How Do Inventory Spreads Signal Future Manufacturing Trends?

February 2026 Inventory Spread | -1.5 percentage points [[^]](https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/blud202602pmi.pdf) |
March 2026 Inventory Spread | -2.7 percentage points [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html) |
Historical PMI Indicator | Widening negative spread precedes PMI deceleration [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/3261/sector-industrial/26281/ism-new-order-and-inventory) |

**The 'Inventories' and 'Customers' Inventories' indexes showed distinct values in early 2026**

The 'Inventories' and 'Customers' Inventories' indexes showed distinct values in early 2026. In February 2026, the 'Inventories' index was 48.6 percent [[^]](https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/blud202602pmi.pdf), while the 'Customers' Inventories' index stood at 50.1 percent [[^]](https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/blud202602pmi.pdf), resulting in a spread of -1.5 percentage points. For March 2026, the 'Inventories' index increased to 49.3 percent [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html), and the 'Customers' Inventories' index rose to 52.0 percent [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html), leading to a wider spread of -2.7 percentage points.

The spread between these inventory indexes notably widened during this period. Comparing these figures, the spread between the 'Inventories' index and the 'Customers' Inventories' index widened from -1.5 percentage points in February 2026 to -2.7 percentage points in March 2026. This indicates that customers' inventories increased relative to manufacturers' inventories during these months. For both February and March 2026, the 'Customers' Inventories' index remained above the 50 percent threshold, which often signals that inventories are considered "too high" [[^]](https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/blud202602pmi.pdf).

Historically, a widening negative spread typically signals a future manufacturing deceleration. An increasing level of customers' inventories relative to manufacturers' inventories, as evidenced by a widening negative spread in this context, suggests that customers are well-stocked and may reduce future orders. This situation is typically viewed as a bearish signal for future manufacturing demand and generally precedes a deceleration in the Manufacturing PMI in the following month [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/3261/sector-industrial/26281/ism-new-order-and-inventory). High customer inventories reduce the urgency for new orders, contributing to this expected slowdown [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/3261/sector-industrial/26281/ism-new-order-and-inventory).

## What were Q1 2026 trends for manufacturing prices and supplier deliveries?

Prices Index Jan 2026 | 60.1% [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-6-january-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302675443.html) |
Prices Index Mar 2026 | 70.5% [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/ibtimes/article/marketminute-2026-3-2-inflation-alarm-ism-manufacturing-prices-index-surges-to-705-as-tariffs-bite-into-second-month-of-growth) |
Supplier Deliveries Index Mar 2026 | 54.9% [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html) |

**Both Prices and Supplier Deliveries indices showed increases in Q1 2026**

Both Prices and Supplier Deliveries indices showed increases in Q1 2026. During the first quarter of 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI's 'Prices' sub-index, reflecting input costs, consistently and rapidly rose from **60.1%** in January [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-6-january-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302675443.html) to **70.5%** in March [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/ibtimes/article/marketminute-2026-3-2-inflation-alarm-ism-manufacturing-prices-index-surges-to-705-as-tariffs-bite-into-second-month-of-growth). Concurrently, the 'Supplier Deliveries' sub-index, which measures delivery speed, also increased, moving from **52.8%** in January [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-6-january-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302675443.html) to **54.9%** by March [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html). This upward trend in the 'Supplier Deliveries' index signals a worsening of delivery delays and slower overall deliveries throughout the quarter.

External factors, not strong demand, drove slower supplier deliveries. The increase in the 'Supplier Deliveries' index during Q1 2026 appears to be primarily influenced by supply chain challenges rather than robust demand. Despite manufacturing activity expanding for three consecutive months [[^]](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/2026/04/02/steady-growth-in-manufacturing-activity-continued-in-march-ism/), reports consistently highlighted that 'Supplier Deliveries continued to slow' [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-6-january-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302675443.html). This extended lead time and increased prices for manufacturers [[^]](https://distributionstrategy.com/2026/04/manufacturing-expands-again-in-march-as-costs-delays-mount/) occurred amidst commentary about 'costs, delays mount' [[^]](https://distributionstrategy.com/2026/04/manufacturing-expands-again-in-march-as-costs-delays-mount/) and 'headwinds loom' [[^]](https://www.industrialinfo.com/news/article/us-manufacturing-activity-expands-slightly-but-headwinds-loom--355798). Specifically, rising costs and tariffs [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/ibtimes/article/marketminute-2026-3-2-inflation-alarm-ism-manufacturing-prices-index-surges-to-705-as-tariffs-bite-into-second-month-of-growth) were identified as significant contributors to these delivery challenges.

## What Does the March 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI Indicate?

March 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7% [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html) |
February 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.4% [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-4-february-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302699883.html) |
Qualitative Sentiment (Positive) | "steady growth" and "above forecasts" [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence/news/538415) |

**March 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated continued expansion and acceleration in the sector**

March 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated continued expansion and acceleration in the sector. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent for March 2026, signaling ongoing expansion as it remained above 50 percent [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html). This figure represented an increase from the 52.4 percent recorded in February 2026, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activity [[^]](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-4-february-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302699883.html). This quantitative progression clearly points to a positive trajectory for the sector.

Qualitative sentiment from respondents largely aligned with the positive quantitative trend. While a precise numerical ratio of positive-to-negative keywords from the "What Respondents Are Saying" section is not accessible without direct access to the full report, summaries of qualitative sentiment indicated a predominantly optimistic outlook [[^]](https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/iw4r202603pmi.pdf). Positive phrases cited include "steady growth" [[^]](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/2026/04/02/steady-growth-in-manufacturing-activity-continued-in-march-ism/) and performance being "above forecasts" [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-**confidence**/news/538415). Although there was an acknowledgement of "Prices Soar" [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-**confidence**/news/538415) pointing to concerns about input costs, the overall qualitative sentiment consistently reinforced the positive quantitative direction of the ISM index, affirming an expanding and accelerating manufacturing sector [[^]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-7-march-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302730721.html).

## What is the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI forecast for April 2026?

S&P Global Flash US Mfg PMI Forecast (April 2026) | 50.5 [[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/38ec9435-34cc-4704-9445-80fabf6c0120) |
Actual Release | Not yet available [Question Context] [[^]](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flash-manufacturing-pmi.asp) |
Release Schedule | Around April 23, 2026 [Question Context] [[^]](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flash-manufacturing-pmi.asp) |

**Economists forecast the April 2026 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI at 50.5**

Economists forecast the April 2026 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI at 50.5. The consensus forecast for the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 is set at 50.5 [[^]](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/38ec9435-34cc-4704-9445-80fabf6c0120). This "Flash" report provides an early estimate of the United States' manufacturing sector health, derived from data collected from purchasing managers [[^]](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flash-manufacturing-pmi.asp). A reading exceeding 50 generally signifies expansion in the manufacturing sector, whereas a reading below 50 suggests a contraction [[^]](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flash-manufacturing-pmi.asp).

Actual PMI deviation from consensus cannot be determined yet. Since the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 is slated for release around April 23, 2026, the precise release number and any deviation from the consensus forecast are not yet available [Question Context]. Both the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI are vital indicators that economists monitor to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector [[^]](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flash-manufacturing-pmi.asp). While they employ distinct survey methodologies, they typically track overarching trends within the manufacturing industry [[^]](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flash-manufacturing-pmi.asp). However, the research does not contain specific historical data on how a particular magnitude of deviation in the S&P Global Flash PMI from its consensus historically impacts the ISM PMI released a week later.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 31, 2026
- **Closes:** May 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 8 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 5 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXISMPMI-26MAR-55: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXISMPMI-26MAR-54: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXISMPMI-26MAR-53: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXISMPMI-26MAR-52: YES (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXISMPMI-26MAR-51: YES (Apr 01, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.