# Elon Musk net worth on April 30 (Bloomberg)

April 30, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Growth

HTML: /markets/economics/growth/elon-musk-net-worth-on-april-30-bloomberg/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Elon Musk's net worth to be above **$600** billion by April 30, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - SpaceX valuation reached $800 billion by December 2025.** - Discussions explored a **$1.75**-2 trillion SpaceX IPO valuation.
- SpaceX's revaluation provides strong positive impetus to net worth.
- Tesla robotaxi deployment delays negatively impact Musk's net worth.
- X secured a **$32** billion valuation in its latest funding round.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** SpaceX's revaluation bolsters the **model**'s **99.3%** **probability**, 0.3pp above the **99.0%** **market** at 1.0x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $670 billion | 15.0% | 24.7% | SpaceX's significant revaluation and potential IPO strongly boost Elon Musk's net worth. |
| Above $600 billion | 99.0% | 99.3% | SpaceX's significant revaluation and potential IPO strongly boost Elon Musk's net worth. |
| Above $700 billion | 9.0% | 11.4% | SpaceX's significant revaluation and potential IPO strongly boost Elon Musk's net worth. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $670 billion | 15.0% | 24.7% |
| Above $600 billion | 99.0% | 99.3% |
| Above $700 billion | 9.0% | 11.4% |
| Above $620 billion | 98.0% | 98.5% |
| Above $660 billion | 14.0% | 24.7% |
| Above $630 billion | 98.0% | 98.5% |
| Above $650 billion | 75.0% | 80.1% |
| Above $640 billion | 98.0% | 98.5% |
| Above $680 billion | 20.0% | 24.7% |
| Above $690 billion | 19.0% | 23.5% |
| Above $610 billion | 98.0% | 98.5% |

- Expiration: April 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market, which speculates on Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026, has displayed a consistent and strong upward trend. The perceived probability of a "YES" outcome began at a high level of 80.0% and has since climbed to 99.0%, where it currently stands. The price action shows a steady, uninterrupted ascent, with the most significant movement being the climb from 87.0% to 99.0% toward the end of the observed period. The initial price of 80.0% served as a clear support level from which the market never retreated. The current price of 99.0% represents a strong resistance point, which is typical as a market's probability approaches certainty.

The provided context offers no specific news or events to explain the catalyst for this upward price movement. Therefore, the sharp increase in probability reflects a shift in trader sentiment based on factors not detailed in the available information. The market has a total traded volume of 274 contracts, indicating a moderate level of activity over its lifetime. However, the specific data points provided show zero volume, which suggests that trading was concentrated on other days not included in the sample. This pattern can sometimes indicate that price changes occurred on relatively low volume, but the overall total suggests a baseline of interest in the market.

Overall, the chart indicates overwhelmingly bullish sentiment. The progression from an already confident 80.0% to a near-certain 99.0% demonstrates a powerful and growing consensus among participants. The market is pricing the "YES" outcome as a near certainty, with very little perceived chance of the alternative occurring by the resolution date. The stable and upward-trending price action suggests high conviction among those participating in the market.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above $640 billion

#### 📈 April 21, 2026: 41.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 98.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 15, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 43.0% to 60.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Above $620 billion

#### 📈 April 20, 2026: 26.0pp spike

Price increased from 72.0% to 98.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk's net worth is reported as above $650 billion in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update for April 30, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market opened on March 31, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT, and will close and expire early if the economic data is released, or by April 30, 2026, 5:25 PM EDT at the latest. Projected payout occurs 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $600 billion | 95% | 100% | 99% | $4,777.42 | $2,728.51 |
| Above $610 billion | 68% | 98% | 98% | $3,063.49 | $2,664.39 |
| Above $620 billion | 38% | 98% | 98% | $1,669.8 | $1,326.16 |
| Above $630 billion | 44% | 98% | 98% | $926.34 | $466.34 |
| Above $640 billion | 14% | 97% | 98% | $290.92 | $149.12 |
| Above $650 billion | 46% | 75% | 75% | $717.53 | $510.64 |
| Above $660 billion | 14% | 16% | 14% | $1,015.68 | $686.68 |
| Above $670 billion | 15% | 16% | 15% | $9,325.16 | $5,576.94 |
| Above $680 billion | 1% | 76% | 20% | $123 | $73 |
| Above $690 billion | 2% | 47% | 19% | $43.98 | $38.98 |
| Above $700 billion | 2% | 9% | 9% | $2,577.48 | $1,481.62 |

## What was SpaceX's valuation and Starlink's ARR multiple prior to Q1 2026?

SpaceX Implied Valuation | $800 billion (prior to Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-sets-800-billion-valuation-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-12-13), [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation), [[^]](https://phys.org/news/2025-12-spacex-billion-valuation-ipo.html) |
SpaceX IPO Plans | Confirmed for 2026 [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation), [[^]](https://phys.org/news/2025-12-spacex-billion-valuation-ipo.html) |
Starlink ARR Multiple (Private Round) | Not specified for this funding round [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-sets-800-billion-valuation-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-12-13), [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation), [[^]](https://phys.org/news/2025-12-spacex-billion-valuation-ipo.html), [[^]](https://www.cbinsights.com/company/space-exploration-technologies/financials), [[^]](https://www.red94.net/news/86705-million-dollar-valuations-soar-as-spacex-eyes-800b-funding-round-most-valuable-p/) |

**SpaceX achieved an $800 billion valuation in its final private funding round**

SpaceX achieved an **$800** billion valuation in its final private funding round. In December 2025, prior to Q1 2026, the company's implied valuation was approximately **$800** billion [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-sets-800-billion-valuation-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-12-13), [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation), [[^]](https://phys.org/news/2025-12-spacex-billion-valuation-ipo.html). This valuation was established through an insider share sale and related funding rounds, with Bloomberg and Reuters reporting the figure based on company letters and **market** activities [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-sets-800-billion-valuation-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-12-13), [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation). During this period, SpaceX also confirmed its intentions for an initial public offering (IPO) in 2026 [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation), [[^]](https://phys.org/news/2025-12-spacex-billion-valuation-ipo.html).

Starlink's specific ARR multiple in the private round is undisclosed. While Starlink is recognized as a significant component contributing to SpaceX's overall valuation, the available research does not specify a distinct multiple applied to Starlink's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) by lead investors in this particular private funding round [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-sets-800-billion-valuation-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-12-13), [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation), [[^]](https://phys.org/news/2025-12-spacex-billion-valuation-ipo.html), [[^]](https://www.cbinsights.com/company/space-exploration-technologies/financials), [[^]](https://www.red94.net/news/86705-million-dollar-valuations-soar-as-spacex-eyes-800b-funding-round-most-valuable-p/). Discussions occurring in April 2026, which fall after the specified period, did explore potential IPO valuations as high as **$1.75** trillion or **$2** trillion, often highlighting Starlink's role and growth prospects in these projections [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/how-math-works-175-trillion-spacex-valuation-2026-04-08/), [[^]](https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261779128-starlink-spacexipo-rocket-launch-tradingkey), [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo-draws-2-trillion-173642654.html), [[^]](https://marketwise.com/investing/spacex-ipo-2-trillion-starlink-us-mobile-deal/). However, these later valuations and related financial analyses pertain to IPO expectations rather than the specific ARR multiple used by investors in the private funding round prior to Q1 2026.

## Did Tesla Launch Level 4/5 Robotaxis in 5 Cities by Q4 2025?

Nevada DMV Approval | All-Clear" for robotaxi by November 2025 [[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-dmv-approval-nevada-autonomous-cars-self-certification-2025-11) |
San Francisco Bay Area Service | Service brought to area by July 2025 [[^]](https://teslanorth.com/2025/07/31/tesla-brings-robotaxi-service-to-san-francisco-bay-area) |
Robotaxi Launch Pushback | Reported in April 2026 for five US cities [[^]](https://electrek.co/2026/04/22/tesla-seems-to-say-robotaxi-launch-will-be-pushed-back-in-5-us-cities/) |

**Tesla made progress toward robotaxi services and secured some approvals**

Tesla made progress toward robotaxi services and secured some approvals. By the end of Q4 2025, Tesla achieved several regulatory milestones and initiated limited service introductions for its robotaxi operations. The Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) issued an "All-Clear" for the company's robotaxi operations in the state by November 2025 [[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-dmv-approval-nevada-autonomous-cars-self-certification-2025-11). Tesla reportedly introduced robotaxi services to the San Francisco Bay Area by July 2025 [[^]](https://teslanorth.com/2025/07/31/tesla-brings-robotaxi-service-to-san-francisco-bay-area) and expanded driverless robotaxi services from Austin to two additional cities in Texas [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/tesla-expands-driverless-robotaxi-services-023200985.html). Additionally, an announcement was made regarding plans to expand to five new markets [[^]](https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-announces-five-new-markets-robotaxi-will-expand-to-next/).

Widespread Level 4/5 robotaxi commercial launch in five cities was not achieved. Despite these developments, evidence suggests that the broader goal of commercially launching fully approved driverless Level 4/5 robotaxi services in at least five major US metropolitan areas was not met by the end of 2025. Details regarding full Level 4/5 driverless regulatory approval and widespread commercial launch in all these areas by the the specified deadline remain ambiguous across available sources. A report from April 2026, subsequent to the Q4 2025 period, indicated that the launch of Tesla's robotaxi service would be pushed back in five US cities, implying these launches had not occurred as planned by the Q4 2025 deadline [[^]](https://electrek.co/2026/04/22/tesla-seems-to-say-robotaxi-launch-will-be-pushed-back-in-5-us-cities/). Furthermore, while over 1,000 robotaxi vehicles were registered in California by December 2025, the description mentioning "drivers" [[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-california-robotaxi-registered-vehicles-drivers-2025-12?rand=868) suggests these were not necessarily fully driverless Level 4/5 operations, with other reports stating that California service was "still a long way off" [[^]](https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/teslas-california-robotaxi-service-is-still-a-long-way-off/). Official company announcements during the Q4 2025 earnings call [[^]](https://ilovetesla.com/teslas-q4-2025-earnings-call-margins-rebound-energy-soars-and-the-great-pivot-to-robots-and-ai/) did not prominently feature the achievement of five fully approved and commercially launched Level 4/5 driverless robotaxi services.

## How Many TSLA Shares Did Elon Musk Pledge for Loans?

Pledged TSLA Shares | 278,393,314 shares (as of April 2023 proxy statement) [[^]](https://newsweek.com/elon-musk-facing-margin-call-tesla-stock-2047059) |
Collateral Maintenance Ratio | No less than four to one (4:1) of the total principal loan amount [[^]](https://www.ifre.com/people-and-markets/2311443/third-of-musks-tesla-shares-tied-up-in-margin-loans) |
Source Proxy Statement Date | April 28, 2023 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312523094075/d451342ddef14a.htm) |

**Elon Musk pledged a substantial number of Tesla shares for loans**

Elon Musk pledged a substantial number of Tesla shares for loans. As detailed in Tesla's definitive proxy statement filed on April 28, 2023, Elon Musk had committed 278,393,314 shares of Tesla stock as collateral for personal loans [[^]](https://www.ifre.com/people-and-markets/2311443/third-of-musks-tesla-shares-tied-up-in-margin-loans). Although a subsequent definitive proxy statement was filed on September 17, 2025 [[^]](https://content.edgar-online.com/ExternalLink/EDGAR/0001104659-25-090866.html?hash=b7da0e7675e470db3efa2ee5db2f753b4ffb83ad3a547ebae67fe25651e5a415&dest=tm252289-12_def14a_htm), the specific quantity of shares pledged according to this more recent filing is not explicitly detailed in the provided external sources [[^]](https://www.ifre.com/people-and-markets/2311443/third-of-musks-tesla-shares-tied-up-in-margin-loans).

The pledged shares maintain a specific collateral-to-loan ratio. The publicly disclosed maintenance price threshold stipulates that the **market** value of the collateral must be no less than four times (4:1) the total principal amount of the associated personal loans [[^]](https://www.ifre.com/people-and-markets/2311443/third-of-musks-tesla-shares-tied-up-in-margin-loans). Should the **market** value of these pledged shares experience a significant decline and fall below this mandated 4:1 ratio, Mr. Musk may be required to either provide additional shares as collateral or repay a portion of his outstanding debt to fulfill the margin obligations [[^]](https://newsweek.com/elon-musk-facing-margin-call-tesla-stock-2047059).

## What Was X's Valuation in its Latest Funding Round?

New Equity Financing | Close to $1 billion (March 2025) [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/elon-musk-s-x-raises-close-to-1-billion-in-fresh-equity-funding?srnd=phx-technology) |
Company Valuation | $32 billion (March 2025) [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/elon-musk-s-x-raises-close-to-1-billion-in-fresh-equity-funding?srnd=phx-technology) |
Performance Ratchets for Musk's Equity | Not detailed in available information [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/elon-musk-s-x-raises-close-to-1-billion-in-fresh-equity-funding?srnd=phx-technology) |

**X secured significant equity funding at a $32 billion valuation**

X secured significant equity funding at a **$32** billion valuation.
In its first major external equity financing round post-2023, X (formerly Twitter) raised nearly **$1** billion in new equity funding around March 19-20, 2025 [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/elon-musk-s-x-raises-close-to-1-billion-in-fresh-equity-funding?srnd=phx-technology). This investment round officially valued the company at **$32** billion [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/elon-musk-s-x-raises-close-to-1-billion-in-fresh-equity-funding?srnd=phx-technology).

The deal structure lacked specific performance-based equity ratchets.
Available web research indicates that the terms of this **$32** billion valuation financing round did not include specific performance ratchets [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/elon-musk-s-x-raises-close-to-1-billion-in-fresh-equity-funding?srnd=phx-technology). There were no stated conditions tied to user growth or payment-feature adoption that would impact Elon Musk's equity stake [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/elon-musk-s-x-raises-close-to-1-billion-in-fresh-equity-funding?srnd=phx-technology). The details of the funding primarily focused on the capital raised and the company's valuation.

## What is SpaceX's 409A Valuation After Starship Full Launch?

Starship Full Orbital Launch & Recovery Status | Has not yet occurred [[^]](https://space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-catches-super-heavy-booster-on-starship-flight-7-test-but-loses-upper-stage-video-photos) |
SpaceX Overall Valuation | Exceeds $350 billion [[^]](https://zerogtalent.com/blog/spacex-employee-stock-options-2026) |
409A Valuation Purpose | Internal assessment for stock option grants [[^]](https://augustuswealth.com/blog/spacex-409a-update-planning-potential-june-2026-ipo/) |

**A specific 409A valuation for a hypothetical event is unavailable**

A specific 409A valuation for a hypothetical event is unavailable. The "first fully successful orbital launch and recovery of both a Starship upper stage and a Super Heavy booster" has not yet been achieved [[^]](https://space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-catches-super-heavy-booster-on-starship-flight-7-test-but-loses-upper-stage-video-photos). For example, Starship Flight 7 successfully caught the Super Heavy booster but lost the upper stage [[^]](https://space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-catches-super-heavy-booster-on-starship-flight-7-test-but-loses-upper-stage-video-photos). Therefore, an updated 409A valuation specifically following this hypothetical event cannot be reported. A company's 409A valuation is an internal assessment primarily used for determining the fair **market** value of common stock for stock option grants, and these valuations are generally not publicly announced [[^]](https://augustuswealth.com/blog/spacex-409a-update-planning-potential-june-2026-ipo/).

SpaceX's overall valuation has surpassed **$350** billion in recent years. While a valuation specifically tied to the described hypothetical event is unavailable, SpaceX's overall valuation has been reported to have surpassed **$350** billion [[^]](https://zerogtalent.com/blog/spacex-employee-stock-options-2026). Company valuation, including internal 409A assessments, is generally influenced by significant operational achievements, such as successful Starship flights, and overall business growth [[^]](https://augustuswealth.com/blog/spacex-409a-update-planning-potential-june-2026-ipo/). Secondary **market** platforms, such as EquityZen or Forge Global, facilitate the trading of private company shares, providing pre-IPO valuations based on investor demand [[^]](https://forgeglobal.com/spacex_ipo/). These platforms offer a **market**-driven perspective on a company's value, which may not always perfectly align with a company's internal 409A valuation. However, specific, current secondary **market** trading data points from these platforms are not detailed in the provided sources to offer a direct numerical comparison to any internal 409A assessment [[^]](https://forgeglobal.com/spacex_ipo/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 07, 2026
- **Closes:** April 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 5 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 2 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T700: NO (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T680: NO (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T660: NO (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T640: YES (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T620: YES (Mar 31, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.