# US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026

In Q1 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: GDP

HTML: /markets/economics/gdp/us-nominal-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026 to be above **0.5%**, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Professional forecasters anticipate moderate US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026.** - Typical nominal GDP growth forecasts range from **3.8%** to **5.0%**.
- The economy's structural health primarily influences Q1 2026 nominal GDP growth.
- **Market** consensus broadly expects nominal GDP growth to exceed **1.0%**.
- Official U.S. GDP estimates will determine Q1 2026 growth resolution.
- Economic headwinds are noted despite the moderate growth projections.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.1%** **probability** is slightly above the 99c **market**, reflecting strong consensus for moderate nominal GDP growth.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 2.0% | 17.0% | 19.0% | Model higher by 2.0pp |
| Above 1.5% | 40.0% | 43.5% | Model higher by 3.5pp |
| Above 1.0% | 86.0% | 87.7% | Model higher by 1.7pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 2.0% | 17.0% | 19.0% |
| Above 1.5% | 40.0% | 43.5% |
| Above 1.0% | 86.0% | 87.7% |
| Above 0.5% | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| Above 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% |

- Expiration: April 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a strong upward trend, beginning at a high probability of 82.0% and climbing to its current level of 99.0%. The most significant movement was a sharp 16 percentage point spike on April 24, 2026, which took the price from 82.0% to 98.0%. This jump consolidated market expectations at a much higher probability level in a single day. Since then, the price has continued to grind slightly higher, reaching 99.0%.

The provided context does not offer a specific catalyst, such as an economic data release or news event, to explain the dramatic price increase on April 24. The total volume of 201 contracts suggests moderate interest over the life of the market. However, the lack of significant volume recorded during the price spike itself could indicate that the shift was caused by a few influential trades in a less liquid market, rather than a broad-based reaction to new information. This suggests that while sentiment shifted decisively, the conviction may not have been tested by heavy trading activity at that specific moment.

The chart shows a clear support level at the starting price of 82.0%, which was never violated. The current price near 99.0% acts as a ceiling or resistance, which is common as a market approaches near-certainty. Overall, the price action communicates an extremely high and solidifying market sentiment. Participants have consistently priced in a "YES" resolution, with conviction growing over time to a point of near-unanimous agreement that the specified nominal GDP growth outcome for Q1 2026 will occur.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 2.5%

#### 📉 April 29, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 12.0% to 2.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Above 0.5%

#### 📈 April 24, 2026: 16.0pp spike

Price increased from 82.0% to 98.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Above 1.5%

#### 📉 April 22, 2026: 36.0pp drop

Price decreased from 72.0% to 36.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 21, 2026: 35.0pp spike

Price increased from 37.0% to 72.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the U.S. nominal GDP percent change for Q1 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent, is above 1.5% as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s FRED series. It resolves to NO if the figure is 1.5% or below. The market closes at 8:25 AM ET on April 30, 2026, with data expected at 8:30 AM ET and a projected payout at 11:00 AM ET on the same day. The nominal GDP percent change is calculated by setting FRED units to "Percent Change" and is not annualized.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0.5% | 97% | 99% | 99% | $265.04 | $255.04 |
| Above 1.0% | 84% | 91% | 86% | $1,880.15 | $1,041 |
| Above 1.5% | 35% | 43% | 40% | $1,938.1 | $1,376.52 |
| Above 2.0% | 16% | 21% | 17% | $5,322.63 | $4,718.88 |
| Above 2.5% | 2% | 11% | 2% | $4 | $4 |

## What Factors Influence US Nominal GDP Growth in Q1 2026?

Most Critical Factor | Overall underlying economic conditions (weak foundations, economic headwinds) [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/) |
Q1 2026 Growth Forecast | Modest growth [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/) |
Specific GDP Growth Projection | 0.5% [[^]](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/us-gdp-growth-slows-sharply-to-0-5-percent-in-q1-2026-signaling-economic/69163032) |

**The economy's structural health will primarily determine Q1 2026 nominal GDP growth**

The economy's structural health will primarily determine Q1 2026 nominal GDP growth. The overall underlying structural health and resilience of the US economy is expected to be the primary determinant for nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026. This includes what is described as its "weak foundations" and persistent "economic headwinds" [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/). These systemic issues and ongoing pressures are anticipated to profoundly influence the economy's capacity for expansion, indicating that deeply rooted factors will be the main drivers of economic performance during this period [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/).

Forecasters anticipate modest growth, with some projecting a significant slowdown. Despite expectations of modest growth for the US economy in Q1 2026, some analyses project a significant slowdown, with nominal GDP growth potentially reaching as low as **0.5%** [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/). This subdued outlook is seen as a signal of considerable economic headwinds for investors and highlights the critical role of established economic foundations and ongoing challenges in shaping the actual growth trajectory [[^]](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/us-gdp-growth-slows-sharply-to-0-5-percent-in-q1-2026-signaling-economic/69163032). Such performance will affect both real economic output and price levels [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/).

## What Are the Q1 2026 US Nominal GDP Growth Probabilities?

Expected US GDP Growth Q1 2026 | 0.5% (sharp slowdown expected) [[^]](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/us-gdp-growth-slows-sharply-to-0-5-percent-in-q1-2026-signaling-economic/69163032) |
Professional Forecaster Outlook Q1 2026 | Modest growth with weak foundations [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/) |
Prediction Market Sentiment | Pricing various probabilities for nominal GDP outcomes [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026) |

**Probabilities for Q1 2026 US nominal GDP growth are shifting**

Probabilities for Q1 2026 US nominal GDP growth are shifting. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, are actively tracking and adjusting the odds for various nominal GDP outcomes, with specific attention paid to scenarios where growth might fall below **1.0%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026). These **market** movements reflect an aggregation of sentiment, complemented by critical projections from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q1 2026, which also informs nominal GDP growth expectations [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026).

Anticipated sharp deceleration in real GDP influences nominal growth. A notable recent development influencing these probabilities is the expectation of a sharp deceleration in US GDP growth to **0.5%** in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/us-gdp-growth-slows-sharply-to-0-5-percent-in-q1-2026-signaling-economic/69163032). While this figure typically refers to real GDP, such a significant slowdown in real economic activity would generally lead to a downward revision of expectations for nominal GDP growth, unless offset by a dramatic rise in inflation. This anticipated slowdown suggests potential economic challenges for investors [[^]](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/us-gdp-growth-slows-sharply-to-0-5-percent-in-q1-2026-signaling-economic/69163032). Further professional assessments, including Deloitte Insights' US Economic Forecast [[^]](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html) and CEPR's GDP preview, which describes "modest growth with weak foundations" [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/), collectively indicate a constrained growth environment for the quarter.

Real-time indicators and analyses suggest lower nominal growth probabilities. Real-time economic indicators, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow **model**, which provided an update on January 22, 2026 [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/updates/2026/01/22), further contribute to this outlook. Although GDPNow specifically forecasts real GDP, its continuous adjustments based on incoming data are closely observed and influence broader perceptions of economic momentum, thereby impacting overall nominal GDP growth expectations. The cumulative effect of these analyses and indicators points to a general shift towards lower nominal GDP growth probabilities compared to earlier, more optimistic projections.

## What Are the US Nominal GDP Growth Projections for Q1 2026?

Market Consensus Q1 2026 GDP Growth | greater than 1.0% [[^]](https://fieldestimate.org/markets/polymarket/us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026-1-0) |
Counter-Argument Q1 2026 GDP Growth | 0.5% [[^]](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/us-gdp-growth-slows-sharply-to-0-5-percent-in-q1-2026-signaling-economic/69163032) |
Polymarket Likelihood (GDP not [[^]](https://fieldestimate.org/markets/polymarket/us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026-1-0) |

**The current market consensus indicates that US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026 is widely expected to exceed 1.0%**

The current **market** consensus indicates that US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026 is widely expected to exceed **1.0%**. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, show a strong **probability** of approximately **79%** that growth will not fall below this **1.0%** threshold, suggesting general optimism for economic expansion [[^]](https://fieldestimate.org/markets/polymarket/us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026-1-0). However, a significant counter-argument projects a much weaker outcome for the same period, with some forecasts as low as **0.5%**, directly contradicting the prevailing **market** sentiment for robust growth [[^]](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/us-gdp-growth-slows-sharply-to-0-5-percent-in-q1-2026-signaling-economic/69163032).

Concerns about economic durability underpin a more pessimistic forecast for Q1 2026. This outlook is supported by several underlying concerns regarding the economy's foundational strength, with reports characterizing the period as one of 'modest growth with weak foundations' and highlighting 'fragility beneath the surface' in the overall growth trajectory [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/). Analysts also point to 'hidden risks' facing the US economy in 2026 and anticipate a broader global economic slowdown, which could exert additional pressure on US performance [[^]](https://economisttribune.com/hidden-risks-us-economy-in-2026/). Furthermore, recent downward revisions for other Q1 periods, such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate dropping from **3.2%** to **2.1%**, reinforce the argument for potentially weaker growth in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278141581).

## What is the US Nominal GDP Growth Outlook for Q1 2026?

SPF Median Forecast | 4.3% [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026) |
Prediction Market Highest Probability | 4.0% to 5.0% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026) |
Deloitte Insights Forecast | 4.7% [[^]](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html) |

**Informed participants broadly predict moderate US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026**

Informed participants broadly predict moderate US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026. A consensus among key informed participants suggests nominal GDP growth will generally fall within the **3.8%** to **5.0%** range for the first quarter of 2026. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projects a median growth rate of **4.3%** [[^]](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026), while prediction markets indicate the highest probabilities for growth between **4.0%** and **5.0%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026). These signals from professional forecasters and **market** participants reflect a consistent outlook for US nominal GDP growth.

Institutional analyses corroborate these forecasts, projecting similar nominal GDP growth rates. Deloitte Insights forecasts nominal GDP growth for Q1 2026 at **4.7%** [[^]](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html). Similarly, an analysis by Ainvest notes a general expert consensus anticipating nominal GDP growth ranging from **3.8%** to **4.8%**, factoring in expected inflationary pressures and structural policy impacts [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/q1-2026-gdp-navigating-forecast-structural-policy-shifts-2602/). The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) expects Q1 2026 nominal GDP growth to be approximately **4.0%**, partly attributed to persistent inflation during the period [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/). These combined signals point towards a Q1 2026 nominal GDP growth rate broadly centered around **4.0%** to **5.0%**.

## When Will US Nominal GDP Q1 2026 Growth Be Resolved?

Official Q1 2026 GDP Estimates | Advance, Second, and Third (or Final) estimates [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule), [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full) |
Advance Estimate Release (Q1 2026) | Late April 2026 [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule), [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full) |
Market Impact of Estimates | Advance causes initial movement, Third/Final resolves markets [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule), [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full) |

**Official U.S**

Official U.S. GDP estimates are key to resolving Q1 2026 growth. The primary events that will determine US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026 and lead to significant price movement are the official data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The BEA typically publishes three estimates for quarterly GDP: an "Advance" estimate, a "Second" estimate, and a "Third" or "Final" estimate [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule), [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full). For Q1 2026 (January-March), the Advance Estimate is generally released in late April 2026, the Second Estimate in late May 2026, and the Third/Final Estimate in late June 2026, following the BEA's regular schedule [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule), [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full). The Advance Estimate often generates the most substantial immediate **market** reaction, while the Third or Final Estimate usually serves as the definitive figure for **market** resolution [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule), [[^]](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full).

Unofficial forecasts and reports influence **market** sentiment before official releases. In addition to the official BEA releases, other factors can influence price movement ahead of the final resolution. Tools such as the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow provide real-time forecasts for current quarter GDP, which can influence expectations and **market** prices prior to official releases [[^]](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow). Furthermore, preliminary reports and analyses, like those from institutions providing a "GDP Preview Q1 2026" [[^]](https://cepr.net/publications/gdp-preview-first-quarter-2026-report/), and speculative news reports discussing potential outcomes, such as a **0.5%** growth [[^]](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/us-gdp-growth-slows-sharply-to-0-5-percent-in-q1-2026-signaling-economic/69163032), contribute to **market** sentiment and can trigger significant price adjustments before the official figures are published.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 14, 2026
- **Closes:** April 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

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### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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