# Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

On Sep 16, 2026

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Fed

HTML: /markets/economics/fed/fed-funds-rate-after-sep-2026-meeting/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the Fed funds rate to be Above **2.75%** after the Sep 2026 meeting, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Consensus forecasts and market pricing expect Fed rate cuts by September 2026.** - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs anticipate Fed funds rate around **3.00%**-**3.50%**.
- The Federal Reserve's SEP projects a **3.4%** median fed funds rate for 2026.
- **Market** pricing does not expect conditions for rates significantly above **4.00%**.
- Persistent inflation or strong labor **market** would necessitate holding higher rates.
- Future fiscal policies from the 2024 election winner may impact inflation.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 94c, the **market** prices higher than the **87.6%** **model** estimate, implying expected rate cuts by Sep 2026.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 3.50% | 83.0% | 68.9% | Consensus forecasts indicate federal funds rate cuts are expected by September 2026. |
| Above 3.75% | 23.0% | 13.5% | Consensus forecasts indicate federal funds rate cuts are expected by September 2026. |
| Above 3.25% | 87.0% | 75.2% | Consensus forecasts indicate federal funds rate cuts are expected by September 2026. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 3.50% | 83.0% | 68.9% |
| Above 3.75% | 23.0% | 13.5% |
| Above 3.25% | 87.0% | 75.2% |
| Above 2.75% | 94.0% | 87.6% |
| Above 3.00% | 94.0% | 87.6% |
| Above 4.00% | 10.0% | 5.8% |
| Above 4.25% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Above 4.50% | 1.0% | 3.0% |
| Above 4.75% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Above 5.00% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Above 5.25% | 1.0% | 0.5% |

- Expiration: September 16, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has demonstrated a highly stable, sideways trading pattern. The price has consistently remained within a narrow 4-point range, moving between 92.0% and 96.0%. Starting at 93.0%, the contract currently trades at 94.0%, indicating very little net change over the observed period. This lack of significant price movement suggests a strong and unwavering market consensus. The provided context does not contain specific news events that would have caused significant price spikes or drops, which aligns with the observed stability in the chart. Market sentiment appears firmly entrenched, with a high probability consistently priced in.

The trading volume of 835 total contracts, distributed over 76 data points, suggests moderate but not aggressive market activity. The low volatility combined with this volume pattern indicates that there is broad agreement among participants, with little new information or speculative pressure to shift the price significantly. The 92.0% level has acted as a clear support, while the 96.0% level has served as resistance, effectively capping the price within this channel. Overall, the chart reflects a market with high conviction, anticipating the outcome with a probability consistently in the mid-90s.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Above 3.50%

#### 📈 May 07, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 68.0% to 83.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point spike on May 07, 2026, was the outcome of the Federal Reserve's May 6–7, 2026 FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% [[^]](https://investozora.com/fed-rate-decision-may-2026/)[[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/feds-latest-rate-cut-bets-might-surprise-many-americans-as-experts-debate-iran-war-inflation-jobs-impact). Concurrently, commentary emerged regarding dissent within the FOMC, where officials reportedly favored "agnostic" or "less cut-presumptive" language for future rate guidance despite supporting unchanged rates [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-collins-favored-changing-fomc-105000402.html). This signaled a reduced likelihood of rate cuts by September 2026, bolstering the "Above 3.50%" outcome. No social media activity was identified as a primary or contributing driver from the available sources.

#### 📈 May 04, 2026: 25.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 82.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 25.0 percentage point spike was the market's re-evaluation following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 29, 2026, which held rates steady but recorded unusually high dissent [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html). This prompted news reports in early May 2026 indicating that the market-implied probability of the Fed lifting rates at least once before year-end jumped, with CME FedWatch showing increased odds of a 25 basis point hike [[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-hike-interest-rates-inflation-outlook-economy-iran-war-2026-5). This rapidly shifted market sentiment, increasing the perceived likelihood of the Fed funds rate remaining above 3.50% after the September 2026 meeting. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant.

### Outcome: Above 3.75%

#### 📈 May 06, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 24.0%

**What happened:** The provided information does not clearly identify a primary driver for the 14.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 3.75%" outcome on May 6, 2026. On that date, traditional news reported headlines about an Iran peace plan, which coincided with tumbling Treasury yields and sliding oil prices [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/treasury-yields-tumble-on-report-of-us-iran-peace-plan-.html). Such developments typically suggest reduced inflationary pressures, likely decreasing the probability of higher interest rates, rather than causing a spike in expectations for rates above 3.75% [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/treasury-yields-tumble-on-report-of-us-iran-peace-plan-.html). No social media activity from key figures or other market catalysts for this specific upward movement are identified in the provided sources.

#### 📉 May 05, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 29.0% to 10.0%

**What happened:** No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified that would explain the 19.0 percentage point drop on May 05, 2026. The available traditional news narrative from Business Insider around May 5, 2026, indicated that traders' odds shifted toward a possible rate hike rather than cuts [[^]](https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-hike-interest-rates-inflation-outlook-economy-iran-war-2026-5). This reported sentiment would logically suggest an *increase* in the probability of the federal funds rate being "Above 3.75%", directly contradicting the observed market movement. Therefore, based on the provided sources, a primary driver for this specific market drop cannot be definitively identified, and social media appears irrelevant.

#### 📈 May 03, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 27.0%

**What happened:** The reported 15.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for the federal funds rate after the Sep 2026 meeting, predicting "Above 3.75%", is not supported by the provided web research. Official data indicate the effective federal funds rate was 3.64% within a target range of 3.50%–3.75% as of May 1–May 7, 2026 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm). Therefore, a primary driver, whether from social media, traditional news, or market factors, cannot be identified for a movement that lacks corroboration in the available sources.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the Federal Reserve's official website shows the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is greater than 3.75% following its September 16, 2026 meeting; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is verified from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors website. Trading closes on September 16, 2026, at 1:55 PM EDT, with a projected payout at 2:10 PM EDT, and insider trading is prohibited.

## Market Discussion

As of April 29, 2026, the market-implied outcome for the September 16–17, 2026 FOMC decision shows a 74% probability of "No change" to the Fed funds rate, while a "25 bps decrease" has a 19% probability [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-568). This market sentiment aligns with late April 2026 economic coverage, which cited CME FedWatch's indication of no immediate rate cuts and framed 2026 cuts as likely to be later rather than immediate [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/fed-rate-predictions-2026-154647304.html).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 2.75% | 94% | 96% | 94% | $3,335 | $2,753 |
| Above 3.00% | 88% | 92% | 94% | $3,169 | $2,289 |
| Above 3.25% | 83% | 87% | 87% | $4,344.69 | $1,582.43 |
| Above 3.50% | 81% | 85% | 83% | $10,858.77 | $5,087.93 |
| Above 3.75% | 20% | 24% | 23% | $5,613.16 | $1,544.16 |
| Above 4.00% | 10% | 16% | 10% | $2,340.03 | $1,710.03 |
| Above 4.25% | 1% | 6% | 7% | $1,897 | $1,547 |
| Above 4.50% | 1% | 5% | 1% | $1,484 | $762 |
| Above 4.75% | 1% | 4% | 5% | $701 | $321 |
| Above 5.00% | 2% | 3% | 4% | $256 | $182 |
| Above 5.25% | 1% | 4% | 1% | $254 | $158 |

## What key economic indicators, specifically from the CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls reports through mid-2026, would signal a need for the FOMC to hold rates above 4.00%?

CPI-U (March 2026) | +3.3% y/y (with energy as driver) [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm) |
Nonfarm Payrolls (March 2026) | +178,000 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm?gsid=4ad35f49-edfe-44c5-95b4-e08abff515dd) |
Prediction-Market Proxy (Post-Sep 2026) | 3.13% midpoint [[^]](https://rateprobability.com/fed) |

**Persistent inflation beyond energy shocks and a strong labor market signal higher rates**

Persistent inflation beyond energy shocks and a strong labor **market** signal higher rates. To warrant the Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) holding interest rates above **4.00%**, key indicators would include sustained Consumer Price Index (CPI) strength not primarily driven by energy shocks, alongside a labor **market** and wage environment conducive to delaying rate cuts [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm). CPI persistence beyond global energy prices, which the Federal Reserve has explicitly cited as a factor in elevated inflation, is the most crucial inflation signal for maintaining restrictive rates [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm). Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI-U for March 2026 reported a +**3.3%** year-over-year increase with energy as a significant contributor, continued CPI strength from other sectors would be necessary to justify a federal funds rate above **4.00%** [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm).

Recent labor **market** data supports delaying rate cuts, contrary to current **market** pricing. The March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report, which showed total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by +178,000, unemployment at **4.3%**, and average hourly earnings rising +**0.2%** month-over-month (+**3.5%** year-over-year), presents a labor-**market** and wage mix consistent with delaying rate cuts [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm?gsid=4ad35f49-edfe-44c5-95b4-e08abff515dd). Such conditions would further support maintaining a higher policy rate if CPI remains elevated [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm?gsid=4ad35f49-edfe-44c5-95b4-e08abff515dd). However, the prediction-**market** proxy currently implies a post–September 16, 2026, meeting midpoint around **3.13%**, indicating that **market** pricing does not anticipate the need to hold rates above **4.00%** unless material surprises in future CPI or Nonfarm Payrolls data significantly reprice this projected path [[^]](https://rateprobability.com/fed).

## What are the core economic arguments from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan that support a Fed funds rate between 3.00% and 3.50% by September 2026?

Goldman Sachs Fed Funds Terminal Level | 3.00%–3.25% (Goldman Sachs [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026?https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Foil-prices-iran-goldman-sachs-trump-economy-energy-crude-futures-2026-2%3F=)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026)) |
Goldman Sachs Economic Growth Forecast 2026 | 2.0%–2.5% (Goldman Sachs [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026?https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Foil-prices-iran-goldman-sachs-trump-economy-energy-crude-futures-2026-2%3F=)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026)) |
FOMC March 2026 Target Framework | 3.50%–3.75% (FOMC minutes [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm)) |

**Goldman Sachs anticipates rate cuts, reaching 3.00%-3.25% by 2026**

Goldman Sachs anticipates rate cuts, reaching **3.00%**-**3.25%** by 2026. The institution projects a terminal level of **3.00%**–**3.25%** for the Fed funds rate by September 2026, specifically anticipating a pause in January 2026 followed by rate cuts in March and June 2026 [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026?https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Foil-prices-iran-goldman-sachs-trump-economy-energy-crude-futures-2026-**2%**3F=)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026). This outlook is underpinned by expectations of economic growth reaccelerating to **2.0%**–**2.5%** in 2026 and a cooling of inflation, which would mitigate risks to the easing path. Goldman Sachs also cites below-trend underlying job growth and favorable wage and income effects, suggesting that these labor **market** dynamics will further justify a gradual easing over time [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026?https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Foil-prices-iran-goldman-sachs-trump-economy-energy-crude-futures-2026-**2%**3F=)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026).

J.P. Morgan expects steady rates, but within the target range. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, conversely, anticipates the Federal Reserve to maintain current rates through at least the first half of 2026, believing that policy is near neutral and the Committee will await a decisive shift in the balance of risks before acting [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/what-is-next-for-the-federal-reserve/). The institution also highlights potential inflation acceleration in mid-2026, stemming from factors like tariffs and fiscal stimulus, as a reason to avoid early rate cuts [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/what-is-next-for-the-federal-reserve/). J.P. Morgan Global Research similarly suggests that 2026 will primarily involve holding rates steady, with any future cuts contingent on a material weakening of the labor **market** or worsening energy fallout [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts). However, even with this cautious approach, the actual Fed target framework as of March 18, 2026, was **3.50%**–**3.75%** [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm), indicating that by September 2026, the rate could still fall within the **3.00%**–**3.50%** band through limited or gradual adjustments rather than a rapid easing cycle [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts).

## How do the Federal Reserve's own Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2026 compare with the path of interest rates implied by the Fed funds futures market?

Median Fed funds rate end-2026 (SEP) | 3.4% [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm) |
SEP 70% interval end-2026 | 2.4% to 3.9% [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm) |
Market-implied rate Sep 2026 | Not available for comparison [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html) |

**The Federal Reserve projects a 3.4% median federal funds rate by 2026**

The Federal Reserve projects a **3.4%** median federal funds rate by 2026. The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released on March 18, 2026, indicates a median federal funds rate of **3.4%** for the end of 2026. This projection also shows a **70%** **confidence** interval for the rate, ranging from **2.4%** to **3.9%** for the same period [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm).

A direct comparison with futures **market** implied rates is not possible. A direct comparison between the Fed's SEP and the implied interest rate level from the Fed funds futures **market** for the September 2026 meeting cannot be made based on the provided research. While resources like CME's FedWatch methodology and Polymarket prediction markets exist, the retrieved sources do not contain a citable, specific implied interest rate level for September 2026 from the futures **market**. Consequently, the necessary data for a direct comparison of specific rate levels is unavailable [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html).

## What do current estimates from the New York Fed and academic models indicate for the neutral rate of interest (r-star), and how does this affect long-term rate expectations for 2026?

New York Fed DSGE Model 2026 Real R-star | 1.9% [[^]](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/03/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-march-2026) |
FOMC March 2026 SEP Implied R-star | Approximately 1.1% [[^]](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/comparing-fomc-estimate-r-star-alternative-estimates)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm) |
Cleveland Fed 2025Q2 Real R-star | 1.5% [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2025/ec-202508-neutral-interest-rates-and-monetary-policy-stance) |

**Current estimates for the neutral rate of interest (r-star) show variations across different models**

Current estimates for the neutral rate of interest (r-star) show variations across different models. The New York Fed's DSGE **model** projects a real r* of **1.9%** for 2026 [[^]](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/03/the-new-york-fed-dsge-**model**-forecast-march-2026). In contrast, the FOMC's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a median longer-run nominal federal funds rate of **3.1%**, suggesting an approximate real r* of **1.1%** when accounting for an assumed **2%** inflation rate [[^]](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/comparing-fomc-estimate-r-star-alternative-estimates)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm).

Long-term projections for r-star and federal funds rates vary across models. Beyond 2026, the New York Fed DSGE **model** anticipates a gradual decrease in the real r*, from **1.9%** in 2026 to **1.1%** by 2029 [[^]](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/03/the-new-york-fed-dsge-**model**-forecast-march-2026). Other estimates include the Cleveland Fed's real r* of **1.5%** for 2025Q2, which corresponds to a nominal neutral rate of **3.7%** [[^]](https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2025/ec-202508-neutral-interest-rates-and-monetary-policy-stance), and a geometric mean calculation yielding an r* of about **1.43%** [[^]](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/comparing-fomc-estimate-r-star-alternative-estimates). The FOMC's March 2026 SEP further outlines long-term federal funds rate expectations, forecasting a median of **3.4%** for 2026, followed by **3.1%** for both 2027 and 2028 [[^]](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/comparing-fomc-estimate-r-star-alternative-estimates)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm).

## How might the fiscal policy agenda of the 2024 presidential election winner impact inflation and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions leading up to September 2026?

Core Goods PCE Price Impact | 3.1% increase by February 2026 (Federal Reserve research) [[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/04/51749818/federal-reserve-research-confirms-trump-tariffs-drove-excess-inflation-in-2025-dollar-for-dollar-hit) |
FOMC Target Range | 3.50%–3.75% (late April 2026) [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a1.htm) |
Market Expectation for Sep 2026 | 74% probability of "No change" (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-568) |

**A potential Trump presidency could introduce inflationary fiscal policies**

A potential Trump presidency could introduce inflationary fiscal policies. A Donald Trump administration is expected to prioritize corporate tax reduction and the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5180057/donald-trump-wins-2024-election)[[^]](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/the-economic-impact-of-the-us-elections-your-questions-answered)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republican-sweep-gives-trump-power-slash-taxes-may-strain-deficits-2024-11-13/). These measures are generally considered inflationary due to their potential to increase demand or widen deficits [[^]](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/the-economic-impact-of-the-us-elections-your-questions-answered)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republican-sweep-gives-trump-power-slash-taxes-may-strain-deficits-2024-11-13/). Tariffs, another key policy component, could further escalate goods prices, delaying disinflation and potentially hindering Federal Reserve rate cuts [[^]](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/the-economic-impact-of-the-us-elections-your-questions-answered). Federal Reserve research, reported in April 2026, indicated that tariffs implemented through November 2025 contributed to a **3.1%** increase in core goods Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by February 2026, accounting for almost all "excess inflation" in this category [[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/04/51749818/federal-reserve-research-confirms-trump-tariffs-drove-excess-inflation-in-2025-dollar-for-dollar-hit). This suggests tariffs could sustain elevated inflation, necessitating a tighter monetary policy environment through September 2026 [[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/04/51749818/federal-reserve-research-confirms-trump-tariffs-drove-excess-inflation-in-2025-dollar-for-dollar-hit).

The Federal Reserve is holding rates steady, balancing inflation and labor **market** conditions. As of late April 2026, the Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) maintained its federal funds rate target range at **3.50%**–**3.75%** [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a1.htm). Policy discussions continue to weigh persistent inflation against a softening labor **market** [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html). The timing of any rate cuts, whether before or after September 2026, will depend on the progression of disinflation [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html). The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections from March 18, 2026, shows a 2026 federal funds rate midpoint of **3.4%**, implying that scenarios leading into September 2026 are likely to involve no change or only minor adjustments unless inflation data dictates otherwise [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm). **Market** expectations from Polymarket corroborate this, showing a **74%** **probability** of "No change" by September 2026, indicating an outlook of continued monetary restraint or very modest easing [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-568).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The market-implied post-meeting fed-funds midpoint after the Sep 16, 2026 FOMC decision is shown around 3.13% [[^]](https://rateprobability.com/fed).** This contrasts with the federal funds effective rate of **3.64%** as of May 7, 2026, which corresponds to the prevailing target range of **3.50%**–**3.75%** [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm)[[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr). The CME FedWatch Tool is explicitly designed to show probabilities of FOMC target rate moves based on 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/cme-fedwatch-tool-user-guide.html).

**The Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar shows the Sep 2026 decision meeting is associated with Sep 15–16, 2026, with the Sep 16 date referenced for the decision materials [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).** A prediction **market** for the “Fed decision in September?” shows “No change” at **74%** and “25 bps decrease” at **19%** regarding the Sep 2026 FOMC statement outcome [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-568).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** September 16, 2026
- **Expiration:** September 23, 2026
- **Closes:** September 16, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The **market**-implied post-meeting fed-funds midpoint after the Sep 16, 2026 FOMC decision is shown around **3.13%** [^] .
- This contrasts with the federal funds effective rate of **3.64%** as of May 7, 2026, which corresponds to the prevailing target range of **3.50%**–**3.75%** [^] [^] .
- The CME FedWatch Tool is explicitly designed to show probabilities of FOMC target rate moves based on 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing [^] .
- The Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar shows the Sep 2026 decision meeting is associated with Sep 15–16, 2026, with the Sep 16 date referenced for the decision materials [^] .

## Related Research Reports

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXFED-26APR-T5.25: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXFED-26APR-T5.00: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXFED-26APR-T4.75: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXFED-26APR-T4.50: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXFED-26APR-T4.25: NO (Apr 29, 2026)

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### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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