# Price of a dozen eggs on May 4, 2026

May 4, 2026

Updated: May 4, 2026

Category: Economics

Tags: Econ Daily

HTML: /markets/economics/econ-daily/price-of-a-dozen-eggs-on-may-4-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the price of a dozen eggs to be above **$2.78** on May 4, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Increased supply post-HPAI recovery drives lower egg prices.** - Wholesale egg costs are currently at extremely low levels.
- Shell egg inventory rose significantly week-over-week in late April.
- Egg prices show a significant downturn since early 2025.
- February 2026 egg prices notably decreased from January 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** predicts **0.1%** **probability** vs 0c **market**, reflecting strong downward egg price trends due to increased supply.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $2.78 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% | Increased supply post-HPAI recovery and low wholesale costs drive egg price trends down. |
| Above $2.79 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% | Increased supply post-HPAI recovery and low wholesale costs drive egg price trends down. |
| Above $2.80 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% | Increased supply post-HPAI recovery and low wholesale costs drive egg price trends down. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above $2.78 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Above $2.79 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Above $2.80 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Above $2.81 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Above $2.82 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Above $2.83 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Above $2.84 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Above $2.85 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Above $2.86 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Above $2.87 per dozen eggs | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: May 4, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index is above $2.78 per dozen eggs on May 4, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to No, with the outcome verified by Truflation. The market opens on May 3, 2026, and will close by May 4, 2026, at 7:59 pm EDT, though it may close earlier if the economic data is released. Payout is projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Recent data indicates retail egg prices in early 2026 have ranged from $2.35-$2.58 per dozen, while wholesale prices are significantly lower at $0.21-$0.22 and projected to continue decreasing [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/APU0000708111). This downward trend, including a 60% drop over the past month and 93% year-over-year, is largely due to flock recovery following avian flu outbreaks [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us). Prediction markets currently suggest expectations for prices to remain below $2.78, with a 62% probability of prices settling between $2.25-$2.50 in April [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrufeggs/truflation-us-cpi-eggs-index/kxtrufeggs-26may04).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $2.78 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.79 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.80 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.81 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.82 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.83 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.84 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.85 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.86 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Above $2.87 per dozen eggs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What is the Retail Egg Markup for Top Grocers in April 2026?

Retail Markup Data | Not explicitly available for top 5 grocers in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.urnerbarry.com/Markets) |
Walmart Large White Eggs | $1.67/dozen in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.mashed.com/2147208/walmart-vs-aldi-cheap-eggs/)[[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/articles/walmart-vs-aldi-grocery-store-141700584.html) |
BLS Average Retail Large Eggs | $2.348/dozen in March 2026 [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111) |

**Specific retail markup data for top grocers is unavailable for April 2026**

Specific retail markup data for top grocers is unavailable for April 2026. The precise cents-per-dozen retail markup over the Urner Barry Midwest Large benchmark for the top five grocery retailers (Walmart, Kroger, Costco, Albertsons, Ahold Delhaize) during the April 2026 BLS data collection period is not explicitly provided in the available research. Similarly, information regarding a 12-month rolling average markup for these retailers is also not contained within the provided facts [[^]](https://www.urnerbarry.com/Markets).

Related egg pricing data offers some **market** context for April 2026. Walmart's Great Value Large White eggs were priced at **$1.67**/dozen in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.mashed.com/2147208/walmart-vs-aldi-cheap-eggs/)[[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/articles/walmart-vs-aldi-grocery-store-141700584.html). The Urner Barry Retail Feature Egg Index reported high values of **$3.5019**/dozen on April 27, 2026, and **$3.5592** on April 20 [[^]](https://prod.urnerbarry.com/history/14156). Additionally, national wholesale Large eggs were 22.35 cents/dozen as of April 17, 2026 [[^]](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/national-shell-egg-**market**-report-prices-steady-to-higher-as-of-april-17-2026/). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) average retail price for large eggs was **$2.348**/dozen for March 2026 [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111), with April data expected to be released on May 12, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm).

## How Many Commercial Layer Hens Were Depopulated Due to HPAI in Early 2026?

Layers Died/Destroyed (March 2026) | 18.3 million (169% increase YoY) [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795866/ckeg0426.txt) |
HPAI Affected Egg Layers (Q1 2026) | 17.6 million [[^]](https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/24485-egg-prices-avoid-past-spikes-with-fewer-hpai-cases) |
Indiana Hens Lost (Affected Counties) | 2.8 million (32% inventory loss since Oct 2025) [[^]](https://hogvet51.substack.com/p/the-hpai-grim-reaper-returns-for) |

**The total number of commercial layer hens depopulated due to confirmed Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks between March 15, 2026, and April 30, 2026, is not specifically detailed in the available research**

The total number of commercial layer hens depopulated due to confirmed Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks between March 15, 2026, and April 30, 2026, is not specifically detailed in the available research. However, broader data indicates substantial losses, with 18.3 million layers dying or being destroyed in March 2026, marking a **169%** year-over-year increase, largely attributed to HPAI [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795866/ckeg0426.txt). Furthermore, 17.6 million egg layers were affected by HPAI during the first quarter of 2026 (January-March) [[^]](https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/24485-egg-prices-avoid-past-spikes-with-fewer-hpai-cases). A recent 30-day total as of early April 2026 showed 5 million birds affected across 62 flocks, with 39 of these being commercial operations [[^]](https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/24485-egg-prices-avoid-past-spikes-with-fewer-hpai-cases). Despite these outbreaks, the overall U.S. layer flock grew to an average of 375.9 million in March 2026, a **5%** increase year-over-year [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795866/ckeg0426.txt). This growth contributed to relatively low retail egg prices of **$2.50** per dozen in February 2026 [[^]](https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/24485-egg-prices-avoid-past-spikes-with-fewer-hpai-cases).

Indiana faced substantial HPAI-related losses, particularly in northern counties. The state was identified as particularly impacted, with major egg production facilities reporting 20 HPAI cases by mid-March 2026. These outbreaks primarily involved layers and ducks in Indiana's northern counties [[^]](https://hogvet51.substack.com/p/the-hpai-grim-reaper-returns-for). Approximately 2.8 million hens were housed in these affected northern counties, representing a **32%** inventory loss for Indiana since October 2025 [[^]](https://hogvet51.substack.com/p/the-hpai-grim-reaper-returns-for).

## How Did Shell Egg Inventory and Broken Eggs Change in April 2026?

Total Shell Egg Inventory Increase (Week-over-week) | Nearly 6% (around April 27, 2026) [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf) |
Large Egg Inventory Increase (Week-over-week) | 8% (around April 27, 2026) [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf) |
Shell Eggs Broken (March 2026) | 201.72M dozen [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795880/eggs0426.txt) |

**Shell egg inventory rose significantly in late April 2026 week-over-week**

Shell egg inventory rose significantly in late April 2026 week-over-week. Around April 27, 2026, the total shell egg inventory showed a week-over-week increase of nearly **6%** [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf). Specifically, the inventory of large eggs increased by **8%** during that same weekly period [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf). However, a direct comparison of these week-over-week inventory trends to the same period in April 2025 is not possible due to the absence of comparable data for the prior year [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf).

Week-over-week broken egg data for April 2026 is unavailable. While specific week-over-week percentage changes for shell eggs broken under federal inspection for April 2026 are not provided, monthly and cumulative figures offer insight [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795880/eggs0426.txt). In March 2026, 201.72 million dozen shell eggs were broken, which marked a **2%** decrease from February 2026 but represented a **3%** increase compared to March 2025 [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795880/eggs0426.txt). Cumulatively, from January through March 2026, 610.3 million dozen shell eggs were broken, indicating a **7%** increase over the same period in 2025 [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795880/eggs0426.txt). For context, April 2025 recorded 193.21 million dozen broken eggs, showing a **1%** change from the previous month [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/hx11xf25t/k930dv69p/nz807w948/eggs0525.pdf). Due to missing week-over-week data for both April 2026 and April 2025, a direct comparison of weekly trends for broken eggs is not feasible [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795880/eggs0426.txt).

## How do California egg prices compare to national averages?

National Retail Egg Price (Early Apr 2026) | ~$2.50 per dozen [[^]](https://priceofmeat.com/56511/egg-prices-have-plummeted-what-you-need-to-know-in-april-2026/) |
National Wholesale Large Caged Loose (Late Apr 2026) | 22 cents per dozen [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf) |
California Cartoned Egg Benchmark (Late Apr 2026) | 87 cents per dozen [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf) |

**Precise retail egg price data between California and the Midwest is unavailable**

Precise retail egg price data between California and the Midwest is unavailable. While specific retail scanner data for a dozen large Grade A eggs differentiating California (Prop 12 compliant) from the Midwest (e.g., Illinois, Ohio) is not available as of late April 2026, reports indicate the price differential between California and national prices is narrowing due to a decline in national prices [[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/post/the-egg-index-why-prices-spiked-where-they-are-now-and-whats-next/). California continues to experience the highest egg prices, largely attributed to its Prop 12 cage-free mandate, which limits imports and results in a tighter supply within the state [[^]](https://www.ibjonline.com/2026/04/02/eggs-for-easter-more-affordable-than-last-year/).

National retail and wholesale egg prices showed significant variation in late April. By early April 2026, national retail egg prices had fallen to approximately **$2.50** per dozen, a decrease from 2025 peaks [[^]](https://priceofmeat.com/56511/egg-prices-have-plummeted-what-you-need-to-know-in-april-2026/). USDA data from late April 2026 reported national wholesale large caged loose eggs at 22 cents per dozen, while California's cartoned benchmark was 87 cents per dozen and CA-compliant loose eggs were 31 cents per dozen [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf). During the same period, national retail ad averages for conventional caged large eggs were recorded at **$1.65** per dozen, with cage-free eggs averaging **$2.48** per dozen [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf).

First quarter 2026 saw fluctuating national egg prices and high California costs. Throughout the first quarter of 2026, average US egg prices were **$2.58** per dozen in January and **$3.59** per dozen in February [[^]](https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/average-cost-of-a-dozen-eggs/)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/post/the-egg-index-why-prices-spiked-where-they-are-now-and-whats-next/). California consistently ranked among the top five priciest states for eggs during this period [[^]](https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/average-cost-of-a-dozen-eggs/)[[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/post/the-egg-index-why-prices-spiked-where-they-are-now-and-whats-next/).

## What is the US Retail Price for Grade A Large Eggs?

National Wholesale Loose White Large Eggs | approximately 22 cents/dozen (FOB dock) [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2843.pdf)[[^]](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-shell-egg-index-report-prices-steady-to-lower-on-may-1-2026/) |
National Average Grocery Store Ad Price (Conventional Caged Large White Eggs) | $1.65/dozen [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf) |
USDA Forecast Egg Price by Late 2026 | $2.16/dozen [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/usda-sees-egg-prices-sliding-2-16-2026-supply-surplus-overwhelms-demand-2605/) |

**Specific Grade A Large egg price and historical spread are unavailable**

Specific Grade A Large egg price and historical spread are unavailable. The 'U.S. HIGHLIGHTS: RETAIL' price for Grade A Large eggs for the week ending April 29, 2026, released on May 2, is not explicitly available in the provided research [[^]](http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/eggs0426.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2843.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2757.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf)[[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pywretailegg.pdf). Furthermore, the historical spread between this specific weekly report and the final BLS monthly average price over the last 24 months cannot be determined from the given sources.

Related USDA reports offer approximate wholesale and retail egg prices. Other data from early May 2026 USDA reports indicate that national wholesale loose white Large eggs were approximately 22 cents/dozen (FOB dock) [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2843.pdf)[[^]](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-shell-egg-index-report-prices-steady-to-lower-on-may-1-2026/). A recent weekly report also showed that the national average grocery store ad price for conventional caged Large white eggs was **$1.65**/dozen [[^]](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf).

USDA forecasts egg prices will reach **$2.16** later in 2026. The USDA anticipates that egg prices are expected to reach **$2.16**/dozen by later in 2026. This projection is due to an anticipated supply surplus [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/usda-sees-egg-prices-sliding-2-16-2026-supply-surplus-overwhelms-demand-2605/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Egg prices are currently experiencing a significant downturn, with the BLS reporting an average of $2.50 per dozen in February 2026, a notable decrease from $2.577 in January 2026 and a peak of $6.227 in March 2025 [[^]](https://data.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/APU0000708111)[[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111/n/n4.14).** The annual average for January 2026 stood at **$2.58** per dozen, marking a **45%** year-over-year decline from 2025's **$4.71** [[^]](https://keepingupwithinflation.com/tracker/eggs/). This bearish trend is largely attributed to an oversupply in the **market**, with the layer flock reaching 308 million hens in early 2026 and production increasing **2%** year-over-year in January [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us/news/537135)[[^]](https://priceofmeat.com/56511/egg-prices-have-plummeted-what-you-need-to-know-in-april-2026/). The USDA forecasts a further slide to **$2.16** per dozen by late 2026, driven by a supply surplus overwhelming demand, compounded by a post-holiday demand lull and a shift towards processed eggs [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/usda-sees-egg-prices-sliding-2-16-2026-supply-surplus-overwhelms-demand-2605/)[[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us/news/537135). Wholesale egg prices reflect this, with May 1 prices at **$0.22** per dozen, a **93%** year-over-year decrease [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us). **Market** probabilities, such as those from Polymarket in April, indicate a **61%** chance of prices falling within the **$2.25**-**$2.50** range [[^]](https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/odds-on-egg-prices-most-likely-to-fall-in-2-25-2-50-range-in-april-thefly-news).

**The primary bullish risk that could reverse the current downward trajectory of egg prices is the emergence of new Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks [[^]](https://priceofmeat.com/56511/egg-prices-have-plummeted-what-you-need-to-know-in-april-2026/).** Recent localized outbreaks, for instance, in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, highlight the ongoing threat of the virus to the layer flock [[^]](https://priceofmeat.com/56511/egg-prices-have-plummeted-what-you-need-to-know-in-april-2026/). A widespread resurgence of HPAI could significantly reduce egg supply, leading to price volatility and a potential increase in costs, despite the current oversupply conditions [[^]](https://priceofmeat.com/56511/egg-prices-have-plummeted-what-you-need-to-know-in-april-2026/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 12, 2026
- **Closes:** May 04, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Egg prices are currently experiencing a significant downturn, with the BLS reporting an average of **$2.50** per dozen in February 2026, a notable decrease from **$2.577** in January 2026 and a peak of **$6.227** in March 2025 [^] [^] .
- The annual average for January 2026 stood at **$2.58** per dozen, marking a **45%** year-over-year decline from 2025's **$4.71** [^] .
- This bearish trend is largely attributed to an oversupply in the **market**, with the layer flock reaching 308 million hens in early 2026 and production increasing **2%** year-over-year in January [^] [^] .
- The USDA forecasts a further slide to **$2.16** per dozen by late 2026, driven by a supply surplus overwhelming demand, compounded by a post-holiday demand lull and a shift towards processed eggs [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.87: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.86: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.85: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.84: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXTRUFEGGS-26MAY01-T2.83: YES (May 01, 2026)

## Disclaimer

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Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

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**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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