# How low will Solana get in April?

April

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: SOL

HTML: /markets/crypto/sol/how-low-will-solana-get-in-april/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Solana to drop below **$80.00** in April, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Confirmed drop below $80 signals ongoing strong downside pressure.** - Significant leveraged long liquidation clusters exist at **$70,** **$60,** and **$50**.
- Solana's options **market** prices a higher premium for downside protection.
- Recent whale unstaking of **$26.1** million adds to potential selling pressure.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **7%** **probability** (vs 3c **market**) implies a 33.3x payout due to major SOL liquidation clusters below **$70**.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below $75.00 | 3.0% | 7.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Below $70.00 | 5.0% | 6.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Below $65.00 | 2.0% | 5.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Below $75.00 | 3.0% | 7.0% |
| Below $70.00 | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| Below $65.00 | 2.0% | 5.5% |
| Below $60.00 | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Below $45.00 | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Below $50.00 | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| Below $55.00 | 2.0% | 3.0% |

- Expiration: May 1, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market exhibits a strong and consistent downward trend, indicating a significant decrease in the perceived probability that Solana will reach the contract's specified low price in April. The price began at a high of 38.0% and has since fallen to a current low of 3.0%. While the overall trend is down, the market experienced a period of intense volatility between April 17th and April 22nd. During this time, the price saw a 22.0 percentage point drop, a 13.0 point spike, and two further 14.0 point drops, reflecting a brief period of major uncertainty among traders before the downward trend resumed.

No specific news or external developments were provided to explain the sharp price movements in mid-April. The trading volume provides some insight into market conviction. With a total of 5,921 contracts traded, the market has seen healthy activity. Volume appears to have been higher during the earlier, more uncertain phases of the contract and has tapered off as the price settled near its lows. This pattern suggests that conviction in the "NO" outcome has solidified, and fewer participants are willing to bet against the prevailing trend as the contract nears its resolution.

The 38.0% mark acted as an early peak probability that was never retested. The 8.0% to 9.0% range emerged as a key price zone during the mid-month volatility, acting as both a temporary floor and ceiling. The current 3.0% price level is now acting as a strong support for the "NO" position. The chart's price action clearly illustrates a shift in market sentiment from moderately bearish on Solana's price performance at the start of the month to overwhelmingly bullish, with traders now assigning a very low probability to a significant price drop.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Below $75.00

#### 📉 April 22, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 22.0% to 8.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 20, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 34.0% to 20.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 18, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 9.0% to 22.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 17, 2026: 22.0pp drop

Price decreased from 31.0% to 9.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Below $70.00

#### 📉 April 16, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 13.0% to 3.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to Yes if the minute-by-minute trimmed mean price of Solana (SOL), derived from CF Benchmarks data (excluding the top and bottom 20% of values), ever falls below $75.00 between April 1, 2026, 12:06 PM EDT, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this price condition is not met by the deadline, or if CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration. The market closes early if the Yes condition is met, otherwise by the April 30th deadline.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below $45.00 | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1,734.78 | $1,403.38 |
| Below $50.00 | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1,152.03 | $872.95 |
| Below $55.00 | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1,015.56 | $964.56 |
| Below $60.00 | 0% | 1% | 6% | $2,434.64 | $1,512.54 |
| Below $65.00 | 0% | 4% | 2% | $6,295.61 | $4,843.78 |
| Below $70.00 | 0% | 2% | 5% | $10,038.08 | $4,190.07 |
| Below $75.00 | 2% | 3% | 3% | $12,722.93 | $6,563.85 |

## What Are Solana's Key Leveraged Long Liquidation Prices?

Highest Liquidation Concentration 1 | ~$70.00 (Coinglass) [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL) |
Highest Liquidation Concentration 2 | ~$60.00 (Coinglass) [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL) |
Highest Liquidation Concentration 3 | ~$50.00 (Coinglass) [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL) |

**Key SOL liquidation levels identified are $70, $60, and $50**

Key SOL liquidation levels identified are **$70,** **$60,** and **$50**. Based on web research, primarily utilizing data from Coinglass, the highest concentrations of leveraged long liquidations for SOL perpetual swaps on Binance and Bybit within the **$40** to **$90** price range are identified around the **$70.00**, **$60.00**, and **$50.00** price levels [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL). These particular thresholds represent significant clusters of potential long liquidation orders, evident from historical analysis and current heatmap patterns [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL).

Each level represents a critical liquidation trigger point. Data from Coinglass indicates that a drop to approximately **$70.00** would trigger a substantial wave of long liquidations [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL). Further downside movement to the **$60.00** psychological support level also reveals a heavy concentration of liquidation orders for long positions [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL). Should the price continue its decline, the **$50.00** mark presents another critical juncture, indicating a high volume of leveraged long liquidations across major exchanges like Binance and Bybit [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL). These price points are frequently highlighted on liquidation heatmaps as areas where a large number of long positions would be forcibly closed, potentially leading to cascading selling pressure [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew?coin=SOL).

## What Solana Whale Movements Impacted Major Exchanges Recently?

SOL Deposit to Binance | $26.1 million (115,000 SOL) [[^]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/50849-solana-whale-deposits-binance-sell) |
SOL Withdrawal from Coinbase | 268,395 SOL ($60.7 million) [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/whale-stakes-268-395-sol-60-7m-after-coinbase-withdrawal-on-chain-signal-reducing-near-term-sol-liquidity) |
General Exchange Inflow (Last 7 Days) | 1.32 million SOL [[^]](https://app.smartappnet.net/blog/101910/solana-onchain-data-divergence-1-32m-sol-exchange-inflows-defi-liquidity-crisis-analysis) |

**Over the past week, major exchanges experienced significant Solana whale movements**

Over the past week, major exchanges experienced significant Solana whale movements. One notable instance involved a whale unstaking **$26.1** million worth of SOL and subsequently depositing approximately 115,000 SOL to Binance around April 26-28, 2024, a move that raised concerns about potential selling pressure [[^]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/50849-solana-whale-deposits-binance-sell). Conversely, another prominent whale withdrew 268,395 SOL, valued at approximately **$60.7** million, from Coinbase. This withdrawal was followed by the staking of these tokens, a behavior generally seen as reducing near-term SOL liquidity in the **market** [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/whale-stakes-268-395-sol-60-7m-after-coinbase-withdrawal-on-chain-signal-reducing-near-term-sol-liquidity).

Specific whale activities resulted in a net outflow from Coinbase and Binance. While specific 'smart money' flows for Kraken were not detailed within the last seven days, broader on-chain analysis indicated a general inflow of 1.32 million SOL to exchanges overall during this period [[^]](https://app.smartappnet.net/blog/101910/solana-onchain-data-divergence-1-32m-sol-exchange-inflows-defi-liquidity-crisis-analysis). However, when combining the identified specific whale movements – the approximately 115,000 SOL deposit to Binance and the 268,395 SOL outflow from Coinbase for staking – the net effect across these two major exchanges was a net outflow of roughly 153,000 SOL [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/whale-stakes-268-395-sol-60-7m-after-coinbase-withdrawal-on-chain-signal-reducing-near-term-sol-liquidity).

## What Does Solana's Options Market 25-Delta Skew Reveal?

Solana 1-month 25-delta skew | Preference for downside protection (puts more expensive than calls) [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/derivatives.Options25DeltaSkew1Month?a=SOL) |
Deribit Solana 25-delta risk reversal changes | Not explicitly provided in Deribit reports [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/crypto-derivatives-analytics-report-week-18-2026/) |
Deribit Solana end-of-April implied volatility | Not detailed in Deribit reports [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/crypto-derivatives-analytics-report-week-18-2026/) |

**Solana's market prices a higher premium for downside protection**

Solana's **market** prices a higher premium for downside protection. Over the past week, the **market** has continued to price in a higher premium for Solana's downside protection, as indicated by available data for its 1-month 25-delta skew across various exchanges. This bias is reflected in the 25-delta risk reversal, which measures the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money puts and calls [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/derivatives.Options25DeltaSkew1Month?a=SOL). A more negative skew suggests that investors are willing to pay more for puts relative to calls, signaling an anticipation of potential downside movements or an increased demand for hedging against price drops [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/derivatives.Options25DeltaSkew1Month?a=SOL).

Specific Deribit week-over-week changes were not explicitly detailed. While aggregated data from Glassnode offers a valuable overview of Solana's 1-month 25-delta skew across multiple exchanges [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/derivatives.Options25DeltaSkew1Month?a=SOL), specific week-over-week changes for Solana options' implied volatility and 25-delta risk reversal on the Deribit exchange for the end-of-April expiry were not explicitly detailed. The Crypto Derivatives Analytics Reports from Deribit Insights, which were reviewed for this analysis, typically provide broader **market** commentary on implied volatility trends for major cryptocurrencies but did not contain granular, week-specific data for Solana's option metrics, particularly the 25-delta risk reversal [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/crypto-derivatives-analytics-report-week-18-2026/).

## Are Solana's MoM Active Addresses & Fees Data Available?

MoM Active Addresses (Artemis/The TIE) | Not directly available from provided research sources [[^]](https://app.artemis.xyz/developer-activity?ecosystemValue=Solana) |
Solana Q1 Revenue Change | Plunged 68% year-on-year (HTX Insights) [[^]](https://www.htx.com/news/Project%20Updates-TujvNtgL/) |
Solana Daily Active Addresses vs. Ethereum | Surpassed Ethereum (Blocklr) [[^]](https://blocklr.com/news/solana-surpasses-ethereum-daily-active-addresses-march-2026/) |

**Direct month-over-month Solana data was unavailable from specified sources**

Direct month-over-month Solana data was unavailable from specified sources. The provided web research did not contain direct month-over-month percentage changes for daily active addresses or total transaction fees on the Solana network, specifically from Artemis.xyz or The TIE. The available Artemis links offered dashboard access, API documentation, and a January 2024 blog post, none of which included the requested pre-calculated month-over-month data [[^]](https://app.artemis.xyz/developer-activity?ecosystemValue=Solana). Furthermore, no direct links to The TIE were found in the provided materials.

Related reports offer insights on Solana's performance and active addresses. While the precise month-over-month data from the specified sources was unavailable, related findings from other reports were identified. An HTX Insights report on Solana's Q1 performance indicated that revenue experienced a significant **68%** year-on-year plunge [[^]](https://www.htx.com/news/Project%20Updates-TujvNtgL/). Additionally, an article from Blocklr, seemingly from March 2024 despite being dated March 2026 due to a likely typo, noted that Solana had surpassed Ethereum in daily active addresses [[^]](https://blocklr.com/news/solana-surpasses-ethereum-daily-active-addresses-march-2026/). However, these findings do not provide the specific month-over-month percentage changes or originate from Artemis or The TIE as initially requested.

## What are Solana's (SOL) VPVR Technical Support Levels?

Immediate Support Level | $85 [[^]](https://www.tradingnews.com/news/solan-price-forecast-sol-usd-50-day-ema-resistance) |
Immediate Resistance Level | $90 [[^]](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/20092) |
Significance of $85 Level | Critical breakout zone and key factor for SOL's next move [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/solana-85-stalemate-flow-analysis-critical-breakout-zone-2604/) |

**Specific VPVR support levels between current price and $45 are not identified**

Specific VPVR support levels between current price and **$45** are not identified. The available research does not explicitly detail specific technical support levels for Solana (SOL) derived from the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) indicator on the daily chart since the start of the year, particularly within the requested price range between current trading levels and **$45**. The provided sources predominantly offer historical price data and general **market** analyses of Solana's recent price movements, rather than a focused VPVR analysis for these lower support levels.

Current **market** analysis identifies **$85** as critical immediate support. Solana has recently been trading near the **$85**-**$86** mark according to current **market** analyses. The **$85** price point is frequently identified as a critical immediate support level [[^]](https://www.tradingnews.com/news/solan-price-forecast-sol-usd-50-day-ema-resistance). This level is described as a key breakout zone and a significant factor in determining the next major price movement for SOL [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/solana-85-stalemate-flow-analysis-critical-breakout-zone-2604/). While these sources also identify immediate resistance points, such as **$90** [[^]](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/20092), they do not provide further specific technical support levels derived from VPVR for the lower range down to **$45**.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 08, 2026
- **Closes:** May 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Related Research Reports

- [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/)
- [How high will BNB get in April?](/markets/crypto/bnb/how-high-will-bnb-get-in-april/)
- [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/)
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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 9 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26APR30-8000: YES (Apr 02, 2026)
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26MAR31-8000: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26MAR31-7500: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26MAR31-7000: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26MAR31-6500: NO (Apr 01, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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