# How low will Zcash get in April?

April

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Crypto

HTML: /markets/crypto/how-low-will-zcash-get-in-april/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** favor Below **$240.00** at approximately **100%** **probability**.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Significant Zcash net inflows to exchanges occurred throughout April.** - The Zcash network maintained record hashrates throughout April.
- Zcash perpetual futures **market** shows no immediate liquidation cascade risk.
- Privacy cryptocurrencies face no new regulatory actions until April 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Model's 8.8% probability vs.** **5.0%** **market** suggests undervaluation due to ZEC inflows, offering a 20.0x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below $230.00 | 5.0% | 8.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Below $170.00 | 8.0% | 7.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Below $220.00 | 10.0% | 8.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Below $230.00 | 5.0% | 8.8% |
| Below $170.00 | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Below $220.00 | 10.0% | 8.8% |
| Below $210.00 | 5.0% | 7.0% |
| Below $200.00 | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Below $190.00 | 0.0% | 7.0% |
| Below $180.00 | 0.0% | 7.0% |

- Expiration: May 1, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market, which speculates on how low Zcash will fall in April, has exhibited extreme volatility rather than a clear directional trend. The contract began with a low 7.0% probability, suggesting traders initially felt a new low was unlikely. However, sentiment shifted dramatically, with the price soaring to a peak of 85.0% before experiencing a massive collapse. The most significant event was an 80.0 percentage point drop on April 25, when the price plunged from 85.0% to 5.0%. Another notable, though smaller, drop of 9.0 points occurred on April 21. No specific news or market context was provided to explain these sharp reversals, indicating the moves were likely driven by internal market dynamics or a sudden, unexplained shift in trader perception.

The current price of 5.0% appears to be a key support level, having been tested multiple times towards the end of the month after the major price collapse. The all-time low of 3.0% represents the ultimate floor for the contract thus far, while the peak of 85.0% acts as a major resistance level that was decisively rejected. The total volume of 3,147 contracts suggests moderate engagement over the market's lifetime. However, the price crash from the peak indicates a powerful shift in conviction, with sellers overwhelming buyers. Overall, market sentiment has swung from bearish on Zcash's price (a high contract price) to strongly bullish (a low contract price), with traders now assigning a very low probability to the event of Zcash hitting a significant new low for the month.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Below $230.00

#### 📉 April 25, 2026: 80.0pp drop

Price decreased from 85.0% to 5.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Below $220.00

#### 📈 April 21, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 3.0% to 13.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 17, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 11.0% to 3.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Below $210.00

#### 📈 April 15, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 9.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the minute-by-minute trimmed mean of the CF ZECUSD\_RTI price for Zcash (ZEC) is ever below $230.00 between April 1, 2026, 12:06 PM EDT and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this price criterion is never met by the deadline, or if CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration. Settlement values are calculated by removing the top and bottom 20% of data points from the minute-by-minute CF ZECUSD\_RTI prices to produce a trimmed mean, mitigating extreme price fluctuations.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below $170.00 | 0% | 5% | 8% | $2,018.58 | $1,656.58 |
| Below $180.00 | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Below $190.00 | 0% | 6% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Below $200.00 | 0% | 5% | 8% | $11.74 | $11.74 |
| Below $210.00 | 0% | 5% | 5% | $44.41 | $42.41 |
| Below $220.00 | 0% | 6% | 10% | $160.11 | $69.35 |
| Below $230.00 | 5% | 7% | 5% | $4,527.49 | $2,081.95 |

## What Were Zcash's (ZEC) Exchange Movements in April?

Net Inflow to Exchanges | 36,091 ZEC (derived from cited activities) [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/zcash-zec-outflows-33-955-zec-17-62m-withdrawn-from-binance-and-kraken-in-12-hours-on-chain-whale-activity) |
Total Identified Inflows | 74,002 ZEC [[^]](https://www.mexc.co/en-PH/news/398445) |
Total Identified Outflows | 37,911 ZEC [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/zcash-zec-outflows-33-955-zec-17-62m-withdrawn-from-binance-and-kraken-in-12-hours-on-chain-whale-activity) |

**Zcash experienced significant net inflows to major exchanges from large holders in April**

Zcash experienced significant net inflows to major exchanges from large holders in April. During this month, ZEC saw substantial transfers onto major cryptocurrency exchanges. A significant whale deposit of 74,002 ZEC, valued at **$35.75** million, was made directly to Binance, representing a major inflow [[^]](https://www.mexc.co/en-PH/news/398445). This event occurred amidst broader observations of new capital entering Zcash during April [[^]](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/19842) and record daily spot inflows on April 11, 2026 [[^]](https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2026/04/11/zcash-crypto-is-one-of-top-weekly-gainers-saw-highest-daily-spot-inflows-in-2026/).

Significant outflows partially offset large ZEC exchange inflows during April. Over a 12-hour period, 33,955 ZEC, worth **$17.62** million, was withdrawn from Binance and Kraken [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/zcash-zec-outflows-33-955-zec-17-62m-withdrawn-from-binance-and-kraken-in-12-hours-on-chain-whale-activity). Additionally, a new wallet completed a single outflow of 3,956 ZEC, valued at **$1.55** million, from Binance [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/large-zec-withdrawal-new-wallet-pulls-3-956-zec-1-55m-from-binance-in-single-outflow-6-hours-ago). Aggregating these movements, total identified inflows to major exchanges from large holders amounted to 74,002 ZEC. Conversely, total identified outflows during this period reached 37,911 ZEC [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/zcash-zec-outflows-33-955-zec-17-62m-withdrawn-from-binance-and-kraken-in-12-hours-on-chain-whale-activity). This resulted in a net inflow of 36,091 ZEC to major exchanges due to documented large wallet activities. Such a sustained net inflow from large holders could suggest potential sell-side pressure.

## What Regulatory Deadlines Impact Privacy Cryptocurrencies Before April 2026?

Privacy Crypto Regulations | None identified before end of April 2026 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/public-comments/s7-2026-09?field_comment_date_value=&field_comment_letter_type_value=All&field_commenter_value=&order=field_comment_date&sort=asc) |
SEC CAT Public Comment | Solicited in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-37-sec-seeks-public-comment-consolidated-audit-trail-other-audit-trails-data-sources) |
FinCEN/OFAC Stablecoin Rules | Proposed April 2026; comment period extends beyond April [[^]](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/04/fincen-and-ofac-propose-aml-sanctions-rules-for-stablecoin-issuers) |

**No specific actions targeting privacy-enhancing cryptocurrencies were identified before April 2026**

No specific actions targeting privacy-enhancing cryptocurrencies were identified before April 2026. As of the end of April 2026, no scheduled hearings, comment periods ending, or new draft guidances from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), or Financial Action Task Force (FATF) were specifically focused on privacy-enhancing cryptocurrencies. While these regulatory bodies are active in the broader crypto asset **market**, their initiatives do not specifically target the unique characteristics of privacy-enhancing cryptocurrencies within the specified timeframe. For instance, the SEC announced in April 2026 that it was seeking public comment on the Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) and other audit trails and data sources [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-37-sec-seeks-public-comment-consolidated-audit-trail-other-audit-trails-data-sources). This initiative broadly relates to **market** surveillance and transparency across securities markets but does not specifically address privacy-enhancing cryptocurrencies. Earlier, in March 2026, the SEC also clarified the application of federal securities laws to certain types of crypto assets through an interpretive release [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-30-sec-clarifies-application-federal-securities-laws-crypto-assets).

FinCEN and OFAC proposed rules for stablecoins, not privacy-enhancing cryptocurrencies. Separately, FinCEN and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) proposed new Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and sanctions rules in April 2026. These rules specifically target stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act [[^]](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/04/fincen-and-ofac-propose-aml-sanctions-rules-for-stablecoin-issuers). The notice of proposed rulemaking includes a 30-day comment period that commenced with its publication in the Federal Register, indicating that this comment period would extend beyond the end of April 2026 [[^]](https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/treasury-proposes-rule-implement-genius-acts-requirements-counter-illicit). These proposed rules address stablecoins and illicit finance more broadly, rather than specifically focusing on privacy-enhancing cryptocurrencies [[^]](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/04/fincen-and-ofac-propose-aml-sanctions-rules-for-stablecoin-issuers).

## Is Zcash (ZEC) Perpetual Futures Market Vulnerable to a Liquidation Cascade?

Open Interest | $100.2 million [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/open-interest/ZEC) |
Funding Rate | Generally positive, up to 0.01% per 8-hour interval [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/funding/ZEC), [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate/ZEC) |
Long/Short Ratio | Around 0.98 to 1.0 [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio/ZEC) |

**The Zcash (ZEC) perpetual futures market shows moderate activity and balanced sentiment**

The Zcash (ZEC) perpetual futures **market** shows moderate activity and balanced sentiment. Current open interest for ZEC perpetual futures stands at approximately **$100.2** million [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/open-interest/ZEC). Analysis of funding rates from platforms such as CoinGlass indicates that ZEC funding rates across major exchanges are generally positive, typically ranging from **0.0001%** to **0.01%** per 8-hour interval [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/funding/ZEC), [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate/ZEC). These positive rates suggest that long position holders are generally paying short position holders to maintain their trades. However, these rates are not consistently high, which indicates the **market** is not experiencing an extremely overheated or aggressively crowded long scenario over an extended period [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/funding/ZEC), [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate/ZEC).

**Market** sentiment does not suggest a crowded long trade vulnerable to liquidation cascades. The Long/Short ratio for ZEC futures generally ranges between 0.98 and 1.0 [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio/ZEC). This ratio points to a relatively balanced distribution between long and short positions, sometimes even showing slightly more short interest rather than an overwhelming consensus towards a 'crowded long trade' [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio/ZEC). Therefore, based on the moderately positive funding rates and the balanced Long/Short ratio, the combined data does not strongly indicate a **market** excessively stretched with long positions or highly vulnerable to a significant liquidation cascade specifically due to a 'crowded long trade' under current **market** conditions [[^]](https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio/ZEC).

## Is Zcash Hashrate Declining and Miner Profitability Strong?

Network Hashrate Status | Record Hash Rates [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/zec-patches-critical-vulnerabilities-price-decline-record-hash-rates-2604/) |
Miner Profitability | Leading ROI rankings [[^]](https://bt-miners.com/april-2026-crypto-mining-market-update-btc-network-hits-995-eh-s-kas-miners-struggle-zec-and-xmr-lead-roi-rankings/) |
Foundry Hashrate Share | 29% [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/foundry-captures-29-zcash-hashrate-140239028.html) |

**Zcash network hashrate did not experience a sustained decline in April**

Zcash network hashrate did not experience a sustained decline in April. Reports from April indicate "Record Hash Rates" for the Zcash network, directly contradicting any sustained decline exceeding **15%** [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/zec-patches-critical-vulnerabilities-price-decline-record-hash-rates-2604/). This robust activity suggests a healthy and active mining network, even though ZEC experienced some reported price declines [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/zec-patches-critical-vulnerabilities-price-decline-record-hash-rates-2604/). Further demonstrating this engagement, a major mining pool, Foundry, secured a significant **29%** of the Zcash hashrate within a month of its launch [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/foundry-captures-29-zcash-hashrate-140239028.html).

Zcash miner profitability was strong in April, far from capitulation. Zcash (ZEC) notably led Return on Investment (ROI) rankings in April, alongside Monero (XMR) [[^]](https://bt-miners.com/april-2026-crypto-mining-**market**-update-btc-network-hits-995-eh-s-kas-miners-struggle-zec-and-xmr-lead-roi-rankings/). This strong profitability position indicates that current miner conditions are not characteristic of historical capitulation zones, which are typically defined by extreme unprofitability that causes miners to abandon the network. Instead, Zcash mining appeared to be an attractive pursuit, drawing investment and achieving leading ROI rankings among various cryptocurrencies during that period [[^]](https://bt-miners.com/april-2026-crypto-mining-**market**-update-btc-network-hits-995-eh-s-kas-miners-struggle-zec-and-xmr-lead-roi-rankings/).

## Where Are Densest ZEC Long Liquidation Pools Located?

Liquidation Heatmap Tools | Available on platforms like Hyblock Capital, CoinGlass, Gate, CoinAnk [[^]](https://academy.hyblockcapital.com/tools/liquidation-levels-1) |
Specific ZEC Liquidation Data (e.g., $200, $190) | Not explicitly available in provided research [[^]](https://academy.hyblockcapital.com/tools/liquidation-levels-1) |
Requirement for Exact Price Levels | Direct real-time analysis of interactive heatmaps is necessary [[^]](https://academy.hyblockcapital.com/tools/liquidation-levels-1) |

**Platforms such as Hyblock Capital, CoinGlass, Gate, and CoinAnk offer tools for visualizing Zcash liquidation levels and heatmaps [[^]](https://academy.hyblockcapital.com/tools/liquidation-levels-1)**

Platforms such as Hyblock Capital, CoinGlass, Gate, and CoinAnk offer tools for visualizing Zcash liquidation levels and heatmaps [[^]](https://academy.hyblockcapital.com/tools/liquidation-levels-1). These analytical tools identify areas where stop-loss and liquidation orders are heavily concentrated, signifying potential liquidity pools where large long or short positions would be forcibly closed if particular price thresholds are reached [[^]](https://academy.hyblockcapital.com/tools/liquidation-levels-1). Such significant clusters of orders are frequently seen as price magnets, potentially attracting **market** movement due to cascading liquidations.

Specific ZEC long liquidation data requires real-time analysis. The provided research, however, does not explicitly detail specific data points or visual interpretations that pinpoint the densest liquidity pools for ZEC long liquidations just above major price thresholds like **$200** or **$190**. The available information primarily confirms the existence and function of these analytical tools rather than offering a summary of their real-time findings. Consequently, to ascertain the exact price levels and magnitudes of these liquidation clusters, direct real-time analysis of the interactive heatmaps and liquidation data provided by these platforms would be necessary [[^]](https://academy.hyblockcapital.com/tools/liquidation-levels-1).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 08, 2026
- **Closes:** May 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 9 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 4 resolved YES, 5 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXZECMINMON-ZEC-26APR30-24000: YES (Apr 02, 2026)
- KXZECMINMON-ZEC-26MAR31-22000: YES (Mar 04, 2026)
- KXZECMINMON-ZEC-26MAR31-21000: YES (Mar 06, 2026)
- KXZECMINMON-ZEC-26MAR31-20000: YES (Mar 08, 2026)
- KXZECMINMON-ZEC-26MAR31-19000: NO (Apr 01, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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