# Ethereum price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

On Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 8, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: Hourly
ETH

HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/ethereum-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the Ethereum price to be between **$2,130** and **$2,169.99** on Apr 10, 2026, at 5pm EDT, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Q1 2026 saw -$3.2 billion in US spot ETH ETF outflows.** - Sustained ETH ETF outflows indicate a lack of institutional demand.
- 40-**50%** of ETH supply staked by March 2026 reduces circulating supply.
- High ETH staking percentage creates significant supply scarcity, supporting prices.
- Total stablecoin **market** reached **$315** billion in Q1 2026, boosting liquidity.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market**'s 2c (**2%**) price is higher than the **model**'s **1.7%** estimate, suggesting overvaluation due to significant ETF outflows.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $2,050 to 2,089.99 | 6.0% | 5.1% | Consistent demand and moderate market stability support this price range. |
| $1,089.99 or below | 2.0% | 1.7% | A significant market downturn or regulatory action could drive prices to this low range. |
| $2,130 to 2,169.99 | 11.0% | 9.1% | Continued DeFi adoption and healthy network growth could push prices into this bracket. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $2,050 to 2,089.99 | 6.0% | 5.1% |
| $1,089.99 or below | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| $2,130 to 2,169.99 | 11.0% | 9.1% |
| $2,090 to 2,129.99 | 8.0% | 6.7% |
| $2,010 to 2,049.99 | 6.0% | 5.1% |
| $1,970 to 2,009.99 | 10.0% | 8.2% |
| $2,250 to 2,289.99 | 9.0% | 7.5% |
| $2,290 to 2,329.99 | 9.0% | 7.5% |
| $1,930 to 1,969.99 | 7.0% | 5.9% |
| $2,170 to 2,209.99 | 9.0% | 7.5% |
| $1,890 to 1,929.99 | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| $2,210 to 2,249.99 | 11.0% | 9.1% |
| $2,330 to 2,369.99 | 6.0% | 5.1% |
| $2,890 to 2,929.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,690 to 2,729.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,810 to 2,849.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,650 to 2,689.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,970 to 3,009.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,610 to 2,649.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,850 to 2,889.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,370 to 2,409.99 | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| $2,570 to 2,609.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,930 to 2,969.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,530 to 2,569.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,410 to 2,449.99 | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| $1,810 to 1,849.99 | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| $1,850 to 1,889.99 | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| $1,090 to 1,129.99 | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| $2,450 to 2,489.99 | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| $2,770 to 2,809.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $2,490 to 2,529.99 | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| $2,730 to 2,769.99 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| $1,130 to 1,169.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,170 to 1,209.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,210 to 1,249.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,250 to 1,289.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,290 to 1,329.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,330 to 1,369.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,370 to 1,409.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,410 to 1,449.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,450 to 1,489.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,490 to 1,529.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,530 to 1,569.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,570 to 1,609.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,610 to 1,649.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,650 to 1,689.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,690 to 1,729.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,730 to 1,769.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $1,770 to 1,809.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| $3,010 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: April 10, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has displayed minimal price activity, characterized by a static, sideways trend. The market opened at a 0.0% probability and experienced a single, definitive movement to 1.0% between April 3 and April 6, 2026. Since that shift, the price has not deviated, holding steady at 1.0%. This price action has established a clear support level at 0.0% and a firm resistance level at 1.0%, with the market's entire history contained within this very narrow one-percent band.

Based on the provided information, there is no external context or news to explain the initial jump from 0.0% to 1.0%. The sample data shows zero trading volume associated with this price change, suggesting it may have been a result of order book adjustments rather than a transaction-driven event. While the total volume is 5,503 contracts, the lack of volume during the price shift indicates that conviction at that moment was low. The persistent price of 1.0% suggests a stable market sentiment, reflecting a consensus that there is a very low probability of the specified Ethereum price range being met on the resolution date.

## Contract Snapshot

For the $2,170 to $2,209.99 price range, a YES resolution is triggered if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 10, 2026, falls within this specific range. A NO resolution occurs if the ERTI average at that time does not fall within the stated range, as this event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on April 3, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, closes on April 10, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, and has a projected payout at 5:06 PM EDT on the same day.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $1,090 to 1,129.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $10 | $10 |
| $1,130 to 1,169.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,170 to 1,209.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,210 to 1,249.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,250 to 1,289.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,290 to 1,329.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,330 to 1,369.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,370 to 1,409.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,410 to 1,449.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,450 to 1,489.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,490 to 1,529.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,530 to 1,569.99 | 0% | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,570 to 1,609.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,610 to 1,649.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,650 to 1,689.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,690 to 1,729.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,730 to 1,769.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,770 to 1,809.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| $1,810 to 1,849.99 | 0% | 1% | 3% | $36 | $36 |
| $1,850 to 1,889.99 | 0% | 1% | 2% | $12 | $12 |
| $1,890 to 1,929.99 | 0% | 3% | 3% | $364 | $311 |
| $1,930 to 1,969.99 | 0% | 3% | 7% | $950 | $838 |
| $1,970 to 2,009.99 | 0% | 4% | 10% | $1,273 | $1,233 |
| $2,010 to 2,049.99 | 1% | 4% | 6% | $1,451 | $965 |
| $2,050 to 2,089.99 | 2% | 5% | 6% | $11,920 | $1,350 |
| $2,090 to 2,129.99 | 4% | 7% | 8% | $1,879 | $1,492 |
| $2,130 to 2,169.99 | 6% | 11% | 11% | $2,493 | $1,447 |
| $2,170 to 2,209.99 | 10% | 15% | 9% | $895 | $499 |
| $2,210 to 2,249.99 | 12% | 16% | 11% | $357 | $149 |
| $2,250 to 2,289.99 | 11% | 12% | 9% | $1,259 | $805 |
| $2,290 to 2,329.99 | 11% | 15% | 9% | $1,096 | $800 |
| $2,330 to 2,369.99 | 6% | 10% | 6% | $296 | $168 |
| $2,370 to 2,409.99 | 4% | 8% | 4% | $172 | $129 |
| $2,410 to 2,449.99 | 2% | 5% | 3% | $81 | $81 |
| $2,450 to 2,489.99 | 1% | 3% | 2% | $3 | $3 |
| $2,490 to 2,529.99 | 0% | 3% | 2% | $1 | $1 |
| $2,530 to 2,569.99 | 0% | 2% | 1% | $128 | $128 |
| $2,570 to 2,609.99 | 0% | 2% | 1% | $167 | $167 |
| $2,610 to 2,649.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $180 | $180 |
| $2,650 to 2,689.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $197 | $197 |
| $2,690 to 2,729.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $198 | $198 |
| $2,730 to 2,769.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 | $1 |
| $2,770 to 2,809.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $2 | $2 |
| $2,810 to 2,849.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $198 | $198 |
| $2,850 to 2,889.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $180 | $180 |
| $2,890 to 2,929.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $230 | $230 |
| $2,930 to 2,969.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $149 | $149 |
| $2,970 to 3,009.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $182 | $182 |
| $1,089.99 or below | 0% | 2% | 2% | $5,505 | $5,503 |
| $3,010 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What Were US Spot Ethereum ETF Inflows in Q1 2026?

Cumulative Net Inflows Q1 2026 | -$3.2 billion [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/news/post/glassnode-q-ethereum-outflows-hit-b-as-april-data-shows-stabilizing-etf-flows) |
March 2026 Flow Trend | Outflows observed [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-march-2026-flow-snapshot-etf-outflows-record-network-activity-2603/) |
Specific ETF Outflow Q1 2026 | $7.1 million [[^]](https://www.openpr.com/news/4455252/ethereum-eth-spot-etf-records-7-1m-outflow-while-q1-2026) |

**US-domiciled spot Ethereum ETFs experienced significant net outflows through Q1 2026**

US-domiciled spot Ethereum ETFs experienced significant net outflows through Q1 2026. For the period spanning their inception until March 31, 2026, cumulative net inflows into these US-domiciled spot Ethereum ETFs registered a substantial negative figure. Specifically, data concluding Q1 2026 indicates that aggregate outflows from Ethereum ETFs amounted to **$3.2** billion [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/news/post/glassnode-q-ethereum-outflows-hit-b-as-april-data-shows-stabilizing-etf-flows). This reflects a net divestment from these investment products.

Outflows characterized the first quarter, with specific instances highlighting the trend. The overall trend for Ethereum ETF flows during Q1 2026 was marked by consistent outflows, as underscored by a "March 2026 Flow Snapshot" detailing this negative activity [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-march-2026-flow-snapshot-etf-outflows-record-network-activity-2603/). Further reinforcing this pattern, one particular spot Ethereum ETF notably recorded a **$7.1** million outflow within Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.openpr.com/news/4455252/ethereum-eth-spot-etf-records-7-1m-outflow-while-q1-2026). These collective figures suggest a challenging initial period for US-domiciled spot Ethereum ETFs in attracting and retaining capital, according to institutional data providers.

## Are Layer 2 Network Transaction Volumes Predicted for Q1 2026?

Q1 2026 L2 Transaction Forecast | No direct prediction available from provided sources [[^]](https://l2beat.com/) |
Current L2 Activity Data Source | L2BEAT [[^]](https://l2beat.com/) |
Current Top L2 Networks Examples | Arbitrum One, OP Mainnet, Base, Linea, zkSync Era [[^]](https://l2beat.com/scaling/tvs?tab=rollups) |

**Future Layer 2 transaction predictions for Q1 2026 are unavailable**

Future Layer 2 transaction predictions for Q1 2026 are unavailable. The research does not provide a direct prediction for the average daily number of transactions across the top five Layer 2 networks during the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://l2beat.com/). While various analyses, such as Coin Bureau's "Best Ethereum Layer 2 Projects: Compare Top L2 Networks & Scaling Solutions In 2026," discuss Layer 2 solutions with a 2026 outlook, they do not forecast precise transaction volumes for a future quarter [[^]](http://www.coinbureau.com/analysis/what-is-the-best-layer-2). Consequently, a specific numerical answer for Q1 2026 cannot be provided based on the available information.

Current L2 adoption is reflected in TVL and transaction activity. To understand current ecosystem adoption and demand for blockspace, typical analysis involves examining current data on top Layer 2 networks by Total Value Locked (TVL) and their recent transaction activity [[^]](https://l2beat.com/scaling/tvs). L2BEAT tracks TVL for various Layer 2 solutions and provides data on average daily transactions for these networks [[^]](https://l2beat.com/). Prominent networks, often ranked among the top by TVL and transaction volume based on current data, include Arbitrum One, OP Mainnet, Base, Linea, and zkSync Era [[^]](https://l2beat.com/scaling/tvs?tab=rollups). If a current average daily transaction count across the top five Layer 2 networks were to be determined, it would involve identifying these networks by TVL from sources like L2BEAT [[^]](https://l2beat.com/scaling/tvs?tab=rollups) and then retrieving their individual average daily transaction figures from L2BEAT's activity dashboard [[^]](https://l2beat.com/scaling/activity?highlight=op-mainnet&tab=rollups). However, any calculated figure would reflect current adoption and demand and should not be misinterpreted as a forecasted value for Q1 2026, as the provided sources do not offer such forward-looking predictions [[^]](https://l2beat.com/).

## What was the total stablecoin supply in Q1 2026?

Total Stablecoin Supply (Q1 2026) | $315 billion [[^]](https://incrypted.com/en/stablecoin-supply-reached-315b-in-q1-2026/) |
USDT/USDC Supply Jan 1, 2026 | Not explicitly provided in research [[^]](https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20260104/) |
USDC Growth vs. USDT | Outpacing Tether (USDT) for second consecutive year [[^]](http://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/06/circle-s-usdc-outpaces-growth-of-tether-s-usdt-for-second-year-running) |

**The stablecoin market experienced substantial growth in early 2026**

The stablecoin **market** experienced substantial growth in early 2026. The total stablecoin **market** recorded significant expansion, with its overall supply reaching a record **$315** billion during the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://incrypted.com/en/stablecoin-supply-reached-315b-in-q1-2026/). This substantial figure encompasses various stablecoins within the crypto ecosystem, including Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), reflecting increased liquidity and capital availability.

Specific individual supply figures for January 1, 2026, are not available. While the overall **market** witnessed considerable growth, explicit circulating supply figures for Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) specifically on January 1, 2026, are not detailed in the available research. However, an important trend observed during this period was that USD Coin (USDC) continued to outpace Tether's (USDT) growth for the second consecutive year [[^]](http://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/06/circle-s-usdc-outpaces-growth-of-tether-s-usdt-for-second-year-running).

## What Percentage of Ethereum Supply Is Projected to Be Staked by 2026?

Current Staked ETH Supply | 30-32% (late 2023) [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:05a490343094b:0-ethereum-staking-ratio-hits-record-31-4-as-exchange-supply-crashes-to-2016-lows/) |
Projected Staked ETH Supply (March 1, 2026) | 40-50% [[^]](https://theethereum.wiki/news/half-of-all-ethereum-is-now-staked-what-the-50-milestone-actually-means/) |
Trend for ETH Staking | Accelerating Ether supply crunch due to increased staking [[^]](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/data-points-to-accelerating-ether-supply-crunch-will-eth-price-follow) |

**Ethereum staking currently locks about one-third of total supply**

Ethereum staking currently locks about one-third of total supply. As of late 2023, approximately 30-**32%** of Ethereum's total supply, including liquid staking derivatives, is locked in staking contracts [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:05a490343094b:0-ethereum-staking-ratio-hits-record-31-4-as-exchange-supply-crashes-to-2016-lows/). Specific reports indicate figures such as **31.4%** [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:05a490343094b:0-ethereum-staking-ratio-hits-record-31-4-as-exchange-supply-crashes-to-2016-lows/), **30%** [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/ethereum-staking-at-30-of-supply-tightens-available-**market**-float-200676807), and **32%** [[^]](https://www.mexc.co/en-NG/news/flash/100456677). This increased participation signifies growing network **confidence** and contributes to a tightening of the available **market** float, with data also pointing to an accelerating trend in Ether supply crunch due to increased staking [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/ethereum-staking-at-30-of-supply-tightens-available-**market**-float-200676807).

Staking is projected to significantly increase by early 2026. Looking ahead to March 1, 2026, projections anticipate that between **40%** and **50%** of Ethereum's total supply will be locked in staking contracts [[^]](https://theethereum.wiki/news/half-of-all-ethereum-is-now-staked-what-the-50-milestone-actually-means/). This forecast is based on current staking rates, accelerating trends, and discussions around substantial milestones, aligning with robust growth and the expected continuation of staking adoption. This anticipated rise to 40-**50%** of ETH supply being staked is expected to further tighten the circulating supply, contributing to potential supply-side scarcity and influencing Ethereum's overall **market** dynamics [[^]](https://theethereum.wiki/news/half-of-all-ethereum-is-now-staked-what-the-50-milestone-actually-means/).

## Was March 2026 ETH Call-to-Put Open Interest Ratio Available?

Specific Ratio for March 2026 ETH | Not determinable from provided research [[^]](https://www.deribit.com/statistics/ETH/metrics/options) |
$6,500 ETH Call Open Interest (early Dec 2025) | $383 million (one report) [[^]](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/6500-ether-call-options-lead-market-with-383m-open-interest/) |
Total BTC/ETH Options Open Interest (Dec 2025 expiry) | Approximately $27-28 billion [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/news/post/deribit-s-december-btc-and-eth-options-expiry-hits-record-b-notional) |

**The precise call-to-put open interest ratio for March 2026 ETH options remained undetermined**

The precise call-to-put open interest ratio for March 2026 ETH options remained undetermined. Web research could not ascertain the exact ratio of open interest in call options to put options for the March 2026 ETH expiry on Deribit, as of the final trading day of 2025. This specific data point, crucial for assessing sophisticated derivatives traders' sentiment for that expiry, was not present in the available sources. Although some sources provided Deribit URLs for February and March 2026 ETH options, these links pointed to potentially live data that could not be accessed or processed to extract the necessary historical open interest ratio [[^]](https://www.deribit.com/options/ETH/ETH-26FEB26/ETH-26FEB26-2025-C).

While specific data was unavailable, broader **market** sentiment showed key trends. General sentiment and other open interest figures were noted, despite not providing the exact March 2026 ETH call-to-put ratio. For example, in early December 2025, **$6,500** Ether call options were observed to dominate open interest on Deribit, with reports indicating **$383** million in open interest for these calls [[^]](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/6500-ether-call-options-lead-**market**-with-383m-open-interest/). Additionally, the notional value of general BTC and ETH options expiring in December 2025 reached approximately **$27**-28 billion [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/news/post/deribit-s-december-btc-and-eth-options-expiry-hits-record-b-notional). However, these observations do not specify the March 2026 expiry date nor do they provide the corresponding open interest for put options, which is essential to calculate the exact requested ratio.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 10, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 17, 2026
- **Closes:** April 10, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXETH-26APR0800-T2839.99: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXETH-26APR0800-T1380: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXETH-26APR0800-B2830: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXETH-26APR0800-B2810: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXETH-26APR0800-B2790: NO (Apr 08, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.