# Bitcoin price on May 4, 2026 at 1am EDT?

On May 4, 2026 at 1am EDT

Updated: May 4, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: Hourly
BTC

HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-may-4-2026-at-1am-edt/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds (99.4% vs 0.0%) than the market for Bitcoin to be $68,600 or above on May 4, 2026.** This is driven by expert analysts and on-chain metrics strongly suggesting significant growth well beyond this threshold.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Expert analysis and on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin growth.** - Positive regulatory developments underpin Bitcoin's **market** potential.
- Analysts project Bitcoin price in the **$84**k-**$88**k range for May.
- April 2026 MVRV Z-Score indicates Bitcoin has growth potential.
- US regulators greenlit spot Ethereum ETFs, boosting the **market**.
- Sustained institutional inflows above **$100M** would signal bullish trend.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.4%** **probability** vs 0c **market** price shows a +99.4pt gap, suggesting extreme undervaluation for BTC above **$78**k.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 0.0% | 99.4% | Model higher by 99.4pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 99.4% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +99.4pp
- Expected Return: +0.0%
- R-Score: 14.20
- Total Volume: $807,281.36
- 24h Volume: $679,183.56
- Open Interest: $442,681.38

- Expiration: May 4, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 1 AM EDT on May 4, 2026, is above 80399.99; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The official and final value is determined by averaging 60 BRTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration, with the outcome verified from CF Benchmarks. The market closes at 1:00 AM EDT on May 4, 2026, with projected payouts shortly thereafter.

## Market Discussion

The discussion is primarily focused on user complaints regarding the resolution of a similar past market, with several traders alleging a "scam" due to not receiving payouts for "Yes" positions on Bitcoin being above $80,300 at 12 AM. Aside from these payout disputes, there are no substantive arguments for "Yes" or "No" positions on the current market, with one user expressing fear while betting "No" on $80,500 or above. Overall, sentiment is mixed for $80,300, but leans strongly towards "No" for higher thresholds like $80,400 and $80,500.

## What Does Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score Indicate for Future Growth?

MVRV Z-Score (April 30, 2026) | 0.74 (11][[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/charts/30335/bitcoin-mvrv-zscore)[[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.MvrvZScore?a=BTC) |
MVRV Z-Score (December 2024) | 3.00 (11] [[^]](https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bitcoin-halving-2024/) |
Historical Post-Halving Peak Window | 367 to 547 days (8] [[^]](https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bitcoin-halving-2024/) |

**Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score in April 2026 indicates potential for growth**

Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score in April 2026 indicates potential for growth. On April 30, 2026, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score registered at 0.74. This reading suggests the **market** is not in an overheated "red zone," which typically signals a cycle peak, and therefore may have room for continued expansion [[^]](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/exploring-six-on-chain-indicators-to-understand-the-bitcoin-**market**-cycle)[[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/charts/30335/bitcoin-mvrv-zscore)[[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/**market**.MvrvZScore?a=BTC). Historically, **market** tops have been associated with an MVRV Z-Score above 6 or 7, while scores below 1 or within a "green box" have marked **market** bottoms and accumulation opportunities [[^]](https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/)[[^]](https://charts.bgeometrics.com/mvrv.html)[[^]](https://axeladlerjr.com/mvrv-z-score-how-to-identify-bitcoin-**market**-tops-and-bottoms/). The observed 0.74 score in April 2026 is significantly lower than the 3.00 recorded in December 2024, which itself was not considered an overheated state [[^]](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/exploring-six-on-chain-indicators-to-understand-the-bitcoin-**market**-cycle). Should the pattern of "diminishing multiples" for Long-Term Holder MVRV continue, future **market** highs might occur with less extreme MVRV Z-Score readings compared to previous cycles [[^]](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/mapping-bitcoins-bull-cycle-potential).

The current cycle's timing challenges historical halving peak precedents. Bitcoin bull markets have historically reached their peak approximately 367 to 547 days following a halving event [[^]](https://bitcoinsuisse.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-**market**-cycle). Given the April 2024 halving, the 24-month mark in April 2026 places the current cycle beyond this typical historical timeframe for a peak, if previous cycles peaking around 1-1.5 years post-halving are used as a precedent [[^]](https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bitcoin-halving-2024/)[[^]](https://bitcoinsuisse.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-**market**-cycle). However, the April 2026 MVRV Z-Score of 0.74 contradicts the expectation of an overheated **market** that usually characterizes a cycle peak [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/charts/30335/bitcoin-mvrv-zscore). Direct comparisons to prior cycles are further complicated by the increased institutional engagement and the introduction of traditional financial products, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [[^]](https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bitcoin-halving-2024/). Moreover, past cycles have also demonstrated a trend of "diminishing returns" in percentage gains after each successive halving [[^]](https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bitcoin-halving-2024/)[[^]](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-halving-price-history).

## How Does April 2026 Fed Funds Rate Compare to 2025 Treasury Forecasts?

Implied April 2026 Fed Funds Rate | 3.655% [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.quotes.html) |
Goldman Sachs 2025 10-Year Treasury Forecast | 3.75-4.25% (midpoint 4.00%) [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/economy/goldman-sachs-lowers-end2025-forecast-for-10year-bund-yield-3961961)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/ayco/insights/summer-review-fall-preview-2025/summer-review-fall-preview-2025.pdf) |
J.P. Morgan 2025 10-Year Treasury Outlook | Above 4% (Q4 2025) [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/liq/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/which-rates-will-fall-as-the-fed-cuts/) |

**SOFR futures imply an April 2026 Federal Funds Rate of 3.655%**

SOFR futures imply an April 2026 Federal Funds Rate of **3.655%**.
The implied Federal Funds Rate for April 2026 is approximately **3.655%**, derived from the April 2026 (SR3J6) SOFR futures contract, which settled at 96.345 as of May 1, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.quotes.html). This rate is calculated by subtracting the settlement price from 100 [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.quotes.html). This implied rate closely mirrors the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) of **3.63%** and the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) of **3.64%** observed in late April 2026 [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/4238/us-federal/17668/us-fed-fund-interest-rate).

The implied Federal Funds Rate is notably lower than 10-Year Treasury forecasts.
This short-term implied Federal Funds Rate of **3.655%** for April 2026 stands below the year-end 2025 forecasts for the US 10-Year Treasury yield from prominent financial institutions [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/economy/goldman-sachs-lowers-end2025-forecast-for-10year-bund-yield-3961961)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/ayco/insights/summer-review-fall-preview-2025/summer-review-fall-preview-2025.pdf)[[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/liq/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/which-rates-will-fall-as-the-fed-cuts/)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4856920-10-year-treasury-yield-long-term-perspective-december-2025). Goldman Sachs projected a target range of 3.75-**4.25%**, with a **4.00%** midpoint, for the 10-year yield in their 2025 outlook [[^]](https://www.investing.com/news/economy/goldman-sachs-lowers-end2025-forecast-for-10year-bund-yield-3961961)[[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/ayco/insights/summer-review-fall-preview-2025/summer-review-fall-preview-2025.pdf). Similarly, J.P. Morgan anticipated in October 2025 that the U.S. 10-year yield would likely remain above **4%** through the fourth quarter of 2025; retrospective data showed a weekly average of **4.16%** at the end of December 2025 [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/liq/insights/**market**-insights/**market**-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/which-rates-will-fall-as-the-fed-cuts/)[[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4856920-10-year-treasury-yield-long-term-perspective-december-2025).

## What Were Tether's Reserve Holdings and Legal Status in Q4 2025?

Total Reserves | $192.9B (Q4 2025) [[^]](https://tether.io/news/usdt-q4-2025-market-report/)[[^]](https://tether.io/news/tether-delivers-10b-profits-in-2025-6-3b-in-excess-reserves-and-record-141-billion-exposure-in-u-s-treasury-holdings/)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/654344) |
US Treasury Bills and Reverse Repos | 73% of reserves ($141.6B) [[^]](https://tether.io/news/usdt-q4-2025-market-report/)[[^]](https://tether.io/news/tether-delivers-10b-profits-in-2025-6-3b-in-excess-reserves-and-record-141-billion-exposure-in-u-s-treasury-holdings/)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/654344) |
Excess Reserves | $6.3B (Q4 2025) [[^]](https://tether.io/news/usdt-q4-2025-market-report/)[[^]](https://tether.io/news/tether-delivers-10b-profits-in-2025-6-3b-in-excess-reserves-and-record-141-billion-exposure-in-u-s-treasury-holdings/)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/654344) |

**Tether's Q4 2025 report revealed strong reserves and significant Treasury bill holdings**

Tether's Q4 2025 report revealed strong reserves and significant Treasury bill holdings. In its Q4 2025 attestation report, Tether reported total reserves of **$192.9** billion against liabilities of **$186.5** billion, yielding **$6.3** billion in excess reserves [[^]](https://tether.io/news/usdt-q4-2025-**market**-report/)[[^]](https://tether.io/news/tether-delivers-10b-profits-in-2025-6-3b-in-excess-reserves-and-record-141-billion-exposure-in-u-s-treasury-holdings/)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/654344). A substantial **73%** of these reserves, approximately **$141.6** billion, was held in US Treasury bills and reverse repos [[^]](https://tether.io/news/usdt-q4-2025-**market**-report/)[[^]](https://tether.io/news/tether-delivers-10b-profits-in-2025-6-3b-in-excess-reserves-and-record-141-billion-exposure-in-u-s-treasury-holdings/)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/654344). Secured loans accounted for about **5%** of reserves, estimated between **$9** billion and **$14** billion, while other investments made up approximately **2%**, according to an early 2026 analysis [[^]](https://eco.com/support/en/articles/14796320-inside-tether-usdt-reserves-explained)[[^]](https://stablecoininsider.org/tether-usdt-january-2026-reserves-report/). Additionally, Tether's reserves included 127.5 tons of gold, valued at an estimated **$13** billion to **$15** billion, and 96,184 BTC, estimated at **$8** billion to **$10** billion [[^]](https://tether.io/news/usdt-q4-2025-**market**-report/).

No substantiated reports indicated active, non-public DOJ or NYAG investigations. As of the end of Q4 2025, there were no verified reports of active, non-public investigations by the Department of Justice (DOJ) or the New York Attorney General (NYAG) concerning Tether's operations [[^]](https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/fintech/1758528/new-york-federal-court-certifies-crypto-class-action-with-modifications-and-reserves-causation-question-for-summary-judgment-proceedings). However, civil litigation remains ongoing in the Southern District of New York (SDNY), where a class was certified in March 2026 [[^]](https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/fintech/1758528/new-york-federal-court-certifies-crypto-class-action-with-modifications-and-reserves-causation-question-for-summary-judgment-proceedings)[[^]](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/16298999/654/in-re-tether-and-bitfinex-crypto-asset-litigation/). Tether has proactively collaborated with the DOJ on multiple freezes, including **$344** million in April 2026, and additional amounts of **$225** million and **$61** million linked to pig-butchering fraud schemes [[^]](https://tether.io/news/tether-supports-freeze-of-more-than-344-million-in-usdt-in-coordination-with-ofac-and-u-s-law-enforcement/)[[^]](http://tether.io/news/tether-acknowledged-by-doj-for-support-in-61-million-seizure-linked-to-pig-butchering-fraud/).

## How Did Recent Crypto Regulations Impact ETFs and European Markets?

Weekly ETH ETF Inflows | Over $160 million [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-market-shift)[[^]](http://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/16/ether-surges-10-leading-crypto-rebound-as-etf-demand-bitmine-buying-pick-up) |
ETH Price Increase | 10% to over $2300 [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-market-shift)[[^]](http://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/16/ether-surges-10-leading-crypto-rebound-as-etf-demand-bitmine-buying-pick-up) |
MiCA Licensed CASPs | Over 185 [[^]](https://sede.agenciatributaria.gob.es/Sede/en_gb/normativa-criterios-interpretativos/analisis/2026/abril/29/reglamento-mica-abril-2026-nuevo-ue.html)[[^]](https://blockeden.xyz/blog/2026/01/09/mica-eu-crypto-regulation-reshaping-european-market/) |

**US regulators greenlit spot Ethereum ETFs, driving significant market growth**

US regulators greenlit spot Ethereum ETFs, driving significant **market** growth. By March 2026, spot Ethereum ETFs were launched following regulatory approvals, leading to significant inflows and an increase in ETH's price [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-**market**-shift)[[^]](http://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/16/ether-surges-10-leading-crypto-rebound-as-etf-demand-bitmine-buying-pick-up). Notably, the SEC's approval of BlackRock ETHB, which featured staking, saw over **$160** million in weekly inflows, driving ETH's price up **10%** to over **$2300** [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-**market**-shift)[[^]](http://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/16/ether-surges-10-leading-crypto-rebound-as-etf-demand-bitmine-buying-pick-up). This development was underpinned by a pro-crypto stance from US financial regulators, with SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig adopting policies that facilitated over 126 pending ETF filings and classified 16 cryptocurrencies, including ETH and BTC, as commodities [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-**market**-shift)[[^]](https://phemex.com/blogs/sec-rules-crypto-etfs)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/about/sec-commissioners/paul-s-atkins)[[^]](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025-68)[[^]](https://www.cftc.gov/About/Commissioners/MichaelSelig/index.htm).

The EU's MiCA framework profoundly reshaped European crypto operations. By April 2026, this framework led to the licensing of over 185 Crypto-Asset Service Providers (CASPs), the issuance of more than €540 million in fines, and over 50 revocations [[^]](https://sede.agenciatributaria.gob.es/Sede/en_gb/normativa-criterios-interpretativos/analisis/2026/abril/29/reglamento-mica-abril-2026-nuevo-ue.html)[[^]](https://blockeden.xyz/blog/2026/01/09/mica-eu-crypto-regulation-reshaping-european-**market**/). The regulation also resulted in the delisting of USDT and fostered a preference for euro-backed stablecoins, collectively altering the landscape for crypto services in the EU [[^]](https://sede.agenciatributaria.gob.es/Sede/en_gb/normativa-criterios-interpretativos/analisis/2026/abril/29/reglamento-mica-abril-2026-nuevo-ue.html)[[^]](https://blockeden.xyz/blog/2026/01/09/mica-eu-crypto-regulation-reshaping-european-**market**/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Several key catalysts could influence Bitcoin's market trajectory around May 2026, primarily revolving around institutional investment, monetary policy, and geopolitical stability.** A bullish shift would likely require sustained institutional net inflows, particularly if they exceed **$100** million for multiple consecutive days. Conversely, persistent hawkish macroeconomic stances or escalating global conflicts could reinforce a bearish outlook [[^]](https://www.coingabbar.com/en/price-prediction/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-for-may-2026).

**Specific events highlighted include MicroStrategy's earnings, anticipated as early as May 5, which could impact sentiment given the company's substantial Bitcoin holdings [[^]](https://www.coingabbar.com/en/price-prediction/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-for-may-2026).** Additionally, a significant catalyst could be a potential transition in Federal Reserve leadership by May 15, with a shift to a more accommodative figure like Kevin Warsh possibly signaling a more dovish monetary policy. Geopolitical events, such as developments in the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on oil prices and inflation, are also critical, with a ceasefire potentially lowering inflationary pressures and an escalation driving risk-off sentiment [[^]](https://www.coingabbar.com/en/price-prediction/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-for-may-2026).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** May 04, 2026
- **Expiration:** May 11, 2026
- **Closes:** May 04, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Several key catalysts could influence Bitcoin's **market** trajectory around May 2026, primarily revolving around institutional investment, monetary policy, and geopolitical stability.
- A bullish shift would likely require sustained institutional net inflows, particularly if they exceed **$100** million for multiple consecutive days.
- Conversely, persistent hawkish macroeconomic stances or escalating global conflicts could reinforce a bearish outlook [^] .
- Specific events highlighted include MicroStrategy's earnings, anticipated as early as May 5, which could impact sentiment given the company's substantial Bitcoin holdings [^] .

## Related Research Reports

- [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/)
- [How high will BNB get in April?](/markets/crypto/bnb/how-high-will-bnb-get-in-april/)
- [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/)
- [Bitcoin price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBTCD-26MAY0400-T87299.99: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26MAY0400-T87199.99: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26MAY0400-T87099.99: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26MAY0400-T86999.99: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26MAY0400-T86899.99: NO (May 04, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-may-4-2026-at-1am-edt
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