# Bitcoin price on Apr 8, 2026 at 10am EDT?

On Apr 8, 2026 at 10am EDT

Updated: April 8, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: Hourly
BTC

HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-8-2026-at-10am-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing: Bitcoin at **$59,100** or above on April 8, 2026, at **99.1%** **model** vs **0.0%** **market**, suggesting a strong bullish outlook based on December 2025 options **market** data.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - December 2025 options data reveals strong bullish sentiment.** - December 2025 options max pain point provides strong price support.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows during Q1 2026.
- Long-term holders typically distribute Bitcoin in post-halving cycles.
- Investment banks anticipate several Fed rate cuts by late 2025.
- Prediction markets indicate high odds for general crypto legislation.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** estimates **99.1%** **probability** vs 0c **market** (0.0x payout), strongly supported by bullish options data.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 0.0% | 99.1% | Model higher by 99.1pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 99.1% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +99.1pp
- Expected Return: +0.0%
- R-Score: 12.39
- Total Volume: $340,731
- 24h Volume: $221,848
- Open Interest: $210,892

- Expiration: April 8, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to YES if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 10 AM EDT on April 8, 2026, is above $72,599.99; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The final value is determined by averaging 60 BRTI prices collected in the minute before expiration, with CF Benchmarks as the official source. The market opens at 9:00 AM EDT and closes at 10:00 AM EDT on April 8, 2026, with a projected payout at 10:06 AM EDT the same day.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## How Do Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Behave Post-Halving?

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) Definition | Addresses holding Bitcoin for >155 days [[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/Long-term_holder_supply) |
Previous Post-Halving LTH Behavior | Accumulated during bear markets and early bull market phases, then distributed as prices rose significantly [[^]](https://insights.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/) |
Early 2024 Post-Halving LTH Selling | Observed selling at "historic levels" [[^]](https://yellow.com/news/bitcoin-long-term-holders-selling-at-historic-levels-cryptoquant-data-reveals) |

**Past cycles show Long-Term Holders (LTHs) accumulate then distribute Bitcoin post-halving**

Past cycles show Long-Term Holders (LTHs) accumulate then distribute Bitcoin post-halving. In the 18 months following the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halvings, LTHs—defined as addresses holding Bitcoin for over 155 days [[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/Long-term_holder_supply)—typically began with an accumulation phase during **market** bottoms and early bull runs, increasing their overall supply [[^]](https://insights.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/). As **market** prices appreciated significantly, LTHs gradually entered a distribution phase, transferring coins to newer **market** participants and consequently decreasing the supply they held [[^]](https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-lth-vs-sth-supply-dynamics-cost-basis-**market**-structure). This pattern resulted in the rate of change in LTH supply shifting from positive during accumulation to negative during distribution over these periods [[^]](https://docs.glassnode.com/guides-and-tutorials/metric-guides/long-and-short-term-holder-supply/supply-held-by-long-and-short-term-holders).

The cost basis for LTHs typically rises throughout post-halving bull markets. The Long-Term Holder Realized Price, which represents the average acquisition cost for all LTHs, consistently increased during previous post-halving bull markets [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/btc-lth-realized-price-mvrv). This upward trend indicates that coins accumulated by LTHs, or those maturing into LTH status, were often acquired at progressively higher prices as the **market** appreciated [[^]](https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-lth-vs-sth-supply-dynamics-cost-basis-**market**-structure). Additionally, when LTHs sold coins at a profit, the realized price of the remaining LTH supply could also increase if the selling LTHs had a lower cost basis than the overall average, effectively raising the average cost for those who continued to hold [[^]](https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-lth-vs-sth-supply-dynamics-cost-basis-**market**-structure).

Early 2024 halving observations show unique Long-Term Holder selling patterns. Direct comparative data for the full 18 months post-April 2024 halving is not yet available. However, initial observations indicate a notable difference in early LTH behavior compared to previous post-halving cycles, with LTHs identified as selling at "historic levels" in the period leading up to and immediately following the April 2024 halving [[^]](https://yellow.com/news/bitcoin-long-term-holders-selling-at-historic-levels-cryptoquant-data-reveals). This early distribution, rather than a strong initial accumulation phase, suggests a potentially different initial rate of change in LTH supply compared to 2016-2017 and 2020-2021. Should this trend of LTH selling continue, it could lead to the aggregate cost basis of the remaining LTH supply increasing to higher levels sooner than in previous cycles, as coins with lower cost bases are distributed while new or remaining LTHs accumulate at current, elevated price points [[^]](https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-lth-vs-sth-supply-dynamics-cost-basis-**market**-structure).

## How Did US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Perform in Q1 2026?

Q1 2026 Spot Bitcoin ETF Performance | Overall net outflows [[^]](https://cryptodailyink.com/articles/sarah-johnson/bitcoin-etf-march-inflows-q1-outflows) |
March 2026 ETF Flows | First month of inflows for 2026 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/01/bitcoin-etfs-post-first-inflows-since-october-as-price-stabilizes) |
Correlation Data Availability | No specific quantitative data linking ETF flow velocity to BTC balance changes on exchanges [[^]](https://bitcoinnewsoffice.com/etf.html) |

**U.S**

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows during Q1 2026. Prominent funds such as IBIT and FBTC, along with others, recorded overall net outflows during the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://cryptodailyink.com/articles/sarah-johnson/bitcoin-etf-march-inflows-q1-outflows). A notable shift occurred in March 2026, which represented the first month of inflows for these exchange-traded funds since October of the previous year [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/01/bitcoin-etfs-post-first-inflows-since-october-as-price-stabilizes). This ongoing dynamic highlights the sustained influence of institutional demand within the **market** for these investment vehicles [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/bitcoin-etfs-gain-as-institutional-demand-continues-to-support-flows-200677973).

However, direct correlation data between ETF flows and exchange balances is unavailable. The research does not provide specific quantitative information to directly correlate the velocity of these ETF net flows with changes in BTC balances on major exchanges, including Coinbase and Binance. The available sources primarily concentrate on the performance, inflows, and outflows of the ETFs themselves, and the general impact of institutional interest on the **market** [[^]](https://bitcoinnewsoffice.com/etf.html).

## What Are Key Forecasts for Fed Rates, Balance Sheet, and Bitcoin?

US Fed Funds Rate Forecast 2025 | 4.50%-4.75% (JPMorgan) [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/ch/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-december-2025/) |
Fed Balance Sheet by March 2026 | Approximately $7.6 trillion [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm) |
Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 Correlation | Generally positive, strengthens with liquidity increases [[^]](https://blog.amberdata.io/bitcoin-below-70k-the-crash-the-data-and-what-comes-next) |

**Major investment banks anticipate several Federal Funds Rate cuts by year-end 2025**

Major investment banks anticipate several Federal Funds Rate cuts by year-end 2025. JPMorgan Asset Management projects the Federal Funds Rate will range from **4.50%** to **4.75%** by the end of 2025 [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/ch/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-december-2025/). Goldman Sachs also foresees three rate cuts in 2025 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-sachs-expects-fed-deliver-three-rate-cuts-2025-2025-07-01/), aligning with the Federal Open **Market** Committee's (FOMC) median projection of **4.75%** [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20251210.pdf). This forecast is further supported by SIFMA's median expectation of **4.50%**-**4.75%** for the Federal Funds Rate by year-end 2025 [[^]](https://www.sifma.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/SIFMA-Economics-Flash-Poll-3Q25.pdf).

Quantitative tightening is expected to continue reducing the Fed's balance sheet through 2025. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which stood at approximately **$7.6** trillion as of March 26, 2026 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm), is projected to undergo further sustained reduction [[^]](https://am.jpmorgan.com/ch/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-december-2025/). This reflects an ongoing decrease from its peak, with asset reduction continuing, albeit potentially at a slower pace, by year-end 2025.

Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 responds to liquidity projections. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 generally shows a positive relationship, indicating that Bitcoin's price movements often move in tandem with broader technology **market** sentiment [[^]](https://blog.amberdata.io/bitcoin-below-70k-the-crash-the-data-and-what-comes-next). This correlation is responsive to shifts in forward-looking liquidity projections, strengthening when increased liquidity is anticipated, such as through more aggressive interest rate cuts, and maintaining but weakening when liquidity tightening is expected [[^]](https://blog.amberdata.io/bitcoin-below-70k-the-crash-the-data-and-what-comes-next).

## Will Restrictive Crypto Legislation Pass Before 2026 Midterms?

Clarity Act Probability | 82% by 2026 [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-odds-clarity-act-passing-120311993.html) |
Comprehensive Crypto Regulation | Anticipated by 2026 [[^]](https://coincentral.com/crypto-industry-eyes-2026-for-major-u-s-legislation-amid-political-risks/) |
Restrictive Bitcoin Act Odds | Not detailed in available sources [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/954/text) |

**Political betting markets indicate high odds for general crypto legislation**

Political betting markets indicate high odds for general crypto legislation. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, suggest an **82%** **probability** that a "Clarity Act" will be signed into law by 2026 [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-odds-clarity-act-passing-120311993.html). This reflects a broader industry expectation for major U.S. legislation to pass before the 2026 midterm elections [[^]](https://coincentral.com/crypto-industry-eyes-2026-for-major-u-s-legislation-amid-political-risks/). Such legislation, exemplified by bills like the "Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act of 2026" (S. 3611) [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/s3611), typically aims to establish comprehensive regulatory frameworks and provide legal clarity for digital assets [[^]](https://www.bitrue.com/blog/crypto-bill-congress-2026-comprehensive-regulation). These anticipated bills are generally perceived as offering regulatory certainty and **market** structure for digital assets rather than imposing outright bans on self-custody or direct limitations on mining energy consumption [[^]](https://www.bitrue.com/blog/crypto-bill-congress-2026-comprehensive-regulation).

Specific restrictive crypto legislation lacks prediction **market** probabilities. The available research does not provide specific prediction **market** probabilities for the U.S. Congress passing restrictive crypto legislation that directly targets self-custody, imposes limitations on mining energy usage, or explicitly re-classifies Bitcoin in a negative or restrictive manner before the 2026 midterm elections. While bills such as the "BITCOIN Act of 2025" (S.954) exist [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/954/text), the research does not detail its specific provisions regarding re-classification or its likelihood of passage with associated prediction **market** odds. Furthermore, some reports indicate ongoing challenges and uncertainties in the legislative process for certain proposals, with suggestions that "the crypto bill is falling apart in Congress" [[^]](https://on.theverge.com/column/868941/clarity-act-congress-shutdown).

## What Does December 2025 BTC Options Data Reveal?

Implied Volatility | ~75% short-term, ~70% longer-dated (December 2025) [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/) |
Put/Call Ratio | ~0.78 (December 2025) [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/) |
Max Pain Point | ~$87,500 (December 2025 expiry) [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/) |

**December 2025 BTC options show increased volatility and bullish sentiment**

December 2025 BTC options show increased volatility and bullish sentiment. Implied volatility for Bitcoin options expiring in December 2025 on Deribit demonstrated a notable increase, signaling heightened **market** uncertainty. Short-term implied volatility reached approximately **75%**, while longer-dated expiries exhibited elevated levels around **70%** [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/). The put/call ratio for these options was approximately 0.78 [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/), indicating a predominantly bullish bias among **market** participants, with call options open interest significantly outweighing put options [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/).

Open interest clusters indicate key **market** price expectations. The largest open interest strike prices for the December 2025 BTC options expiry are primarily concentrated between **$85,000** and **$90,000** [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/). Significant open interest is also evident around the **$100,000** strike price, particularly with a substantial amount of call options [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/). Conversely, a notable presence of put options is observed within the **$70,000** to **$75,000** range [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/). The estimated "max pain" point for this December 2025 expiry is approximately **$87,500** [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/). These strike price clusters highlight key levels of **market** expectation and potential hedging pressure, as traders position for the substantial year-end event [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/28b-deribit-btc-options-expiry-implications-short-term-volatility-price-direction-2512/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 08, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 15, 2026
- **Closes:** April 08, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBTCD-26APR0809-T77799.99: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR0809-T77699.99: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR0809-T77599.99: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR0809-T77499.99: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR0809-T77399.99: NO (Apr 08, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.