# Bitcoin price on Apr 26, 2026 at 10pm EDT? On Apr 26, 2026 at 10pm EDT Updated: April 27, 2026 Category: Crypto Tags: Hourly BTC HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-26-2026-at-10pm-edt/ ## Short Answer **The model sees potential mispricing for Bitcoin's price to be $68,100 or above on April 26, 2026, assigning a 99.1% probability versus the market's 0.0%.** This outlook is supported by anticipated Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion and significant spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet during Q4 2025.** - US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated **$56.09** billion net flow by Q1 2026. - Mt. Gox Bitcoin distribution will continue past Q1 2026. - Balance sheet expansion and ETF inflows generally support Bitcoin's price. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.1%** **probability** contrasts with 0c **market**, implying a 0.0x payout despite supportive Fed and ETF inflows. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 0.0% | 99.1% | Model higher by 99.1pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 99.1% (Yes) - Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +99.1pp - Expected Return: +0.0% - R-Score: 12.39 - Total Volume: $1,025,515.29 - 24h Volume: $774,322.01 - Open Interest: $383,093.03 - Expiration: April 27, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics No historical price data available. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if the simple average of the 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately preceding 10:00 PM EDT on April 26, 2026, is above $79,299.99; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opens at 9:00 PM EDT and closes at 10:00 PM EDT on April 26, 2026, with a projected payout at 10:06 PM EDT. Resolution is based exclusively on the specified CF Benchmarks data, not other cryptocurrency price sources. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## What Was the Cumulative Net Flow for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2026? Cumulative Net Flow (End Q1 2026) | $56.09 billion (calculated from [[^]](https://btc.network/blog/spot-bitcoin-etf-cumulative-inflows-56-51b-april-2026)) | Q1 2026 Net Outflow | $500 million [[^]](https://btc.network/blog/spot-bitcoin-etf-cumulative-inflows-56-51b-april-2026) | Cumulative Net Inflows (by April 2026) | $56.51 billion [[^]](https://btc.network/blog/spot-bitcoin-etf-cumulative-inflows-56-51b-april-2026) | **US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $56.09 billion net flow by Q1 2026** US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached **$56.09** billion net flow by Q1 2026. The cumulative net flow into all US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, from their inception in January 2024 through the end of Q1 2026, is estimated at approximately **$56.09** billion. This figure incorporates a significant net outflow of **$500** million experienced during the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://btc.network/blog/spot-bitcoin-etf-cumulative-inflows-56-51b-april-2026), followed by a partial recovery observed in early April of the same year. Cumulative inflows totaled **$56.51** billion by April 2026, factoring a Q1 outflow. By April 2026, cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs had reached **$56.51** billion [[^]](https://btc.network/blog/spot-bitcoin-etf-cumulative-inflows-56-51b-april-2026). At that point, the ETFs were approximately **$80** million away from recovering all their 2026 losses, indicating a year-to-date net outflow of about **$80** million for 2026 [[^]](https://btc.network/blog/spot-bitcoin-etf-cumulative-inflows-56-51b-april-2026). To derive the cumulative net flow specifically through the end of Q1 2026, the net inflows recorded during the reported portion of April 2026 were subtracted from the cumulative April figure. These early April inflows amounted to roughly **$420** million, calculated as the **$500** million Q1 outflow minus the **$80** million year-to-date outflow by April [[^]](https://btc.network/blog/spot-bitcoin-etf-cumulative-inflows-56-51b-april-2026). Subtracting this **$420** million from the **$56.51** billion cumulative figure reported in April 2026 yields the **$56.09** billion cumulative net inflow through Q1 2026. ## What is the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change Prediction for March 2026? Prediction for March 31, 2026 | Not available based on provided research [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/supply.LthNetChange?a=BTC) | Recent 30-day average LTH supply increase | 308,000 coins [[^]](https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2257090) | LTH accumulation in three months | 3.06 million BTC [[^]](https://www.bitcoinlinux.com/bitcoin-lths-accumulate-3-06m-btc-in-3-months-despite-rising-selling-pressure/) | **No specific prediction for LTH Net Position Change is available** No specific prediction for LTH Net Position Change is available. The available web research does not contain a specific prediction for the 90-day moving average of the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change metric for March 31, 2026. The provided sources primarily focus on historical data and recent trends of LTH accumulation or distribution, rather than future predictions for this specific date [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/supply.LthNetChange?a=BTC). Historical LTH data and trends do not forecast future metrics. While recent reports indicate that the supply of long-term Bitcoin holders has turned positive, with the 30-day average increasing to 308,000 coins according to CryptoQuant data, and LTHs accumulating 3.06 million BTC in three months despite rising selling pressure, these figures represent past or current trends [[^]](https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2257090). Although one source title mentions "Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply: Cycle Analysis - March 2026," its content description does not provide the requested specific predictive data point for the 90-day moving average of the LTH Net Position Change metric on that exact future date [[^]](https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-lth-realized-supply-current-status-analysis-and-cycle-comparison/). Therefore, a definitive prediction for the 90-day moving average of the LTH Net Position Change metric specifically for March 31, 2026, cannot be determined based on the provided research [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/supply.LthNetChange?a=BTC). ## Did the Federal Reserve Expand its Balance Sheet in Q4 2025? RMP Initiation Date | October 2025 [[^]](https://api.finexus.net/api/news/economic/6e5273d0-19c3-4d18-aad6-f25c07cb1ae4/html) | Total Assets (December 2025) | Approximately $6.7 trillion [[^]](https://api.finexus.net/api/news/economic/6e5273d0-19c3-4d18-aad6-f25c07cb1ae4/html) | Nature of Expansion | Distinct from traditional Quantitative Easing (QE) [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/balance_sheet_developments_report_202511.pdf) | **The Federal Reserve initiated balance sheet expansion during Q4 2025** The Federal Reserve initiated balance sheet expansion during Q4 2025. This shift marked a pivot from its policy of Quantitative Tightening (QT), evidenced by the commencement of "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) in October 2025 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/balance_sheet_developments_report_202511.pdf). These operations were undertaken to ensure ample reserves within the banking system and stabilize **market** liquidity [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/prnews.pressrelease/article/marketminute-2026-1-19-the-great-unwind-concludes-federal-reserve-formally-ends-quantitative-tightening-to-stabilize-**market**-liquidity). The Federal Reserve's H.4.1 release on October 30, 2025, confirmed the beginning of this asset increase, leading to a sustained, month-over-month rise in the total assets on the Fed's balance sheet throughout Q4 2025 [[^]](https://api.finexus.net/api/news/economic/6e5273d0-19c3-4d18-aad6-f25c07cb1ae4/html). By December 2025, total assets reached approximately **$6.7** trillion, an increase from mid-2025 levels [[^]](https://api.finexus.net/api/news/economic/6e5273d0-19c3-4d18-aad6-f25c07cb1ae4/html). The Fed explicitly distinguished this expansion from traditional Quantitative Easing. While there was a clear pivot from balance sheet contraction to expansion during Q4 2025, it was not officially labeled as Quantitative Easing [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/prnews.pressrelease/article/marketminute-2026-1-19-the-great-unwind-concludes-federal-reserve-formally-ends-quantitative-tightening-to-stabilize-**market**-liquidity). The Federal Reserve clarified that RMP was a technical adjustment aimed at liquidity management, focusing on purchasing Treasury bills to bolster bank reserves. This contrasts with traditional QE, which is a broad-based monetary policy tool primarily used for economic stimulus [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating%5Fpolicy%5F251210a). The FOMC minutes from December 10, 2025, and November 2025 reports reiterated the continuation of RMP to maintain adequate reserve levels [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/balance_sheet_developments_report_202511.pdf). ## Will Mt. Gox BTC Distribution Be Completed by Q1 2026? New Repayment Deadline | October 31, 2026 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/27/mt-gox-delays-creditor-repayment-to-october-2026) | Extension Announcement Date | October 27, 2025 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/27/mt-gox-delays-creditor-repayment-to-october-2026) | BTC Holdings | Approximately 142,000 BTC [[^]](https://cryptoresearch.report/crypto-research/navigating-the-mt-gox-payout-what-creditors-need-to-know-about-the-latest-delays-and-2026-deadline/) | **Mt** Mt. Gox Bitcoin distribution will not finish by Q1 2026. The distribution of approximately 142,000 BTC holdings by the Mt. Gox trustee will not be fully completed by the end of Q1 2026. This is primarily because the official deadline for cryptocurrency and fiat repayment has been extended to October 31, 2026 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/27/mt-gox-delays-creditor-repayment-to-october-2026). This extension was formally announced by the Mt. Gox trustee on October 27, 2025 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/27/mt-gox-delays-creditor-repayment-to-october-2026). Consequently, the distribution process for these substantial Bitcoin holdings and other assets is projected to continue beyond the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://cryptoresearch.report/crypto-research/navigating-the-mt-gox-payout-what-creditors-need-to-know-about-the-latest-delays-and-2026-deadline/). Creditor repayments will not finalize by March 31, 2026. Given the extended official deadline of October 31, 2026, the full distribution to creditors will not be finalized by March 31, 2026 [[^]](https://cryptoresearch.report/crypto-research/navigating-the-mt-gox-payout-what-creditors-need-to-know-about-the-latest-delays-and-2026-deadline/). This indicates that the potential supply overhang from these assets will not be entirely resolved by the end of Q1 2026. While some repayments have already commenced [[^]](https://coincentral.com/mt-gox-resumes-bitcoin-movement-before-creditor-repayment-deadline-in-2026/), the comprehensive distribution process is scheduled to conclude closer to the updated October 2026 deadline. ## What is the highest Bitcoin call option open interest for June 2026 on Deribit? Highest June 2026 Call OI Strike | Not explicitly detailed (web research) [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-options-downside-insurance-75k-85k-june-2026/) | Notable Strike Price Interest | $100,000 (around January 30 expiry) [[^]](https://blog.tapbit.com/bitcoin-100k-options-alert-deribit-jan-30-calls-see-massive-open-interest-build-rally-signal-or-trap/) | Real-time Data Sources | Deribit, Glassnode, CoinGlass [[^]](https://www.deribit.com/options/BTC/BTC-26JUN26) | **The precise strike price with the highest open interest for Bitcoin call options expiring in June 2026 on the Deribit exchange as of January 31, 2026, is not explicitly provided within the available research [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-options-downside-insurance-75k-85k-june-2026/)** The precise strike price with the highest open interest for Bitcoin call options expiring in June 2026 on the Deribit exchange as of January 31, 2026, is not explicitly provided within the available research [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-options-downside-insurance-75k-85k-june-2026/). This specific data point pertains to a future date, and its determination necessitates continuous monitoring of real-time **market** activity. To obtain this information, ongoing analysis of platforms such as Deribit's official options page, Glassnode's open interest distribution charts, or CoinGlass's options data analysis would be required [[^]](https://www.deribit.com/options/BTC/BTC-26JUN26). **$100,000** strike has historically garnered significant interest. While direct data for June 2026 call options on the specified future date is not available, prior **market** activity on Deribit for Bitcoin options offers relevant insights. A 'massive open interest build' was previously observed for Bitcoin **$100,000** call options expiring around January 30 (referring to a past or near-future January expiry), signaling this level as a notable psychological and potential price target for **market** participants [[^]](https://blog.tapbit.com/bitcoin-100k-options-alert-deribit-jan-30-calls-see-massive-open-interest-build-rally-signal-or-trap/). This historical interest suggests that a **$100,000** strike could be a significant level for longer-dated options like those expiring in June 2026, although its status as the highest open interest for that specific expiry and future date is not definitively confirmed by the available research [[^]](https://blog.tapbit.com/bitcoin-100k-options-alert-deribit-jan-30-calls-see-massive-open-interest-build-rally-signal-or-trap/). Additionally, discussions around June 2026 Bitcoin options have mentioned strike ranges such as **$75,000**-**$85,000,** primarily in the context of downside protection [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-options-downside-insurance-75k-85k-june-2026/). **Market**'s consensus target is dynamic, needing constant analysis. The **market**'s consensus upside price target, as reflected by options open interest, is a dynamic metric that continuously evolves with changing **market** conditions. For a precise determination of the highest open interest strike for June 2026 call options as of January 31, 2026, ongoing analysis of Deribit's options **market** data remains essential [[^]](https://www.deribit.com/options/BTC/BTC-26JUN26). However, based on broader trends and notable strike prices highlighted in the available research, the **$100,000** target has historically been a significant focal point for **market** participants in recent Bitcoin options cycles [[^]](https://blog.tapbit.com/bitcoin-100k-options-alert-deribit-jan-30-calls-see-massive-open-interest-build-rally-signal-or-trap/). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** April 27, 2026 - **Expiration:** May 04, 2026 - **Closes:** April 27, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-24-2026-at-5pm-edt/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86799.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86699.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86599.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86499.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86399.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.