# Bitcoin price on Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

On Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 14, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: Hourly
BTC

HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-17-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Bitcoin's price to be **$59,000** or above on April 17, 2026, seeing no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Institutional and retail adoption drives significant capital into Bitcoin ETFs.** - US spot Bitcoin ETFs project substantial net inflows exceeding **$100** billion.
- Long-dated options show strong **market** expectations for **$70**-100k Bitcoin price.
- December 2025 Bitcoin options show significant open interest exceeding **$20** billion.
- The 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle exhibits unique pre-halving **market** characteristics.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** (**99.3%**) sees **2.3%** higher **probability** than 97c **market**, driven by projected substantial Bitcoin ETF inflows.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $73,000 or above | 66.0% | 71.7% | Long-dated options reflect strong market expectations for Bitcoin prices above $70,000. |
| $72,000 or above | 77.0% | 81.5% | Long-dated options reflect strong market expectations for Bitcoin prices above $70,000. |
| $71,000 or above | 86.0% | 89.1% | Long-dated options reflect strong market expectations for Bitcoin prices above $70,000. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $73,000 or above | 66.0% | 71.7% |
| $72,000 or above | 77.0% | 81.5% |
| $71,000 or above | 86.0% | 89.1% |
| $73,500 or above | 65.0% | 70.8% |
| $70,000 or above | 91.0% | 93.1% |
| $75,000 or above | 42.0% | 48.1% |
| $72,500 or above | 72.0% | 77.2% |
| $71,500 or above | 80.0% | 84.1% |
| $74,000 or above | 55.0% | 61.3% |
| $74,500 or above | 51.0% | 57.3% |
| $70,500 or above | 90.0% | 92.3% |
| $79,000 or above | 9.0% | 10.9% |
| $80,000 or above | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| $76,000 or above | 33.0% | 38.4% |
| $67,500 or above | 95.0% | 96.2% |
| $78,000 or above | 15.0% | 29.5% |
| $68,500 or above | 94.0% | 95.5% |
| $69,500 or above | 94.0% | 95.5% |
| $75,500 or above | 36.0% | 41.7% |
| $69,000 or above | 94.0% | 95.5% |
| $77,000 or above | 22.0% | 29.5% |
| $66,500 or above | 95.0% | 99.3% |
| $68,000 or above | 95.0% | 96.2% |
| $77,500 or above | 17.0% | 29.5% |
| $76,500 or above | 27.0% | 31.8% |
| $66,000 or above | 96.0% | 99.3% |
| $79,500 or above | 5.0% | 6.1% |
| $65,000 or above | 99.0% | 99.3% |
| $81,000 or above | 5.0% | 6.1% |
| $67,000 or above | 99.0% | 99.3% |
| $78,500 or above | 25.0% | 29.5% |
| $64,500 or above | 98.0% | 99.3% |
| $80,500 or above | 5.0% | 6.1% |
| $81,500 or above | 4.0% | 4.9% |
| $60,500 or above | 98.0% | 99.3% |
| $59,000 or above | 97.0% | 99.3% |
| $82,000 or above | 3.0% | 3.7% |
| $64,000 or above | 99.0% | 99.3% |
| $60,000 or above | 97.0% | 99.3% |
| $62,500 or above | 95.0% | 99.3% |
| $65,500 or above | 96.0% | 99.3% |
| $83,500 or above | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| $62,000 or above | 96.0% | 99.3% |
| $61,500 or above | 95.0% | 99.3% |
| $83,000 or above | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| $63,500 or above | 97.0% | 99.3% |
| $59,500 or above | 97.0% | 99.3% |
| $82,500 or above | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| $61,000 or above | 99.0% | 99.3% |
| $63,000 or above | 97.0% | 99.3% |

- Expiration: April 17, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, this prediction market has displayed a clear upward trend within a very high probability range. The market opened with a 91.0% probability for a "YES" outcome and has since climbed to its current price of 97.0%. The most significant price movement occurred between April 10th and April 12th, when the probability jumped 6 percentage points from 91.0% to 97.0%. Since this spike, the price has stabilized and consolidated around the 97.0% level. No specific market news or external context was provided to explain this sharp increase in probability.

The total trading volume of 1,382 contracts suggests a moderate level of participation and conviction among traders. From a technical perspective, the opening price of 91.0% acted as an initial support level before the sharp move upwards. The current price of 97.0% has now established itself as a new and strong support level, holding steady for several days. The chart summary indicates a price high of 99.0%, which can be viewed as a key resistance level that the market has tested. Overall, the consistently high probability and upward trend indicate a strong and growing market consensus. The chart suggests that market sentiment is overwhelmingly confident that the price of Bitcoin will be below the $58,999.99 threshold at the time of resolution.

## Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if the simple average of the 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 17, 2026, is above $74,499.99. Conversely, a "No" resolution occurs if this average is $74,499.99 or below. The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 17, 2026, and the final value is determined by averaging 60 BRTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration, with projected payouts by 5:06 PM EDT on the same day.

## Market Discussion

Traders on the Kalshi market for Bitcoin's price on April 17, 2026, are expressing mixed sentiments, with some betting on significant upward movement while others anticipate a notable decline. Bullish traders are targeting levels as high as $81,000, albeit with low confidence, while bearish traders predict the price could drop below $72,000. This division is evident in the near 50/50 probability for Bitcoin being $74,500 or above, indicating no strong consensus on its direction around this key price point.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $59,000 or above | 98% | 100% | 97% | $1,382 | $1,372 |
| $59,500 or above | 99% | 100% | 97% | $383 | $382 |
| $60,000 or above | 98% | 100% | 97% | $1,139 | $1,139 |
| $60,500 or above | 98% | 100% | 98% | $2,276 | $2,248 |
| $61,000 or above | 98% | 100% | 99% | $50 | $49 |
| $61,500 or above | 98% | 100% | 95% | $495 | $490 |
| $62,000 or above | 98% | 100% | 96% | $577 | $573 |
| $62,500 or above | 98% | 100% | 95% | $897 | $895 |
| $63,000 or above | 98% | 100% | 97% | $20 | $20 |
| $63,500 or above | 98% | 100% | 97% | $405 | $399 |
| $64,000 or above | 97% | 99% | 99% | $1,362 | $983 |
| $64,500 or above | 97% | 99% | 98% | $3,746 | $2,660 |
| $65,000 or above | 97% | 99% | 99% | $6,339 | $4,013 |
| $65,500 or above | 96% | 98% | 96% | $880 | $620 |
| $66,000 or above | 96% | 98% | 96% | $7,235 | $6,131 |
| $66,500 or above | 95% | 98% | 95% | $8,431 | $7,551 |
| $67,000 or above | 95% | 99% | 99% | $5,596 | $4,408 |
| $67,500 or above | 96% | 97% | 95% | $15,744 | $12,416 |
| $68,000 or above | 95% | 97% | 95% | $8,237 | $5,544 |
| $68,500 or above | 94% | 96% | 94% | $13,612 | $7,074 |
| $69,000 or above | 93% | 94% | 94% | $11,155 | $6,964 |
| $69,500 or above | 92% | 94% | 94% | $13,586 | $5,481 |
| $70,000 or above | 90% | 91% | 91% | $39,610 | $13,403 |
| $70,500 or above | 88% | 90% | 90% | $23,425 | $8,774 |
| $71,000 or above | 84% | 85% | 86% | $64,694 | $16,177 |
| $71,500 or above | 81% | 82% | 80% | $31,298 | $7,946 |
| $72,000 or above | 77% | 78% | 77% | $66,365 | $15,918 |
| $72,500 or above | 72% | 73% | 72% | $37,111 | $13,102 |
| $73,000 or above | 66% | 68% | 66% | $70,700 | $13,118 |
| $73,500 or above | 62% | 63% | 65% | $45,170 | $13,228 |
| $74,000 or above | 55% | 56% | 55% | $30,999 | $12,794 |
| $74,500 or above | 48% | 50% | 51% | $24,982 | $9,823 |
| $75,000 or above | 41% | 42% | 42% | $39,102 | $17,110 |
| $75,500 or above | 34% | 36% | 36% | $11,587 | $4,884 |
| $76,000 or above | 30% | 31% | 33% | $17,283 | $7,607 |
| $76,500 or above | 25% | 26% | 27% | $7,413 | $3,931 |
| $77,000 or above | 20% | 21% | 22% | $9,107 | $6,174 |
| $77,500 or above | 17% | 18% | 17% | $7,848 | $3,720 |
| $78,000 or above | 12% | 14% | 15% | $14,165 | $10,413 |
| $78,500 or above | 10% | 11% | 25% | $4,396 | $2,312 |
| $79,000 or above | 7% | 9% | 9% | $19,435 | $6,755 |
| $79,500 or above | 5% | 7% | 5% | $6,744 | $6,392 |
| $80,000 or above | 4% | 5% | 4% | $18,280 | $9,311 |
| $80,500 or above | 3% | 5% | 5% | $3,576 | $3,351 |
| $81,000 or above | 2% | 4% | 5% | $5,967 | $5,331 |
| $81,500 or above | 2% | 4% | 4% | $3,349 | $2,617 |
| $82,000 or above | 1% | 3% | 3% | $1,377 | $1,066 |
| $82,500 or above | 1% | 3% | 2% | $372 | $372 |
| $83,000 or above | 0% | 3% | 2% | $477 | $477 |
| $83,500 or above | 0% | 1% | 2% | $725 | $725 |

## What Defines the April 2024 Bitcoin Halving Cycle?

2016 Halving Price Increase | 286% over 12 months [[^]](https://soranauts.com/timing-the-crypto-market-insights-into-bull-cycles) |
2020 Halving Price Increase | 274% over 12 months [[^]](https://soranauts.com/timing-the-crypto-market-insights-into-bull-cycles) |
Current Cycle Unique Feature | All-time high reached before halving [[^]](https://research.kaiko.com/insights/bitcoins-halving-anniversary-this-time-was-different) |

**The 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle shows unique pre-halving characteristics**

The 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle shows unique pre-halving characteristics. This cycle notably reached an all-time high before the halving event itself, marking a first in Bitcoin's history [[^]](https://research.kaiko.com/insights/bitcoins-halving-anniversary-this-time-was-different). This unprecedented "front-running" of the halving is attributed to the entry of new **market** participants, particularly institutional investors, facilitated by the introduction of spot ETFs in the U.S. [[^]](https://research.kaiko.com/insights/bitcoins-halving-anniversary-this-time-was-different). This early price action suggests a potential acceleration or fundamental shift in **market** dynamics, implying an acceleration of early-cycle demand rather than a simple deceleration or lengthening of the overall cycle [[^]](https://research.kaiko.com/insights/bitcoins-halving-anniversary-this-time-was-different).

Historically, halvings lead to substantial post-event price appreciation. Bitcoin halving events have typically been followed by significant price appreciation, with bull **market** peaks occurring approximately 518 to 546 days after the halving [[^]](https://fractalcycles.com/guides/bitcoin-halving-cycle). For example, the 2016 halving saw a **286%** price increase over the subsequent 12 months, and the 2020 halving resulted in a **274%** increase in the year following the event [[^]](https://soranauts.com/timing-the-crypto-**market**-insights-into-bull-cycles). While the full 22-24 month price trajectory post-April 2024 is yet to unfold, the current cycle's initial phase has already demonstrated an accelerated price discovery relative to these historical patterns [[^]](https://research.kaiko.com/insights/bitcoins-halving-anniversary-this-time-was-different).

## What are the latest market expectations for Federal Funds and Bitcoin?

Implied Federal Funds Rate Q2 2026 | Specific value not available from provided research, derived from 30-day Federal Funds Futures contracts [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZQM26) |
Bitcoin-10Y Treasury Yield Correlation | Specific historical data for quarterly performance correlation not present in research [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/resilience-bitcoin-rising-10y-treasury-yields-macro-narrative-2601/) |
Federal Funds Rate Calculation Method | 100 minus the futures contract price [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html) |

**The implied Federal Funds Rate for Q2 2026 is based on specific futures contracts**

The implied Federal Funds Rate for Q2 2026 is based on specific futures contracts. This rate is derived from the pricing of 30-day Federal Funds Futures contracts, such as the June 2026 (ZQM26) futures contract, which reflects **market** expectations for the effective federal funds rate during that month [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZQM26). The calculation involves subtracting the futures contract price from 100 to determine the implied rate [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html). For instance, a contract trading at 94.85 would indicate an implied rate of **5.15%** (100 minus 94.85). Although sources like CME Group provide live quotes for these contracts [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html), the specific current price for the June 2026 contract was not available in the provided research, therefore precluding a precise statement of the implied rate.

Bitcoin's correlation with Treasury yields is an evolving area of analysis. The relationship between Bitcoin's quarterly performance and the direction of the US 10-Year Treasury yield is an area of ongoing study concerning macroeconomic indicators [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/resilience-bitcoin-rising-10y-treasury-yields-macro-narrative-2601/). One source discusses the 'resilience of Bitcoin amid rising 10Y Treasury Yields,' indicating that Bitcoin's behavior relative to traditional macro assets is evolving [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/resilience-bitcoin-rising-10y-treasury-yields-macro-narrative-2601/). Nevertheless, the provided research does not contain specific historical data, statistical coefficients, or a detailed analysis to address the correlation between Bitcoin's quarterly performance and the direction of the US 10-Year Treasury yield over the two preceding quarters.

## Are Bitcoin ETF Projections and G7 Retail Approvals on Track?

Projected US Spot Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Net Flow | $21.3 billion (by year-end 2025) [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-spot-etf-net-inflows-hit-21-3-billion-in-2025-final-tally-from-farside-investors) |
G7 Regulator Approval for Retail Bitcoin Access | Approved by UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/uk-fca-approves-bitcoin-etf-major-milestone-for-crypto-investors-in-2025) |
UK Retail Access to Crypto-backed ETNs | May 28, 2024 [[^]](https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-opens-retail-access-crypto-etns) |

**US spot Bitcoin ETFs project substantial cumulative net inflows by 2025**

US spot Bitcoin ETFs project substantial cumulative net inflows by 2025. By the end of 2025, cumulative net flows into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs are projected to reach approximately **$21.3** billion since their inception [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-spot-etf-net-inflows-hit-21-3-billion-in-2025-final-tally-from-farside-investors). This projection signifies considerable investor interest and investment within the United States' digital asset **market**, positioning it as a crucial indicator for the asset class's overall growth.

The UK's FCA approved retail access to Bitcoin-linked investment products. A significant global regulatory development has occurred with the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), a primary G7 regulator, approving a similar spot Bitcoin investment product for retail investors [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/uk-fca-approves-bitcoin-etf-major-milestone-for-crypto-investors-in-2025). The FCA granted retail access to crypto-backed Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) on May 28, 2024 [[^]](https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-opens-retail-access-crypto-etns). These ETNs enable retail investors to gain indirect exposure to Bitcoin, while being subject to specific consumer protections [[^]](https://adviserservices.fidelity.co.uk/news-insights/financial-advisor-insights/press-releases/fidelity-internationals-bitcoin-etp-approved-by-fca-for-retail-access/). This achievement confirms that a major G7 economy has already provided regulated retail access to Bitcoin-linked investment products well in advance of the year-end 2025 deadline.

## What Do Long-Dated Bitcoin Options Expiring in 2025-2026 Reveal?

Dec 2025 Options Open Interest | Over $20 billion (Deribit) [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-options-expiry-year-volatility-navigating-risk-opportunity-december-2025-2512/) |
March 2026 Options Expiry | $14 billion (Deribit) [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet) |
2026 Deep OTM Puts Open Interest | $191 million (Bitcoin) [[^]](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/deep-out-of-the-money-bitcoin-put-options-for-2026-see-high-activity/) |

**Bitcoin's December 2025 Deribit options show significant open interest and volatility**

Bitcoin's December 2025 Deribit options show significant open interest and volatility. For this expiry, total open interest exceeds **$20** billion [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-options-expiry-year-volatility-navigating-risk-opportunity-december-2025-2512/), contributing to a larger year-end total options expiry on Deribit of up to **$28.5** billion [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-volatility-impact-deribit-28-5-billion-options-expiry-2512/). Major institutional hedging or target levels for call options are concentrated at strike prices of **$70,000** and **$75,000,** with additional buying interest observed at the **$100,000** strike [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/). Conversely, put options indicate key downside protection levels, with the highest concentration of open interest at the **$50,000** and **$40,000** strike prices [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-options-expiry-year-volatility-navigating-risk-opportunity-december-2025-2512/). The implied volatility for these long-dated options remains elevated, suggesting **market** expectations for continued price fluctuations [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-december-2025-deribit-options-expiry-assessing-risk-max-pain-positioning-volatility-2511/).

March 2026 options on Deribit and CME reflect growing longer-term institutional interest. Deribit anticipates a substantial Bitcoin options expiry in March 2026 valued at **$14** billion, with the **$75,000** strike price acting as a significant "price magnet" due to its high concentration of open interest [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet). Furthermore, deep out-of-the-money (OTM) Bitcoin put options for 2026 show a distinct trend, commanding **$191** million in open interest, predominantly concentrated at very low strike prices such as **$30,000** and **$25,000** [[^]](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/deep-out-of-the-money-bitcoin-put-options-for-2026-see-high-activity/). This concentration suggests either hedging against extreme downside scenarios or speculative plays on high volatility over the longer term [[^]](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/deep-out-of-the-money-bitcoin-put-options-for-2026-see-high-activity/). On the CME, activity in longer-dated Bitcoin options, including December 2025 and March 2026 expiries, has increased, indicating growing institutional engagement [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2026/bitcoin-options-volatility-spikes-and-recovery-signals.html). While specific strike price concentrations for these expiries are not detailed for CME, there has been a general pick-up in volume and open interest, accompanied by recent spikes in implied volatility around significant **market** events [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2026/bitcoin-options-volatility-spikes-and-recovery-signals.html).

## How Does Bitcoin Halving Impact Security and SHA-256 Strength?

Block Reward Post-Halving | 3.125 BTC per block [[^]](https://micah-warren.ghost.io/bitcoins-security-budget-in-2026/) |
SHA-256 Vulnerability Risk | Not projected before 2027 [[^]](https://dl.dod.cyber.mil/wp-content/uploads/pki-pke/pdf/unclass-memo_dodcryptoalgorithms.pdf) |
Transaction Fees Importance | Increasingly vital for security budget [[^]](https://micah-warren.ghost.io/bitcoins-security-budget-in-2026/) |

**Bitcoin's security budget faces challenges and shifts post-April 2024 halving**

Bitcoin's security budget faces challenges and shifts post-April 2024 halving. The total miner revenue, which forms the network's security budget, saw a reduction in the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block following the April 2024 halving [[^]](https://micah-warren.ghost.io/bitcoins-security-budget-in-2026/). To maintain or increase total miner revenue in USD after this event, a significant increase in Bitcoin's price or a substantial rise in transaction fees is required [[^]](https://micah-warren.ghost.io/bitcoins-security-budget-in-2026/). This situation creates a "squeeze on miners" [[^]](https://www.spark.money/research/bitcoin-mining-economics-2026). However, optimistic scenarios for 2026 frequently project considerable Bitcoin price appreciation, expected to compensate for the reduced block subsidy [[^]](https://www.spark.money/research/bitcoin-mining-economics-2026). Consequently, transaction fees are anticipated to play an increasingly vital role in sustaining the network's security budget [[^]](https://micah-warren.ghost.io/bitcoins-security-budget-in-2026/).

SHA-256 currently lacks any publicly disclosed, credible vulnerabilities before 2027. There is no credible, publicly-disclosed vulnerability in the SHA-256 encryption algorithm that national security agencies or leading cryptographic institutions project to pose a risk before 2027 [[^]](https://dl.dod.cyber.mil/wp-content/uploads/pki-pke/pdf/unclass-memo_dodcryptoalgorithms.pdf). The United States Department of Defense (DoD) continues to list SHA-256 as an approved hash function for Secret and below classifications, reaffirming its current robustness [[^]](https://dl.dod.cyber.mil/wp-content/uploads/pki-pke/pdf/unclass-memo_dodcryptoalgorithms.pdf). While a strategic shift towards Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) is ongoing, involving NIST standards finalization and enterprise migration guides extending through 2026, these efforts are proactive measures against future theoretical threats from large-scale quantum computers [[^]](https://guptadeepak.com/post-quantum-cryptography-for-authentication-the-enterprise-migration-guide-2026/). These initiatives aim to future-proof cryptographic systems but do not imply that SHA-256 is susceptible to breakage by 2027 using currently known methods or even near-term quantum computing capabilities [[^]](https://guptadeepak.com/post-quantum-cryptography-for-authentication-the-enterprise-migration-guide-2026/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 17, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 24, 2026
- **Closes:** April 17, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBTCD-26APR1408-T79799.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1408-T79699.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1408-T79599.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1408-T79499.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1408-T79399.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.