# Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT? On Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT Updated: April 16, 2026 Category: Crypto Tags: Hourly BTC HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-16-2026-at-5pm-edt/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Bitcoin's price to be **$64,000** or above on April 16, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced massive institutional inflows through Q1 2026.** - Bitcoin miners significantly reduced selling, entering an accumulation phase. - Strong buying pressure and reduced supply are observed for Bitcoin. - Deribit Bitcoin options consistently demonstrate a notable put skew. - Comprehensive US crypto **market** structure bills previously failed to pass. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.4%** slightly exceeds **market**'s 99.0c **probability**, citing strong institutional ETF inflows and miner accumulation. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 99.0% | 99.4% | Model higher by 0.4pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 99.4% (Yes) - Market Probability: 99.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +0.4pp - Expected Return: +0.4% - R-Score: 0.05 - Total Volume: $897,911.08 - 24h Volume: $893,032.34 - Open Interest: $413,783.72 - Expiration: April 16, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market's price has been stable, exhibiting a sideways trend within an extremely narrow band between 98.0% and 99.0%. The chart shows a single, minor upward movement from its starting price of 98.0% to the current 99.0%. Given the absence of any specific news or contextual information, the direct cause for this one-percent shift is not apparent from the data provided. The consistently high probability indicates a very strong market sentiment, with participants pricing the outcome as a near certainty. Trading volume is exceptionally low, with only three contracts traded in total. This minimal activity suggests a lack of broad market participation and conviction behind the current price. While the probability implies a strong consensus, the low liquidity means the price has been set by a very small number of trades and could be sensitive to new activity. The price range itself defines the key levels, with 98.0% acting as a temporary support and 99.0% as the immediate resistance, though these levels are not well-established due to the thin volume. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 16, 2026, is above $74,999.99; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market closes and resolves on April 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, with payouts projected shortly after. The official and final value is determined by averaging 60 BRTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## How did US Spot Bitcoin ETF flows trend from 2025 to 2026? Cumulative Net Flow (Jan 2025-Mar 2026) | $228.926 billion [[^]](https://bitcoinnewsoffice.com/etf) | Total Net Inflows (Full Year 2025) | $229.426 billion [[^]](https://www.cointech2u.com/2025-full-year-us-bitcoin-spot-etf-total-net-inflows-229-426-billion/) | Total Net Outflows (Q1 2026) | $500 million [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/en-GB/news/999024) | **For the period between January 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated significant net inflows** For the period between January 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated significant net inflows. These ETFs collectively experienced a cumulative net inflow of **$228.926** billion. This overall figure includes substantial net inflows of **$229.426** billion recorded throughout the entirety of 2025 [[^]](https://www.cointech2u.com/2025-full-year-us-bitcoin-spot-etf-total-net-inflows-229-426-billion/). Early 2026 reversed the trend, but March showed a strong rebound. The trend shifted in the first quarter of 2026, with these ETFs registering **$500** million in total net outflows [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/en-GB/news/999024). Despite these initial quarterly outflows, March 2026 marked a notable turnaround, achieving **$1.3** billion in inflows, which was the first monthly gain of 2026 [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:8a7272869094b:0-bitcoin-etfs-post-1-3b-in-march-inflows-first-monthly-gain-of-2026/). **Market** trends diverged between 2025's growth and 2026's volatility. Comparing these flows to the period immediately following their January 2024 approval, the massive inflows throughout 2025, nearing **$230** billion, highlight a phase of robust growth and sustained institutional interest post-launch [[^]](https://www.cointech2u.com/2025-full-year-us-bitcoin-spot-etf-total-net-inflows-229-426-billion/). The subsequent net outflows observed in Q1 2026, even with a strong rebound in March, indicate a potentially more volatile or mixed flow environment compared to the consistent bullish trend seen in 2025 [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:8a7272869094b:0-bitcoin-etfs-post-1-3b-in-march-inflows-first-monthly-gain-of-2026/). ## What Was Bitcoin Miners' Net Position Change in Q4 2025-Q1 2026? Miner Net Position | Net accumulation or significantly reduced selling (2026 [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows)) | BTC Absorbed by Accumulation Addresses | 67,000 BTC [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:62d22be96094b:0-bitcoin-accumulation-addresses-absorb-67k-btc-as-miner-led-selling-falls-data/) | Period of Shift | Q4 2025 into Q1 2026 (Reports from 2026 [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows)) | **Bitcoin miners significantly reduced selling, entering an accumulation phase** Bitcoin miners significantly reduced selling, entering an accumulation phase. From Q4 2025 into Q1 2026, Bitcoin miners predominantly shifted into a net accumulation phase, characterized by a substantial slowdown in miner-led selling after the 2024 halving event. This period indicated a clear movement away from net distribution towards net accumulation [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows). On-chain data confirms miners retained or acquired more Bitcoin. Analysis from this timeframe shows that accumulation addresses absorbed 67,000 BTC, coinciding with a reduction in miner-led selling [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:62d22be96094b:0-bitcoin-accumulation-addresses-absorb-67k-btc-as-miner-led-selling-falls-data/). This behavior suggests a positive or less negative 'Miner Net Position Change' when observed over a 90-day moving average, implying that miners were either retaining more of their mined Bitcoin or actively acquiring more, contributing to a net positive sentiment regarding miner holdings on the blockchain [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows). ## What Does Deribit's Bitcoin Options Put Skew Reveal? Typical Skew for Long-Dated Options | Put skew [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC) | Put Skew Definition | IV of 25-delta OTM puts > IV of 25-delta OTM calls [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC) | Institutional Demand Indication | Demand for downside protection [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC) | **Bitcoin options on Deribit consistently show a notable put skew [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC)** Bitcoin options on Deribit consistently show a notable put skew [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC). This **market** phenomenon, particularly evident for long-dated expiries such as December 2025, indicates that the implied volatility of 25-delta out-of-the-money put options is typically higher than that of comparable 25-delta out-of-the-money call options [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC). Financial analytics platforms confirm this dynamic across various BTC options expiries, revealing a "Put Skew Term Structure" where puts consistently command a premium, especially for longer maturities [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC). This persistent put skew reflects institutional demand for downside protection [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC). For long-dated Bitcoin options, including those expiring in December 2025, a higher implied volatility for puts relative to calls suggests institutional investors prioritize paying a premium for downside protection over equivalent upside exposure [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC). This sustained demand for hedging against potential significant price drops highlights a cautious **market** sentiment and the implementation of long-term risk management strategies, rather than an aggressive pursuit of extreme upside gains [[^]](https://pandabull.io/iv_surfaces/deribit/BTC). ## By Q1 2026, what percentage of the top 100 public **Key takeaway** Research data not available. ## What Is the Current Status of US Crypto Market Structure Bills? FIT21 (H.R.4763) Status | Passed House, did not become law in 118th Congress [[^]](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=409277) | CLARITY Act (H.R.3633) Status | Introduced for 119th Congress (2025-2026) [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/text) | H.R.3633 Final Status | Undetermined, 119th Congress has not convened [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/text) | **The previous comprehensive crypto bill did not become law** The previous comprehensive crypto bill did not become law. The 'Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act' (FIT21), designated as H.R.4763 during the 118th United States Congress, passed the House of Representatives with bipartisan support [[^]](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=409277). However, it did not advance through the Senate and consequently expired without becoming law at the conclusion of the 118th Congress [[^]](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=409277). A successor legislative effort, the 'Digital Asset **Market** Clarity Act of 2025' (H.R.3633), also known as the CLARITY Act, has been introduced for the 119th Congress (2025-2026) as a comprehensive bill intended to establish a **market** structure and provide regulatory clarity for digital assets [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/text). H.R.3633's legislative future remains uncertain by 2027. As the 119th Congress is scheduled to begin its session in January 2025, no legislative actions beyond its introduction have yet occurred for H.R.3633 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/text). Given that the 119th Congress has not yet convened and its legislative process will span from January 2025 to January 2027, the final legislative status of H.R.3633 or any other comprehensive U.S. crypto **market** structure bill by the end of its session in January 2027 cannot be definitively predicted or determined at this time [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/text). For a bill to become law, it must pass both chambers of Congress in identical form and then be signed by the President, all within the lifespan of the 119th Congress [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/text). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** April 16, 2026 - **Expiration:** April 23, 2026 - **Closes:** April 16, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-feb-5-2026-at-11am-est/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXBTCD-26APR1614-T83299.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1614-T83199.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1614-T83099.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1614-T82999.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1614-T82899.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.