# Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026 at 11pm EDT?

On Apr 16, 2026 at 11pm EDT

Updated: April 17, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: Hourly
BTC

HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-16-2026-at-11pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing for Bitcoin reaching **$64,600** or above by April 16, 2026, at **99.3%** **model** versus **0.0%** **market**, suggesting a strong positive outlook driven by sustained institutional demand and historical post-halving recovery.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Sustained institutional demand via US spot Bitcoin ETFs.** - Historical trends show post-halving recovery after April 2024.
- The GENIUS Act of 2025 provides regulatory clarity for digital assets.
- Bullish options **market** positioning evident from substantial Deribit open interest.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.3%** **probability** versus 0c **market** price creates a +99.3 percentage point gap for Bitcoin.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 0.0% | 99.3% | Model higher by 99.3pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 99.3% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +99.3pp
- Expected Return: +0.0%
- R-Score: 14.18
- Total Volume: $263,153.37
- 24h Volume: $152,052.4
- Open Interest: $184,461.38

- Expiration: April 17, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 11 PM EDT on April 16, 2026, is $74,600.00 or above. If this average is $74,599.99 or below, the market resolves to "No." The market closes and resolves at 11 PM EDT on April 16, 2026, with the official value being the average of 60 BRTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## What Were the Net Inflows for US Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2025?

US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Inflow (2025) | Approximately $21.3 billion [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-spot-etf-net-inflows-hit-21-3-billion-in-2025-final-tally-from-farside-investors) |
GBTC Net Outflows (2025) | Approximately $3.7 billion [[^]](https://www.itiger.com/news/1137346602) |
Institutional Demand | Continued to support overall positive flows despite individual ETF outflows [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/bitcoin-etfs-gain-as-institutional-demand-continues-to-support-flows-200677973) |

**US spot Bitcoin ETFs show sustained institutional demand**

US spot Bitcoin ETFs show sustained institutional demand. Cumulative net flow trends for US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs through Q4 2025 indicate a sustained and resilient level of institutional demand. This persisted even after the Bitcoin halving event and through a period potentially encompassing a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle. Throughout 2025, these ETFs collectively attracted significant capital, demonstrating ongoing investor interest in gaining Bitcoin exposure via regulated financial products [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/bitcoin-etfs-gain-as-institutional-demand-continues-to-support-flows-200677973). This consistent accumulation suggests that institutions increasingly perceive Bitcoin as a viable asset class, with its appeal either independent of or potentially enhanced by evolving macroeconomic conditions.

ETFs attracted significant capital despite fund variations. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced total net inflows of approximately **$21.3** billion throughout 2025, according to a final tally from Farside Investors [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-spot-etf-net-inflows-hit-21-3-billion-in-2025-final-tally-from-farside-investors). While the overall **market** trend remained positive, individual fund performances showed variation; for instance, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) registered estimated net outflows of **$3.7** billion in 2025 [[^]](https://www.itiger.com/news/1137346602). However, substantial inflows into other newly launched ETFs more than compensated for these outflows from certain products. The **market**'s ability to absorb such redemptions from legacy products while still achieving significant net positive inflows overall highlights the robust and sustainable nature of institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure, driven by new capital entering the **market** [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/bitcoin-etfs-gain-as-institutional-demand-continues-to-support-flows-200677973). These trends indicate a growing integration of Bitcoin into institutional portfolios, reflecting a long-term strategic interest in the asset.

## How Did The 2024 Bitcoin Halving Impact Mining Metrics?

Initial Hash Rate Drop | Approximately 17% in the first week after April 2024 halving [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-hashrate-sees-sharpest-post-171757581.html) |
Hash Rate Recovery Timeline | Historically trends upward within 18 months post-halving [[^]](https://hashrateindex.com/blog/the-halving-since-the-halving-growing-bitcoin-network-difficulty/) |
Puell Multiple Trend | Initial dip followed by recovery and high profitability [[^]](https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/2024-bitcoin-halving-one-year-later) |

**The April 2024 halving significantly reduced the Bitcoin network's hash rate**

The April 2024 halving significantly reduced the Bitcoin network's hash rate. This event led to an immediate contraction of approximately **17%** in the first week, marking the sharpest post-halving drop observed since 2020 and a more pronounced decline compared to earlier cycles [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-hashrate-sees-sharpest-post-171757581.html). Historically, following an initial dip as less efficient operations become unprofitable [[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/insights/anticipated-post-halving-hash-rate-correction/), the hash rate consistently recovers and trends upward within 18 months post-halving. This recovery is typically fueled by the deployment of more efficient mining hardware and an appreciating Bitcoin price, a pattern that is also anticipated for the current cycle [[^]](https://hashrateindex.com/blog/the-halving-since-the-halving-growing-bitcoin-network-difficulty/).

Miner profitability metrics also follow a predictable post-halving trend. The Puell Multiple, a metric assessing miner revenue by comparing the daily issuance value of Bitcoin to its 365-day moving average [[^]](https://www.celestial-strategy.com/insights/puell-multiple), characteristically dips immediately after halvings due to the reduction in block rewards [[^]](https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/2024-bitcoin-halving-one-year-later). This initial decline can signal a period often referred to as 'miner capitulation' [[^]](https://www.celestial-strategy.com/insights/puell-multiple). However, as Bitcoin's price typically appreciates in the subsequent months, the Puell Multiple historically recovers, often reaching high profitability zones within the 18-month period [[^]](https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/2024-bitcoin-halving-one-year-later). This consistent cycle of an initial decline followed by a recovery in miner profitability is expected to repeat after the April 2024 halving.

## How Does the GENIUS Act of 2025 Regulate Digital Assets?

Legislation | GENIUS Act of 2025 (Public Law 119-27, S.1582) [[^]](https://www.lw.com/en/insights/the-genius-act-of-2025-stablecoin-legislation-adopted-in-the-us) |
Payment Stablecoin Reserve | 100% reserves [[^]](https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/fin-tech/1676744/licensed-to-mint-inside-the-genius-acts-game-changing-rules) |
Institutional Custody Authority | National banks and federal savings associations authorized for crypto-asset custody [[^]](https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2025/nr-occ-2025-42.html) |

**By the end of 2025, the United States enacted a comprehensive stablecoin regulatory framework**

By the end of 2025, the United States enacted a comprehensive stablecoin regulatory framework. The GENIUS Act of 2025 (Public Law 119-27, S.1582) established this framework for digital assets, primarily focusing on stablecoin issuance [[^]](https://www.lw.com/en/insights/the-genius-act-of-2025-stablecoin-legislation-adopted-in-the-us). This act introduces a robust regulatory regime for "payment stablecoins," mandating that issuers maintain **100%** reserve requirements fully backed by highly liquid assets [[^]](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/regulated-payment-stablecoins-become-reality-us). The framework also includes specific licensing requirements for stablecoin minting, with the goal of enabling regulated payment stablecoins in the U.S. by December 2025 [[^]](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/regulated-payment-stablecoins-become-reality-us).

The new framework significantly impacts institutional digital asset custody solutions. The GENIUS Act's mandated **100%** reserve requirement directly influences the infrastructure and operational practices necessary for holding and verifying these reserves [[^]](https://www.lorum.com/article/genius-act-reserves-custody-infrastructure). Adding to this regulatory clarity, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) confirmed in 2025 that national banks and federal savings associations are authorized to engage in crypto-asset custody and execution services [[^]](https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2025/nr-occ-2025-42.html). This dual development of legislative and regulatory clarity enhances the legitimacy and operational scope for regulated financial institutions to provide secure and compliant custody services for digital assets, especially for the newly regulated payment stablecoins [[^]](https://www.lorum.com/article/genius-act-reserves-custody-infrastructure).

## How Do On-Chain Analytics Track Old Bitcoin Supply Movement?

Glassnode Dormant Supply Metrics | "Old Supply Net Position Change", "Ancient Supply Last Active 5yr+" [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/1c974876-6bbf-4756-416a-614af86e72b1) |
Old Bitcoin Supply Movement | Transfers to Bitcoin ETFs observed [[^]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/fdb09-old-bitcoin-supply-moving-into-etfs-three-waves) |
Overall Bitcoin Exchange Reserves | Below 2.7 million BTC [[^]](http://gate.ac/blog/101447/btc-exchange-reserves-below-2-7-million-supply-shock-whale-accumulation-analysis) |

**On-chain analytics platforms help monitor the dynamics of dormant Bitcoin supply**

On-chain analytics platforms help monitor the dynamics of dormant Bitcoin supply. Tools like Glassnode's "Old Supply Net Position Change" track the aggregate shifts in Bitcoin held by these long-inactive addresses, indicating whether accumulation or spending is occurring [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/1c974876-6bbf-4756-416a-614af86e72b1). Additionally, the "Ancient Supply Last Active 5yr+" metric quantifies the total Bitcoin supply untouched for five years or more, while "Ancient Supply Spent Volume 5yr+" identifies movements of these long-dormant coins [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btc-spent-ancient). Although specific numerical figures for the net change in 7+ year dormant supply are not detailed in the available research, the movement of old Bitcoin supply is an observed trend, with some older holdings notably transferring into Bitcoin ETFs [[^]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/fdb09-old-bitcoin-supply-moving-into-etfs-three-waves).

Evidence for old supply moving to exchanges during specific rallies is inconclusive. Glassnode's "Bitcoin Long-Term Holder to Exchanges (Volume) All Exchanges" metric helps identify when experienced investors transfer their holdings to exchanges, often signaling a potential intent to sell [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/transactions.TransfersVolumeLthToExchangesSum?a=BTC). However, the provided research does not offer explicit data for old supply moving to exchanges specifically during price rallies exceeding **$100,000**. A news report suggests a "**$100**K Mirage," implying that Bitcoin's rally may not be supported by robust on-chain strength, which could indicate limited long-term holder accumulation or even distribution [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:025804071094b:0-the-100k-mirage-bitcoin-s-rally-not-backed-by-on-chain-strength/). Moreover, overall Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped below 2.7 million, reflecting a broader trend of Bitcoin moving off exchanges rather than accumulating there [[^]](http://gate.ac/blog/101447/btc-exchange-reserves-below-2-7-million-supply-shock-whale-accumulation-analysis).

## What is Bitcoin Options Open Interest for Key Deribit Expiries?

December 2025 Expiry Value | $28.5 billion [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-volatility-impact-deribit-28-5-billion-options-expiry-2512/) |
March 2026 Expiry Value | $13 billion and $14 billion [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet) |
Total Bitcoin Derivatives Open Interest | $43.75 billion [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-43-75b-open-interest-call-dominance-2603/) |

**The December 2025 expiry on Deribit involved a substantial Bitcoin options event, valued at approximately $28.5 billion [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-volatility-impact-deribit-28-5-billion-options-expiry-2512/)**

The December 2025 expiry on Deribit involved a substantial Bitcoin options event, valued at approximately **$28.5** billion [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-volatility-impact-deribit-28-5-billion-options-expiry-2512/). Leading up to this significant expiry, Bitcoin was observed nearing a potential breakout from the **$85,000**-**$90,000** range, indicative of a possible increase in volatility as **market** participants adjusted their positions [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/24/bitcoin-nears-breakout-from-the-usd85-000-usd90-000-range-as-options-expiry-looms). However, the research did not provide specific open interest or implied volatility data for call options with strike prices exceeding **$150,000** or put options below **$50,000** for this period.

March 2026 expiry focused on **$75,000** amidst call dominance. Similarly, the March 2026 expiry on Deribit featured a considerable Bitcoin options expiry, estimated between **$13** billion and **$14** billion [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet). For this period, a notable concentration of open interest indicated **$75,000** as a "price magnet," with traders reportedly accumulating bets around this particular strike price [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet). While the broader Bitcoin derivatives **market** demonstrated overall call dominance and total open interest surged to **$43.75** billion [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-43-75b-open-interest-call-dominance-2603/), the provided sources do not specify the open interest or implied volatility for call options above **$150,000** or put options below **$50,000** for the March 2026 expiry.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 17, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 24, 2026
- **Closes:** April 17, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBTCD-26APR1622-T83299.99: NO (Apr 17, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1622-T83199.99: NO (Apr 17, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1622-T83099.99: NO (Apr 17, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1622-T82999.99: NO (Apr 17, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1622-T82899.99: NO (Apr 17, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.