# Bitcoin price on Apr 15, 2026 at 3pm EDT? On Apr 15, 2026 at 3pm EDT Updated: April 15, 2026 Category: Crypto Tags: Hourly BTC HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-15-2026-at-3pm-edt/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing: Bitcoin price on Apr 15, 2026 at 3pm EDT at **$65,100** or above at **98.8%** **model** vs **0.0%** **market**, suggesting a significant undervaluation of this outcome by the **market**. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Federal Reserve SOMA holdings projected to contract substantially by Q1 2026.** - Bitcoin Long-Term Holders showed net supply decreases through January 2026. - SEC approved options trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs ahead of Q4 2025. - Bitcoin's 90-day average hashrate experienced overall growth during 2025. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Model projects 98.8% for Bitcoin's price amid downward pressure, vs.** **market** at 0c (**0%** **probability**, 0.0x payout). ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 0.0% | 98.8% | Model higher by 98.8pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 98.8% (Yes) - Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +98.8pp - Expected Return: +0.0% - R-Score: 14.11 - Total Volume: $561,329 - 24h Volume: $524,981 - Open Interest: $241,980 - Expiration: April 15, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics No historical price data available. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to "Yes" if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 3 PM EDT on April 15, 2026, is above $74,399.99; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opens at 2:00 PM EDT and closes at 3:00 PM EDT on April 15, 2026, with a projected payout by 3:06 PM EDT. The official value is the average of 60 BRTI prices collected in the minute prior to expiration, as verified by CF Benchmarks. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## How Much Will Federal Reserve SOMA Holdings Contract by Q1 2026? Peak SOMA Holdings | Approximately $8.965 trillion (April 2022) [[^]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-states/system-open-market-account-holdings-of-domestic-securities/system-open-market-account-soma-holdings-of-domestic-securities) | Projected SOMA Holdings | $5.975 trillion (Q1 2026 median forecast) [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2024/dec-2024-spd-results.pdf) | Expected Contraction | Approximately $2.990 trillion or 33% (from 2022 peak to Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-states/system-open-market-account-holdings-of-domestic-securities/system-open-market-account-soma-holdings-of-domestic-securities) | **Primary dealers forecast lower SOMA holdings by Q1 2026** Primary dealers forecast lower SOMA holdings by Q1 2026. The consensus forecast among primary dealers and **market** participants projects the Federal Reserve's System Open **Market** Account (SOMA) holdings to be significantly lower in Q1 2026 compared to their 2022 peak. Surveys conducted in late 2024 and early 2025 indicate a median forecast for total SOMA holdings in Q1 2026 ranging from approximately **$5.950** trillion to **$6.000** trillion [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2024/dec-2024-spd-results.pdf). Specifically, the December 2024 Survey of Primary Dealers reported a median forecast of **$5.975** trillion for SOMA holdings in the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2024/dec-2024-spd-results.pdf). SOMA holdings will significantly contract from their 2022 peak. This projected level represents a substantial contraction relative to the SOMA balance sheet's historical high. In April 2022, the Federal Reserve's SOMA holdings reached their peak at approximately **$8.965** trillion [[^]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-states/system-open-**market**-account-holdings-of-domestic-securities/system-open-**market**-account-soma-holdings-of-domestic-securities). Comparing the Q1 2026 forecast of **$5.975** trillion to this peak, the balance sheet is expected to contract by roughly **$2.990** trillion, which amounts to approximately **33%** [[^]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-states/system-open-**market**-account-holdings-of-domestic-securities/system-open-**market**-account-soma-holdings-of-domestic-securities). Balance sheet reduction should largely conclude by late 2025. Surveys further suggest that the Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) is generally expected to cease net asset sales by Q4 2025. At that point, SOMA holdings are estimated to be around **$5.900** trillion to **$5.950** trillion [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2024/dec-2024-spd-results.pdf). This indicates that by Q1 2026, the period of significant balance sheet reduction will have largely concluded, leaving SOMA holdings at a considerably lower and more restrictive level than observed during the expansive monetary policy period that ended in 2022. ## How Did Bitcoin Hashrate Evolve After the 2024 Halving? 2025 Mining Difficulty Increase | 35% (over 2025) [[^]](https://www.htx.com/news/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-rose-35-in-2025-data-shows-dsV6nUZp/) | Miner Profit Outlook | Profit crisis and industry shakeout (by early 2026) [[^]](https://nhash.net/blogs/news/bitcoin-mining-report-q1-2026) | 2026 Hashrate Growth Forecast | Significantly slower growth, potentially 2.9% decline [[^]](https://newsletter.blockwareintelligence.com/p/bitcoin-hash-rate-down-29-2026-on) | **Bitcoin's 90-day average hashrate experienced overall growth in 2025** Bitcoin's 90-day average hashrate experienced overall growth in 2025. Following the April 2024 halving, mining difficulty rose by **35%** [[^]](https://www.htx.com/news/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-rose-35-in-2025-data-shows-dsV6nUZp/). This growth reflects ongoing efforts by some miners to secure the network and capitalize on potential future price appreciation, despite the immediate impact of reduced block rewards post-halving [[^]](https://aminagroup.com/research/post-halving-bitcoin-miners-landscape/). Growth moderated significantly due to severe profitability challenges for miners. The environment was described as "standing on soft ground" [[^]](https://www.hashrateindex.com/blog/hashrate-index-2025-bitcoin-mining-year-in-review-standing-on-soft-ground/), leading to a "profit crisis" and "industry shakeout" by early 2026 [[^]](https://nhash.net/blogs/news/bitcoin-mining-report-q1-2026). Consequently, the quarter-over-quarter growth trend became less consistently "sustained and strong" through the end of 2025, with heavy capital investment becoming more selective due to compressed profitability for less efficient operators [[^]](https://aminagroup.com/research/post-halving-bitcoin-miners-landscape/). Projections for 2026 further indicate a significant slowdown in hashrate growth, including a reported **2.9%** decline and being on pace for the slowest growth yet [[^]](https://newsletter.blockwareintelligence.com/p/bitcoin-hash-rate-down-29-2026-on), suggesting that strong growth was not consistently maintained through the latter half of 2025 due to mounting economic pressures on miners. ## When Did SEC Approve Spot Bitcoin ETF Options Trading? SEC Approval Date | November 2024 [[^]](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tech-tuesday-sec-approves-first-kind-options-spot-bitcoin-etf-nasdaq-ibit) | First Day Trading Volume | $2 billion [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/de/markets/2024/11/20/bitcoin-etf-options-attract-2b-on-day-one-shifting-btcs-market-structure) | Initial Approved ETF | iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) [[^]](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tech-tuesday-sec-approves-first-kind-options-spot-bitcoin-etf-nasdaq-ibit) | **The U.S** The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved options trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs ahead of Q4 2025. This regulatory clearance occurred in November 2024, enabling the listing and trading of these options [[^]](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tech-tuesday-sec-approves-first-kind-options-spot-bitcoin-etf-nasdaq-ibit). Following this approval, the Nasdaq Stock **Market** filed a proposed rule change to facilitate the trading of options on specific spot Bitcoin ETFs [[^]](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tech-tuesday-sec-approves-first-kind-options-spot-bitcoin-etf-nasdaq-ibit). Notably, options for the Nasdaq-listed iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) were among the first to receive approval and commence trading [[^]](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tech-tuesday-sec-approves-first-kind-options-spot-bitcoin-etf-nasdaq-ibit). Initial trading volume for Bitcoin ETF options was substantial, attracting significant **market** interest. On their first day of trading, options on spot Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT, recorded a notional volume of **$2** billion [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/de/markets/2024/11/20/bitcoin-etf-options-attract-2b-on-day-one-shifting-btcs-**market**-structure). This strong initial participation underscores the **market**'s enthusiasm. The introduction of these options is expected to enhance Bitcoin's **market** infrastructure by providing sophisticated hedging mechanisms and fostering deeper institutional engagement [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/de/markets/2024/11/20/bitcoin-etf-options-attract-2b-on-day-one-shifting-btcs-**market**-structure). As the raw research only provides first-day volume, the average daily notional volume for the first 90 days cannot be determined from the available information. ## Did Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Increase Supply After 2024 Halving? Timeframe of Analysis | Between 2024 Bitcoin halving and January 2026 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/28/long-term-bitcoin-holders-resume-selling-as-price-lags-behind-traditional-markets) | Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply Change | Net decrease due to heavy selling [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/28/long-term-bitcoin-holders-resume-selling-as-price-lags-behind-traditional-markets) | LTH Activity by January 28, 2026 | Resumed "heavy BTC selling" [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/28/long-term-bitcoin-holders-resume-selling-as-price-lags-behind-traditional-markets) | **Long-Term Holders experienced a net decrease in Bitcoin supply after the 2024 halving** Long-Term Holders experienced a net decrease in Bitcoin supply after the 2024 halving. Between the 2024 Bitcoin halving and January 2026, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) saw a net reduction in their Bitcoin supply. This change was primarily driven by significant selling activity, rather than accumulation, which contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin's price during this period [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/28/long-term-bitcoin-holders-resume-selling-as-price-lags-behind-traditional-markets). Significant LTH selling in early 2026 indicates a reduction in illiquid supply. By January 28, 2026, **market** analysis confirmed that Long-Term Holders had resumed substantial Bitcoin selling. This pattern of distribution by long-term investors suggests that these entities were offloading their holdings instead of increasing them. Such behavior signals a reduction in the illiquid supply typically held by long-term investors, contrasting sharply with a scenario of strong accumulation [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/28/long-term-bitcoin-holders-resume-selling-as-price-lags-behind-traditional-markets). Heavy LTH selling counteracted potential bullish support and added **market** pressure. The observed distribution by LTHs during this timeframe implies that Bitcoin's supply did not become more illiquid due to strong conviction from long-term holders. Instead, this selling likely counteracted the formation of a bullish price floor and potentially added to overall **market** sell pressure. This outcome is in direct contrast to the expectation that a substantial net increase in LTH supply would typically signal strong accumulation and a bullish **market** outlook [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/01/28/long-term-bitcoin-holders-resume-selling-as-price-lags-behind-traditional-markets). ## Are New US Regulations for Self-Custodial Wallets Expected by Mid-2025? FinCEN Proposed Rule (RIN 1506-AB64) | Targets "unhosted wallets" due to illicit finance concerns, requiring reporting and record-keeping since December 2020 [[^]](https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?RIN=1506-AB64&pubId=202410) | FinCEN Proposal Status (Spring 2025 Unified Agenda) | Next action listed as "undetermined," no specific timeline for implementation by mid-2025 [[^]](https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?RIN=1506-AB64&pubId=202504) | New Regulations for Self-Custodial Wallets/DeFi by Mid-2025 | No new proposals or definitive implementation timelines from FinCEN or SEC [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48883) | **FinCEN's existing unhosted wallet proposal lacks a clear implementation timeline** FinCEN's existing unhosted wallet proposal lacks a clear implementation timeline. The U.S. Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) previously issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM), RIN 1506-AB64, in December 2020. This proposal aims to regulate transactions involving "unhosted wallets," which are self-custodial wallets, by requiring banks and money services businesses (MSBs) to report certain transactions and maintain records. The stated rationale for these requirements includes concerns about illicit finance and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) [[^]](https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?RIN=1506-AB64&pubId=202410). However, according to the Spring 2025 Unified Agenda, which was published in April 2024, the "next action" for this specific FinCEN proposal is designated as "undetermined," indicating that there is no defined schedule for its implementation by mid-2025 [[^]](https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?RIN=1506-AB64&pubId=202504). No new targeted regulations are expected from FinCEN or SEC by mid-2025. Available research does not indicate any new proposals from either FinCEN or the SEC that specifically target self-custodial wallets or DeFi interaction protocols for implementation by mid-2025 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48883). While external letters concerning non-custodial wallet software have been submitted to the SEC's Crypto Task Force, these communications do not constitute formal SEC proposals [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/about/crypto-task-force/written-submission/ctf-written-input-crypto-policy-working-group-050525). Furthermore, a separate FinCEN NPRM addressing Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism Program and Suspicious Activity Report Filing Requirements for Registered Investment Advisers is scheduled for April 2026. This timeline falls outside the mid-2025 timeframe and the proposal does not specifically address self-custodial wallets or DeFi interaction protocols [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-04-10/html/2026-06963.htm). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** April 15, 2026 - **Expiration:** April 22, 2026 - **Closes:** April 15, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-feb-5-2026-at-11am-est/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXBTCD-26APR1514-T83799.99: NO (Apr 15, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1514-T83699.99: NO (Apr 15, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1514-T83599.99: NO (Apr 15, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1514-T83499.99: NO (Apr 15, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1514-T83399.99: NO (Apr 15, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.